Predictions for Jan. 30 Weekend

From Steve Mason via Big Hollywood (whole article posted in the Steve Mason Thread)

FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF JANUARY 30
1. NEW – Taken (Fox) - $21M
2. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $13.2M
3. NEW - The Uninvited (Paramount) - $12.5M
4. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $10.4M
5. Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (Sony) - $10.35M
6. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $9.5M
7. Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $8.5M
8. NEW - New in Town (Lionsgate) - $6.5M
9. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $5.9M
10. My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) - $5.7M
11. Bride Wars (Fox) - $4.25M
12. Inkheart (Warner Bros) - $4.2M

Hmmm... $21 million? Interesting.

And if that holds up, The Uninvited will be the first horror movie in January to not break $18 million. Bound to happen.

I think both The Uninvited and New In Town will do better than those estimates. Horror flicks and rom-coms have a tendecy to do well over Super Bowl weekend.

Then again, it's a crowded market for both. You've got both The Unborn and Bloody Valentine 3D still in most theaters, and Jason comes a-knockin in 2 weeks.

And for the rom-coms, couples still have....well not much. Bride Wars and Marley & Me are pretty much dead, but the dames may be waiting for the more popular book adaptations: He's Just Not That Into You and/or Confessions of A Shopaholic.

I do think $21 million is the high end for Taken, but I can see it being #1.

Based on this, I have decided to add Taken to my January Ultimate slates. I am posting this so no one can say that I added it after the fact.

i Think Taken can do 16-18 Mill this weekend. I think it will debut at number 1. I think The Uninvited will do around 10 Mill. The super bowl will effect the box office for sure. So the numbers most likely wont be as high as normal. I myself plan on finally catching The Wrestler this weekend as it finally opened in my neck of the woods

Tracking from RS for Taken is 14 million and tracking from MTC is 18 million. If MTC is bigger than RS, it normally goes even higher than that. (It seemed unlikely for Blart to follow that but even that did.)

Taken is opening extremely well this weekend, and it's almost guaranteed to at least hit that 20M goal, if not more. Also, looking at the PTA averages, it'll probably grad 5/5 for the weekend.

However, bad news for those of us that picked Underworld - it may not make it into the top 5 if Mason's revised prediction is right. Still, the 8 points it has earned is not bad for $9. And Paul Blart is a best in all categories.

From Deadline Hollywood Daily:

B.O. BOWL: 'Taken' Starts Super At #1 Friday; Tackles 'Mall Cop' Down To #3
FRIDAY PM: Very early North American grosses for Friday (will be refined...)

1. TAKEN (20th Century Fox) OPENER --> $9+M [3,183 theaters]
2. THE UNINVITED (DreamWorks/Paramount) OPENER --> $4+M [2,344]
3. PAUL BLART: MALL COP (Sony) 3RD WEEK --> $4M [3,206]
4. NEW IN TOWN (Lionsgate) OPENER --> $3M [1,941]
5. UNDERWORLD 3: Lycans (Sony) 2ND WEEK --> $2.8M (-65%) [2,942]
6. GRAN TORINO (Warner Bros) 8TH WEEK --> $2.6M [3,015]
7. SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE (Fox Searchlight) 12TH WEEK --> $2.1M [1,633]

From Steve Mason:

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Taken (Fox) - $9.8M, $3,079 PTA, $9.8M cume
2. NEW – The Uninvited (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $4.5M, $1,920 PTA, $4.5M cume
3. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $4M, $1,248 PTA, $73.37M cume
4. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $2.7M, $896, $104.64M cume
5. Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (Sony) - $2.65M, $901 PTA, $28.23M cume
6. NEW – New in Town (Lionsgate) - $2.6M, $1,340 PTA, $2.6M cume
7. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $2.25M, $1,595 PTA, $61.81M cume
8. Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $1.9M, $601 PTA, $41.42M cume
9. My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) - $1.5M, $1,067 PTA, $41.84M cume
10. Bride Wars (Fox) - $1.25M, $630 PTA, $51.61M cume
11. The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) - $1.16M, $1,610 PTA, $11.9M cume
12. Inkheart (Warner Bros) - $1.1M, $414 PTA, $10.19M cume
*The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $1.05M, $494 PTA, $113.97M cume
*Notorious (Fox Searchlight) - $925,000, $856 PTA, $34.23M cume
*Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $825,000, $766 PTA, $14.2M
*Defiance (Paramount Vantage) - $750,000, $451 PTA, $21.04M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Taken (Fox) - $24M, $7,543 PTA, $24M cume
2. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $13.8M, $4,304 PTA, $83.17M cume
3. NEW – The Uninvited (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $11.47M, $4,895 PTA, $11.47M cume
4. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $9.3M, $3,090 PTA, $111.26M cume
5. Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $8.55M, $2,706 PTA, $48.07M cume
6. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $8.1M, $5,741 PTA, $67.66M cume
7. Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (Sony) - $7.95M, $2,702 PTA, $33.53M cume
8. NEW – New in Town (Lionsgate) - $7.5M, $3,864 PTA, $7.5M cume
9. My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) - $4.87M, $3,467 PTA, $45.22M cume
10. The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) - $4.3M, $5,957 PTA, $15M cume
11. Bride Wars (Fox) - $4M, $2,015 PTA, $54.36M cume
12. Inkheart (Warner Bros) - $3.63M, $1,367 PTA, $12.72M cume
*The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $3.51M, $1,655 PTA, $116.44M cume
*Notorious (Fox Searchlight) - $3.05M, $2,826 PTA, $36.36M cume
*Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $2.7M, $2,507 PTA, $16.07M
*Defiance (Paramount Vantage) - $2.5M, $1,504 PTA, $22.79M cume

From Deadline Hollywood Daily

HOLLYWOOD BOWL: 'Taken' Super Shock At #1, Tackles 'Mall Cop' Down To #2

SATURDAY PM: The Super Bowl, pirated copies circulating on the web, and a lovable mall cop heating up the box office all should have depressed the North American grosses for 20th Century Fox's thriller Taken opening. But the Liam Neeson-starrer, directed by District B13's Pierre Morel, and produced by Luc Besson, tackled those obstacles and turned in a super performance of $9.5 million Friday and $12M Saturday (+30%) from 3,183 theaters. That's way more than what Hollywood expected the film would make all weekend. Now, Taken's total is up to $25M assuming a modest $3.5M Sunday because of football hoopla. Fox originally told me hitting $14M would be "an unqualified success", and anything higher "just plain fantastic". Now, this weekend total elicits from the studio "WOW!" (No wonder Hollywood agencies were recently in hot pursuit of Morel as a client.) Knowing that the pic's audience would be led by older males, and moviegoers on Super Bowl Sunday can fall off by as much as 75%, the studio went into the weekend hopeful but unsure. "Younger males are also showing some interest, and we've managed to get some traction with older females," one Fox exec told me about this PG-13 film that pushes the envelope of the MPAA's movie ratings system. "This is one of those gambles that just hit the jackpot."

Columbia/Sony's Paul Blart: Mall Cop continues to shock the January box office. "Where will this phenom end? Who knows?" asks one rival studio exec in an email to me. (Meanwhile, kudos to MGM's Mary Parent for locking Kevin James into a pay or play deal back before Christmas for his next movie, 2010's The Zookeeper. She must be psychic cuz nobody predicted this hit.) The PG comedy had another great hold -- No. 2 for its 3rd week -- only -28% -- to earn $4.1 million Friday and $7.6M Saturday for another big $15M weekend and new cume of $84.4M.

DreamWorks/Paramount's suspense pic The Uninvited starring Elizabeth Banks debuted so-so on Friday and Saturday with $4.4 million apiece in 2,344 venues for No. 3 and a $10M weekend despite its short 87-minute running time. It had decent interest by young females but only 1/2 as much by young males. But a similar attempt at counter-programming the Super Bowl fared no better -- Lionsgate's New In Town, a tired fish-out-of-water story starring Rene Zellweger with moderate interest from older females. (That's a career in freefall.) By being out on only 1,941 locations, it opened No. 8 with only a $7M weekend.

With a new cume of $48M, Paramount's Hotel For Dogs keeps getting the kiddie matinee bump, this time for No. 4 and an $8.5M weekend. That's neck-and-neck with Clint Eastwood's morality tale Gran Torino which soared past the magic $100M mark for a $110.4M total. Here's the rest of the Top 10:

1. TAKEN (20th Century Fox) OPENER --> $25M Weekend [3,183 theaters]
2. PAUL BLART: MALL COP (Sony) 3rd week --> $15M [3,206] cume $84.4M
3. THE UNINVITED (DreamWorks/Paramount) OPENER --> $10M [2,344]
4. (tied) HOTEL FOR DOGS (Paramount) 3rd week --> $8.5M [3,160] cume $48M
4. (tied) GRAN TORINO (Warner Bros) 8th week --> $8.5M [3,015] cume $110.4M
6. SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE (Fox SL) 12th week --> $7.7M [1,633] cume $67.3M
7. UNDERWORLD 3 (Sony) 2nd week --> $7.5M [2,942] cume $33.1M
8. NEW IN TOWN (Lionsgate) OPENER --> $7M [1,941]
9. MY BLOODY VALENTINE 3-D (LG) 3rd week --> $4.2M [1,406] cume $44.5M
10. INKHEART (New Line/Warner Bros) 2nd week --> $4M [2,665] cume $13.1M

I actually thought that New In Town was going to be a hit. I guess that shows you that when Lionsgate attempts to cash in on ripoffs and/or clones* (instead of starting them, ala Saw), they you'd got a dud. This and last year's Disaster Movie.

That will be the last time I pick a Lionsgate-distributed film that is a blatant ripoff of something else (no, Bangkok Dangerous was just a remake and the Madea films were sequels but almost never pick the Madea films due to their cost).


*-the film was an attempt to rip off Sweet Home Alabama, as seen in the plot, advertising and the fact that they even got that film's writer to copy the script

Box Office Mojo's Weekend Estimates are up:

Top 5 points
1. Taken, 2. Paul Blart, 3. The Uninvited, 4. Hotel for Dogs, 5. Gran Torino

PTA points
1. The Class, 2. Taken, 3. Slumdog Millionaire, 4. The Uninvited, 5. Paul Blart

I can't believe that Hotel for Dogs is doing as well as it is, with only small drops. I know I shouldn't be, but I'm surprised that Underworld had such a big drop (65%) - I expected it to remain in the top 5 (last weekend, I'd have guessed that it'd place fourth this week).

Damn you Paul Blart. Damn you to hell. Denied me another PTA point for Bashir too. There is nothing good to say about that movie as far as my game is concerned!!

i took Paul Blart on a couple slates and its paying off. So i made a good choice there.