The "'Star Trek' will break $300M' Club

Yeah, that's right. You heard me. Reverse the Second-Release-in-May Curse!


I resemble that remark

I'm doubtful

Hahahahaha this is a fanboy statement if I ever saw one. I doubt it will even break 200 million Swedge. what reason is there to believe it will be that big? Where is the precedent?

I've only got one thing to say to this club:



And that's coming from someone who thinks it will do well.

$300 million domestic. Nooooooo.
$300 million worldwide. Ye$$$$$$$.

Never. This will be more like Watchmen than Transformers - big enough opening followed by big drops. While it has a better rating to reach a broader audience and shorter running time to help ensure a big enough BO, it has much stronger competition. It won't crack 200M, I'm likely to lean that it won't break 150M based on how the last few Star Treks did.

Its only chance of doing extremely well is if it's a great movie (can keep up its rotten tomatoe rating really high), and then the hype based on its quality will keep it going (especially if Wolverine sucks as much as I hear).

It would need some major, major legs for it to hit this mark. If it was 200M, I might consider but 300M is NATM 2/T4 territory. Oh yeah, good to have you back again Swedgin!

If you lower it to $200M, I'm in. there is just too much competition for $300M.

the campaign for this movie has convinced a non-Trek fan (me) to get excited about a new Trek movie.. i'll definitely see it in the theater..

but, $300M? no chance... might do half that

My guess for the upper limit is $220 although I am planning for 175.

And I will be adding my 8 or 10 bucks towards that total. (20 if you count the wife being dragged along).

If it hits 300 M we will all be kicking ourselves for not taking it in BO Leagues...

The sequel will, easily. This is the Batman Begins of the series.

Taking into consideration the early tracking I see it making just on $200m, but no chance at $300m. But that isn't due to the amount of competition (indy IV did fine despite opening as the last of the May blockbusters, as did Pirates 3), there just isn't the same general interest in Star Trek as there are super hero movies, which allowed Iron Man and TDK to over perform beyond their expectations. However, despite this I think it will very good legs and probably get close to a 3.5 multiple.

undeadmonkey wrote:If you lower it to $200M, I'm in. there is just too much competition for $300M.

My thoughts exactly! :)

I'm in. I used to think the brand name would drive people away, but from what I'm seeing and hearing, their marketing ploy to emphasis the action above the Trek-iness is working.

Hell, if Iron Man can break $300m, I think this can. The ONLY competition it might have is T4, which I think is even more of a niche market than Star Trek. You have to know at least something about the Terminator lore to even be interested in the new one, which will hurt it by not bringing in new fans. Star Trek looks to be the exact opposite.

I'd say it might even be the highest grossing movie of the summer, depending on how Transformers does.

Actually, I see Harry Potter outdoing Transformers. Harry Potter is opening on the same weekend that The Dark Knight opened last year, has basically no competition for the next two weeks (outside of the horrible looking G-Force) and appeals to everyone. Meanwhile, Transformers must face Ice Age and Public Enemies in its second week and really only appeals to teen boys and men. Also, I'm convinced that people will like the second far less than the original.

edit disclaimer: i wrote this very late at night--not sure whether it fits the context of the thread or not

i hadn't really thought about it--but i've actually been expecting a better film from Tranny 2... not sure why... no good reason... we've just been blessed with a string of great sequels in recent years...

(keep in mind, i thought the first one was absolute dreck.. so my expectations are loooooooooow)

NSpan wrote:i hadn't really thought about it--but i've actually been expecting a better film from Tranny 2... not sure why... no good reason... we've just been blessed with a string of great sequels in recent years...

(keep in mind, i thought the first one was absolute dreck.. so my expectations are loooooooooow)

Whaaaa....?

If anything, Transformers 2 will be much more loud and stupid, have you seen the clip online of Shia trying to tell Bumblebee he's leaving him for college? Bumblebee starts crying and shit, it just reeks of a bad ALF episode. And there's a new Transformer with a fucking cane, who's supposed to be an old person. He can't hear well and takes him awhile to transform. I have no idea why Michael Bay is trying to make this into a comedy, I just have a bad feeling that it'll cross the line into stupid-stupid that the first one straddled so well (imo).

Here it is if anyone wants to see it: http://filmdrunk.uproxx.com/2009/04/transformers-footage-from-showest

wow. i honestly just thought that the series could ONLY GO UP from here... i was wrong

That actually hurt to watch. Soooo not interested.

Star Trek outgrossing Transformers 2? When it is tracking at a paltry 50M? Wow. Expectations for T2 is very low 'round here. I'd say 385M at least with a decent chance for 400M+.

Trek will be lucky to get 150M. 200M would be mindblowing.

While Transformers will probably outgross Star Trek, there's no way in hell it can get $400m. I think that club is reserved for Pirates, Shreks, and the odd anamoly (Dark Knight).

Steve Mason may want to join this club...

From his updated Wolverine numbers "Meanwhile, Star Trek (Paramount) has a chance to be this year’s Iron Man, an early May release that plays deep into the summer at a high multiple in the 3.2-3.3 range."

If it opens to the current tracking's 50m range that would be just 160/170M, but his comparing it to Iron Man would have me believe he thinks it would open much much bigger [Will I have to eat my words on it grossing less than 150M? Could be... I may do a 360 and add it to slates if its tracking next week is huge].

So it's only me and Nico? Anyone wanna get it on this before it's too late?

Tracking pretty high, and sitting at 94% on metacritic and 8.2 on IMDb with 2,000 votes so far....

Looking pretty good.

As much as I want to join, I will have to decline membership. There aren't amny of us here who have been around as long as this franchise, and I've seen every epsiodeof every series and every movie that has ever been made. Am I excited to see this, hell yeah, but is John Q. Public as excited as we are? Ummmmmmmmm, No. You're average guy on the street still thinks of Star Trek as geek fare. It has names they will recognize but not the faces. Some non fans may go see it out of curiosity or because the commercials looked good, but it will not get the multiple viewings that it would take to get this puppy to $300 mill.

I see upper 180's to maybe, just maybe making it to 200