Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen Tracking

by JackO Tue Jun 02, 2009 10:54 pm

Based on the data HitFix was provided, "Revenge of the Fallen" is on track to challenge "The Dark Knight's 5-day record of $203 million last summer.

http://www.hitfix.com/articles/2009-6-1-breaking-transformers-revenge-of-the-fallen-set-for-biggest-weekend-ever

Paramount is gonna call me screaming any moment. But rival studios are telling me they expect Transformers 2: Revenge Of The Fallen to open with a high of $175M for its 5-day opening from Wednesday, June 24 to Sunday, June 28. Because the sequel came onto tracking HUGE today.

http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/transformers-2-comes-onto-tracking-huge-will-5-day-weekend-be-closer-to-160m-than-175m/

by **BarcaRulz** Wed Jun 03, 2009 1:19 am

No doubting it will be huge. The only thing that remains to be seen is HOW huge it will be.

by brockman81 Wed Jun 03, 2009 2:16 am

That's what she said.

by BanksIsDaFuture Wed Jun 03, 2009 6:05 am

I think if they'd opened it on a Friday, it might've challenged the $158 record.

by **geezer9687** Wed Jun 03, 2009 6:33 am

If it did, I'd say its more a sign of how bad inflation has gotten over the past year than anything else.

by **Buscemi** Wed Jun 03, 2009 6:36 am

It won't break The Dark Knight's record. The Dark Knight had everything going for it (insane word of mouth, great cast, a sense of mystery involving the death of a lead actor which translated to morbid curiosity). Transformers has none of that and only has going for it the success of the first film.

Also, I see it dropping 60% in week two due to Ice Age (families) and Public Enemies (the ladies love Johnny Depp more than Shia).

by **Shrykespeare** Wed Jun 03, 2009 6:55 am

brockman81 wrote:That's what she said.

Ba doom-boom!

Buscemi wrote:It won't break The Dark Knight's record. The Dark Knight had everything going for it (insane word of mouth, great cast, a sense of mystery involving the death of a lead actor which translated to morbid curiosity). Transformers has none of that and only has going for it the success of the first film.

Also, I see it dropping 60% in week two due to Ice Age (families) and Public Enemies (the ladies love Johnny Depp more than Shia).

I agree with your first point, Boussh, but not your second. Guys in their late-teens-early-twenties will see Ice Age maybe once. But to see fighting robots and gratuitous ass-shots of Megan Fox? Several times. And though Depp may be higher up the Love-Meter than Shia, there's little doubt which of the two has had more box office success... yeah, Johnny had Pirates, and that series would have been nearly unwatchable without him, but other than that? Besides which, it's a Michael Mann film, which doesn't exactly spell kid-friendly to me.

by JackO Wed Jun 03, 2009 7:10 am

Don't forget. It's second weekend is the July 4th Holiday . . .

by **Buscemi** Wed Jun 03, 2009 7:24 am

Shryke, the male audience will be also sharply divided between Transformers and Public Enemies. One is a robot movie in its second week that's bound to disappoint. Another is Captain Jack Sparrow and Batman in the same movie, trying to kill each other. Though Public Enemies has a R rating, the coolness factor is up the wazoo and people should flock to it. Unless Universal short changes the ad campaign like they did with Drag Me To Hell.

Also, no one takes Megan Fox seriously as an actress. Who would pay eight dollars to see her in a movie when you can pay $2.95 to whack off to her in a magazine or for free on the Internet. You'll see what I mean when Jennifer's Body bombs in September.

by **geezer9687** Wed Jun 03, 2009 7:34 am

Shrykespeare wrote: gratuitous ass-shots of Megan Fox?

Buscemi wrote:One is a robot movie in its second week that's bound to disappoint.

Also, no one takes Megan Fox seriously as an actress. Who would pay eight dollars to see her in a movie when you can pay $2.95 to whack off to her in a magazine or for free on the Internet. You'll see what I mean when Jennifer's Body bombs in September.

Buscemi loves to think that he speaks for the entire movie going public, but I think its pretty safe to say that when it comes to what the actual common folk will think, you are off your god damn rocker. Just because you were disappointed by the absolutely outstanding Transformers, doesn't mean the public was. Quite the opposite, as shown by its success. No, it will not break the Dark Knight's record. I don't think it will break 158 over its 5 day, but it won't disappoint like you say it will. Just like Fast and Furious didn't bomb because you wanted it to. Just like Angels and Demons didn't make less than 100 million like you wanted it to. Its a wonder how you are ever successful in this game because of how much emphasis you put on your own opinions in deciding what the public will see, which is usually so far out of whack that its laughable.

P.S. Transformers doesn't need the goddess to sell tickets, but it sure as hell won't hurt it either.

by **Shrykespeare** Wed Jun 03, 2009 7:40 am

Buscemi wrote:Shryke, the male audience will be also sharply divided between Transformers and Public Enemies. One is a robot movie in its second week that's bound to disappoint. Another is Captain Jack Sparrow and Batman in the same movie, trying to kill each other. Though Public Enemies has a R rating, the coolness factor is up the wazoo and people should flock to it. Unless Universal short changes the ad campaign like they did with Drag Me To Hell.

Also, no one takes Megan Fox seriously as an actress. Who would pay eight dollars to see her in a movie when you can pay $2.95 to whack off to her in a magazine or for free on the Internet. You'll see what I mean when Jennifer's Body bombs in September.

Having "Batman" in a Terminator movie didn't help that one much, did it?

And I wasn't referencing Megan's "acting" ability, was I? I doubt anyone who contributed to the $300M-plus take of the two Fantastic Four movies went because they were drawn to Jessica Alba's "acting" ability either. This kind of movie simply... ain't... about... the acting. Now, Public Enemies? You're right, that one does have a very high coolness factor. And that one WILL be a lot more about the acting. But the demographics for those two films will barely overlap.

by W Wed Jun 03, 2009 8:14 am

geezer9687 wrote:If it did, I'd say its more a sign of how bad inflation has gotten over the past year than anything else.

It has nothing to do with escapism? People's lives are crap right now comparative to other summers. They'll shell out cash just to forget that. I don't think inflation (at the movies) is that big either, is it? Here prices have steadily increased from $6.50 to $8.50 over the past five years. Though people complain, its still relatively cheap if you compare it to other forms of similar entertainment (sports, plays, etc). The movie business actually does better when the economy is down if you haven't been able to tell from January through today (for the most part). It will have a giant opening, but I don't see TDK numbers.

Also, you guys are badly overestimating Public Enemies' potential. You really think a historical bioptic it's going to hurt an extremely successful movie about giant robots and hot young people? Don't get me wrong, I think the quality of Public Enemies will be much better than Transformers: ROTF, but its basically a western set in the mid-west and those are a hard sell... It could do $100 M overall and not hurt Tran2. And fellas, I don't think its ceiling is much higher than that.

by **geezer9687** Wed Jun 03, 2009 9:15 am

I actually didn't believe that statement W, I guess you misunderstood. What I was saying is that if, by some insane set of circumstances that TROTF out-performs TDK, it wouldn't be because it had more butts in the seats, and the inflation in our country would be worse than I thought.

by BanksIsDaFuture Wed Jun 03, 2009 12:21 pm

Yeah well, attendance is always the true form of how popular a movie is, and The Dark Knight is far from being #1 or 2. Inflation is the reason for big OWs in the last 5 years or so. It's also the reason that the OW record is broken every single year, I think it has since 2002 when Spider-Man had the record.

But I think we all know TF2 will get nowhere near any of The Dark Knight's BO records...

And I agree that Jennifer's Body will flop.

by **Buscemi** Wed Jun 03, 2009 12:29 pm

To me, Transformers: Revenge Of The Fallen is going to be like Spider-Man 3. The opening will be huge, but it also drop quickly due to competition and audience disappointment. It will be a huge hit but it won't be one that we'll be happy with.

by W Wed Jun 03, 2009 1:02 pm

Hate to tell you, but I believe we've been in an inflationary period since the end of the Great Depression (I believe, can't come up with #s). I don't understand why you say that the reason for the high OWs from 2004-9... In 1975, Jaws had the OW record with $7,061,000 that converts (inflates) to less than $28 M.

You can also compare something closer like Harry Potter 1, which had the record at the time. Potter's $90.3 M opening inflates to $110 M TDK dollars. Still not even close to Spider-man 3...

Anyways, (according to inflation) Spider-Man didn't outsell POTC:DMC, which didn't outsell SM3, which didn't outsell TDK. (I checked using an inflation calculator).

My hypothesis is that more people are going to the movies than ever and have been for a long while. While its true that some years actually go down overall, the next year its usually higher than ever. So, that's what I'm thinking...

The inflation rate now is 4.2%, which means to beat TDK, Transformers 2 will have to sell 96% of the seats TDK did (I think).

by brockman81 Wed Jun 03, 2009 5:34 pm

Excuse W. while he heads back to the nerdery with his calculator...

by W Wed Jun 03, 2009 7:46 pm

I was an econ major at one point... I ended up having enough classes to get two minors in it (though you can't do that). I also decided to major in history... So, I think historical economic data is actually fun... The internet makes this a simple "plug and chug".

I do the same thing to prove people wrong about the NBA salary cap sometimes, but there's trade checkers for that.

by W Wed Jun 03, 2009 7:50 pm

BTW, you didn't find it a little crazy that Jaws had the OW record 34 years ago and it only made $28 M for the weekend in today's dollars? That shows a lot of things. People have to be going to films much more today than they used to, or at least to the big films.

by Spectre Wed Jun 03, 2009 9:23 pm

Don't forget that the first movie did over 300 million. Rarely do you see a sequel to a popular movie that was actually entertaining do worse than the first. More often than not it's a significant jump. Add in that 170 million 5 day and the 4th of July weekend right after and you're looking pretty darn good. I think it'll be absolutely huge.

Also, I think Buscemi has officially cemented himself as the dead opposite of popular opinion. If he thinks it stinks or will bust, it's just about a guaranteed hit. Laughing

by undeadmonkey Wed Jun 03, 2009 10:14 pm

honestly buscemi, you havent seen it, so you cant say that it'll have poor reaction. I think you're biased because you hated the first one, but most everyone at least liked it.

by **geezer9687** Wed Jun 03, 2009 11:06 pm

You think UDM? lol

by nickb1016 Wed Jun 03, 2009 11:43 pm

Transformers is opening in a wide open market. The films of June will be fairly weak. Its biggest competition will come from the third week of Pelham. It should make over 158 million in 5 days easily.

And yes it faces alot of competition from Ice Age and Public Enemies, but im pretty sure the studio knows this. Why do you think they are releasing it on a wednsday? So it has 2 extra days before those 2 hit

by undeadmonkey Thu Jun 04, 2009 12:09 am

geezer9687 wrote:You think UDM? lol

the second sentence was sarcastic, i guess its sometimes hard to tell online.

Personally, I think that Transformers will beat the 5 day record and the wednesday opening record. Although Potter could take the record back in a couple of weeks.

edit: although transformers might open with tuesday night previews, then it might not get the wednesday record

by W Thu Jun 04, 2009 12:16 am

Again... Public Enemies isn't going to hurt Transformers...

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