Super-contest of 2009// Blockbusters of 2009

Buscemi wrote:I like how I'm the only one who sees The Princess and The Frog being a hit. It's the comeback film for Disney's animation department and it's in 3-D. Also the basic idea is a really good one, being a 1930's jazz-flavored update of The Frog Prince.

Yeah, I can really see the kids getting into that.... Coming out against Alvin, it has no chance of getting near the target it will require to make the top 10.

Unless the parents make them. I also imagine that the parents had the say between Marley and Me and Bedtime Stories.

Maybe so, but Alvin has a proven track record of success. It is not a vehicle for Adam Sandler. Why would parents force the kids to see The Princess And The Frog over Alvin?

Because it's Disney, it's animated and it doesn't have a made-up word in the title (having Squeak-uel in the title may turn off potential Alvin viewers).

Disney does not guarantee Pixar type numbers. Here are some previous Disney animated movies BO takings to bear in mind:

Bolt: 112m
Meet The Robinsons: 98m
The Wild: 38m
Chicken Little: 135m
Brother Bear: 85m
Lilo and Stitch: 145m
Treasure Planet: 38m
Atlantis: The Lost Empire: 84m
Dinosaur: 137m
The Emperor's New Groove: 89m
Tarzan: 171m
Mulan: 120m
Hercules: 99m
The Hunchback Of Notre Dame: 100m
Pocahontas: 141m

So going all the way back to the Lion King, Disney have had only one movie crack $150m. Not the track record for getting a spot in the top ten is it? There are far more animated movies with BO potential than The Princess And The Frog. Alvin, Up, Ice Age and Monster Vs Aliens will all come close to if not break the top ten. The Princess and The Frog will miss out I'm afraid.

Technically, The Wild wasn't Disney. It was contracted to an independent company with Disney handling worldwide distribution.

And keep in mind that some of those films would have over $150 million through inflation or did finish in the top ten the year that the film opened. Also, this film is a test for Disney to see if cel animation can return to the days of The Little Mermaid and Beauty and The Beast. This makes me think that they will promote the hell out of it and that it will be hard not to see an ad somewhere for it.

I see it being a hit. A 130 million dollar hit, which isn't at the level of this game. Your Marley and Me comparison is a good one. I see it performing possibly similar numbers to that. I just don't think it can crack the top 10 of the year, maybe not even top 15.

Tarzan and Pocahontas are the only movies to have cracked that top ten since the Lion King. Two movies in 15 years is nothing to shout about, especially from a company renowned for animated BO success. And I don't think we will ever see Disney return to the success of Beauty and The Beast and The Little Mermaid, at least while Pixar are around anyway. I remember when I was younger Disney released pretty much a movie a year, and it was an occasion to wait for. That is the same with Pixar now, Pixar are at the forefront of animation, and Disney are not even in the top 2 or possibly three. I would love Disney to start bringing back the glory days, but I doubt it will happen at the expense of Pixar.

Even with Pixar's head running the animation division and his time and energy he's using to help them co-exist?

There just isn't that buzz about Disney that there used to be, and that isn't gonna change overnight. Even with the head of Pixar in charge, a lot of changes need to be made to bring it back to success. We may see signs with The Princess And The Frog, but it'll take a long time before it can start pumping out numbers to even come close to Pixar on a regular basis.

What we need to see is the quality of Disney's films that use to be at the top. The reason films like Beauty and the Beat and The Lion King did so well is that they were incredible films. Just like what Pixar is doing now. When Disney starts giving us some more true classics, then I guarantee the numbers will come in.

Buscemi wrote:I like how I'm the only one who sees The Princess and The Frog being a hit. It's the comeback film for Disney's animation department and it's in 3-D. Also the basic idea is a really good one, being a 1930's jazz-flavored update of The Frog Prince.

I agree it'll be a hit, but i also agree that it wont be in the top ten. I also would love to see Disney return to making classic drawn animation films. I think Disney should focus on that, and let Pixar cover the CG animated films

I still think that it could be almost overnight. When The Little Mermaid was released, the highest grossing Disney film in its first release had done $53 million. The Little Mermaid made $84 million. Last year's tenth highest-grossing film made $154 million. I imagine that the film with have good enough legs to make a similar number.

Meanwhile, I think the ceiling for Alvin is $140 million. Sequels like this one come a dime a dozen and I can't see the same audience that the first had returning for a sequel. Plus when the first came out, there were almost no children's films out (The Golden Compass was PG-13, The Waterhorse wouldn't open for another two weeks, everyone had seen Enchanted and August Rush, Bee Movie and Fred Claus were dead). When the sequel opens, children's films will likely be everywhere.

It very well could break out and hit 150 million. But that will not even put it in the top 10. I think 175 is the absolute floor for next year's tenth film.

I think almost every one if not all my top ten picks can hit $200m. This could be a very big year at the BO. Last year was pretty poor really beyond the top 5 spots. Look at 2007's totals, Ratatouille was 11th with more than $200m.

Well when you have The Dark Knight making 530 million... it doesn't leave much room for anything else. I've said all along that 2009 will mirror 2007.

Which four movies do you think will break $300m? I can see maybe Transformers and Harry Potter, maybe Wolverine. But aside from those, I can't really see any definite possibilities.

I think that Terminator could do it if the reviews are good. Its not that 4 films will necessarily make 300, but that style of year, with a lot of films between 180 and 300 and none over 330.

Then I agree with that. All my movies below Wolverine seemed to cluster around the $200m mark. I don't see Terminator making it though. The last movie only made $150m, and I don't see this one doing too much better, especially with no Arnie. Maybe $180m at best.

I think its potential is better because its not doing what T3 did. Its not just trying to continue on the series. And Christian Bale is a huge draw, probably much bigger than Arnie would be at this point.

I think only two (Harry Potter and Transformers) will manage $300 million. I think Wolverine will manage $150 million at most. I just don't think there is much interest in X-Men anymore and I think this entry will be critically savaged (mainly because the director has never directed action before and the things that the trailer showed us seem to perhaps make the film look worse, from showing Wolverine in the Civil War to Liev Schreiber as the film's villain).

I could only imagine the headlines if the first blockbuster of the year flopped out of the gate.

No way will Wolverine only make $150m. He was the most popular of X-Men, and despite the bad press of X3, there is still enough of a fan base to support a good $200m if not $300m. And remember, it is the first of the blockbuster releases of the summer, and it's been quite a while since one of those flopped. Both previous releases, both of which were Marvel comic adaptations have managed $300m, and even if it doesn't reach those heights, it will still perform well.

Last year, we had only 6 movies that surpassed $200 M. This year I'm bettin' on at least 10, possible even 15...

Hey, I got a question for delfinasu: I'm just about to post my Super Contest II list (and, btw, thanks for allowing me extra time due to my server difficulties, I've been online just about all day now and I think they're finally ironed out): Will Toy Story (in Disney Digital 3-D), due to be released October 2, be available? Technically it's a rerelease, but I noticed that My Bloody Valentine 3-D was available in the Super Leagues... And, of course, there's the ominous reality that NO ONE has apparently chosen Woody, Buzz, Potato, Slinky and the Green Army Men for their Super Contest II slates...

Anywho, just curious. I don't know for sure that I want it on my Top Ten List for '09, but I'm thinking about it. If ANY feature is going to bring 3-D into the mainstream -- and I am by no means convinced that any actually WILL -- why NOT the first theatrical rerelease of a film that grossed $191M in 1995-96?


Woody and Buzz in 3-D!