Weekend Box Office (Aug. 28 - 30, 2009)

It looks like the 3D edge on Final Destination should push it over Halloween in an interesting movie putting two horrors on the same weekend in the last weekend of the summer. Where everyone is in back to school mode which will put a damper on box office receipts. And why would the Weinstein Co. release films in back to back weeks of each other and two films which will be taking audiences from each other.

My predictions:

1. Final Destination - 21.5
2. Halloween 2 - 20
3. Inglorious Basterds (drops 55-58%)

Rounding out predictions to end the summer. Inglourious Basterds gets to 100-105 mil, District 9 around 100 mil, Final Destination and Halloween in the 55-60 mil range.

Because The Weinstein Company people are dumb. Back when they were at Miramax, they would typically open more than one film ON THE SAME DAY.

Meanwhile, I expect $30 million on The Final Destination and a 65-70% drop on Inglourious Basterds (it seems like everyone who wanted to see it already has).

Yeah, I'm surprised everyday that the Weinsteins are still in business.

Here are the ComingSoon predictions:

1. The Final Destination (New Line/WB) - $20.6 million N/A

2. Inglourious Basterds (The Weinstein Company/Universal) - $17.0 million -55%

3. Halloween II (Dimension Films) - $16.7 million N/A

4. District 9 (Sony) - $10.0 million -45%

5. G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra (Paramount) - $6.5 million -46%


Meanwhile, here are mine:

1. The Final Destination - $23M
2. H2 - $19M
3. Inglourious Basterds - $16M
4. District 9 - $9M
5. GI Joe - $7M

(And is it me or has there been a shitload of GI Joe commercials lately - even more than before it came out?)

im not really sure where buscemi gets the idea that everyone who wants to see Inglorious Bastards has...i would be shocked if it dropped over 60%. I think somewhere between 52-57% is more likely.

Final Destination should win easily..it has had a much stronger mareting blitz then Halloween. I think Final Destination should win easily with something in the mid to upper 20's and Halloween misses will something around 15mill.

District 9 should see about a 40% drop due to the competition.


and everything not rated r should do well this weekend. Time Travler should level off much like My Sisters Keeper. This drop last weekend reflects a rush by fans of the book more than it does poor word of mouth

I actually agree with boosh, i see basterds dropping far. Also think FD4 will beat out H2

I am expecting a 50-56% drop on Inglorious Basterds and i think H2 will win the weekend over Final Destination.

I can't see H2 winning tranny. I think the 3D should put TFD ahead, let's be honest, we've all seen peoples brains splattered, now we want to see it in 3D..

I think alot of people will think along that line. I for one hated the last FD movie, hated the trailer, and i'm still going to watch it just for the 3D.

Would be very surprised, and very pleased, if H2 won though.

I went to a 5:00 pm show of Halloween II and there were probably about 15 people total in the theatre. Everyone seemed to like it though.

Meanwhile, a showing of Inglourious Basterds at the same theatre starting at 4:30 pm was about half-filled.

I saw Inglourious Basterds on Thursday and there were 5 people in the whole theater, including the 3 of us.

Must be the Brad Pitt factor here. His movies always seem to open on two screens at the biggest theatre and get decent crowds.

Here are Steve Mason's estimates:


EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON FRIDAY & 3-DAY ESTIMATES FOR 9/28-9/30
1. The Final Destination (Warner Bros) - $10.5M Fri - $26.3M 3-day - $26.3M cume
2. Halloween 2 (Weinstein) - $6.9M Fri - $16.8M 3-day - $16.8M cume
3. Inglourious Basterds (Weinstein) - $5.5M Fri - $17.7M 3-day - $71.4M cume
4. District 9 (Sony) - $3M Fri - $10.3M 3-day - $90.4M cume
5. GI Joe: The Rise of the Cobra (Paramount) - $2.2M Fri - $7.3M 3-day - $131.7M
*Taking Woodstock (Focus) - $1.4M Fri - $3.9M 3-day - $3.9M cume

So, he predicts IB coming in second, then?

Inglourious Basterds' drop will be smaller than 50%, judging from the Friday crowds.

TFD and H2 playing out as most expected. Although that IB drop is ridiculous, that is a very good hold.

No Surprises Here. I didnt think final Final Destination would get High 20's i was thinking more low 20's.

Things are just about as expected.

Friday EST:

1. Final Destination - $10.9M
2. Halloween 2 - $7.6
3. Inglourious Basterds - $5.9M
4. District 9 - $3M
5. G.I. Joe - $2.3M

The box office:

1.The Final Destination
2.Inglourious Basterds (with only a 47% drop)
3.Halloween II

PTA champ: The September Issue (with $40,000 per theatre)

Also with low drops: Julie and Julia, Ponyo, The Hangover (dropped just 2% in its 13th week of release)

Weekend Est:

1. The Final Destination - $28M
2. Inglourious Basterds - $20M
3. Halloween - $17M
4. District 9 - $10M
5. G.I. Joe - $8M

PTA Est:

5 points - The September Issue
4 points - Big Fan
3 points - The Final Destination
2 points - My One And Only
1 point - Inglourious Basterds


Wow, some very low drops this weekend, probably because two horror films aren't going to be everyone's cup of tea.


GI Joe -34%
Julie & Julia -15%
Shorts -24%
The Hangover -1.6% (!!!!!!)
500 Days of Summer -9%
Ponyo -19%
Harry Potter - 24%

And Harry Potter 6 officially is now the 2nd highest grossing movie of the series with $294M. And Transformers STILL hasn't hit $400M.

Inglourious Basterds is already at $73M after only two weekends. Didn't expect that.

Well, it's not set in stone, but here are the preliminary awardees and oustees in the Super Leagues:


Ult FY

+IMs: none (geezer and jas already have them)
-IMs: Scripps, Buscemi
Out: Dantic, englishozzy, transformers2, jfs556

Halloween saved Mister Informative's keester.


Ult HY

+IMs: longhorn419, geezer, jas
Out: binkley, Alyson, Lordagoth, jfs556, wesvolk, donnie

Final Destination pulled Scripps' tush out of the fire.


BO FY

+IMs: BarcaRulz, undeadmonkey
-IMs: Chienfantome
Out: smee2000, jfs556, TBB, brockman81, jjtkaze

There will be 25 players left, and ELEVEN have IMs. Wow.


BOHY

+IMs: Chienfantome, BarcaRulz, undeadmonkey, W
Out: Nightbird, Alyson, smee2000, jfs556, wesvolk, leestu, Lordagoth

numbersix survives by less than $8 million.

Poor jfs556; he got cut in all four tournaments this month. Light a candle for him, and Alyson, who is also done for the year.


And Transformers WILL get there. It's got less than $1M to go. HP6 reaching $300M is less certain.

Oh, almost forgot:

Ultimate Regulars - "Lost"

Too close to call. As it stands right now, it will end in a TIE between geezer and jas. Who wins may come down to User Rating changes. Or, we could have our second-ever tie.


Box Office Regulars - "Alfred Hitchcock"

W wins. BarcaRulz comes in 2nd, brockman takes 3rd. These three were the only ones to cross $1B.

And once again showing the power of 3-D on movie audiences, 70% of The Final Destination's gross came from the 3-D prints.

Uh, with the Box Office Mojo actuals in, there must be a mistake: no way that GI Joe lost that many theaters and had the second best pta this past weekend, right? It currently lists 346 theaters with it earning 7.7M.

It's an error.