Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

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Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

Post by BarcaRulz on Sat Oct 03, 2009 2:59 am

Well, five new wide openers this week; Zombieland, Whip It!, Invention of Lying, Capitalism: A Love Story, and Toy Story double feature.

On the limited front we have Afterschool (which actually looks interesting), Horse Boy, More than a Game, A Serious Man, Bright Star (317 theaters), The Boys are Back (expanding to 16).

It looks like most 'experts' are predicting that Cloudy will hold the number 1 spot for the third week running, bet no one saw that coming a month ago. Hell, I bet no one saw that coming a week ago.

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Re: Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

Post by thswrestler160 on Sat Oct 03, 2009 10:13 am

I really doubt cloudy will threepeat. The theaters in my town have basically been selling out every show of zombieland and the business for cloudy droped when toy story stole all of its 3d screens.

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Re: Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

Post by Shrykespeare on Sat Oct 03, 2009 10:53 am

I saw Invention of Lying at 4:45 pm today. Granted, Friday afternoons don't tend to sell out, but the theater I was in had only about 30 people.

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Re: Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

Post by BarcaRulz on Sat Oct 03, 2009 1:43 pm

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY & 3-DAY ESTIMATES FOR OCTOBER 2-4
1. NEW - Zombieland (Sony) - $8.5M Fri - $21.3M 3-day - $21.3M cume
2. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs (Sony) - $3.5M Fri - $15.9M 3-day - $81.6M cume
3. NEW - Toy Story/Toy Story 2 (Disney) -$3.7M Fri - $13.7M 3-day - $13.7M cume
4. Surrogates (Disney) - $2.3M Fri - $7.5M 3-day - $26.5M cume
5. NEW - The Invention of Lying (Warner Bros) - $2.2M Fri - $6.5M 3-day - $6.5M cume
6. Fame (MGM) - $1.5M Fri - $4.7M 3-day - $16.6M cume
*NEW - Whip It (Fox Searchlight) - $1.7M Fri - $4.4M 3-day - $4.4M cume
*NEW - Capitalism: A Love Story (Overture) - $1.3M Fri - $3.9M 3-day - $3.9M cume

Steve Masons numbers. Some surprising numbers in there.

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Re: Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

Post by numbersix_99 on Sat Oct 03, 2009 4:43 pm

Looks like I totally underestimated Zombieland- looks like horror comedy can work with a wide release. We'll be seeing plenty of these kinda films from next year onwards.
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Re: Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

Post by BarcaRulz on Sat Oct 03, 2009 5:06 pm

numbersix_99 wrote:Looks like I totally underestimated Zombieland- looks like horror comedy can work with a wide release. We'll be seeing plenty of these kinda films from next year onwards.

I hope you're right, I love horror-comedy.

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Re: Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

Post by thswrestler160 on Sat Oct 03, 2009 7:07 pm

well dhd paints a slightly differant and higher picture
zombieland 9/25
cloudy 4.9/20
toystory 3.8/15
invention 2.7/9
whip it 1.7/5
capitalism 1.6/5.5

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Re: Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

Post by transformers2 on Sun Oct 04, 2009 12:30 am

Zombieland is off to a good start! i am pretty excited i took this on most of my slates.
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Re: Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

Post by thswrestler160 on Sun Oct 04, 2009 2:52 am

great news for zombieland which actually did 9.4 on friday but on the limited side paranormal activity is predicted to bring in 500k in 33 theaters for a pta of 15k. the great part though is that all of the money it is making is for shows playing AFTER Midnight, selling out almost all of its shows.

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Re: Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

Post by johnErle on Sun Oct 04, 2009 12:24 pm

numbersix_99 wrote:Looks like I totally underestimated Zombieland- looks like horror comedy can work with a wide release. We'll be seeing plenty of these kinda films from next year onwards.

It still might be very heavily front-loaded, but nearly a 1:1 ratio after one day is nothing to sneeze at in this game.

In the real world, however, one good day for Zombieland won't make everyone forget about Jennifer's Body and all the other horror/comedy flops. Hits like Ghostbusters don't come along very often.
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Re: Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

Post by Buscemi on Sun Oct 04, 2009 12:26 pm

Zombieland is a fluke. Basically, it's Scream with zombies which is probably why it did well. When it's a horror comedy that follows horror conventions or attempts to be its own thing, then it's DOA to the studios.

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Re: Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

Post by W on Sun Oct 04, 2009 10:33 pm

Yep, Zombieland is a fluke. You can't make a good film (judging by the 8.5 rating #230 IMDB top 250) in a genre that traditionally underperforms or is mostly unknown, promote it well, and have it do good.

You're acting as if District 9 (entirely new genre IMO) and The Hangover (R rated comedies tending to underperform compared to PG13) showed you nothing this year. Not to mention Taken, a Jason Statham/Jean Claude/etc action film that was promoted well, was very good but had a less than well known actor. In my best Field of Dreams impression (which isn't very good) I would say, "If you make it good and market it well, they will come." Ok, that was a little long, but there are a couple of others I could throw in there, but don't want to.

You get the point, though, good film + great marketing = great gross with no regard to genre. It also must be mainstreamish.

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Re: Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

Post by Shrykespeare on Sun Oct 04, 2009 10:41 pm

BOM's Sunday Estimates:

Top 5:

5 points - Zombieland $25M
4 points - Cloudy $16.7M
3 points - Lying $7.35M
2 points - Surrogates $7.34M
1 point - either Whip It or Capitalism, it has both at $4.85M

PTA:

5 points - Serious Man $42K
4 points - More Than $14K
3 points - Coco $13.8K
2 points - Zombieland $8.2K
1 point - Cloudy $5.6K
Capitalism got 6th with $5K

So it looks like Capitalism might finish JUST outside the Top 5 in both categories. Bummer.

But get a load of the User Ratings for this week's films!

Serious Man - 8.7
Zombieland - 8.5
Invention of Lying - 7.7
Whip It - 7.6
More Than a Game - 7.4

So no one is hurting on that front, anyway.

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Re: Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

Post by Buscemi on Sun Oct 04, 2009 10:51 pm

In other news, Paranormal Activity's PTA actually increased in the second week (the per theatre average was $16,000). What's even more amazing is the fact that it is only playing at midnight and in early morning hours (the Empire 25 in New York City, for example, is currently playing the film on four screens but with only one show a day on each screen).

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Re: Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Mon Oct 05, 2009 1:51 am

Next week, Paranormal Activity will be playing during regular hours at all its locations. Plus, it'll probably expand a whole lot, maybe even get a wide release on October 30th since nothing else is coming out that weekend.
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Re: Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Mon Oct 05, 2009 1:53 am

Wow, Zombieland is at 8.5? Isn't that Top 250?

And I knew Whip It! wouldn't do too well, but all the late marketing got my hopes up.
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Re: Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

Post by Buscemi on Mon Oct 05, 2009 2:00 am

I expect Zombieland's rating to drop quickly once international audiences see the film. European and Australian audiences will likely see it as a clone of Shaun Of The Dead.

Meanwhile, here are the ten areas most likely to start Paranormal Activity on October 9th:

Boston
Portland
Kansas City
Pittsburgh
Toronto
Cleveland
El Paso, TX
Indianapolis
Salt Lake City
Hampton Roads, VA

And on October 16th:

Cincinnati
Charlotte
Oklahoma City
Milwaukee
Providence
Nashville
Hartford
Louisville
St. Louis
Jacksonville

I will be visiting Kansas City on the 12th and 13th so I will probably see it then.

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Re: Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

Post by W on Mon Oct 05, 2009 3:05 am

Yes, its top 250. I put that in the post you read, but you must have looked over it. It's #230. The 8.5 isn't counted as the rating for placement purposes, though because they use a slightly different formula for it. On the top 250 it is an 8.0.

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Re: Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

Post by J.I. on Mon Oct 05, 2009 6:39 am

Great for Zombieland. Toy Story also did well, and Cloudy continues to make a lot of money. It will be interesting to see how Paranormal Activity does next weekend.
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Re: Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

Post by Donte77 on Mon Oct 05, 2009 9:34 pm

I will be in Philly this weekend. I will have to see if Paranormal is playing there. I have wanted to see this fucking movie for about 2 years now.
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Re: Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

Post by brockman81 on Tue Oct 06, 2009 1:24 am

And the award for random curseword in a sentence goes to...
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Re: Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

Post by Donte77 on Tue Oct 06, 2009 1:49 am

hahah I get that award a lot, in real life and on the net. My wife says I remind her of Deb from Dexter. Wink
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Re: Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

Post by geezer9687 on Tue Oct 06, 2009 2:59 am

I love it! Seriously I am so happy that Zombieland is performing well so Buscemi can shut up about the horror comedy will never be a draw kick. Basically what W said. I haven't seen it yet, but my brother did and immediately upon leaving the theater called me and said "you HAVE to see this movie." Trailers and word of mouth sell movies like this. What part of Jennifer's Body's ad campaign even made it look comical? None that I could see. Kick ass!!!

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Re: Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

Post by Donte77 on Tue Oct 06, 2009 3:05 am

Didn't even want to see JB since Cody's dialogue sucks but Zombieland was awesome. Or to draw from the earlier conversation; Zombieland kicks a metric fuck-ton of ass.
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Re: Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

Post by Buscemi on Tue Oct 06, 2009 9:34 am

Latest on Paranormal Activity:

The newest demand strategy (starting today) is that if 1,000,000 demand it, then the film goes nationwide (I imagine on October 30th). So far, the demand number is over 360,000 with more people being added every few seconds. At the rate it is going, it should hit 1,000,000 by next Tuesday.

The current counter:
http://eventful.com/performers/paranormal-activity-/P0-001-000212499-6/competitions

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Don't see it alone.
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Re: Weekend Box Office (Oct 2nd-4th)

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