SPEARE’S TIPS: The Films of 1/9

With the January season fast approaching and the onset of the second year of Super Leagues looming, and with attendance down pretty well across the board, you know what that means: you need to get off to a good start. Given that the monthly cuts are going to be smaller than last year, you really don’t want to be one of the unlucky schmucks for whom it will be over before it really begins.

So what lies in store for Round One? Well, it inevitably starts with January, habitually the worst month for movies of the year. A month chock full of low-grade horror movies, low-grade rom-coms and maybe one or two titles of actual quality. Picking the wheat from the chaff can be a tricky business, but that’s where I come in. At least January 2009 doesn’t have anything close to the hype-zilla that Cloverfield was one year ago.

There doesn’t seem to be any films coming out in wide-release on January 2nd (not even a throwaway like One Missed Call), so I’ll move right on to the weekend of January 9th, which features three films hoping to start 2009 off with… well, maybe not a bang, but maybe something like a half-bang, which would still be pretty good for January.

Last January, the Katherine Heigl romantic comedy 27 Dresses surprised the hell out of everybody, pounding out over $23 million on its opening weekend en route to over $76 million overall (very nearly beating the aforementioned Cloverfield). The recipe was there: chick flick, not much competition, rising star, decent director, and it paid dividends, especially for those Moguls canny enough to choose it. And whaddaya know, another comedy with a “wedding” theme comes a-calling one year later, with pretty much the same recipe.

Bride Wars, as the name implies, is about the same subject, that bwessed awwangement, that dweam wivvin a dweam… (snap) Sorry, zoned out for a moment. But the recipe is the same, but instead of one rising star in the cast, Bride Wars actually has two… well, one-and-a-half. Anne Hathaway is riding a hot streak right now, coming off box-office blockbusters The Devil Wears Prada and Get Smart, as well as critical darlings Becoming Jane and Rachel Getting Married. Her co-star, Kate Hudson, hasn’t done quite as well, scoring mid-range success with the comedies How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days, You Me and Dupree and Fool’s Gold. However, her last outing, My Best Friend’s Girl, bombed, but I personally have no problem blaming Jason Biggs for that.

Hathaway and Hudson play Liv and Emma, two best friends who have planned every detail of their respective weddings since they were little girls playing in their attics. It has been their lifelong dream to be married in New York’s Plaza Hotel, basically the ultimate bridal destination. And, as luck would have it, they both get engaged at the same time, and both are fortunate to get dates at that magic locale. However, when a clerical error involving a clash in wedding dates occurs, it sets the two former BFFs at each other’s throats, as they go all-out to sabotage each other’s weddings.

Directed by Gary Winick (who had some success in 2006 with Charlotte’s Web), Bride Wars looks to be setting the bar high. The trailer is hysterical (especially when the spooky antagonistic music kicks in), and there is no doubt that this film has more star power than almost everything else in January put together. Candice Bergen, Kristen Johnson and Bryan Greenberg make up some of the supporting cast.

If you’d asked me one year ago whether I thought 27 Dresses could rake in over $75 million in the frozen wasteland of January, I would have said an unqualified no. But the question now is, can history repeat itself? I’m willing to believe that it can. It’s opening a full two weeks after the Christmas holiday, which means that the clamor for Bedtime Stories and the other major holiday films should be starting to abate. $25 million seems a reasonable prediction for Bride Wars's opening weekend, and it may go as high as $35 million if the early buzz is good and the theater count is high. $100 million is probably too much to expect, but a finish in the $80 million range is where I put this film’s final tally, along with nine Top 5 points, several PTA, and a Rating in the high 6’s. This is an excellent pick for your roster ($19 in Ultimate, $18 in Box Office), no matter how you slice it.

A (much) less certain fate awaits The Unborn, the first horror film of the year, and a film that is kicking off a series of four consecutive weekends featuring a new title with horrific elements (five if you count Dance Flick). This one is helmed by David S. Goyer (who wrote Batman Begins and directed The Invisible), and stars Harry Potter and The Dark Knight veteran actor Gary Oldman, along with Meagan Good, Jane Alexander, Idris Elba and newcomer Odette Yustman.

The story follows Casey Bell (Yustman), a young woman who is plagued by nightmares and haunted by the ghost of a child. Turning to her spiritual advisor (Oldman), she learns that the source of her family curse – the one that caused her mother to leave while Casey was still a child – is a creature with the ability to inhabit anyone or anything, and is getting stronger with each possession. Together, they must shut the doorway before this terrifying creature can be “born” into our world.

As I said, this is the first of a string of low-grade horror flicks, and will immediately be followed by My Bloody Valentine 3-D, Underworld: Rise of the Lycans and The Uninvited (not to mention the Friday the 13th reboot in February). This one has the advantage of coming out first, when pickings are rather slim; however, I have yet to see any real advertising for it, which makes me believe that a $15 million opening weekend is really all it will be able to muster, unless Universal is waiting for the Christmas hoopla to die down. It might finish as high as #2 or #3 on in its firs three days, but it will have little or now staying power after that.

For $8 in the upcoming January Ultimate leagues, you could probably do better (like with Paul Blart: Mall Cop, for example). It might make $40 million before it’s done, but I rather doubt it, which makes spending $11 on it in the January Box Office leagues a poor choice. It’ll pick up a few Top 5 points, but probably not any PTA, and I’d be surprised if the User Rating was over 6.0. In other words: not worth it.

If I’ve heard very little fanfare thus far about The Unborn, I’ve seen even less about Not Easily Broken, the latest release by Sony/Screen Gems; no posters, no commercials, and the only trailer I’ve seen I had to go to YouTube to find. This tells me that either the studio has no confidence in this product, and is shoving it into theaters in January to try to get a few mil back, or it will end up getting a last-minute bump.

This story is based on the book (of the same name) by Bishop T.D. Jakes, and directed by actor/director Bill Duke. It stars Morris Chestnut (The Perfect Holiday) and Taraji P. Henson (Madea’s Family Reunion) as Dave and Clarice, an upper-class African-American married couple whose relationship is entering a difficult phase: he wants to start a family but she has always put her career first. Things get even more difficult when Clarice is injured in a car accident, and Dave develops an attraction to another woman.

Based on the one and only trailer I’ve seen, the premise looks decent enough, the kind of family drama that Tyler Perry has had a lot of success in. But his name is not preceding the title here, and unless this film gets it’s ass in gear, and I mean SOON, I fear it will disappear with barely a ripple and take its chances on DVD.

Not Easily Broken is priced at only $6 in the January Ultimate leagues, but it’s entirely possible that it might not finish in the Top 5 on its OW at all. (Keep in mind that this is also the week that Gran Torino and The Reader both “go wide”.) PTA points are pretty much a no-go, and it’s unlikely that this film will buck the trend of lousy User Ratings over at IMDb. Give this one a miss, unless you’re playing in Bankrupts.

Well, that’s it for now. Come back soon, and I’ll tell you about the films of January 16th, all of which may hold a fair amount of promise: Notorious, Paul Blart: Mall Cop and My Bloody Valentine 3-D.

If Taraji P. Henson wins any of her nominations, I wouldnt count out Not Easily Broken. Although most shows will be after this opens, so you might be right. I think you're also right about The Unborn, it'll sure help being first out of the gate.

i just cant see Bride wars topping 80M, yeah ok 27 dresses did well but this will be lucky to get near 50-60 me thinks. Even though it has no real direct competition from the females i just think itll fall flat after its OW

I could see Not Easily Broken performing similar to Fireproof back in September. T.D. Jakes isn't Tyler Perry but he does have a following and the film will likely be promoted heavily to church groups. It could do decent numbers.

$100 M is not out of the question for Bride Wars. Especially with a Academy boost for Hathaway.

Well last year, Cloverfield, Fool's Gold, Jumper, Definately Maybe, Semi-Pro, 10,000 B.C., College Road Trip, and Forgetting Sarah Marshall all had $100 million buzz in January-April. I don't think we should talk about $100 million this early in the year except for movies like Watchmen and Monsters vs. Aliens.

I'm not a huge chick flick fan, I'll leave that to my fiance. BUT, when the '27 dresses' trailer came out, it looked like a half way decent movie. Have any of you guys seen the trailer for 'Bride Wars'? It looks terrible. My fiance even said it looks bad and she loves Kate Hudson, which doesnt bode well for the movie. I think it will do relatively well, but I think that 100M is out of the question. I'd say closer to 50M is more like it. 27 dresses only made about 75-80M i think and I dont see it doing better than that.

There's no way in hell Not Easily Broken will perform like Fireproof. I'd say it will be similar to Cadillac Records, which has only made around 8M. It's opening in less than 1,000 theaters and it's lack of any big name actors will hurt it's chances. No way it makes Fireproof like numbers. No way.

Fireproof didn't have any big names either (I mean, when's the last time that anyone has cared about Kirk Cameron?) and it had a small opening but managed good numbers. And T.D. Jakes is a pretty popular writer in the Christian/inspirational field. The first adaptation of a T.D. Jakes novel (Woman, Thou Art Loosed in 2004) managed decent numbers in limited release and could have been bigger had the film not carried an R rating.

Also though not very well-known, Morris Chestnut and Taraji P. Henson are more relevant and are easier to take seriously than Kirk "It's All About Me" Cameron.

Jesus cares about Kirk Cameron Mr. Buscemi. Don't forget about the Jesus.

From Hollywood-Elsewhere:
Gran Torino, which goes wide this weekend, is running at 71, 49 and 18. It seems likely to beat the debuting Bride Wars, which is tracking at 68, 34 and 10. Not Easily Broken is 60, 28 and 1 and The Unborn is 56, 30 and 7.

Go Clint!