SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 8/14 - District 9, The Time Traveler's Wife, Bandslam, The Goods, et al.

Well, as we plod our way through the remnants of summer, it is time for me to put electronic pen to virtual paper my final column before I officially reach the dreaded “middle” age. Come Monday, August 17th, I will be a “quatrogenarian”. I will be but ten short years away from “fogyhood”. Yeah, I know, turning 40 is nothing to be ashamed of, but then, it isn’t really something to look forward to, is it? I guess I can finally kiss my childhood dream of becoming an Olympic gymnast goodbye…

I have a lot of films to talk about today, so I won’t mince words or dally any longer. There are a total of seven films coming out the weekend of August 14th (four wide, three limited), and I’ve only got so much room before I hit the dreaded “you have exceeded the maximum post length” wall, so here we go!

The final movie I will see in theaters in my 30s will be District 9, the first film in four years that Lord of the Rings director Peter Jackson had a hand in. The New Zealand native, who has The Lovely Bones coming this winter and The Hobbit in years ahead, is not actually in the director’s chair this time (he’s the producer) – that honor has been ceded to Jackson’s friend, South African director Neill Blomkamp, a name you probably don’t know. But you will, friends…

It’s interesting… various trailers for the film have drawn comparisons to films as diverse as Transformers, Cloverfield, Alien Nation and Black Hawk Down. The movie takes place mostly in South Africa, where a group of scary-looking aliens apparently made landfall nearly three decades earlier. The last survivors of their home world, they arrived not as conquerors or benefactors, but as refugees. There was no attack, no advances in technology, no nothing. Unsure of what to do with them, a section of Johannesburg (deemed “District 9”) was cordoned off and given to the aliens, where they have stayed ever since, while humanity’s growing unease seethes outside their walls. Control of the aliens was given over to a government agency called the MNU (Multi-National United), and the film picks up when a field operative named Wikus (Sharlto Copley) contracts – through contact with an alien device - a mysterious virus that starts changing his DNA. And very soon, Wikus becomes the most hunted man in the world.

In case you didn’t know, this film made its world premiere at Comic-Con last month, and its reception was, to say the least, overwhelmingly positive. What few professional critics have seen it have had nothing but good things to say about it (hence it’s current “100% Fresh” rating on RT).

It’s no secret that Blomkamp grew up under the oppressive system of Apartheid, and it is very interesting the parallels he made with District 9. I give a lot of credit to him and to Sony Screen Gems for letting WOM spread slowly, giving almost nothing away about the direction of the plot, and pique my personal interest and not letting go.

Despite the fact that Blomkamp is, for all intents and purposes, a first-time director, and despite the fact that there is not even one person in the cast whose name I recognize, I cannot wait to see this film. I also could not wait to include it on virtually every one of my slates, as I think that District 9 may turn out to be the steal of August. It is only $13 in the August Ultimate leagues ($12 in Box Office), and even though G.I. Joe made a tremendous OW, I think it’s just possible that District 9 can pull $30 million in its first three days. Yeah, I know, that’s a tall order, especially given that it will be showing in nearly 1,000 fewer theaters, but I have every confidence. (Hey, if I don’t go out on a limb every now and then, what’s the point?) In all, I predict ten Top 5 points, four PTA, and a very respectable User Rating (over 7). If you passed on G.I. Joe – or even if you didn’t – take District 9. You probably won’t regret it.

The next movie on the docket is also a sci-fi film, but only just. It is called The Time Traveler’s Wife, and it is based on the best-selling novel by Audrey Niffenegger. It is a love story about a man named Henry DeTamble (Eric Bana), who has a genetic disorder so radical that it actually causes him to travel in time when he becomes stressed. But that doesn’t stop painter Clare Abshire (Rachel McAdams) from falling hard for, and eventually marrying, him.

I’ve seen the trailers, and I understand the premise, and it’s all very romantic, but there’s something about this idea that strikes me as a tad unbelievable. And no, I don’t mean the concept of a genetic disorder that can cause time-shifting, but the notion than an intelligent woman would knowingly give her heart to someone who could conceivably disappear one minute later, and not appear again for perhaps many years. I’m not an expert on matters of the heart, not at all, but I would wager that the film’s climax will be as sappy as a maple orchard.

Another thing I don’t like? Eric Bana. Oh, he was outstanding as the villainous Romulan captain Nero in Star Trek this past May, but let’s face it, he was barely recognizable. He’s only a passable actor in a serious role like this, and I also believe that there are many many actors out there with more charisma than he. And did you know this film was actually supposed to be released LAST FALL? This title has been shipped around the release schedule for over a year now, and the fact that it is New Line Cinema doing the distributing gives me great pause indeed.

I try not to let bias get in the way of making picks for my slate, but there is nothing you could say to me to convince me to put The Time Traveler’s Wife on my roster. It’s only $11 (in both leagues), but I think that it will be lucky to pull five Top 5 points, maybe one or two PTA points, and a rating in the low 6’s. Not enough for me to recommend it.

Remember an actor named Todd Graff? He had small roles in a few films in the late 80’s and early 90’s (I’ll always remember him as Hippy, the guy with the pet rat in The Abyss). Well, like many actors, he chose to try his hand behind the camera, and his second-ever project hits theaters this Friday. It is called Bandslam, and it comes six years after Graff’s first outing, Camp.

Bandslam tells the story of Will (Gaelan Connell), a very unpopular high-school kid, who is amazed when a former cheerleader named Charlotte (Aly Michalka), impressed by his eclectic musical knowledge, asks him to manage her rock-ska fusion band. Her ultimate goal? To get revenge on her ex (Scott Porter) at a regional “battle of the bands”. Friends’ Lisa Kudrow and HSM's Vanessa Hudgens also co-star.

Scheduled for release in just over 2,000 theaters, Bandslam is gregariously priced at $7 in Ultimate ($8 in Box Office), but you may want to exercise caution here. Many teen movies have come and gone without so much as a blip in the last year (the latest being I Love You, Beth Cooper, which failed to even reach $15 million), and I don’t expect Bandslam to, either. I did hear a rumor that the film would be accompanied by the first full-blown trailer for The Twilight Saga: New Moon, but a) I don’t know if that has any basis in fact, and b) it’s still not enough for me to spend that kind of money on it, not when there are much better picks for about the same price. Maybe one or two Top 5, no PTA, and a subpar User Rating will kill your studio in Ultimate; it might be better in Box Office, but I doubt it.

When exactly was it that Jeremy Piven appeared on our radar? Was it because of his roles in RockNRolla, The Kingdom, Smokin’ Aces and Old School? Or as it when his hot-as-hell HBO series Entourage debuted? Well, whenever it was, the 44-year-old actor is living high off the hog now. And now, he takes the lead in a little film called The Goods: Live Hard, Sell Hard (formerly The Don Ready Story). Piven plays Don Ready, a used-car liquidator who is hired by a failing auto dealership to turn their Fourth of July sale into a hugely profitable event.

The trailer for The Goods broadly advertises the fact that it is being brought to you from “the guys behind Talladega Nights and Step Brothers”, and I for one, am happy to say that even though Ferrell is given a producer credit, said trailer actually looks funny as hell, courtesy of take-no-prisoners Piven and his co-stars Ving Rhames, James Brolin, David Koechner and Ed Helms (The Hangover).

Box Office Mojo only has The Goods coming out in 1,500 or so theaters, which means that for $5 in the August Ultimate leagues, you might be able to pull a decent User Rating and maybe a Top 5 point or two, but not much else. There won’t be any PTA, and $20 million seems like the absolutely cap for this film, and that’s if it catches on enough to expand in ensuing weeks. $5 in Box Office seems like a safer bet, but only if you think there’s enough advertising and word of mouth to make this one a success. If not, wait three months and enjoy it on DVD. (I will.)

And now, a bit about August 14th’s three limited-release films.

Ponyo ($8 Ult, $4 BO) – There is no more famous or respected Japanese animator the world over than Hayao Miyazaki. The man behind such classic films as My Neighbor Totoro, Princess Mononoke, Spirited Away (for which he won an Oscar) and Howl’s Moving Castle is back with another film, called Ponyo, a story about a five-year-old boy who forms a relationship with a “goldfish princess” who longs to be human.

Though it was released in Japan a year ago, it will be debuting in about 800 theaters this Friday in the U.S., and the original Japanese will be dubbed over in English. The voice cast, for those who care, is actually quite impressive: Cate Blanchett, Matt Damon, Miley Cyrus, Liam Neeson, Mos Def and Cloris Leachman. It already has well over 3,000 votes on IMDb, and an extremely impressive Rating of 8.0. I find it hard to believe that it will drop much below that, so that alone might be enough reason to select this film.

The only thing that worries me is the 800 theaters. That’s rather too many for PTA purposes, and not enough to make a lot of money. It might become a mini-hit, expending to over 1,000 theaters in the ensuing weeks, but that’s not a given. And for $8, you’d really like to at least come away with a few PTA, wouldn’t you? $4 in Box Office may be a wilier pick, as it is almost guaranteed to outgross everything else priced at $4 and under.

It Might Get Loud ($5 Ult, $2 BO) – It’s been a little while since there’s been a good rockumentary with PTA potential (the last was Anvil! The Story of Anvil, which pulled in five points in April). This film, brought to us by director David Guggenheim, explores the history of the electric guitar, from the perspective of three bona fide rock legends: Led Zeppelin’s Jimmy Page, U2’s The Edge, and The White Stripes’ Jack White.

Sony Pictures Classics has certainly had more than its fair share of hits, but I just don’t know if this subject really has enough meat to make a splash. Sure, it will be great to see three guitar legends jamming on their axes, but it’s not going to have the same impact as, say, Rattle and Hum. Its current User Rating is decent (7.4 with 118 votes), but I expect the same results in the end as I’m Not There… in other words, nothing.

Spread ($4 Ult, $2 BO) - I remember Chien sending me a very favorable review last year for Hallam Foe (Mister Foe), which was helmed by director David Mackenzie. That is about the only thing I might bring up to recommend this film, which has none of the same charm.

Ashton Kutcher stars as Nikki, a sexual grifter who uses his good looks and sexual prowess to charm his way into the hearts of some of Los Angeles’s richest women, after which be basically sponges off of them until the magic is gone. And so it goes… he continues to live this shallow, directionless life, until, one day, sparks fly when he meets a waitress named Heather (Margarita Levieva), who pegs Nikki almost immediately but still manages to attract him.

I’ll just come out and say it. Mr. Demi Moore is going to eventually have to stop playing versions of Kelso if he wants his acting career to last past 35 (he’s 31 now). Time catches up with everyone, and I still believe that he has some talent, but Spread is not one of those films that showcases it. Pass.


My predictions for the weekend of August 14-16, 2009:

1. District 9 - $31 million
2. G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra - $27 million
3. The Time Traveler’s Wife - $14 million
4. Julie & Julia - $10 million
5. Bandslam - $7 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, I begin my fifth decade on this earth with a plethora of new titles, all scheduled for release on or about August 21st: Quentin Tarantino attempts to regain the magic of his Pulp Fiction/Kill Bill days with an ultra-violent WWII film, Inglorious Basterds; additionally, one of QT’s bestest buddies, Robert Rodriguez, also hits screens with the wacky kiddie comedy Shorts; and Alexis Bledel gets top billing for the first time in a comedy called Post Grad. There will also be mentions of four limited release films: Taxidermia, World’s Greatest Dad, My One and Only, and Five Minutes of Heaven.

Later!

Here are this week's trailers:

I still don't think District 9 will be for general audiences. Yeah, it might get the internet people and hardcore movie fans, but I'd set the OW bar at $22M. But just in case, Ihave it on most slates.

My predictions:

1. G.I. Joe - $24M
2. District 9 - $19M
3. The Time Traveler's Wife - $17M
4. Julie & Julia - $11M
5. The Goods - $10M

I think it'll be a very close Top 5.

Cloverfield did $46 million in its first four days despite having only the Internet and hardcore audience to depend on. $24 million will be no problem for District 9.

District 9 does not have the marketing campaign Cloverfield had.

People still respect the shit out of Peter Jackson. His subtle ad campaign may work as effectively as Abrams' blunderbuss tactics with Cloverfield. (I hope....)

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:District 9 does not have the marketing campaign Cloverfield had.

Kind of funny coming from someone from the Chicago area (right?). I was there a couple of weekends ago and advertising was on all of the busses around town.

W wrote:

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:District 9 does not have the marketing campaign Cloverfield had.

Kind of funny coming from someone from the Chicago area (right?). I was there a couple of weekends ago and advertising was on all of the busses around town.

Nope, Ohio. And when I went to NYC in June, I saw the posters around alot but I don't think it's enough. All that tells people is that District 9 has aliens in it, nothing else. They should've released the trailers alot earlier, the first teaser didn't appear until May. Cloverfield had it's teaser 6 months early and on one of the biggest movies of the year, Transformers. Plus the internet campaign was crazy.

Only thing people can assume from the trailers/posters is that aliens have been living in Africa for 28 years in some sort of alernate reality. It's not simple and as easily relatable as Cloverfield.

Damnit, who lives in Chicago? I could have sworn it was you... Is it UDM? Nope, he's from TX. Shryke told me a couple of weeks ago that someone was and I thought he said Banks... Now I'm confused.

Anyways, if you didn't grab D9, you should really consider it. I think this is going to be one of the ones that make you look really silly if you don't have it on all your slates. $100 M for $13. No contest.

I actually thought that Cloverfield was going to die at the box office and gross only $20 million. I remembered seeing the teaser with Transformers (the one without a title) and everyone hated the trailer.

And I remember the other trailers weren't any better.

District 9 actually got a decent trailer that actually made it look like a movie rather than a J.J. Abrams self-congratulatory blow job.

I really think The Time Travellers Wife is going to do a lot better than most of you guys think. I'd say in the 20 mils for opening weekend. I believe we are overthinking this one a little like we did a couple other movies this year (Proposal, Hangover)...reminds me of The Notebook, which ended up about 80M or so...I think this will start out a little faster than the Notebook did...I can't remember, but i don't think the Notebook had a huge opening, but had great legs...I think this will have a decent opening AND great legs...just my opinion though.

I dont know what to think about Time Travelers Wife. On one hand there hasnt been a romance drama since hes just not that into you, on the other hand it jsut looks weird. Also I'm with Shryke, I think Bana is not very compelling.

A Hell of a lot of people didn't overlook/overthink The Hangover or The Proposal, underestimated, but not overthought. They were both on a ton of slates if I remember right.

This one just doesn't look or sound like a flick that will break out completely. Maybe a 5x, but not much more.

I know it doesn't matter much but I found a couple of RT ratings kind of funny:

Bandslam: 85% Fresh (out of 13)
TT Wife: 33% Fresh (out of 15)

W wrote:A Hell of a lot of people didn't overlook/overthink The Hangover or The Proposal, underestimated, but not overthought. They were both on a ton of slates if I remember right.

This one just doesn't look or sound like a flick that will break out completely. Maybe a 5x, but not much more.

I know it doesn't matter much but I found a couple of RT ratings kind of funny:

Bandslam: 85% Fresh (out of 13)
TT Wife: 33% Fresh (out of 15)

The morning TV show over here reviewed Bandslam and District 9 this morning. I was surprised by the positive review they gave Bandslam. I still think it looks like a waste of time but.

Wow, didn't expect Bandslam to have a rating like that. I was more expecting another The Rocker.

Am I the only one that thinks Bandslam could get in the tween crowd who drooled over High School Muscial, and do surprisingly well?

I think the numbers will be average for the genre. Some of the people who liked Step Up and High School Musical will see but others will ignore it since Vanessa Hudgens isn't the lead in the film (instead the lead is Aly of Aly and AJ, one of the Disney groups that went nowhere). This was not smart thinking by the producers.

I'm guessing the majority of you that don't think much of Bana either do not have a wife or a girlfriend right now

Keyser Soze wrote:I'm guessing the majority of you that don't think much of Bana either do not have a wife or a girlfriend right now

I don't, and I'm married. And you know that.

Shrykespeare wrote:

Keyser Soze wrote:I'm guessing the majority of you that don't think much of Bana either do not have a wife or a girlfriend right now

I don't, and I'm married. And you know that. :!:

Same here as I am still (technically) married...

I did like him in Troy, though.

Anybody seen Chopper? Fantastic acting by Bana.

I didn't say he couldn't act, just that he's not that compelling as a lead actor, in the movies that I've seen him in.

Munich was a great movie, but much more plot-driven than character-driven. Troy was much more a Brat Pitt vehicle. The Hulk was... well, you know. As I said, he was terrific in Star Trek, and I give him props for that.

Never seen Chopper, Lucky You or The Other Boleyn Girl.

Shrykespeare wrote:I didn't say he couldn't act, just that he's not that compelling as a lead actor, in the movies that I've seen him in.

I agree with that comment. But Chopper is the exception that proves the rule.

The Other Boleyn Girl is probably the sexiest costume drama I've ever seen.

Any early tracking? Nothing from Steve Mason as of this moment...



And hey! I just checked the standings of the MMG.mogul introductory league, and it seems I'm in first place with two weeks left! I rock!

(Course, it's very close.)

1. Shryke 76.5
2. JackO 75
3. delf 74
4. geez 72
5. Scripps 71.5
6. leestu 68
7. ozzy 67

Doesn't get much closer than that....