Harry Potter VS Transformers

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Harry Potter VS Transformers

Post by undeadmonkey on Wed May 20, 2009 12:37 am

With all the recent talk of which will be a better pick Terminator or NATM, It got me thinking about two other picks. Transformers and Potter. Transformers 2 is coming off of a wildly popular first installment, excluding a few select individuals who think it's not so popular silent tongue . Also sequels of popular films usually do better regardless wether its good or not. Harry Potter is on its 6th film now. There are no new book releases to help ramp up awareness like the last few films, but I really dont think it needs it. Which one do you all think is a better pick and why?



OT: I havent read the books, I was wondering if Harry is the half blood prince or its a new character or is it valdemort. If anyone can tell me it would be appreciated. Unless its a big plot spoiler then i dont want to know.


Last edited by undeadmonkey on Wed May 20, 2009 5:06 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Harry Potter VS Transformers

Post by geezer9687 on Wed May 20, 2009 12:47 am

I like both of them actually. It depends on the format. I like Transformers as the better box office pick, and I like Harry Potter as the better Ultimate pick. My reason for this: Harry Potter should win consecutive weekends, whereas Transformers has a very small chance to do so, with Ice Age 3 coming the week after it. Transformers will make more overall money though, which is why I like it's box office potential.

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Re: Harry Potter VS Transformers

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Wed May 20, 2009 1:34 am

I would take HP in this one, every HP movie is just about guaranteed at least $240 million. While Transformers did make over $300, not everybody liked it. I don't know though, most big budget sequels usually do better than the first - its always the third that has the huge drop-off.

It'll be close, but the 5th HP movie was the biggest grossing yet and the story is only getting better from here. I think HP6 has a better shot at hitting $300 than Transformers.

And I agree with Geez, HP will probably have more Top5 and def a higher IMDb score.

And, UDM, the identity of the HBP is very relevant to the story and it's a huge spoiler, they spend much of the book trying to figure out who it is.
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Re: Harry Potter VS Transformers

Post by undeadmonkey on Wed May 20, 2009 2:16 am

Alright, thanks for letting me know.

Actually Sorcerer's Stone is still the highest grossing, Phoenix is the second highest. I think they both have pretty good chance at over $300M, how much over that i dont know.
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Re: Harry Potter VS Transformers

Post by JackO on Wed May 20, 2009 3:54 am

Revenge of the Fallen is a can't miss + must have in my eyes.
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Re: Harry Potter VS Transformers

Post by Buscemi on Wed May 20, 2009 3:57 am

Harry Potter. There's a reason why no other studio wants to open against it.

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Re: Harry Potter VS Transformers

Post by geezer9687 on Wed May 20, 2009 4:07 am

Let me point out that Buscemi hates Transformers, if you haven't heard already.

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Re: Harry Potter VS Transformers

Post by Shrykespeare on Wed May 20, 2009 4:24 am

This is exactly the same battle as it was two years ago. I'll say the same thing as I did then:

Transformers will outgross HP in the States, but HP will make more money worldwide. Easily.

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Re: Harry Potter VS Transformers

Post by W on Wed May 20, 2009 5:25 am

Transformers will win. But, I think this HP will be the biggest one yet. People have been waiting nine extra months, and I've heard that this one is extra special.

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Re: Harry Potter VS Transformers

Post by thswrestler160 on Wed May 20, 2009 5:34 am

well there shouldnt really be any question on this one. transformers is going to out gross hp by a decent amount. especially since it has the 4th of july weekend after it opens up so it wont have quite as big a drop 2nd weekend. but i have a feeling this harry potter will out gross even the first. it just looks that good

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Re: Harry Potter VS Transformers

Post by Buscemi on Wed May 20, 2009 6:23 am

Transformers has to face Ice Age and Public Enemies in its second weekend. That will sharply divide its target audience (Ice Age targets children and families, Public Enemies targets older teens, twentysomethings and Depp fans) and may cause a large second week drop.

Meanwhile, the only things that Potter faces are G-Force in its second weekend and G.I. Joe in its fourth weekend. Also, it's a family film so it should hold well.

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Re: Harry Potter VS Transformers

Post by geezer9687 on Wed May 20, 2009 6:33 am

Which is why I like Potter to win consecutive weekends and makes it a much better Ultimate pick than Transformers.

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Re: Harry Potter VS Transformers

Post by A_Roode on Wed May 20, 2009 6:40 am

My vote was for Harry Potter. $300 Million should be do-able. 'Transformers 2' isn't review proof and it isn't immune to bad word of mouth. I don't know if it'll be any better or worse than the last one, but whereas the Harry Potter fans have an interest in following the story through to the end, I don't think that applies to Transformers 2. I can see it easily behaving like Wolverine if the film turns out to be disappointing to the fans.
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Re: Harry Potter VS Transformers

Post by transformers2 on Wed May 20, 2009 4:47 pm

Its a tough call. There both fantastic picks. I am going to give the slight edge to Transformers because i am a transformers fanboy.
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Re: Harry Potter VS Transformers

Post by geezer9687 on Wed May 20, 2009 5:24 pm

You are? Really?

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Re: Harry Potter VS Transformers

Post by becs on Wed May 20, 2009 8:00 pm

I think Harry Potter has much more potential for multiple weeks on top with less competition as the summer is winding down, likewise I expect there will be a greater potential for repeat viewings as opposed to T4.
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Re: Harry Potter VS Transformers

Post by Keyser Soze on Wed May 20, 2009 8:22 pm

I think I'll have to go with Transformers. I'm sure this comes a shock to everyone. Also, have never seen a Harry Potter flick so why start now?
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Re: Harry Potter VS Transformers

Post by JackO on Wed May 20, 2009 8:42 pm

Buscemi wrote:Transformers has to face Ice Age and Public Enemies in its second weekend. That will sharply divide its target audience (Ice Age targets children and families, Public Enemies targets older teens, twentysomethings and Depp fans) and may cause a large second week drop.

Meanwhile, the only things that Potter faces are G-Force in its second weekend and G.I. Joe in its fourth weekend. Also, it's a family film so it should hold well.

It's second weekend is also July 4th. That will cushion it's drop bigtime. It could be near 250M after 10 days.

Order of the Pheonix dropped nearly 60% in it's second weekend. If Bruno catches of like Borat, it could easily top 30+M.

Goblet of Fire dropped 60+% in it's 3rd weekend (after Thanksgiving)

Azkaban dropped over 60% in it's second weekend. etc. etc.

I see no reason why this Harry Potter is going to grow legs, especially with the delay in release.
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