Weekend Box Office (Sep 2 - 4)

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Weekend Box Office (Sep 2 - 4)

Post by Nycguy84 on Tue Sep 01, 2009 6:51 pm

Here's my Top 5 projections.

1. Gamer: 17.5 - 20
2. All about Steve: 11 - 13.5
3. Final Destination 4: 10.5 - 12
4. Inglourious Basterds: 9.5 - 11
5. Halloween 2: 7 - 8

Extract: 5 - 6.5
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Re: Weekend Box Office (Sep 2 - 4)

Post by transformers2 on Tue Sep 01, 2009 8:09 pm

Here is what i am going to project

1. Gamer $17 Mill
2.All About Steve $13 Mill
3.Final Destination $10.5 Mill
4.Inglorious Basterds 10 Mill
5.H2 $7 Mill
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Re: Weekend Box Office (Sep 2 - 4)

Post by BarcaRulz on Tue Sep 01, 2009 9:21 pm

At first I thought All About Steve would easily win this weekend, but after the trailer and the weak reaction, i'm gonna agree with Gamer for the #1 spot.

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Re: Weekend Box Office (Sep 2 - 4)

Post by A_Roode on Wed Sep 02, 2009 6:43 am

"Whoever Wins... We Lose."
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Re: Weekend Box Office (Sep 2 - 4)

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Wed Sep 02, 2009 9:14 am

I swear that I posted in here earlier...
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Re: Weekend Box Office (Sep 2 - 4)

Post by BarcaRulz on Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:06 pm

from boxofficeguru:


THIS WEEKEND Sandra Bullock and Gerard Butler both scored hit comedies this summer, but the two now face-off with new releases entering the marketplace for the long Labor Day holiday weekend which officially ends the summer movie season. Butler looks to flex more muscle with the action entry Gamer while Bullock stays in romantic comedy mode with All About Steve. Another comedy hitting theaters is Extract from director Mike Judge who aims to offer a different type of humor. Look for the box office to easily beat last year's holiday numbers.

Gunning for young men, Lionsgate releases Hollywood's seventh R-rated wide release of the last four weeks with Gamer. Butler plays the superstar of a futuristic online system where players control real people in a first person shooter game. The intriguing storyline and action-packed TV spots should excite a solid amount of moviegoers to give this a try. Butler provides good starpower and is in the type of gladiator role that fans may just want to see him in. Competition will be a factor as there already are a number of violent action and horror films out there doing well with male audiences. But Gamer provides something new and should play to frequent ticket buyers who have already seen everything else. Opening in 2,502 theaters, Gamer may gross about $15M over the four-day Friday-to-Monday span.

Looking for commercial extremes, Sandra Bullock follows her top grosser ever with another romantic comedy which is likely to become one of her weaker efforts. All About Steve finds the popular actress playing a clingy loser who stalks a man across the country thinking that he is attracted to her. Thomas Haden Church and Bradley Cooper co-star. Fox is putting only so much of a push behind this formulaic vehicle which hopes to attract women at a time when the marketplace is flooded with violent blood-soaked offerings. But the product is not too strong and the target audience won't be very thrilled with seeing such a weak and annoying woman be the central character of a film. Some short-term business will result, but large drops await in the weeks ahead. Entering about 2,000 theaters, All About Steve could gross about $9M over the four-day holiday frame.

Director Mike Judge follows up on his 1999 cult hit Office Space with another workplace comedy in Extract. Miramax is not giving the R-rated pic a release that is too aggressive as it will only roll out in about 1,600 locations. Jason Bateman, Mila Kunis, Kristen Wiig, and Ben Affleck star. Judge built up a huge fan following with his Lumbergh flick, but much of that will be wasted as only a portion of that crowd will actually pay to see Extract. Starpower from the cast isn't too formidable either and reviews have only been mixed. A four-day tally of about $6M could result.

Horror fans got their 3D kicks last weekend with The Final Destination which should have a steep fall, although the four-day gross will not see the usual steep decline from the three-day debut. With so many students now back in school, weekday grosses have been good but have not been in the same league as films from the last few weeks. A 40% drop would give Warner Bros. about $16.5M over the Friday-to-Monday span giving the fright sequel $52M in 11 days.

Quentin Tarantino's Inglourious Basterds has won over some fans so many who have heard about it will catch up on the buzz. A 20% fall to around $15M would give The Weinstein Co. a sturdy $95M cume. The company's horror sequel Halloween II should suffer the worst decline in the top ten as it is losing audiences fast. A three-day-to-four-day fall of 45% would result in a $9M take over the long weekend for a total of $29M after 11 days. Sony's District 9 will hold up much better and might slip by 15% to roughly $8.5M putting the sum for the alien saga at $103M.

The Final Destination - $16.5m 4-day
Gamer - $15m 4-day
Inglorious Basterds - $15m 4-day
All About Steve - $9m 4-day
Halloween 2 - $9m 4-day
Extract - $6m 4-day

Some shocking forecasts for All About Steve and H2s drop. TFD and IB look in for good drops if those predictions hold anywhere near true.

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Re: Weekend Box Office (Sep 2 - 4)

Post by Buscemi on Fri Sep 04, 2009 2:33 am

3-day:
The Final Destination $11 million
Gamer $10 million
All About Steve $9 million
Inglourious Basterds $9 million
Extract $6 million
Halloween II $5 million

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Re: Weekend Box Office (Sep 2 - 4)

Post by Shrykespeare on Fri Sep 04, 2009 10:16 am

Jesus Mary and Joseph.

All About Steve now has 34 professional reviews in the can at Rotten Tomatoes:

Guess how many positive ones?

Zero.


Some of the cooler quotes:

"I was praying for the ghost of Paul Newman to save me."

"I suspect that this is a film that speaks to those who believe Every Breath You Take is a love song."

"This is easily the single worst film that Sandra Bullock has been involved with and bear in mind, I have seen "Speed 2.""

"If you ever wanted to know what kind of movie plays deaf children falling into a sinkhole for laughs, look no further. "

"Somewhere, like the pea in the bed of the princess, is an idea that could be interesting. Unfortunately, it's smothered in 20 mattresses of awful and 20 more of dumb."

"...features the singular most awful line of dialogue in a movie this year - when Mary responds to an imaginary question as to why she always wears those red boots it is because 'they make my toes feel like ten happy friends on a camping trip.' Say WHAT?"


I knew this one was a dog's dinner. $9 million is looking optimistic now.

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Re: Weekend Box Office (Sep 2 - 4)

Post by johnErle on Fri Sep 04, 2009 4:00 pm

I wish I'd known about the three-legged baby subplot last month. Then I never would have saved a spot for this apparent turkey and might've had enough sense to pick District 9.

Thank FSM I saw the early reviews and had time to switch Steve for Gamer, which looks like utter garbage, but profitable garbage.
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Re: Weekend Box Office (Sep 2 - 4)

Post by Shrykespeare on Sat Sep 05, 2009 5:17 am

Profitable? Not hardly, when you consider it's pricetag.

First week of September is box office poison. About the only hope you may have is picking up some Top 5 points (if that's where you're lacking) and scoring some cheap PTA points (assuming Amreeka or No Impact Man do their jobs).

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Re: Weekend Box Office (Sep 2 - 4)

Post by Buscemi on Sat Sep 05, 2009 5:20 am

I think I talked my mother out of seeing All About Steve after I told her about the three-legged baby subplot and the fact that it is a romantic comedy about a psycho.

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Re: Weekend Box Office (Sep 2 - 4)

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Sat Sep 05, 2009 8:52 am

Three legged baby? What are guys talking about?

I had such high hopes for Steve, damn you once again Fox. I will trust only Fox Searchlight from now on. And only with limited releases with them, after Notorious.
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Re: Weekend Box Office (Sep 2 - 4)

Post by Buscemi on Sat Sep 05, 2009 9:06 am

There is a subplot in All About Steve where Bradley Cooper's character has to film a news story in Oklahoma involving a three-legged baby. The parents (played by Katy Mixon and DJ Qualls) are in a battle over if the baby should keep the leg or not. And apparently this is a major part of the film.

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Re: Weekend Box Office (Sep 2 - 4)

Post by johnErle on Sat Sep 05, 2009 12:59 pm

Shrykespeare wrote:Profitable? Not hardly, when you consider it's pricetag.

I'm not expecting any miracles, but I was running out of options in that league, and a 4-5x multiplier seems possible since I only spent $8 on it. Hopefully it'll be enough to keep me alive for another round.
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Re: Weekend Box Office (Sep 2 - 4)

Post by Shrykespeare on Sat Sep 05, 2009 1:03 pm

The news gets worse, according to Mase:

Labor Day weekend is Hollywood's traditional dumping ground for bad movies with little commercial upside. 2009 is no exception.

Sandra Bullock is coming off of her gigantic hit The Proposal ($160M domestic cume) and Bradley Cooper starred in the year's 4th-biggest movie The Hangover ($270.6M domestic cume), so Fox is hoping to get one weekend of reasonable business out of All About Steve despite some of the worst reviews of 2009. The plan has worked to some degree as the standard issue rom-com scored an estimated $3.6M in Friday ticket sales, which could translate to an $11.2M 3-day and a possible $14.2M holiday weekend. That may be enough to eke out a narrow win for the frame.

Quentin Tarantino's Inglourious Basterds (Weinstein) is holding up very well as the 25+ audience discovers the movie. The picture managed $2.9M to start the weekend (#3 for the day), and it appears to be headed for a strong second-place finish for 4 days with something close to $14M. That pushes Basterds past $100M in the US. Meanwhile, The Final Destination (Warner Bros) grabbed another $3.5M on its second Friday and seems destined for about $13.9M. (These 3 movies are essentially in a dead heat, but I'm guessing All About Steve has the best shot of coming out on top.)

Gamer (Lionsgate) is targeting $10M for the long weekend, a definite disappointment, while Mike Judge's Extract (Miramax), on fewer screens (just over 1,600), may reach a possible $5.6M by Monday night. Finally, Tranformers Revenge of the Fallen (Dreamworks/Paramount) will pass $400M some time this Labor Day weekend.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY, 3-DAY & 4-DAY ESTIMATES - SEPTEMBER 4-7
-in order of projected 4-day gross-
1. NEW - All About Steve (Fox) - $3.6M Fri - $11.2M 3-day - $14.2M 4-day - $14.2M cume
2. Inglourious Basterds (Weinstein) - $2.9M Fri - $11M 3-day - $14M 4-day - $105.2M cume
3. Final Destination 3D (Warner Bros) - $3.5M Fri - $11.5M 3-day - $13.9M 4-day - $25.4M cume
4. NEW - Gamer (Lionsgate) - $2.7M Fri -$8.2M 3-day - $10M 4-day - $10M cume
5. GI Joe: The Rise of the Cobra (Paramount) - $1.2M Fri - $4.8M 3-day - $6.2M 4-day - $145.3M cume
*Halloween 2 (Weinstein) - $1.6M Fri - $5M 3-day - $6M 4-day - $26M cume
*NEW - Extract (Miramax) - $1.4M Fri - $4.5M 3-day - $5.6M 4-day - $5.6M cume


Steve wins and Gamer doesn't even break the Top 3? Say it ain't so..... And where the hell is District 9 in this list?


In any case, the following milestones will be reached this weekend:

Inglourious Basterds - $100M
District 9 - $100M
Transformers - $400M

Meanwhile, HP6 is just over $4M shy of $300M, and is down to 1,000 theaters. Don't know if it will make it.

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Re: Weekend Box Office (Sep 2 - 4)

Post by mfrendo on Sat Sep 05, 2009 1:52 pm

I think I actually kept Steve in some leagues, os if that's the case, sweet. Really fucking wish I had gotten Ing Basterds when I had the chance now though...
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Re: Weekend Box Office (Sep 2 - 4)

Post by Shrykespeare on Sun Sep 06, 2009 7:35 am

Wow. The Friday results from BOM are damn near a four-way dead heat.

1. Final Destination - $3.575M
2. All About Steve - $3.570M
3. Gamer - $3.300M
4. Basterds - $3.000M

7. Extract - $1.360M
Carriers - $21,000 (in 100 theaters, one of which was the one I went to tonight).

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Re: Weekend Box Office (Sep 2 - 4)

Post by Shrykespeare on Sun Sep 06, 2009 11:21 pm

Sunday estimates:

Top 5:

5 points - Final Destination, $12.4M
4 points - All About Steve, $11.2M
3 points - Inglourious Basterds, $10.8M
2 points - Gamer, $9M
1 point - District 9, $7M


PTA:

5 points - Amreeka
4 points - The September Issue
3 points - My One and Only
2 points - All About Steve
1 point - Final Destination

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Re: Weekend Box Office (Sep 2 - 4)

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Sun Sep 06, 2009 11:47 pm

Extract was doomed from the beginning...

Very surprised at the holds from The Final Destination, District 9, IB, and especially Julie & Julia.
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Re: Weekend Box Office (Sep 2 - 4)

Post by Shrykespeare on Mon Sep 07, 2009 12:12 am

The ironic thing is that FD didn't "hold" very well. It dropped 54%. And STILL won. That's how bad this weekend is for movies.

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Re: Weekend Box Office (Sep 2 - 4)

Post by undeadmonkey on Mon Sep 07, 2009 6:05 am

wow, how many PTA points is that now for My One and Only?
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Re: Weekend Box Office (Sep 2 - 4)

Post by Shrykespeare on Mon Sep 07, 2009 7:58 am

That makes 10 in all. Guess Renee Z can still draw 'em after all.

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Re: Weekend Box Office (Sep 2 - 4)

Post by BarcaRulz on Mon Sep 07, 2009 8:51 am

Damn.. I had Amreeka on all my slates but dropped it from all of them at the last minute. Goddamit!

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