Star Trek and Future Tracking (Updated with MTC)

RS 5/8
-- notfabio, May 3, 20:40
TREK: Mid 60's
NEXT DAY AIR: Mid Single Digits

Future:
NIGHT AT THE MUESEUM: High 70's (4 day)
TERMINATOR: Mid 120's (5 Day)
DANCE FLICK: High Single Digits
ANGELS & DEMONS: Low 60's
DRAG ME TO HELL: Low 30's

Should be noted that other services have MUESEUM ahead of Terminator in terms of awareness/interest to see. (Terminator does have the extra day)

MTC 5/8
-- notfabio, May 4, 13:27
Trek: 62
Next Day Air: 4

Trek is selling at almost double the pace of Wolverine advance sales but more than 50% of that is IMAX

Drag Me to Hell is Low 30's??

I haven't seen any commercials for it on TV, but wow. That puts it ahead of The Strangers last year, and that turned out to be the under-$5 pick of the summer.

Yeah, right now it seems hard to believe. Two weeks from now we'll have a better idea.

I see Drag Me To Hell being this year's Wanted. The trailers have been getting great reaction, it's Sam Raimi's big return to horror and early word has been great. Also, Sam Raimi's name alone helped The Grudge get to $100 million back in 2004 (though he had little to do with the film).

to go even further with that, it's also opening opposite Pixar

So they ahve Drag Me to Hell tracking but not Up? And I knew Star Trek would go up in tracking. 50 million was just too low. Still suprising for NatM2.

The way Star Trek is being advertised (at least over here), I predict it will go even higher, maybe a $70m OW. And Drag Me To Hell will be this year's Wanted. It's gonna be massive.

Drag Me to Hell will probably be big, there seems to be a dearth of horror movies this summer. It's this, then Orphan. I think that's it for the next 3 months.

I think a better comparison than Wanted is that it will be this year's 1408. Going old school, my first league on the old site, way back style there.

When "The Grudge" came out, people didn't see it because of Sam Raimi's name, they saw it because it had an appealing trailer and a damned creepy kid. Plus the whole Japanese Horror thing was going good at that time. I think The Ring gave that film more success than Sam did...

Plus if you didn't figure it out yet, every horror movie this year has exceeded expectations financially.

Maybe so, how did 1408 do? Didn't it get about $70m? i think it can do better than that. That May-July season was my first season too. I think FM had a big push on imdb for new players around then.

Yeah around 72 milion, and I think that will be about right actually. My first was actually the June season that year, one behind you. I was actually in the same league that ash played his first league in. I came in second, been hooked ever since.

Maybe that was a good month to join, and everyone who joined became a master player, where as joining in my month condemned you to playing consistently awful and taking more than a year to win a league...

silversurfer19 wrote:Maybe so, how did 1408 do? Didn't it get about $70m? i think it can do better than that. That May-July season was my first season too. I think FM had a big push on imdb for new players around then.

Same here, I remembering only playing BO for awhile though, I thought Ultimate was too complicated. How stupid of me....

I think Star Trek should do 60 this weekend. It is getting fantastic early buzz though so it could do a little bit better than first expected.

I love how this movie has 32 reviews on RT and STILL has a 100% tomatometer.

I have a feeling its gonna be this year's TDK, review wise.

J.I. wrote:I love how this movie has 32 reviews on RT and STILL has a 100% tomatometer.

silversurfer19 wrote:I have a feeling its gonna be this year's TDK, review wise.

What?! I can hardly believe it. I thought it looked like good fun by the trailers, but not actually a great movie.

I'm going to be keeping close attention to its tracking and rating, if that and the tracking holds up or gets better i'm definitely going to put it on a few slates.

J.I. wrote:I love how this movie has 32 reviews on RT and STILL has a 100% tomatometer.

Yeah, I've yet to hear or read anything bad about this movie. ComingSoon's review said the last half hour was a little slow, but still gave it a 8/10.

This'll have the legs of Iron Man. Speaking of which, I saw a TV spot that called it "this years Iron Man", which I thought was weird.

But my predictions for this weekend:

1 - Star Trek - $65 mill

2 - Wolverine - $32 mill

3 - Next Day Air - $15 mill

4 - Ghosts of Girlfriend's Past - $7 mill

5 - Obsessed - $6 mill

If ANYONE has any movie reviews to send me, I'm in dire need. I need to get on the stick and write some more myself....

I'd need to see some movies to do that. I haven't been to the cinema for almost 2 months. Not much on right now in NZ....

My Predictions For This Week:

1.Star Trek $63 million ($71 million 4-day)
2.Wolverine $27 million
3.Ghosts Of Girlfriends Past $8 million
4.Obsessed $5.5 million
5.17 Again $3.5 million
-- Next Day Air $3 million (the target audience is obviously waiting for Dance Flick in two weeks)

Shrykespeare wrote:If ANYONE has any movie reviews to send me, I'm in dire need. I need to get on the stick and write some more myself....

Which do you need? I've seen one or two things, but have been ultra busy with school. Let me know what you don't have yet, and I'll try to see those and write something up...

He will take anything.