Box Office Predictions For March and April

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Box Office Predictions For March and April

Post by Buscemi on Sat Feb 14, 2009 7:06 am

I remember that one of the best parts of the old forum was that we discussed box office predictions...and usually disagreed on them. Well, I'm here to bring that back we a list of opening weekend and final predictions for March and April. Everyone is invited to join.

And away we move!

Watchmen (March 6th)
$74 million opening (the film has basically no competition on opening weekend, 300 had Wild Hogs and Zodiac)
$250 million finish

Race To Witch Mountain (March 13th)
$28 million opening
$90 million finish

The Last House On The Left (March 13th)
$16 million opening
$40 million finish

Miss March (March 13th)
$2 million opening (Remember Sex Drive? Nobody else does.)
$5 million finish

I Love You, Man (March 20th)
$22 million opening
$57 million finish

Duplicity (March 20th)
$14 million opening (Julia Roberts is all wrong for this part and she's not the name she once was. But she should at least get a few asses in the seats.)
$45 million finish

Knowing (March 20th)
$12 million opening
$33 million finish

Monsters vs. Aliens (March 27th)
$45 million opening
$170 million finish

Adventureland (March 27th)
$10 million opening (I think this film will be a major disappointment compared to Superbad. The trailer makes it look like Garden State in Pittsburgh.)
$31 million finish

12 Rounds (March 27th)
$8 million opening
$20 million finish

The Haunting In Connecticut (March 27th)
$5 million opening (I believe audiences are sick of haunted house movies and the trailer makes it look too much like a modern-day version of An American Haunting)
$13 million finish

Fast and Furious (April 3rd)
$23 million opening
$54 million finish

Dragonball: Evolution (April 8th)
$6 million opening (this film looks like the decade's answer to Turbo: A Power Rangers Movie)
$14 million finish

The Hannah Montana Movie (April 10th)
$30 million opening
$57 million finish

Observe and Report (April 10th)
$15 million opening
$49 million finish

17 Again (April 17th)
$23 million opening (the girls go crazy for Zac Efron)
$65 million finish

Crank 2: High Voltage (April 17th)
$15 million opening
$35 million finish

State Of Play (April 17th)
$13 million opening
$40 million finish

Earth (April 22nd)
$16 million opening (Disney's going to promote this film pretty heavily and remember what March Of The Penguins did in 2005)
$45 million finish

Obsessed (April 24th)
$11 million opening
$28 million finish

Fighting (April 24th)
$8 million opening
$22 million finish

The Soloist (April 24th)
$6 million opening (multiple delays + awful trailer = major flop)
$20 million finish


Last edited by Buscemi on Sun Feb 15, 2009 6:32 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Box Office Predictions For March and April

Post by J.I. on Sat Feb 14, 2009 7:39 am

So do we have to predict all of them? Anyways...

Audiences don't care about multiple delays. Heck, they don't even know about them. It didn't hurt Valkyrie.

Watchmen:
70/210 (I can't see any reason for above or below 300)

Race to Witch Mountain
30/90

Knowing (after seeing Gran Torino, Paul Blart, Taken, and HJNTIY all perform way over expectations due to economy...)
30/90

Monsters vs. Aliens
50/160

Fast and Furious
40-45/110

Hannah Montana
30/70

17 Again
22/55
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Can't argue with most

Post by Nightbird on Sun Feb 15, 2009 6:16 am

I'm spitting in the wind here but these are my gut feelings.

Watchman (I get the feeling there will be some negative feeling about this, if they have stuck to the story, so it will start out big but won't make the 200 mill
70/190

Race to witch mountain (Disney, The Rock, Spring, most kid friendly film until Monsters)
45/120

Hannah Montana (Easter - I don't know what it's like over in the US but my mates girls here in UK go mad for that Cyrus kid)
50/85

Crank 2 People loved or hated the first one - personally I loved it. Hopefully it will get a better opening but won't be a runner.
35/45

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Re: Box Office Predictions For March and April

Post by Buscemi on Sun Feb 15, 2009 6:31 am

I've never heard of a film opening wide making 75-80% of its final total in the first weekend (unless it's Delgo), but very interesting nonetheless.

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Re: Box Office Predictions For March and April

Post by IPKI$$ on Mon Feb 16, 2009 3:54 am

I've missed this too.

Watchmen- Obviously, this has all the ingredients of a huge blockbuster, but I'm still wondering if "From the visionary director of 300" is enough to sell people outside of the graphic novel's fanbase who will most likely dismiss it as another comic book movie. I mean, yeah the trailer alone is the best movie i've seen so far this year, but i could see it putting off people who are getting tired of special effects laden superheroes in tights movies. I'm thinking a strong opening with solid, but not spectacular word of mouth, giving it legs in a fairly barren season. It really has no competition at all until Fast & Furious almost a month later. 75/200

Race to Witch Mountain- Can the Disney kid's comedy+ The Rock + Andy Fickman formula work twice in a row? Well, it's got a much better trailer than Bedtime Stories and that ONLY made $100 mil because of Adam Sandler. With good word of mouth, possible repeat veiwings due to the lack of quality children's fare until M vs. A, and nostalgia for the original, this could perform similarly to Enchanted. 40/140

Miss March- I love The Whitest Kids...for about three to four minutes at a time. And while I personally think this looks pretty funny, I don't think it looks good. And I'm pretty sure most people will feel the same. 10/20
P.S. for those of you who aren't familiar with The Whitest Kids, you should youtube them. Super Size Me with Whiskey is one of my favorites.

The Last House on the Left- So, this is already the third remake of a classic horror film to be released in the first quarter and I have to say that this one actually looks great- compared to the others. This is the director's first theatrical release, but I think that if this is any good it could sneak in under the radar and prove to have some pretty long legs. 15/50

Sunshine Cleaning- Talk about trying to duplicate success. Another quirky independent family-comedy with Alan Arkin and the word sunshine in the title. This one will suffer from trying too hard. I see no more than $15 mill.

The Horsemen- This might be good, but I have a feeling that TLHOTL opening the very next weekend will kill any chance of it staying around too long. $30mill.

I Love You, Man- Like Role Models and Forgetting Sarah Marshall just last year, I expect this to continue the successful raunchy romantic comedy with a heart trend of late. Paul Rudd is on his way up the leading man list, the trailer looks pretty damn funny, and there's nothing similar coming out this season. Good word of mouth will help this one to just past the other two films seeing as it has an ever so slightly wider appeal. 20/75

Duplicity- So far this month I have seen eleven movies in the theatre, and this trailer has been with at least half of them. Obviously, Julia Roberts isn't exactly the draw she once was, but with a combination of a familiar cast of fan-favorites, a fun and excitingly original trailer, and Michael Clayton director Tony Gilroy this should do at the very least The Mexican numbers. 30/70

Knowing- I THINK I understand what Summit is trying to do, and so far they've succeeded admirably, BUT after Next and Bangkok Dangerous this one seems ill-advised. Even moreso when you take into consideration the incredibly hit or miss appeal of Nicolas Cage and the relatively dull trailer. But wait. Isn't it directed by the guy who did I, Robot? I doubt anyone will care. 10/25

Monsters Vs. Aliens- This has no real direct competition and will likely not be effected too much by RTWM holdover, AND it's the first major animated film out of the gate. Plus it has a damn good trailer and the advertising has just been phenomenal...A repeat of Kung Fu Panda? In summer definitely. In spring, I'm still seeing damn good numbers. 40/175

Adventureland- While I think this looks funny, it just doesn't have the OOMPH that made Superbad such a big hit. Jesse Eisenberg has great potential, but his not being very familiar might kill any chances at a good haul. 15/35

12 Rounds- John Cena's first movie, The Marine, couldn't even make back it's $20million budget in 15 weeks. Admittedly it also looked worse, albeit not much, than this Die Hard wannabe. When Renny Harlin is being mentioned in the trailer as the main selling point and your trailer shows you everything that you would want to go see the movie for in the first place, you have a problem. <10/20

Fast & Furious- 8 years after the original made almost $150 mill., I have a hard time believing this, which looks more like a remake than a sequel, will be able to make even half that. But, while this doesn't appeal in any way shape or form to myself personally, seeing Vin Diesel come back to the disturbingly profitable franchise could be just what people need to pay ridiculous amounts of money to see the same shit a fourth time around. 45/135

Dragonball: Evolution- Now, I don't know too much about Dragonball Z to begin with, but I think this looks stupid beyond belief. Besides the hardcore fans of the anime, I don't see an audience for this terrible looking Mortal Kombat ripoff. 10/25

Hannah Montana: The Movie- Although it seems the Miley-mania has died down a tad, this should still get the kids in the seats. 20/45

Observe and Report- I'm sure everyone here is thinking the same thing...Had Paul Blart not just made over $100mil. just two months prior, this could be big. Fact is, people won't want to see a fat lovable mall cop twice in one year. No matter how vulgar he is. But, I might be underestimating Rogen's appeal here...He's proven that he can bring them in, I just think people will write this off since it's so close on Blart's heels. Good word of mouth is it's only hope. 15/40

State of Play- This looks okay at best. The trailer gives too much away, Russell Crowe and Ben Affleck both look bored to tears and this story has been done to death. This will play similar to Body of Lies. I think it will have a lackluster opening and will all but disappear within two weeks. <15/35

17 Again- Women love Zac Efron. And who the hell cares that it looks like the bastard film product of Big and It's a Wonderful Life? It'll be fun to watch Troy lead the wildcats to victory, win the girl back, and take his shirt off for no reason...again. 25/55

Crank: High Voltage- As cool as the first one was or was not, this is the EXACT same movie. Unfortunately, I don't think most people will notice that until they've told all of their friends how bad-ass it was. 15/30

The Soloist- With all due respect to Tony, Ray, and the guy who brought us Atonement and Pride & Prejudice, why should we see this after we watch the trailer? I mean, I really want to see it personally, but that's because I'm a film nerd and want to see it for the powerhouse performances we're sure to be treated to. I just don't see this connecting too much with mainstream audiences. 10/30

Fighting- Man, it feels that everything this season is trying to duplicate or improve on another film's success...BUT This actually looks damned good in my opinion. Ever since I saw him in She's the Man I knew Channing Tatum was gonna be big and this will likely be a good jump-off for him right before GI Joe. Like his Disturbia, only not as successful. 5/20

Obsessed- Really? No. I mean, come on. As much as this pains me to say...20/45

Maybe next time I'll just do a couple.
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Re: Box Office Predictions For March and April

Post by undeadmonkey on Mon Feb 16, 2009 5:11 am

I was agreeing with you throughout your post ipkiss, except for Obsession, that wont make $20M total.
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Re: Box Office Predictions For March and April

Post by Buscemi on Mon Feb 16, 2009 5:52 am

Sunshine Cleaning and The Horsemen are limited releases at most. I'd say Sunshine Cleaning's ceiling is $10 million (around the amount that The Visitor made) while The Horsemen's ceiling is $2.5 million (since it will be a very limited release).

Meanwhile, one reason of why Obsessed could do well: the writer also wrote Lakeview Terrace. That film made $40 million in September and is doing well in rentals. Sony will probably give the film a similar marketing campaign that mentions Lakeview Terrace heavily.

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Re: Box Office Predictions For March and April

Post by geezer9687 on Mon Feb 16, 2009 10:32 am

Rather than doing openings and totals, I think it will be better for me to discuss totals, top 5s and PTA numbers. I laid all of these out when I was pricing the upcoming movies and here's what I drew up. I didn't bother with totals for limited releases, just PTA numbers.
Total, Top 5, PTA
Watchmen- 180, 19, 11
I don't think it will be absolutely huge, but it has very little competition and will pull in the top 5s like mad. 180 is probably on the low spectrum, but I was being conservative. I don't think it will make more than 200 though, at least not by much.
12- 6 PTA points
Tokyo- 4 PTA points
The Horsemen- 2 PTA points
These three should come in behind Watchmen, plus whatever they get the week after
Race to Witch Mountain- 95, 10, 3
I can't see it beating Watchmen's second weekend, therefore limiting its top 5 and PTA potential. It also has Sunshine Cleaning to contend with.
The Last House on the Left- 20, 3, 0
Can't see it doing very well. I know it is bucking the trend, but hey, just my opinion.
Miss March- 15, 1, 0
And that's being generous.
Sunshine Cleaning- 13 PTA points
I see it winning consecutive weekends, then 3 more the following week. Not much competition on the limited front.
I Love You Man- 65, 12, 7
Not a very large box office number but it should hang around the top 5 for a long time. Only one film coming out in each of the next two weeks will really help this one out.
Knowing- 45, 2, 0
It could go bigger, but I just can't see it. Nicholas Cage isn't really all that reliable if its not a franchise film.
Duplicity- 40, 1, 0
Even less hope for this one.
The Great Buck Howard- 4 PTA
It has the advantage of coming out on a very soft weekend for limited openers and should be able to capitalize and grab some points.
Monsters vs. Aliens- 160, 10, 8
Hurt by the upcoming competition, but still going to rake in. PTA should be nice as well and the imdb score should be solid.
The Haunting in Connecticut- 20, 1, 0
Stay far away.
The Merry Gentlemen- 4 PTA points
Much like Buck Howard, should benefit from a weak limited release schedule on its weekend.
Fast and Furious- 80, 8, 5
I see it opening pretty big and then falling off the face of the earth. The people that want to see this garbage will show up opening weekend, then move on.
Paris 36- 7 PTA points
I'm hoping this gets a decently low price, as it could be a solid PTA earner. Seven is the floor.
The Escapist- 2 PTA
Alien Trespass- 1 PTA
Not much to say about these two, other than I kinda guessed that they will be bringing up the rear of Paris 36 for limiteds this weekend.
Hannah Montana- 75, 7, 7
Another big open and steep drop. IMDB score will probably be in the 3s. Risky selection.
Lymelife- 5 PTA points.
Another potential PTA steal.
Observe and Report- 60, 9, 3
Could have good legs and decent dollars and imdb. I think its a great pick in season 2, we'll see what it's priced at in round 3.
Dragonball- 35, 2, 0
No. Just no.
State of Play- 50, 9, 4
I personally think it looks fantastic, but I don't know how well it will do in late April.
17 Again- 25, 2, 0
Apparently some people think it will be a hit. I am not one of them. Buyer beware.
Crank 2- 20, 1, 0
Bomb bomb bomb bomb
American Violet- 7 PTA points
A good PTA pick, depending on price
Every Little Step- 3 PTA
Only if its really cheap.
The Soloist- 35, 7, 1
The toughest weekend to call, but I think RDJ is just hot enough to hold this shitty weekend down, then it will drop hard, like everything else released in April once Wolverine is released.
Obsessed- 35, 4, 0
I see it coming in a close second to the Soloist.
Fighting- 18, 1, 0
Earth- 11 PTA points
THIS IS A LIMITED RELEASE. I don't know if you understand this Buscemi. It doesn't appear so. However, as a limited release it should do very well.
The Informers- 7 PTA points
Should benefit from the lack of limited films coming out in early May.
The Mutant Chronicles- 3 PTA
Could also outright bomb.

Alright that's it right up until May when all hell breaks loose. Have fun guys.

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Re: Box Office Predictions For March and April

Post by Buscemi on Mon Feb 16, 2009 11:01 am

Earth is opening wide. At least 1,000 theatres are scheduled and many of those theatres have been selling tickets for months. Check some of the theatre chain websites if you don't believe me.

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Re: Box Office Predictions For March and April

Post by geezer9687 on Mon Feb 16, 2009 11:25 am

If that is the case, its just another mediocre opener fighting for air. What could have been a strong PTA film will now be drowned out and all but worthless. I wouldn't take it opening wide for more than 6 bucks. Opening limited I'd pay 10

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Re: Box Office Predictions For March and April

Post by IPKI$$ on Mon Feb 16, 2009 9:21 pm

I don't know, geez. The trailer is breathtaking and it is coming out on Earth Day. I think it'll fare pretty well. I know I'll be seeing it right after my Earth Day festivities.
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Re: Box Office Predictions For March and April

Post by transformers2 on Mon Feb 16, 2009 10:32 pm

Watchmen 65/210

Race To Witch Mountain 27/85

Adventureland 12/33

Monsters Vs Aliens 45/200

I Love You Man 17/65

Fast and Furious 30/125

Dragonball Evolution 10/30

The Haunting in Connecticut 7/20

Hannah Montana 25/65

Observe and Report 18/70

Crank High Voltage 15/50

State of Play 10/35

17 Again 20/65

The Soloist 9/30

Obsessed 11/36
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Re: Box Office Predictions For March and April

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:11 am

I'll just touch on some of the lineup here...

Watchmen (March 6th)
55/175 (Absolutely NO competition, but I don't know if it can bring in the general audience.)


Race To Witch Mountain (March 13th)
20/65 (It's not looking too good. Not the most advertising, Dwayne is still unproven as a "name". I don't think the sci-fi theme will help, especially with MvA coming 2 weeks later.)


The Last House On The Left (March 13th)
22/71 (I'm leaning towards the bigger end of horror remakes with this one. Not too many horror movies coming soon after it, and the trailer is amazing. Plus the whole parents-getting-revenge is a different angle.)


I Love You, Man (March 20th)
25/82 (Will probably play very similar to FSM.)


Duplicity (March 20th)
10/39 (Neither Clive Owen or Julia Roberts can bring em in based on name alone.)


Knowing (March 20th)
19/55 (For some reason, I'll think this'll do better than it should.)


Monsters vs. Aliens (March 27th)
68/220 (DW is on a roll right now and it doesn't look to stop here. 3D and IMAX 3D will help it also.)


Fast and Furious (April 3rd)
35/100 (With everyone coming back and looking like the biggest movie in April (maybe Observe & Report, though), I can see it doing relatively well)


The Hannah Montana Movie (April 10th)
27/65 (The whole Miley/Hannah thing has quieted down since last year, but I think she still has enough pull to at least match her concert film last year.)


Observe and Report (April 10th)
20/75 (I don't think it'll do as well as other Apatow/Rogen productions since it's a darker comedy, but I think it'll have good legs.)


17 Again (April 17th)
15/40 (HSM this is not. Zac Efron won't be enough here.)

Obsessed (April 24th)
24/57 (Even if it's a Fatal Attraction repeat, I think it'll pull people in. The focus on the fight between Beyonce and Ali Larter is a smart move by the marketing team.)
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Re: Box Office Predictions For March and April

Post by JackO on Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:49 am

I'll give it a run!

Madea - 35/65 - tracking in 30s
Fired Up - 3/7
Jonas Brothers - 35/75
Street Fighter - 8/17
Watchmen - 72/220 - tracking at 300 numbers
Race to Witch Mountain - 45/135 - tracking in 40s
Last House on the Left- 20/55
Miss March - 10/25
I Love You Man - 15/60
Duplicity - 20/100 - Only has a Summit release film and a delayed film to compete with plus it has an Academy Award nominated writer and director on it's side. Should get the Gran Torino folks.
Knowing - 8/20 - Also known as The Number 23
Monsters vs. Aliens - 75/245 - 3D rules
Adventureland - 15/85 - LEGS
Fast and Furious - 25/99
Hannah Montana - 42/82
Dragonball - 10/19/41
Observe and Report - 20/80
State of Play - 13/33 - Also known as Body of Lies. Crowe is not the pull he used to be.
17 Again - 35/110 - the hit you didn't see coming
Crank 2 - 15/35
Soloist - 12/26 - New year, what have you done for me lately? Overly pretentious Oscar bait film gets moved to the dregs of April? Hot streak over.
Obsessed - 5/15 - Beyonce can't open a film much less act in one.

Top 5 PTA Predictions

1. Sunshine Cleaning - 18 PTA - Really, the only prestige PTA pick of the the entire season.
2. Hunger - 10 PTA - Only opens in 1 theater, shouldn't expand at all
3. Sin Nombre - 8 PTA - Won't win weekend but will put up good numbers
4. Tyson - 6 PTA - Controversial star with a tell all, No limited release competition
5. Lemon Tree - 5 PTA - Israel was in the news recently and this film should benefit plus real limited release


FILMS I WILL AVOID LIKE THE PLAGUE


1. The Informers - Has worse negative buzz from early reviews then The Spirit. And it has a no name distributor.
2. Fired Up! - See Sex Drive
3. Dragonball Evolution - IMDB killer and won't get nearly enough top 5 to compensate
4. Street Fighter - Worst. Marketing. Ever.
5. The Great Buck Howard - See What Just Happened. Pretentious inside Hollywood films don't usually do all that well at box office. Also distributed by Mark Cuban's Magnolia.
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Re: Box Office Predictions For March and April

Post by geezer9687 on Tue Feb 17, 2009 8:03 am

I love it. JackO and I disagree on almost every possible movie. This is great. Good luck to you sir.

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