4/24 Tracking

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4/24 Tracking

Post by JackO on Tue Apr 21, 2009 6:51 pm

MTC 4/24
-- notfabio, Apr 20, 14:32
OBSESSED: 20
Soloist: 10
EARTH: 9 (5 day)
FIGHTING: 6

RS 4/24
-- notfabio, Apr 19, 23:24
OBSESSED: Very High Teens
EARTH: Between 9-11 (5 day)
SOLOIST: Very High Single Digits
FIGHTING; Between 6-8

Future:
Ghosts: Almost mid 20's
Wolverine Mid 80's
Trek; Mid 50's
Angels and Demons: Almost mid 60's
Next Day Air: Almost teen millions

Also goes for mid 380's total for Transformers 2 but that's entirely editor opinion.
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Re: 4/24 Tracking

Post by Buscemi on Tue Apr 21, 2009 7:04 pm

I think they're overestimating Angels and Demons and Next Day Air. I can't see the former opening to more than $40 million (since there hasn't been much of a campaign for it) and I can't see the latter opening to more than $5 million (the film looks like a ripoff of Guy Ritchie films and those films usually don't open well).

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Re: 4/24 Tracking

Post by packpaljs on Tue Apr 21, 2009 7:43 pm

I think Next Day Air might be a surprise. Although there are not too many on this site, some people just have a bad taste in there mouth when they hear Star Trek so I see alot of people see Next Day Air over Star Trek. Plus I think it actually looks like a decent movie. I would also say that it falls under a African American cinema movie, and that audience only gets a few movies a year and they usually make a little bank.
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Re: 4/24 Tracking

Post by brockman81 on Tue Apr 21, 2009 7:49 pm

But the imdb score is going to be awful...that's the draw back...
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Re: 4/24 Tracking

Post by packpaljs on Tue Apr 21, 2009 7:50 pm

What number are you thinking?
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Re: 4/24 Tracking

Post by W on Tue Apr 21, 2009 8:16 pm

packpaljs wrote: I would also say that it falls under a African American cinema movie, and that audience only gets a few movies a year and they usually make a little bank.

Fer shizzle. But, if a movie is bad, the BO won't do well anyways. This one has a marketing campaign that has just started up and I just saw the first trailer yesterday, so my expectations rose moderately. I wonder if they're running the trailer on BET? It doesn't look horrible, so it should do decent, though I wouldn't put a number on it just yet.

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Re: 4/24 Tracking

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Tue Apr 21, 2009 9:21 pm

Summit is promoting the hell out of Next Day Air, it's on like half of the movies out in theaters now. I haven't seen many TV spots, but I think the casting of Mike Epps will bring in some people. Maybe low teens for its OW?

I'm thinking Obsessed will hit at least low to mid 20s, but the promotion has seemed to trail off over recent weeks. I'm surprised Fighting is tracking so poorly, since I see that goddamn movie advertised everywhere. I want to shoot Terrence Howard in the face everytime he's like "Wanna make some money?" Sounds like a fucking rapist.
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Re: 4/24 Tracking

Post by brockman81 on Tue Apr 21, 2009 9:22 pm

What number are you thinking?

I would say the imdb would be in the high 2's to low 3's. But it might be a half way decent box office pick.
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Re: 4/24 Tracking

Post by transformers2 on Tue Apr 21, 2009 9:32 pm

I'm unsure about Next Day Air. The trailer intrigued me. Personally i think its either going to completley tank or do decently.
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Re: 4/24 Tracking

Post by IPKI$$ on Tue Apr 21, 2009 10:00 pm

I actually think Next Day Air could do pretty well. I'm definitely going to see it, I think it looks entertaining and funny as hell. Plus, the cast is pretty impressive IMO, and it doesn't look like just another 'black' movie. Summit is promoting the hell out of it and they helped Knowing make way more money than it rightfully would've made. I think it'll be a decent pick in either league to be honest. the Imdb will probably look more like Friday than Roscoe Jenkins...I'm thinking a solid 6 or low 7 would be about right with maybe $40mil total and a handful of top5. Not bad in a soon to be crowded megaplex.
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Re: 4/24 Tracking

Post by brockman81 on Tue Apr 21, 2009 10:57 pm

No way in hell it gets over a 6 imdb...whens the last time an African American movie similar to this scored a high imdb score? Because Friday was way back in the 90's...look at Ice Cube's track record on movies recently...mostly in the 3's when he's the star.
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Re: 4/24 Tracking

Post by geezer9687 on Tue Apr 21, 2009 11:01 pm

I have not seen a single bit of anything advertising this film. Not a poster, not a trailer, not a tv spot. I have no idea what the plot is or how well it will do. I also don't plan on seeking it out.

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Re: 4/24 Tracking

Post by IPKI$$ on Tue Apr 21, 2009 11:05 pm

That's because he makes shitty movies now. The people who vote terribly on Imdb for all of those crappy looking katt williams/martin lawrence family comedies are the exact people who will probably like a movie like this, trust me. This, like I said, is not just another black movie...I honestly think the appeal is there for this to reach a good sized market, but we'll see in a few weeks either way.
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Re: 4/24 Tracking

Post by brockman81 on Tue Apr 21, 2009 11:15 pm

I just can't see it having a high imdb...but we shall see soon enough I suppose. If the imdb gets into the 4's I'll call that a success for the movie.
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Re: 4/24 Tracking

Post by J.I. on Thu Apr 23, 2009 2:53 am

I've been somewhat of a naysayer for Obsessed, but Obsessed is officially going to do well.
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Re: 4/24 Tracking

Post by geezer9687 on Thu Apr 23, 2009 8:00 am

So, now that I've actually paid attention to the tv spots for Obsessed... It looks fucking terrible. I mean like god damn awful. That said, it will still make money for some unknown reason.

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Re: 4/24 Tracking

Post by brockman81 on Thu Apr 23, 2009 6:07 pm

My fiance and I saw the preview for Obsessed last night and we both laughed every time Beyonce was on the preview and was trying to act hard core and serious...I mean how corny can you get? If this movie didn't have Beyonce in it I might go see it.
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Re: 4/24 Tracking

Post by packpaljs on Thu Apr 23, 2009 6:16 pm

I got fooled with Swimfan, I won't be fooled by a movie like this again.
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Re: 4/24 Tracking

Post by transformers2 on Thu Apr 23, 2009 7:02 pm

i agree the trailer for Obessed is terrible it looks a complete turd. I laughed out loud the first time i saw the trailer attached to Notorious in January.
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Re: 4/24 Tracking

Post by Shrykespeare on Thu Apr 23, 2009 11:55 pm

Keep checking Mase's site periodically. He hasn't done anything new since Hannah Montana's OW two weeks ago, but I'm sure his absence is only temporary.

If anyone can cull some more recent numbers from any other sites, please post them. God knows many of us are lost without that little nudge in the right direction...

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Re: 4/24 Tracking

Post by W on Fri Apr 24, 2009 12:05 am

I took the HSX numbers and divided them by 2.2 (since they multiply OW by 2.2) and got this:

Obsessed: 22.93 M
Soloist: 12.81 M
Fighting: 10.38 M
Earth 7.35 M

Good as any guess... At least this one is an average of thousands of people.

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W can i state that you are a genius. I dont know how you do it dude. They should have doing the tracking instead of those other idiots. - transformers2
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Re: 4/24 Tracking

Post by BarcaRulz on Fri Apr 24, 2009 12:16 am

I read at Boxofficemojo that Earth had something like a 4 million Wed. It should be set for a very good weekend.

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Re: 4/24 Tracking

Post by W on Fri Apr 24, 2009 12:18 am

BarcaRulz wrote:I read at Boxofficemojo that Earth had something like a 4 million Wed. It should be set for a very good weekend.

Yep. Just saw that. Tickets have been sold for it since last fall, though...

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W can i state that you are a genius. I dont know how you do it dude. They should have doing the tracking instead of those other idiots. - transformers2
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Re: 4/24 Tracking

Post by IPKI$$ on Fri Apr 24, 2009 12:54 am

I expect Earth to do very well, as I know there are a lot of schools going to see it as part of class trips and such...
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Re: 4/24 Tracking

Post by JackO on Fri Apr 24, 2009 2:35 am

Good call on Earth, Buscemi. Not only was it a pretty good flick, it looks like it'll get some cash before Wolverine cleans up shop.
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