Tracking for Jan. 9th

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Tracking for Jan. 9th

Post by JackO on Tue Jan 06, 2009 7:40 am

Hollywood Elsewhere

Gran Torino, which goes wide this weekend, is running at 71, 49 and 18. It seems likely to beat the debuting Bride Wars, which is tracking at 68, 34 and 10. Not Easily Broken is 60, 28 and 1 and The Unborn is 56, 30 and 7.

The only reason why I disagree with Wells is the theater count. But anything can happen and it looks like the weekend is wide open after all.
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Re: Tracking for Jan. 9th

Post by Buscemi on Tue Jan 06, 2009 7:47 am

I can definitely see Gran Torino making at least $20 million on opening weekend. It's like The Bucket List from this time last year, but with better word-of-mouth.

Also, Gran Torino is set to expand into at least 2,600 theatres. That's just 400 theatres less than Bride Wars' number of theatres.

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Re: Tracking for Jan. 9th

Post by JackO on Tue Jan 06, 2009 11:34 am

MTC

19 Bride
15 Grand
12 Unborn
2 Not Easily
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Re: Tracking for Jan. 9th

Post by geezer9687 on Tue Jan 06, 2009 11:57 pm

That makes sense, but I think they will all be slightly higher. Like 22, 18, 14, 3.

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Re: Tracking for Jan. 9th

Post by johnErle on Thu Jan 08, 2009 8:35 pm

JackO wrote:Hollywood Elsewhere

Gran Torino, which goes wide this weekend, is running at 71, 49 and 18. It seems likely to beat the debuting Bride Wars, which is tracking at 68, 34 and 10. Not Easily Broken is 60, 28 and 1 and The Unborn is 56, 30 and 7.


What exactly do those numbers mean? If I remember right it's something to do with awareness, first choice to see on the weekend, and weekend box office estimates.
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Re: Tracking for Jan. 9th

Post by geezer9687 on Thu Jan 08, 2009 10:47 pm

Its total awareness, definite interest and first choice, John. It has nothing to do with a prediction number.

However, the numbers I posted were my predictions for this weekends 4 opening films. Not to be confused with those numbers.

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Re: Tracking for Jan. 9th

Post by johnErle on Thu Jan 08, 2009 11:50 pm

geezer9687 wrote:Its total awareness, definite interest and first choice, John. It has nothing to do with a prediction number.

However, the numbers I posted were my predictions for this weekends 4 opening films. Not to be confused with those numbers.

Ah, thanks.

Now the real question is how often the tracking actually reflects real-world results, ie. WTF is up with that tracking for My Bloody Valentine?
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Re: Tracking for Jan. 9th

Post by Shrykespeare on Sat Jan 10, 2009 12:21 am

Anyone know where to find any "Final Tracking" numbers from Steve Mason? If so, please post.

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Re: Tracking for Jan. 9th

Post by undeadmonkey on Sat Jan 10, 2009 12:43 am

here ya go sir, this is his latest, but its not his final tracking


EARLY TRACKING: Kate Hudson-produced BRIDE WARS may hold off MARLEY & ME and GRAN TORINO for weekend win!
by Steve Mason
A year ago, Fox scored a January hit with the female-geared 27 Dresses. The Katherine Heigl vehicle chick-flick opened with $23M on the weekend of January 18 en route to a nifty $76.8M domestic gross. Now Kate Hudson has produced and stars in the wedding-themed comedy Bride Wars, debuting on just over 3,000 screens in Friday.
Early reviews are downright awful for Bride Wars (00% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of Wednesday night), but Kate Hudson is a likable personality whose sub-par rom-com Fool’s Gold opened to $21.5M last February. Add to the mix Anne Hathaway with $100M-grossing movies Get Smart ($130.3M cume) and The Devil Wears Prada ($124.7) on her recent resume, and you’ve got a picture that could win the weekend. Tracking is strong with Under 25’s, and the Mean Girls-style marketing improves the chances that Under 25 Males will allow themselves to be dragged along to see it.
I am anticipated that David Frankel’s Marley & Me (Fox) will make it a 1-2 Fox finish. Based on John Grogan’s beloved memoir, this lovable lab-turned-box office star should paw its way to another $15.16M or so, down about 37% from New Year’s weekend.
Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino has platformed perfectly and looks particularly strong for its wide break. Its Definite Interest number in industry tracking approaches 50 and its First Choice is a couple of ticks below 20, but much of its appeal is older, and it has a strong R rating. I’m forecasting something in the mid-teens and a good solid 3rd place finish, although an upside surprise is certainly possible. It’s not inconceivable that Gran Torino could pull off an upset and win the weekend, but I would be surprised given that it is on 400 or so fewer screens than Bride Wars.
It’s January, which means that there is always room for a horror movie. This week’s supernatural potboiler is David S. Goyer’s The Unborn (Rogue/Universal), from the low budget horror specialists at Platinum Dunes (2003’s Texas Chainsaw Massacre and The Hitcher remake and The Invisible both in 2007). Tracking suggests that the response for this one will possibly be a rather muted $12.35M by Monday.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) and Bedtime Stories (Disney) will battle for the #5 spot, and I am giving Button the slight edge. Fincher’s epic, adapted from an F. Scott Fitzgerald short story, is on an awards carpet ride from now through February, and hardcore movies fans will want to rush out and see Ben Button prior to Sunday night’s Golden Globes ceremony on NBC.
The other wide new release is Bill Duke’s Not Easily Broken (Sony) starring Morris Chestnut and Taraji P. Hemson. Awareness is low and with well fewer than 1,000 screens, the movie is unlikely to top $3.5M.
FINAL PREDICTED WEEKEND GROSSES FOR JANUARY 9-11
1. NEW - Bride Wars (Fox) - $19M
2. Marley & Me (Fox) - $15.16M
3. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $14.63M
4. NEW – The Unborn (Universal) - $12.35M
5. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $11.83M
6. Bedtime Stories (Disney) - $11.06M
7. Valkyrie (UA/MGM) - $9M
8. Yes Man (Warner Bros) - $8.9M
9. Seven Pounds (Sony) - $5.27M
10. Tale of Despereaux (Universal) - $3.7M
11. NEW – Not Easily Broken (Sony) - $3.43M
12. Doubt (Miramax) - $3.32M
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Re: Tracking for Jan. 9th

Post by J-Man on Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:44 pm

Ack! Bad news of us who picked Bride Wars to win the weekend (I picked it in all of my Ultimate leagues – way to through all my eggs in one basket!). It looks like the Kate Hudson/Anne Hathaway comedy will lose the weekend to Gran Torino. According to Steve Mason via /Film and his twitter, Gran Torino picked up a whopping $10m on Friday, and it has a real chance and earning $30m this weekend – an all time best for Clint Eastwood film.

Everything seemed to be performing above expectation, Bride Wars picked up $7.5m and Mason predicts it will go on to earn about $21m for the weekend and The Unborn similar captured $7.5m on Friday, with a shot at getting $18m for the weekend.

Also, Not Easily Broken may have a chance to pick up some PTA points, with $5.8m for the weekend, and a PTA of $8,000. Mason’s twitter says that the slightly expanded Revolution Road will earn about $11k per location. I wonder how Defiance is performing in its second weekend in limited release before it expands next week.

From /Film (http://www.slashfilm.com/2009/01/09/box-office-gran-torino-grabs-10m-friday-could-reach-30m-weekend/)
EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $10M, $3,561 PTA, $21M cume
2. NEW – Bride Wars (Fox) - $7.6M, $2,356 PTA, $7.6M cume
3. NEW – The Unborn (Rogue) - $7.5M, $3,183 PTA, $7.5M cume
4. Marley & Me (Fox) - $3.6M, $1,035 PTA, $115.96M cume
5. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $3.3M, $1,120 PTA, $88.17M cume
6. Bedtime Stories (Disney) - $3.1M, $883 PTA, $91.72M cume
7. Valkyrie (UA/MGM) - $2.75M, $969 PTA, $67.59M cume
8. Yes Man (Warner Bros) - $2.4M, $812 PTA, $85.65M cume
9. NEW – Not Easily Broken (Sony) - $2M, $2,762 PTA, $2M cume
10. Seven Pounds (Sony) - $1.68M, $686 PTA, $64.61M cume
11. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $1.1M, $1,839 PTA, $31.44M cume
12. Doubt (Miramax) - $1.1M, $855 PTA, $21.53M cume
EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $30M, $10,684 PTA, $41M cume
2. NEW – Bride Wars (Fox) - $21.28M, $6,596 PTA, $21.28M cume
3. NEW – The Unborn (Rogue) - $18M, $7,640 PTA, $18M cume
3. Marley & Me (Fox) - $12.96M, $3,726 PTA, $125.32M cume
5. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $11.38M, $3,863 PTA, $96.26M cume
6. Bedtime Stories (Disney) - $11.16M, $3,179 PTA, $99.78M cume
7. Valkyrie (UA/MGM) - $8.8M, $3,101 PTA, $73.64M cume
8. Yes Man (Warner Bros) - $7.92M, $2,680 PTA, $91.17M cume
9. NEW – Not Easily Broken (Sony) - $5.8M, $8,011 PTA, $5.8M cume
10. Seven Pounds (Sony) - $5.56M, $2,265 PTA, $68.49M cume
11. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $4.03M, $6,711 PTA, $34.37M cume
12. Doubt (Miramax) - $4.01M, $3,120 PTA, $24.45M cume

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Re: Tracking for Jan. 9th

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