Christmas Movies Predictions

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Christmas Movies Predictions

Post by J.I. on Sun Nov 30, 2008 5:38 am

Christmas is extremely crowded this year with a ton of movies that have the potential to hit $100 million under the right conditions. So how will they play out together?

My predictions:

Bedtime Stories $150 million
Curious Case of Benjamin Button $65 million (could go a lot higher if the Oscar-buzz and the crowd pleaser buzz kick in at the same time.)
The Spirit $75 million
Revolutionary Road $105 million (assuming a Best Picture nomination and a big expansion)
Marley and Me $80 million
Hurricane Season $35 million
Valkyrie $50 million
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Re: Christmas Movies Predictions

Post by Buscemi on Sun Nov 30, 2008 6:45 am

Hurricane Season is opening in the spring. It moved a long time ago.

Meanwhile I see Marley and Me reaching $125 million, Bedtime Stories getting near $200 million, The Spirit making $55 million, Revolutionary Road making $45 million, The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button making $45-50 million (and being considered one of the biggest box office disasters ever in the process) and Valkyrie making $20 million (maybe more if it doesn't go wide on the 26th since nobody goes wide after Christmas).


Last edited by Buscemi on Sun Nov 30, 2008 8:31 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Christmas Movies Predictions

Post by undeadmonkey on Sun Nov 30, 2008 8:20 am

What do you mean nobody goes wide after christmas?
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Re: Christmas Movies Predictions

Post by Buscemi on Sun Nov 30, 2008 8:31 am

I mean, no studio would dare go wide shortly after Christmas. Valkyrie is listed as a wide release on December 26th. Unless December 26th is some esoteric Scientologist holiday, the wide date makes absolutely no sense.

Note: though December 26th is Boxing Day in some countries, it is not observed in the United States.
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Re: Christmas Movies Predictions

Post by JackO on Sun Nov 30, 2008 1:55 pm

This is United Artists we are talking about. I don't think they have much sense left! lol!
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Re: Christmas Movies Predictions

Post by numbersix_99 on Sun Nov 30, 2008 3:12 pm

Seven Pounds 150
Bedtime Stories 130
The Day the Earth Stood Still 100
Benjamin Button 60
The Wrestler 40
Gran Torino 35
Valkryie (test audiences laughed at how ridiculous it was) 30
The Spirit 40
Marley and Me 60
Tales of Desperaux 40
Reolutionary Road 40
Defiance 20
Last Chance Harvey 35

EDIT
Forgot...
Yes Man 100


Last edited by numbersix_99 on Mon Dec 01, 2008 3:55 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Christmas Movies Predictions

Post by SuperShaan on Sun Nov 30, 2008 4:24 pm

Bedtime Stories $195 million
The Day the Earth Stood Still $125 million
Seven Pounds $110 million
Curious Case of Benjamin Button $70 million
The Spirit $50 million
Revolutionary Road $45 million
The Wrestler $40 million
Marley and Me $80 million
Valkyrie $55 million
Tales of Desperaux $45 million
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Re: Christmas Movies Predictions

Post by transformers2 on Mon Dec 01, 2008 3:21 am

Bedtime Stories 180
The Day The Earth Stood Still 125
Seven Pounds 110
Yes Man 100
Marley and Me 95
Tale Of Desperaux 65
The Spirit 60
Ben Button 50
Valkyrie 45
The Wrestler 35
Gran Torino 35
Punisher:War Zone 35
Defiance 30
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Re: Christmas Movies Predictions

Post by geezer9687 on Mon Dec 01, 2008 3:31 am

Bedtime Stories 175
The Day The Earth Stood Still 140
Seven Pounds 140
Yes Man 100
Marley and Me 65
Tale Of Desperaux 80
The Spirit 45
Ben Button 90
Valkyrie 50
The Wrestler 25
Gran Torino 30
Punisher:War Zone 30
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Re: Christmas Movies Predictions

Post by JackO on Mon Dec 01, 2008 5:53 am

Bedtime Stories 200
The Day The Earth Stood Still 150
Seven Pounds 170
Yes Man 120
Marley and Me 45
Tale Of Desperaux 80
The Spirit 20
Ben Button 85 (with amazing legs)
Doubt 60
Valkyrie 35
The Wrestler 55
Frost/Nixon 35
Gran Torino 32
Punisher:War Zone 20
Delgo 12
Nothing Like The Holidays 40
Revolutionary Road 55
The Reader 30
Defiance 25
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Re: Christmas Movies Predictions

Post by Alyson on Mon Dec 01, 2008 10:00 pm

Bedtime Stories 175
The Day The Earth Stood Still 120
Seven Pounds 145
Yes Man 100
Marley and Me 85
Tale Of Desperaux 80
Ben Button 90
Doubt 45
Valkyrie 35
Frost/Nixon 35
Punisher:War Zone 25
Nothing Like The Holidays 45
Revolutionary Road 55
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Re: Christmas Movies Predictions

Post by J.I. on Sun Dec 07, 2008 11:48 pm

My theater is selling tickets to Valkyrie for Christmas Day. Did it get moved up a day? BOM never said anything about that.
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Re: Christmas Movies Predictions

Post by Buscemi on Mon Dec 08, 2008 12:47 am

Wow, Tom Cruise is finally making some sense.

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Re: Christmas Movies Predictions

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Mon Dec 08, 2008 7:07 am

Wow, I don't think anyone has a clue on how well (or terrible) Marley & Me will do. The predicts all over the board, we've got anywhere from $45 to $120.

This is def a wildcard. Dog movie on Christmas Day? How will it play in January, esp with Hotel For Dogs coming close behind it? Is Jennifer Aniston a BO draw - or is she strictly tabloid fodder? Who knows...?!?! Shocked
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Re: Christmas Movies Predictions

Post by Buscemi on Mon Dec 08, 2008 7:18 am

I see Hotel For Dogs being a non-factor. The film has no stars (unless you count Emma Roberts, whose last US release flopped) and Inkheart opens the same day, which has several stars.

And Fox lately (at least since 2003) has had a family film do well in December (Cheaper By The Dozen, Fat Albert, Cheaper By The Dozen 2, Night At The Museum, Alvin and The Chipmunks). Lately, the trailer has been appearing with some major Thanksgiving releases and should appeal to couples and families (similar to this summer's Wall-E but not as big).

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Re: Christmas Movies Predictions

Post by geezer9687 on Mon Dec 08, 2008 7:27 am

Advertising for Hotel for Dogs is already all over the place. I can't go to a mall without seeing the posters plastered all over everything. And its over a month out! I think it is going to be bigger than you might think.
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Re: Christmas Movies Predictions

Post by W on Mon Dec 08, 2008 7:29 am

Before you use some bad film language that you can't take back (flop, etc), Hotel for Dogs is a Nickelodeon film, which means that every kid on the planet with cable/satellite access will know of it. Though not probable, it wouldn't be extremely surprising to see it beat Inkheart, only mildly.

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Re: Christmas Movies Predictions

Post by silversurfer19 on Mon Dec 08, 2008 7:40 am

I have a feeling Marley And Me will be the bigger success of the dog movies. I know it is based on a very successful book, and the posters are sure to bring in all the 'awww-ing' female audience and kids.

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Re: Christmas Movies Predictions

Post by W on Mon Dec 08, 2008 7:45 am

Taking one of the two, yes, Marley will be bigger BO wise, but much more T5 and a chance for 1-2 PTA for Hotel.

2000 - Snow Day - $60 M ($78.8 adj. inf.) What I'm figuring... Not too shabby.

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Re: Christmas Movies Predictions

Post by Buscemi on Mon Dec 08, 2008 7:51 am

I remember seeing both teasers with Kung Fu Panda back in June. Hotel For Dogs have no reaction but Marley and Me got a great reaction from the audience made of mostly of families. So far, it seems that every Hotel For Dogs trailer has had little to no reaction but Marley and Me's trailers have had good to great reaction.

Plus, a lot of Hotel For Dogs's jokes in the trailers seem to border on lame or gross-out. It reminds me of Good Boy!'s trailers and mild performance back in 2003.


Last edited by Buscemi on Mon Dec 08, 2008 7:55 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Christmas Movies Predictions

Post by geezer9687 on Mon Dec 08, 2008 7:53 am

I've always wondered how so many people put so much stock in audience reaction of a trailer. It can't possibly have that much of an impact. It is just your one theater, which is a terrible sample to base anything on. I mean, if you did it 15 times, then you might have something. But I would never let a theater's audience reaction to a trailer be something I judge a film's potential box office on.
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Re: Christmas Movies Predictions

Post by W on Mon Dec 08, 2008 7:55 am

Doesn't matter... $50 Million will be easy for it. Nick + Cute Puppies = Big BO.

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Re: Christmas Movies Predictions

Post by JackO on Mon Dec 08, 2008 8:37 am

Emma Roberts, to me, is box office poison. She can't open a film.
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Re: Christmas Movies Predictions

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Mon Dec 08, 2008 11:35 pm

Buscemi wrote:I see Hotel For Dogs being a non-factor. The film has no stars (unless you count Emma Roberts, whose last US release flopped) and Inkheart opens the same day, which has several stars.

And Fox lately (at least since 2003) has had a family film do well in December (Cheaper By The Dozen, Fat Albert, Cheaper By The Dozen 2, Night At The Museum, Alvin and The Chipmunks). Lately, the trailer has been appearing with some major Thanksgiving releases and should appeal to couples and families (similar to this summer's Wall-E but not as big).

True. But look at BHC. No stars, lots of dogs, almost $100 million in the dead of October.

I don't think Hotel For Dogs will be a hit of any kind, but I do think it'll cut into Marley's legs come January.

I still have no idea how big Marley will be, I think it's already getting lost in the shuffle. Bedtime Stories will steal it's kid/family audience, and there's a lot of other choices for couples (Yes Man/Despereaux/Bedtime on the comedic side and Seven Pounds/Benjamin Button/Spirit/DTESS on the more action-serious side)
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Re: Christmas Movies Predictions

Post by geezer9687 on Mon Dec 08, 2008 11:38 pm

I agree, it will be lost in the shuffle. 40 million sounds about right to me.
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