LOTL/Hangover Weekend Tracking

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LOTL/Hangover Weekend Tracking

Post by JackO on Mon Jun 01, 2009 3:11 am

RS 6/5 (includes TFRM2)
-- notfabio, May 31, 18:03
RS has been especially off lately (i.e. their mid 40's prediction on UP and advance #'s on DRAG ME TO HELL in the high 20's) even by their standards. Also, other services have PROPOSAL ahead of
YEAR ONE in most categories.

6/5:

LAND OF THE LOST: High 40's (however second guessing with "an opening in the 30's")

HANGOVER: Low 20's

RUINS: Mid Single Digits

Future:

Transformers: Mid 160's (5)
Imagine: Mid Teens
Pelham: Mid 30's
Proposal: Low 20's
Year One: High 20's
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Re: LOTL/Hangover Weekend Tracking

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Mon Jun 01, 2009 3:51 am

Transformers at 160 for the 5 day? Holy shit...

I'm hoping the Hangover hits at least somewhere in the 20s, but it should have good legs throughout June.

Pelham at mid 30s and LoTL in the 40s seems a bit high to me.
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Re: LOTL/Hangover Weekend Tracking

Post by BarcaRulz on Mon Jun 01, 2009 4:09 am

I think that LOTL number seems pretty high to be honest.

Hoping that The Hangover will open at around 25M. To be honest, if trailer reaction is anything to go by, then it would open to 100M.. Very Happy

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Re: LOTL/Hangover Weekend Tracking

Post by J.I. on Mon Jun 01, 2009 4:45 am

It really wouldn't be that suprising at all if Transformers got 160 million in 5 days. However, for this weekend LotL is the first time since Blades of Glory that Will Farrel's been in a PG-13 movie, most younger teens will be happy to welcome him back. And I love that notfabio included "even by their standards" after "RS has been especially off lately." Smile
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Re: LOTL/Hangover Weekend Tracking

Post by W on Mon Jun 01, 2009 9:32 am

Transformers 1 opened to $150, but no one was listening to me when I said that MONTHS ago...

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Re: LOTL/Hangover Weekend Tracking

Post by JackO on Mon Jun 01, 2009 8:19 pm

No offense, but it doesn't take a genius to know that Revenge of the Fallen is going to be a hit. Wink
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Re: LOTL/Hangover Weekend Tracking

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Mon Jun 01, 2009 10:07 pm

W, when you say open, do you mean it's first full week?
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Re: LOTL/Hangover Weekend Tracking

Post by W on Mon Jun 01, 2009 11:17 pm

No, midnight showings on Tuesday (technically wednesday) plus Wed-Sun (exactly what it will count for in the June Leagues. For a medium blockbuster (Pelham, LOTL, etc will/won't they reach $100 M?) price you get almost a surefire $150 M.

I'm not saying people didn't say it was going to be a hit, just don't think they looked at the scope of the first one and how much in brought in during its first weekend (plus 2 days). But in a cutoff league, you can't ask for more than a 7.5 x multiplier, especially one that's $19 or $20. If it's only 2/3 as big as its predecessor, then it'll hit a 5x.

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Re: LOTL/Hangover Weekend Tracking

Post by transformers2 on Tue Jun 02, 2009 12:39 am

its a tough call on Land On The Lost i am going to say Low 30's i dont think it will explode but i dont think it will tank. I hope The Hangover does in the 20's its getting a great trailer reaction so i can see it happening for sure.
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Re: LOTL/Hangover Weekend Tracking

Post by JackO on Tue Jun 02, 2009 12:46 am

MTC 6/5
-- notfabio, Jun 1, 15:31
30 Lost
27 Hang
2.5 Ruins
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Re: LOTL/Hangover Weekend Tracking

Post by W on Tue Jun 02, 2009 2:18 am

I think Hangover will beat LOTL. If not this weekend, then overall for sure.

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LOTL & Hangover Predictions

Post by Nycguy84 on Tue Jun 02, 2009 5:03 am

Land of the Lost - Is in a tough spot with its release date & it's unclear how much its going to pander to the family crowd. It's PG-13 & safe enough with Will Ferrell in a sci-fi comedy set up. For the weekend under 50 & definitely over 30. 36.5 mil for the weekend. (2nd place to UP, which is going to hold VERY well) Overall U.S gross predictions: 143 million.

Hangover - This could be good timing, the trailer works very well to pull in the young adult R-comedy crowd. Lack of stars but Old School didn't really see that as a problem either. Predictions: 21.5 for the weekend & 80 mil domestic gross.
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Re: LOTL/Hangover Weekend Tracking

Post by JackO on Tue Jun 02, 2009 6:37 am

This should be another interesting weekend. I think Up takes it though.
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Re: LOTL/Hangover Weekend Tracking

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Tue Jun 02, 2009 10:14 am

I'm hoping so much that The Hangover beats LoTL this weekend, Will Ferrell needs to learn how to really make a comedy. I don't think LoTL has an audience at all, it MAY have a nice OW but it'll tank afterwards. If it hits $30 this weekend, I can't seeing it grossing more than $70 total.

I'm also thinking The Hangover might have numbers like 20/90, or hopefully, even hitting $100 mill.
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Re: LOTL/Hangover Weekend Tracking

Post by Shrykespeare on Tue Jun 02, 2009 10:40 am

Is it just me, or do Banks's avatars just get sexier and sexier?


I think Up will repeat, dropping roughly 40% and earning about $40M. LOTL should take second, with Hangover a close 3rd.

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Re: LOTL/Hangover Weekend Tracking

Post by Buscemi on Tue Jun 02, 2009 10:57 am

I'll predict:

1.Up $42 million
2.Land Of The Lost $29 million
3.The Hangover $25 million

I don't expect Land Of The Lost or The Hangover to have good legs though. Land Of The Lost for obvious reasons (the film is alienating its target audience) but The Hangover for different reasons. The film doesn't have the star power of Wedding Crashers or the Apatow factor of Superbad and Knocked Up. It's basically a little comedy that is getting a big summer push due to a lack of summer product and because of the Mike Tyson cameo. In fact every time I saw the trailer in a theatre, that was the only thing that got a positive reaction. Everything was basically "been there, done that".

My Final Predictions:
Land Of The Lost 29/66
The Hangover 25/70

Also, I'm officially accepting Drag Me To Hell as a box office disappointment. Universal simply did not do a good job promoting this film. I mean they did a better job promoting State Of Play, a far lesser film with less appeal than Drag Me To Hell.

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Re: LOTL/Hangover Weekend Tracking

Post by W on Tue Jun 02, 2009 11:11 am

Both LOTL and the Hangover will hit $80 M with The Hangover doing the best. I have a feeling that whether most people on this board like The Hangover or not, it will have great word of mouth which = great legs.

What else could they do to promote Drag Me to Hell? It was on practically every network! The trailer was great by most accounts.

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Re: LOTL/Hangover Weekend Tracking

Post by JackO on Tue Jun 02, 2009 11:18 am

Has there ever been a weekend where two comedies opened well? I remember there was quite a few questions last year with Get Smart vs. Love Guru and such. I know Hangover is R and LOTL is PG-13 but with LOTL's identity crisis they both seem to be after the same folks.
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Re: LOTL/Hangover Weekend Tracking

Post by Buscemi on Tue Jun 02, 2009 11:21 am

There was hardly any awareness or pre-release hype for the film, W. The director's last three films grossed over $300 million domestically. Audiences should have been eagerly awaiting the director's return to the genre that made him a name. Instead, the studio chose to wait until freaking March to release a trailer (even films such as The Haunting In Connecticut had their trailers out by Thanksgiving) and they chose to release the film in only 2,400 theatres instead of the 3,000 that they could have easily released it in. In short, Universal could have had a hit in the vein of Wanted and Fast and Furious but instead treated it like Dead Silence and Slither but with a PG-13 rating.

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Re: LOTL/Hangover Weekend Tracking

Post by W on Tue Jun 02, 2009 11:23 am

I don't call LOTL's opening good (or my guess at it anyways) I don't see how it won't underperform. It should be a sure-fire $100 M +, but instead we're asking whether it'll be closer to $65 M or $80 M total...

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Re: LOTL/Hangover Weekend Tracking

Post by W on Tue Jun 02, 2009 11:27 am

I don't know how many people you think really go out and search for a film's trailer before it gets put on TV, but I'm telling you its less than one percent (except films like Twilight with most of the watchers being ravenous fan-people).

And if you think that more than a tenth of a percent of people that saw the Spider-man films said "That Sam Raimi is a great director, I'm going to see his next film." Then you are nuts as well. People don't know who directs what unless it's a Spielburg, Howard, Scorsesse, Spike Lee, Jackson, etc film.

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Re: LOTL/Hangover Weekend Tracking

Post by geezer9687 on Tue Jun 02, 2009 7:43 pm

I completely agree with that post W. Everything you said was spot on.

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Re: LOTL/Hangover Weekend Tracking

Post by J.I. on Tue Jun 02, 2009 10:13 pm

I agree W that people didn't necessarily want to see this for Sam Raimi, but they did know he was directing it. Its in every ad.
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Re: LOTL/Hangover Weekend Tracking

Post by JackO on Tue Jun 02, 2009 10:18 pm

Ouch. I can't believe it fell to 4th in the actuals. Now that's a buzzkill! Well, 2 points are better then no points.
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Re: LOTL/Hangover Weekend Tracking

Post by W on Wed Jun 03, 2009 8:01 am

J.I. wrote:I agree W that people didn't necessarily want to see this for Sam Raimi, but they did know he was directing it. Its in every ad.

I was responding to Buscemi's "his past three films made 300 M, so this should have done better" (paraprased) quote... Like they said, "Wow, he did the marvelous job with Spider-man 3: The Dawn of the Too Many Crappy Villians, so I am obviously seeing this film." Or that people that loved Evil Dead are a big enough audience to make a film huge...

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Re: LOTL/Hangover Weekend Tracking

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