November Box Office Predictions

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November Box Office Predictions

Post by nickb1016 on Wed Oct 28, 2009 11:32 pm

The Box- The premise is intriuging and Cameron Diaz, James Marsden, and Frank Langella provide some strong star power. However, lots of date changes and direct competition from The Fourth Kind are going to limit it's potential.

17.5 OW
52.5 Total

A Christmas Carol- Where the Wild Things Are is fading fast and with the recent failure of Astroboy this has zero competition for the family market. I don't think it will open huge relative to other animated films based due it being a christmas film but it should have awesome legs. Jim Carrey is also a strong asset.

46.4 OW
189.6 Total

The Fourth Kind- I think this has some good ads, a creepy premise, and Mila Jovavich is reliable star in the right movies. But I think this is a terrible release date. I don't see a total flop but it definatley does not have breakout potential.

16.1 OW
43.7 Total

The Men Who Stare at Goats- I don't see this being the movie to end the Iraq war movie curse and I didn't find the trailer very funny. But it seems to be getting a positive response, it has strong starpower, and it's the only comedy for adults out at this point.

13.8 OW
49.8 Total

2012- The studio is hyping this movie like crazy. They wouldn't do this if they didn't think the movie would sell. That roadblock advertising move was a huge sign to this. I'm also betting that 2012 will be released in an outrageous amount of theaters probably over 4,000. The Day After Tomorrow which released earned 85.6 million over memorial day weekend, which inflation adjusts to just over 100 million and finished with 186.7 domestic(217 adjusted) and 544.3 worldwide(634.4 adjusted). People love disaster movies and this one has a stronger cast and a much more epic feel than Day After Tomorrow. 2012 also focuses much more on foreign countries like Rio, Himalayas, among others. While Day focused mainly on LA and NYC. It is also opening against no other significant wide releases, that along with strong advertising and greater international appeal this one is going to do monster buisness.

87.9 OW
295.4 Total

Pirate Radio- Seems like more of a cult classic and it will likely be overshadowed 2012. It does have some potential but it will depend on the studio push and reviews.

5.5 OW
17.8 Total

The Blind Side- Sandra Bullock proved herself in the Proposal as one of the strongest draws out there, she even helped the awful All About Steve to a decent if not mediocre performance. This one is change of pace for her but if the reviews follow I think audiences will to. Bullock's name will ensure this does at least the same buisness as Freedom Writers. It is also a nice alternative to the big movies of the season.

14.6 OW
59.9 Total

Planet 51- This doesn't seem that strong of a contender to me. Even Bolt failed to open over 30 million against Twilight and that was a much stronger film, not to mention Christmas Carol should still be holding strong.

16.4 OW
63.5 Total

New Moon- This is going to be huge. The Twilight fan base has expanded rapidly since the first film opened with 69million and finished just shy of 200 million. This is no longer a suprise hit, it is now an established franchise. This one has potenial to score the biggest opening weekend of the year, however 2012 will provide some competition for the non fans but it will be a non factor for the rabid Twilight fan base

124.5 OW
301.3 Total

Ninja Assasin- This is the default action movie for the timeframe. It should fall pretty even with Transporter 3 and Hitman.

10.5 OW
16.2 5 Day

Old Dogs- I think this is going to some serious damage over the holiday. It has a great cast, wide appeal, and that Gorilla scene should do for this what the Mike Tyson scene did for the Hangover. Even 4 Christmases managed 50 million over this frame last year.

40.3 OW
61.7 5 Day
184.2 Total

The Road- Delays, bleak premise, and lots of competition should all limit the potential of this film which is just to much of a downer for the holiday season

7.5 OW
11.2 5 Day
30.1 Total

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Re: November Box Office Predictions

Post by NSpan on Thu Oct 29, 2009 1:49 am

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