The "Harry Potter 6 Will Outgross Transformers 2" Club

Anyone in? I've got HP6 getting somewhere around $315 mil or so, and I think Transformers will have a huge OW while falling hard and ending up somewhere around $290-$305.

It's Voldemort vs. The Fallen? Whodya got?



Wizards and Wands. Robots and Megan Fox. Two will enter. One will leave.

Out. Out. Out. Everything is going right for Transformers 2. Transformers 2 is tracking gigantic because excitement is crazy for this movie, its vastly vastly outselling HP on Fandango, HP moved its IMAX to get out of the way for Transformers 2, this club came at the wrong time.

And you do realize the original Transformers was able to beat Harry Potter, right?

In. Harry Potter has the perfect release date and it faces nothing of any importance until G.I. Joe on August 7th. Also, the die-hards are sure to see it more than once. Meanwhile, Transformers must face Ice Age and Public Enemies one week later and it has the potential to be like Spider-Man 3 from two years ago (huge opening, fair to poor word of mouth, huge drops after opening weekend).

Also, Star Trek had the same thing happen with IMAX as most of those theatres dropped it for Night At The Museum after two weeks. But Star Trek still happens to have the bigger gross despite that handicap.

I'm in. Transformers opens very big but can it hold?

J.I. wrote:Out. Out. Out. Everything is going right for Transformers 2. Transformers 2 is tracking gigantic because excitement is crazy for this movie, its vastly vastly outselling HP on Fandango, HP moved its IMAX to get out of the way for Transformers 2, this club came at the wrong time.

And you do realize the original Transformers was able to beat Harry Potter, right?

The IMAX deal actually helps HP6. This way, all the fans will see it as soon as possible on regular screens, and then go back to see it in partial 3D IMAX.

And yeah, in 2007, Transformers beat HP5. But I think the anticipation for HP6 is greater than 5, just like anticipation for both 7 movies will be higher than 6. And TF2 is sounding way too much like Spider-Man 3 for my tastes.

(But I will be watching both )

I'm out. I can't bet against Transformers.

I'm more looking forward to HP6, but I'm not in. T2 will gross more.

Umm... Harry Potter has a chance at $300 M (only been done once). Transformers has a shot at $400 M... No brainer.

W wrote:Umm... Harry Potter has a chance at $300 M (only been done once). Transformers has a shot at $400 M... No brainer.

I'm willing to bet half of my face that Tf2 doesn't hit $400M

im out. I think Transformers will outgross Potter.

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:

W wrote:Umm... Harry Potter has a chance at $300 M (only been done once). Transformers has a shot at $400 M... No brainer.

I'm willing to bet half of my face that Tf2 doesn't hit $400M

You don't think it has a SHOT at it? I don't think it'll hit it, but if something looks like a decent bet to hit $350 M (the first one hit $320 M and sequels tend to outgross), it's not crazy to say it has a shot at $400 M.

Maybe Worldwide but not Domestically.

Well considering the last one made over $700 million worldwide I would say this one has a good shot at $400 million, JackO. (yeah I know you mean internationally).

The last movie had an A grade on CinemaScore. People really liked it. If this one gets word of mouth saying that its better and more epic than the first one, it could very well hit $400 million. Besides, its not unprecedented (Pirates of the Caribbean, Batman Begins, Shrek)

W wrote:

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:

W wrote:Umm... Harry Potter has a chance at $300 M (only been done once). Transformers has a shot at $400 M... No brainer.

I'm willing to bet half of my face that Tf2 doesn't hit $400M

You don't think it has a SHOT at it? I don't think it'll hit it, but if something looks like a decent bet to hit $350 M (the first one hit $320 M and sequels tend to outgross), it's not crazy to say it has a shot at $400 M.

Yeah, I guess it has a shot. But only if it's better than the first. Which I don't think it will be.

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:

W wrote:

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:

W wrote:Umm... Harry Potter has a chance at $300 M (only been done once). Transformers has a shot at $400 M... No brainer.

I'm willing to bet half of my face that Tf2 doesn't hit $400M

You don't think it has a SHOT at it? I don't think it'll hit it, but if something looks like a decent bet to hit $350 M (the first one hit $320 M and sequels tend to outgross), it's not crazy to say it has a shot at $400 M.

Yeah, I guess it has a shot. But only if it's better than the first. Which I don't think it will be.

Only betting a quarter of your face now?

Just a nostril now...

Erm. No.

I've long said that I expected the year's Top Five films to be selected from among the following: Transformers 2, Harry Potter 5, Star Trek 11 / 1.5, Night at The Museum 2, and Ice Age 3... with potential spoilers Terminator 4 and the year's only original blockbuster film, Avatar, hovering on the margins. And I've also been adamant that Transformers 2: Transform Harder would wind up the Number One film of 2009. So, I'm hardly going to abandon that prediction at this late stage in the game.

I will, therefore, project a franchise-best $340M for Half-Blood Prince, and a whopping $405M for Revenge of the Fallen. Both films will benefit from huge, broad expectations, as well as *SPOILER ALERT!*

Spoiler:

.

I must also -- proudly, defiantly -- admit that Star Trek will NOT, in fact, break $300M. $255M looks about it. I look forward to Summer 2012 (2011 will NOT see another Star Trek film, sorry) and what I fully expect to be this franchise's Dark Knight. And, please, no Khan.

All Trek fans ought to visit their local comic book store and pick up the first issue of the BRAND-NEW 3-part adaptation of Wrath of Khan. Awesome.

[img]http://rickoshea.files.wordpress.com/2009/04/star-trek-inspirational-poster.jpg[/img]

Transformers is not going to hit $400 million. For a film with an ad campaign that seems to be designed to repel its viewers, $350 million would be pushing it.

Also, I can't see Avatar making past $150 million. There's something about cutting-edge and different that doesn't always gel with viewers (*cough* Watchmen *cough*).

There was nothing cutting edge about Watchmen. It was just a piece of shit in slow motion.

And speaking of ad campaign for Tf2, where is it? I have seen a handful of TV spots and really nothing else. I've seen more for G.I. Joe and especially, Public Enemies.

J.I. wrote:Well considering the last one made over $700 million worldwide I would say this one has a good shot at $400 million, JackO. (yeah I know you mean internationally).

The last movie had an A grade on CinemaScore. People really liked it. If this one gets word of mouth saying that its better and more epic than the first one, it could very well hit $400 million. Besides, its not unprecedented (Pirates of the Caribbean, Batman Begins, Shrek)

um no. I mean exactly what i said. The last Harry Potter grossed 938M worldwide. Transformers 2 isn't touching that.

J.I., the word of mouth won't as close to being as good. By the looks of the trailers, it simply looks ridiculous. And to put the icing on the shit cake, they have Bumblebee sing "I'm So Excited" by The Pointer Sisters as if he's supposed to be Shia LeBeouf's stereotypically overjoyed mother. I think we've got another Armageddon in our hands (the reasoning being that the film is 151 minutes but will be divided between 30 minutes of plot, 9 minutes of credits and 112 minutes of crap that has nothing to do with anything).

And no, Megan Fox doing the whorey look that Gina Gershon felt she was too old for Showgirls will not help people enjoy the film.

I say... probably not.

Only the first HP movie made over 300 mil, and the problem with the series is that most average folk may be put off by watching a film unless they've seen the previous films, regardless of the death of a major character. The only thing this film has going for it is the poor line-up of films in August, but I suspect that won't be enough to push it much beyond the 300mil mark.

Transformers 2 may falter but only if it has very poor word of mouth. I think anticipation is much higher than HP6 considering the popularity of the first movie. It'll have a massive opening weekend and depending on what people think of it, it'll make anywhere from 280 Mil to 380, also depending on the strength of Public Enemies, Ice Age 3, and Bruno.

But for the moment I think it'll beat HP.

I'm definitely not in, but then again, I've got reason not to be

Definitely in...
1) The RotF trailers are fucking terrible. 2) Terminator: Salvation disappointed on pretty much all fronts...I mean if one franchise about robots destroying human civilization was gonna be THE movie of the year it was going to be the first one out. T:S proved people are tired of shitty robot movies. The only reason the first Transformers did so well was because of millions of hardcore fans of the series who have been waiting for years for a live-action movie adaptation. Most of whom were satisfied, BUT can anyone honestly say that they want to see the EXACT SAME THING again?

THBP on the other hand will benefit from being pushed back...Anticipation for this movie is incredibly high. Plus, the trailers look awesome, there is no competition really at all, AND any fan will tell you that this is the best book of the series by far.

So...

Harry Potter breaks The Dark Knight's midnight showing record of $18M by grossing $22M. That beats Transformers 2's midnights by $6M.

It's on par to obliterate Transformers 2 week old Wednsday opening record, and may even top The Dark Knight's $67M opening day record.

Not as far-fetched as it once sounded, eh?