SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 6/19 - The Proposal, Year One

The Hangover has just tied Paul Blart: Mall Cop at #1 as the surprise comedy hit of the year. Perhaps even supplanted it. I remember thinking back in January that Blart would never make more than $40, $50 million at the most, and lo, it ended up just shy of $150 million. But winning back-to-back weekends, though an impressive feat no matter when it occurs, is even more monumental an accomplishment when it occurs in the middle of summer, when a new big-name release comes every single week.

Not only did The Hangover skirt its way past Pixar’s latest masterpiece Up (which dropped only 35% in its second weekend and is well on its way to $250 million), but it managed only a minute drop itself, holding off not only Up but Tony Scott’s new actioner The Taking of Pelham 123 as well. I guess a good parallel to its success would be Knocked Up, which pounded its way to a surprising $148 million starting the opening Friday of June 2007 starring a virtually unknown (at the time) Seth Rogen. (NOTE: It’s worth noting, however, that Knocked Up only managed 11 Top 5 points total, and wasn’t even able to win its OW – thanks to the third Pirates movie – and The Hangover has already piled up ten, and will probably get at least fifteen before it’s done. Holy hasenpfeffer, Batman!)

Two new films rise up to challenge The Hangover this week, and what do you know, they’re both comedies. Either one could end up taking the crown away, or neither could. This has certainly been an unpredictable year for comedies, which has most definitely made the game a lot more interesting to play.

The first I’ll talk about is The Proposal, starring the ageless Sandra Bullock. Much like Eddie Murphy (who I talked about at length last week), Sandra’s career has been rather enigmatic. She is an actress that is certainly not without talent, as she has showcased her acting range in just about every genre there is – action, horror, comedy, drama, animated, you name it – and she is one of those few actresses in Hollywood that hit 40 and just kept right on going. Now, there’s no denying she’s still very attractive, but I worry that once time finally catches up with her, offers to do these formulaic fluff pieces (including The Proposal and the upcoming All About Steve) will dry up. Hope she keeps plenty of moisturizer stockpiled.

She’s done some truly great films – Speed, A Time To Kill, and Miss Congeniality will always be among my favorites, and though Crash has many detractors, I maintain she did a fantastic job in that movie – she’s done a great many more bad ones. I’m not yet sure which category The Proposal will fall, but as always, time will tell.

In this film, Bullock plays tough-as-nails book editor Margaret Tate, who is less than thrilled when she learns that her visa has expired and is facing deportation to Canada, which, of course, would mean giving up her seat of power and semi-cushy lifestyle. And we all know what the best way to avoid deportation is (in the movies, anyway); marry an American! She announces that she is engaged to Andrew Paxton (Wolverine's Ryan Reynolds), who has been her beleaguered, harangued and tormented office assistant for three years.

Andrew grudgingly agrees to the charade, but on one condition; that she come home with him to meet his family in the tiny town of Sitka, Alaska. Once there, when Margaret meets Andrew’s folks (Craig T. Nelson, Mary Steenburgen) and grandma (Betty White), though surrounded on all sides by snow, the ice finally starts to melt inside Margaret’s heart. (Yeah, that sounded sappy, but then, so does this movie.)

From what I’ve read, this film was shot on location in Sitka, and the camera-work is simply gorgeous, and director Anne Fletcher (27 Dresses) does a passable job creating a story that is both touching and amusing, no matter how contrived and predictable it ends up being. Plus, it’s rated PG-13, and SHOULD appeal to women considerably more than The Hangover did (though a recent poll showed that 48% of THAT film's audience were women, even with practically no women in the cast. It's NUTS!!). But does it have enough there to muster the $25-$30 million it will need to outshine all competitors and take that #1 spot? Well, between this, The Hangover, Up and Year One (which I’ll talk about in a moment), this could be one of the closest four-film races in box office history.

I personally think it will open well, but not quite well enough to win its OW. I predict six Top 5 points, three PTA, a User Rating around 6.3 and about $52 million for The Proposal. I don’t know that that’s enough to risk taking it for $11 in Ultimate Leagues, but it might be worth it in Box Office (for $12). Consider this: whichever comedy comes out on top this particular weekend could end up holding the best, given that there are precisely zero live-action comedies coming out the next two weeks.

A much riskier prospect also surfaces this week in the shape of Year One, a film so named because that is purportedly when it takes place; in ancient times. Directed by comic genius Harold Ramis, who gave us such timeless hits as Caddyshack, National Lampoon’s Vacation, Groundhog Day and Analyze This, Year One attempts to find humor by going medieval… actually, “pre-medieval” would be more accurate… actually, well, uh… let’s just say some point in time between the Stone Age and The Crusades, okay?

This film follows the adventures of Zed (the irrepressible Jack Black) and Oh (rising star Michael Cera) as a couple of dim-witted hunter-gatherers who decide to form their own tribe and end up making their way across the Biblical world. There is no shortage of star talent in the supporting cast, as it includes Oliver Platt, Vinnie Jones, Hank Azaria (playing Abraham, not Abraham Lincoln, snicker), hot House flower Olivia Wilde, and, in a deal-sealer for me, Christopher Mintz-Plasse. Come on, it’s McLovin’! Every film is automatically improved with a little McLovin’! McLovin’ is the SHIT!! (Okay, half-serious fanboy rant over.)

I just don’t know, people. The cast is there (McLovin!); there are certainly few comedic stars higher up on the A-list than Black and Cera (who will no doubt be speaking with a considerably more modern dialect than a historically accurate portrayal would be, duh), which means that the fan base is certainly there. But wackiness is a double-edged sword; Year One could be hailed as another stroke of genius for Harold Ramis, who has more funny films in the pantheon of legendary comedies than many directors, or it could join Bedazzled as just another obtuse piece of flotsam that should never have been put to film. At least it, too, is rated PG-13, which means that the scatological humor and sexual innuendos will be toned down a little bit.

I personally think it will end up somewhere in between. The time for such a comedy would seem to be right now, and like I said, the fan base is already there. I predict Year One will garner sufficient funds to take #1 on its opening weekend, just barely ahead of all the other films mentioned above and below. Let’s just hope, for its sake, that it can maintain some semblance of an audience afterward, as all comers are probably going to be crushed, by roughly a ten-to-one margin, by the big fighting-robot movie coming only five days later.

When we were creating the pricing scheme for June, I’m sure I was one of the lower estimates for Year One's chances. As a result, the film is quite expensive - $16 in Ultimate, $17 in Box Office. If you believe it has more potential than I’ve laid out, you should definitely consider taking this film. If not… well, just go see it. After all, it has McLovin’ in it! (Smack upside the head.)


My predictions for the weekend of June 19-21, 2009:

1. Year One - $28 million
2. The Hangover - $24 million
3. The Proposal - $23 million
4. Up - $21 million
5. The Taking of Pelham 123 - $13 million


Well, that will do it for me for this week. Please return next week, when I tackle… the BIG one. Yes, folks, the film that will, without a doubt (well, little doubt) be the #1 money-earner in 2009. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, a sequel reuniting director Michael Bay with most of the cast of 2007’s Transformers, where Shia LaBeouf and Megan Fox must join forces with Optimus Prime and the other extra-terrestrial robots for a second epic battle; as well as My Sister’s Keeper, a tearjerker starring Abigail Breslin as a young girl who decides to emancipate herself from her parents, who apparently only conceived her so she could be a donor to her leukemia-stricken older sister. Yikes.

Later!

P.S. Hot House flower… damn, I am so bloody clever… (grin)

I'm actually going to favor The Proposal here. The sneak previews on Saturday apparently did really well and it's the only major chick flick out for a while. Also, it's PG-13 so there no one is going to be confused about who the main appeal is (unlike the box office disappointment trifecta of Bride Wars, New In Town and Confessions Of A Shopaholic, all of which carried PG ratings and lost that adult appeal as a result).

Meanwhile, I see Year One being a flop for two reasons. First of all, I really can't see the appeal of a comedy set entirely in the B.C. times. Second, the film reminds me too much of last year's flop The Love Guru. Even the ads seem to make a bigger point of showing its lead with long hair and a beard rather than the actual plot of the film. Also people will still be seeing The Hangover.

I actually think Proposal will take first too. There hasn't been an actual chick flick since the first weekend in may. Although I want to see both films coming out this weekend. yes, Year One looks stupid, but for some reason i laughed my ass off when i saw the trailer.

Year One looks god awful, which is disappointing b/c when I saw the cast and the premise I had high hopes. The previews don't even make me crack a smile. I think Year One will be 3rd or 4th in the weekend, depending on how well Up holds.

Year One won't win the weekend. It'll be between The Proposal and The Hangover.

Year One will be lucky to finish in the Top Three.

My early prediction for the top five:
1.The Proposal
2.The Hangover
3.Up
4.Year One
5.The Taking Of Pelham 123

Even though I can also see The Hangover three-peating (similar to last year's surprise Tropic Thunder) and Year One barely making the Top 5.

Gotta agree with everyone else here, I think The Proposal will be big and win the weekend. It's all about the trailer - The Hangover trailer was hiliarious and that is about to hit $150M, and the response to the Proposal trailer is comparable. On the other hand, the Year One trailer and ads look terrible and I think it'll flop. McLovin or not

1. The Proposal - $30M
2. The Hangover - $22M
3. Up - $20M
4. Year One - $16M
5. The Taking of Pelham 123 - $12M

I think Up takes the weekend.

The comedies are going to eat each other alive.

Here's the weekend warriors top 5 predictions


1. The Proposal (Disney/Touchstone) - $26.2 million N/A

2. The Hangover (Warner Bros.) - $22.5 million -31%

3. Year One (Sony) - $20.8 million N/A

4. Up (Disney/PIxar Animation) - $20.3 million -34%

5. The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 (Sony) - $12.5 million -47%

Any ACTUAL early tracking anywhere?

First off, what trailers are you guys watching? I mean, I can understand alot of the opinions here from a moguls standpoint, but as a film lover, I don't think the proposal looks good at all. There's one funny part (the "it's morning" segment), and the rest looks like the same tired rom-com stuff.

Year One I didn't even want to like, but found myself laughing my ass off.

I've been wrong quite a bit lately (exact opposite of W) with the BO (though doing pretty damn good at PTA), but here's mine:

1. The Hangover
2. Year One
3. The Proposal
4. Up
5. Pelham

Though, admittedly, the top two I could see swapping pretty easily...

On a side note, who the hell thought Angels and Demons was gonna beat out Terminator: Salvation?

1. The Proposal 26 mil
2. Year One 23 mil
3. Up 21.5 mil
4. The Hangover 21 mil
5. Pelham 13 mil

I do think the comedies will beat each other up a little bit, causing the switch in Hangover/Up. The Proposal should win as it is the first chick flick since Ghosts of Girlfriends Past which came out the first week of May and didn't really seem to satisfy audiences. Year One is a tough film to call, but I can't see it opening with less than 23 million, and I think that will be enough for second place. 1-4 should be very close though.

Without JackO's tracking, we're lost as hell...

Anyone can get it if they have an HSX account...

I just made the thread, I found the tracking #s at BOM

Here is what i see happening this weekend

1.The Proposal 28.5 Mill
2. The Hangover 25 Mill
3.Up 22 Mill
4. Year One 20 Mill
5.Pelham 12.5 Mill

Umm Tranny, maybe you should write a column!!!

Tranny's estimates:
1.The Proposal 28.5 Mill
2. The Hangover 25 Mill
3.Up 22 Mill
4. Year One 20 Mill
5.Pelham 12.5 Mill

Actuals:
1. Proposal 33.6 M 5.1 M difference
2. Hangover 26.8 M 1.8 M diff
3. Up 23.5 M 1.5 M diff
4. Year One 19.6 M .4 M diff
5. Pelham 12.0 M .5 M diff

Is that some kind of crack? Just for that, I'm dedicating my next column to you, bucko.

The next week of films starts in an hour... LOL

Shrykespeare wrote:

Is that some kind of crack? Just for that, I'm dedicating my next column to you, bucko.

You know I still love ya Shrykey. Just amazed at his number picks. You are still our Number 1 columnist.

Spoiler:

LOL