SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 1/30 - New in Town, The Uninvited, Taken

We are only a few short days away from the deadline for entry for the 2009 Super Leagues, so all of you out there who STILL haven’t entered (yes, both of you), this will be your last warning. Fail to enter now, and you won’t be able to try your hand at the full-year tournaments again until January 2010… damn, that’s a long way off… and five months until the start of the 2nd-half tournaments. We already have sixty players down in three of the four tournaments, so don’t be afraid to throw your hat in the ring!

January is not supposed to be choked with overachievers, but holy Hell, Batman, $31 million for Paul Blart: Mall Cop? Seriously?! Couple that with very respectable opening weekends for The Unborn, My Bloody Valentine and Notorious (5 PTA!), and you can say that 2009 is off to a whiz-bang start. Even Bride Wars and Hotel For Dogs, though they may not live up to their price tag, still opened semi-decently, and may end up being worth it in the long run.

Today, I’ll talk about the films of January 30th, which, thankfully, does not possess another Friedberg/Seltzer debacle like it has the last two years… let me just say to all moviegoers everywhere. THANK YOU. Thank you for finally wising up and showing some taste by avoiding Disaster Movie like the bubonic plague that it was. Maybe, just maybe, those two assclowns finally got the message. But, I digress; on with the business at hand.

Renee Zellweger is one of those actresses that, in my experience, you either love or hate. The pouty face, the sultry-but-nasal Jennifer Tilly-esque voice, you know what I’m talking about. She does have a fair amount of talent, though she seems to showcase it so infrequently it’s almost maddening. And she seems to love doing period pieces, doesn’t she? When she’s not lending her voice to the latest really bad DreamWorks picture, she’s donning corsets or hoop skirts for her latest acting venture. Just look at the last seven years: Chicago, Cold Mountain, Cinderella Man, Miss Potter, Leatherheads and Appaloosa.

For New In Town, a Zellweger vehicle set uncharacteristically in the present day (and her first film since Miss Potter in which she’s received top billing), Renee goes back to the “romantic comedy” well, playing the character of Lucy Hill, an ambitious executive living in Miami. A city girl through-and-through, she loves her cars, her designer shoes and climbing the corporate ladder. But said climb takes an unexpected turn when she volunteers to take the assignment of restructuring one of her company’s manufacturing plants, not knowing that said plant is located in the frozen wasteland that is the tiny town of New Ulm, Minnesota.

If you’ve seen the trailer, or even possess a smidgen of foresight, you can guess where the story goes from there. A by-the-numbers fish-out-of-water story, where the spoiled city slicker learns to get down and dirty for the first time ever, at first hating the backwater burg she’s been relegated to but finding love with the man of her dreams (Harry Connick Jr.) in the end. I think. One thing I know for sure: expect lots of ridiculously accented, uh, accents, just like the ones you heard in Fargo, with Siobhan Fallon looking very much like a Frances MacDormand stand-in.

This is the last weekend of January, which means that it has only one weekend to make it’s hay, as there are a bevy of more alluring titles on tap the following week, not the least of which is He’s Just Not That Into You, another romantic comedy with a MUCH more star-studded cast and a more experienced director. January has featured a lot of pleasant surprises thus far, and it’s anybody’s guess how Inkheart and Underworld will do, but I doubt that New in Town, which will probably open in no more than 2,500 theaters, will pull more than $18 million in its first weekend(the third day of which, lest we forget, is Super Bowl Sunday).

I look for four Top 5 points, possibly one or two PTA at most (most of the Oscar hopefuls will have expanded to wide-release by then), a rating around 5.5 and around $35 million in total take. It’ll run you $10 in the January Ultimate leagues and $8 in Box Office, but I’d hinge picking this film only on how well it’s advertised (which, so far, is not that well) and how it tracks in the week leading up to its release. And even then, Box Office may be the only way to go, if at all.

Fourth week of January, fourth week with a horror film, and what do you know? It’s a remake! Of a 2003 South Korean film (called A Tale of Two Sisters)! Wow, the first month of the year is nothing if not predictable, right?

Well, to be fair, The Uninvited does have one or two things going for it. First, it’s rated PG-13, which means it’s targeting (and may get) a larger audience than The Unborn and My Bloody Valentine did. Second, it stars Elizabeth Banks, who is coming off a really terrific couple of years, where she was a part of surprise hits such as Role Models and Zack and Miri Make a Porno, and a critical hit in W. (We’ll forgive her her role in Meet Dave.)

In this story, Anna (Emily Browning) returns home from the hospital following the tragic death of her mother, only to find that her widower father (David Strathairn) is now engaged to her mother’s former nurse, Rachael (Banks). Convinced that her intentions are far more nefarious than she lets on, Anna proceeds to engage Rachael in a lethal battle of wills.

Honestly, of the five major horror films slated for release between January 9th and February 13th, this one actually looks the most intelligent. Unfortunately, it’s also saddled with the worst spot of the bunch, and though it does have a chance at winning it’s opening weekend, it’ll get blown away by the throng of films coming one week later (no less than four with big-hit potential). The Unborn and My Bloody Valentine were able to both crack $17 million in their first three days, so I’ll predict that The Uninvited will too. For $8 in Ultimate, this could be a reasonable pick, even though, as I said, it’ll probably stop giving you good stats in the Top 5 and/or PTA categories after its first week. For $6 in Box Office, you could easily end up with a 5x or 6x multiplier, which is pretty darn good for this time of year.

Up next, we have Taken, yet another January release that was shunted to this location from a previous release date in 2008. (In this case, September, where I suppose 20th Century Fox didn’t want this title to go head-to-head with Mr. Pacino and Mr. DeNiro, probably a wise move.) This film stars Liam Neeson as Bryan, an ex-CIA agent who must rely on all of his military and espionage skills when he daughter (Maggie Grace) is kidnapped by sex-traffickers in Paris.

After the rousing success of the Bourne trilogy, not to mention the Daniel Craig-let rejuvenation of the Bond franchise, espionage thrillers seem to be the flavor of the day, and Taken might be in a position to make a modest splash. True, Neeson isn’t exactly the household name that Matt Damon or James Bond are, but this film has been pretty heavily advertised over the last month, so it’s just possible that this may turn into a surprise hit in America.

I say “in America” for a reason, that reason being that the film has already been released and distributed just about everywhere else in the world. With its European funding – not to mention the fact that the film was written and produced by acclaimed French director Luc Besson – Taken has, erm, taken in (heh) a very respectable $68 million worldwide (including $15 million in South Korea, if you can believe it) more than double its estimated budget. (Note: special thanks the numbersix for the preceding information.)

This title is very modestly priced at $4 in Ultimate and $5 in Box Office. However, even with the terrific advertising, it will not finish ahead of either of the other two new releases this week, and will be hard-pressed to beat both Inkheart, Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (both in their second week), or perhaps even Paul Blart: Mall Cop (in its third week). However, I am a closet Liam Neeson fan, so I’ll predict one Top 5 point and $25 million overall, which, again, makes this a good Box Office pick but a questionable one in Ultimate.


My predictions for January 30th:

1. The Uninvited - $21 million
2. New in Town - $17 million
3. Inkheart - $12 million
4. Underworld: Rise of the Lycans - $11 million
5. Taken - $9 million

Well, that will do it for this week. Next week is when 2009 kicks it up another notch, with four new films vying for your dollar: The Tim Burton-esque Coraline (starring Dakota Fanning); young superheroes battling evil government forces in Push (also starring Dakota Fanning); Steve Martin returns as the bumbling Inspector Clouseau in Pink Panther 2; and a veritable herd of sexy twenty-, thirty- and forty-somethings congregate on the big screen in He’s Just Not That Into You.

P.S. Yahoo! Go Cardinals!!!! (Sorry, Keyser, I can't pass up this opportunity, not after a lifetime of losing records.)

And BTW all, the Feb-Apr pricing lists are now available in the Super League and Ultimate and Box Office league threads, so you can now get to work on those February slates!


And also, there's a new poll question up at my website.

www.thelatestmoviereviews.com/2009/01/25/weekly-poll-21.html

All Super League entrants should be receiving an e-mail containing the February price list, along with a link to the Message Board version of same, in case your computer is one that doesn't like Microsoft Excel.

You know, it's a bit pathetic replying to one's own stuff....

There, there, Shryke, we don't reply in awe of your vast knowledge on cinema.

I like the prices. It's going to be tough for me, because most of the films look very generic and dull to me, so finding the surprise hit is quite the task.

Based on theaters counts and buzz, I am revising my predictions for this weekend slightly...

1. The Uninvited - $18 million
2. Taken - $14 million
3. Paul Blart - $13 million
4. Underworld - $11 million
5. Gran Torino - $10 million

6. Slumdog Millionaire - $9 million
7. New in Town - $8 million
8. Hotel For Dogs - $7 million

I remember saying, back on FM, that the PTA champ for this weekend would be a film that we didn't know about yet. Well, since no other movies materialized between then and now, who knows who it will be? If The Uninvited opens strongly, it could take it, but then again, Slumdog could repeat as champion.

I can't see Taken opening that well. Action films don't do well on Super Bowl weekend and the film is easy to download or import. Despite the number of theatres getting it, I'd say the highest it does is $10 million.

The advertising has been absolutely saturated though and I know a lot of people who want to see it. It can still have a strong Friday and Saturday. Sunday's are always weak anyway. If the Super Bowl were on a Saturday it would be a bigger problem. I think it will get a minimum of 15