SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 7/15-7/17 - Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince et al.

Hard to believe the juiciest part of the summer season is almost over, isn’t it? Yes, folks, the summer that began with so much promise a mere ten weeks ago is now in it’s second half, and when a short time ago, all of the potential blockbusters were ahead of us, now they are all behind us. All except one, that is. One really REALLY big film left to tantalize audiences, one year exactly after another monstrously large film broke all kinds of records and left with the distinction of being the #2 grossing film of all time, an Academy-Award-winning film that garnered virtually every accolade imaginable, and is generally thought of as the best comic-book movie ever made.

Now, the weekend of July 17th in 2009 will not herald the release of another film that will cross the exalted half-billion dollar plateau. But it will feature the latest installment of a franchise that has virtually rewritten the record books on how a series of literary adaptations should go. The first five movies based on the Harry Potter series of books has grossed over $1.4 billion domestically, and done even better than that overseas. (Don’t believe me? Consider this: all five films are currently in the Top 13 grossing films of all time, for movies shown outside the U.S.)


Title (release date in US), US Gross (Pos.), Overseas Gross (Pos.)

Sorcerer’s Stone (11/16/01) - $317.6M (#23) - $651.1M (#3)
Chamber of Secrets (11/15/02) - $262.0M (#41) - $604.4M (#7)
Prisoner of Azkaban (6/4/04) - $249.5M (#51) - $540.1M (#13)
Goblet of Fire (11/18/05) - $290.0M (#35) - $602.2M (#8 )
Order of the Phoenix (7/11/07) - $292.0M (#32) - $645.0M (#5)

To put that further into perspective, folks: the two Transformers movies aren’t…even… close.

Of course, the game we love to play doesn’t deal with overseas numbers, so the question remains: can Harry Potter keep pace with the latest Michael Bay behemoth, which got off to a terrific start despite largely underwhelming reviews? Well, as you can see, only one Potter film has ever cracked $300 million (the first one), and I’m simply not optimistic enough to think that Half-Blood Prince will outdo all of its predecessors to the extent that it will be able to finish anywhere near Transformers in total box office. However…

While the Harry Potter franchise, whose cast is comprised entirely of actors and actresses from the British Isles (something author J.K. Rowling specified right from the beginning), does not seem to have quite the backing that Transformers does, it is no less potent a threat. The main reason for this is that Transformers, for all its hype, had a lot of competition: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, Public Enemies and Bruno. Half-Blood Prince, on the other hand, has virtually nothing standing in its way all the way through July and well into August.

Honestly, I foresee only two movies remaining on the summer schedule that have a better-than-average chance of breaking $100 million: the Sandler/Rogen comedy Funny People, and the Dennis Quaid actioner G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra. Translation: Harry Potter could, and will, be in the Top 3 for four consecutive weeks. That means that when all is said and done, it will have even more Top 5 points than even Transformers did. And not only that, it will have a noticeably better User Rating: Transformers will probably finish in the low-to-mid 6’s, and I cannot picture Half-Blood Prince finishing with a Rating any less than 7.7 (it currently holds an 8.3 with over 2,000 votes). And if THAT isn’t enough, it currently has a score of 98% fresh on RottenTomatoes.com, with only one bad review counted out of 41. That ain’t hay, folks.

Add to all that the fact that it has been two years since the last installment, The Order of the Phoenix, the longest gap between films thus far. (It wouldn’t have been so, because Part 6 was originally scheduled to come out last winter, but TPTB obviously decided that a summer release would be better PR; not only would it have a better chance of making more money, but it wouldn’t be running smack into Twilight.) There is only one more chapter after this one, The Deathly Hallows, but that tome was so massive that the film adaptation will be split into two parts, the first of which will hit theaters in winter 2010. Needless to say, fans are hungry for more Potter, and now they'll get it.

In Half-Blood Prince (you may want to skip this part if you haven’t seen the movies or read the books, as it will make little sense to you), the Death Eaters are wreaking havoc in both the wizard world and the “muggle” world, and Hogwarts’ headmaster Dumbledore (Michael Gambon) is preparing Harry (Daniel Radcliffe) for the final battle with the evil Lord Voldemort (Ralph Fiennes) that is fast approaching.

And in case you haven’t been paying attention, the main characters aren’t little kids anymore, and look for Half-Blood Prince to contain far more “romantic” elements than any part before it: Harry’s best friends Ron (Rupert Grint) and Hermione (Emma Watson) are discovering their burgeoning feelings towards each other, as are Harry and Ron’s younger sister Ginny (Bonnie Wright). I have not read the stories (I may someday after all this is over), but I have it on good authority that at least one major character dies in HBP, so this may also ratchet up the tension and anticipation for this film.

For $43 in Ultimate leagues ($44 in Box Office), if you haven’t already grabbed Ice Age, you have little choice but to take this title. It is a must; you cannot win without it. (And some stalwart players have found ways to incorporate both titles!) I predict an opening 5-day weekend of $160 million, en route to 17 Top 5 points, 9 PTA, a User Rating of 7.9 and $330 million, which would make it the most successful installment of the series (at least, until next year…).

I wish I knew how to properly research release platforms for the smaller films on the docket, and I don’t want to mislead anyone, so I’ll just keep what I know about the remaining films of the weekend to a minimum.

(500) Days of Summer is a romantic comedy which chronicles the relationship between a young man named Tom Hanson (Joseph Gordon-Leavitt) and Summer Finn (Zooey Deschanel). The “500 Days” in the title basically describes the length of time that their relationship spans – but be careful. From what I’ve read, the story is not told linearly. It goes all the way from their first meeting to their messy break-up and back again, and all to a really fantastic soundtrack.

Much like Harry Potter, it has a stellar RottenTomatoes score (93% fresh) and a great IMDb rating (8.2 with over 900 votes), so even though it is priced at a hefty $9 in Ultimate leagues, it could end up paying dividends in at least two categories. Will it have enough gumption to steal the PTA crown from HP? Doubtful, but #2 on that chart is definitely possible, as it is being released in only 27 theaters. How it expands from there is unknown, but I really wouldn’t spend the $5 on it in Box Office, as I don’t foresee making much more than $12 million, and only if it expands well past 800 theaters down the line.

Somers Town tells the story of a London teenager who forges an unlikely friendship with a Polish immigrant boy over the course of a summer. Filmed in black-and-white, this film received decent acclaim at the Berlin and Tribeca Film Festivals. It, too, has a very respectable RT score (91% Fresh) and IMDb rating (7.0 with almost 1,400 votes), and for $4, this title could, much like Humpday last weekend, reach out from left field and snag some valuable PTA points right under everyone’s nose.

Homecoming is an indie-thriller directed by Morgan Freeman (no, not THAT Morgan Freeman; this one produces the new MTV series 16 and Pregnant), and it stars Mischa Barton (The O.C.) as Shelby, the old flame of a former star quarterback (Matt Long) who, apparently, still carries a nasty torch for the guy, as she uses her hometown’s homecoming game as an excuse to make life hell for her ex’s current GF (Jessica Stroup). Part slasher, part thriller, I can’t honestly see this film making that big a splash in any category at all. It’s only $3, but then, so are Big Macs, doesn’t make them good for you either.

The Square, according to ComingSoon, has been pulled from its release date, and given an unspecified fall release date in its place. A shame, as it currently boasts an RT score of 100% Fresh, which could have made things very interesting indeed.


My predictions for the weekend of July 17-10, 2009:

1. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - $85 million ($160 million 5-day)
2. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs - $17 million
3. Bruno - $15 million
4. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - $14 million
5. Public Enemies - $7 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, things calm down a little bit as I tackle six new titles – three wide-release and three limited-release – that will be released on the weekend of July 24th. Included are G-Force, a kid-oriented family Disney comedy/adventure featuring Sam Rockwell, Tracy Morgan and Penelope Cruz as a team of government-trained guinea pigs who must stop a diabolical billionaire from taking over the world; The Ugly Truth, a rom-com starring Gerard Butler as a macho TV correspondent who wages his job that he can successfully navigate a relationship between his love-starved producer (Katherine Heigl) and a man she desperately wants to woo; and finally, Orphan, a horror film that proves, once again, that people should never adopt creepy kids.

Later![table]

One mistake, the last installment was Order of the Pheonix, not The Goblet of Fire. Good work as always Shrykester!

500 Days Of Summer is actually getting good reviews? I actually expected critics to trash it because of the weirdness and the supposed creepiness of the plot.

geezer9687 wrote:One mistake, the last installment was Order of the Pheonix, not The Goblet of Fire. Good work as always Shrykester!

You're right. Corrected.

And I neglected to mention that Potter trailers, are always, always, ALWAYS among the best of the year.

Good stuff, as always. I cannot wait until Harry Potter midnight shows!
I'm expecting the 5-day to be anywhere from $140-$170.

Good stuff Shryke, glad you're putting the limited stuff in here too!

Great column. Can I have a jar of your semen?

I just wanted to let Busci know that 500 Days isn't creepy compared to some things (or people). LOL

brockman81 wrote:Good stuff Shryke, glad you're putting the limited stuff in here too!

Well, I have it on good authority that Chien won't be able to resume his column-writing for a while, so I figure a paragraph for each title wouldn't tax me too much.

Donte77 wrote:Great column. Can I have a jar of your semen?

You wouldn't like what it'd cost you.

Just saw Harry Potter. I even wrote a review of it, but my blog's admin site doesn't seem to be working.

I gave it 4/5 stars. Slow-paced, not much action, and most of the humor came courtesy of the protagonists' raging hormones. This was very much like Empire Strikes Back, as it serves as a platform for the final chapter (with a very stunning revelation/plot development at the end, and I won't say more than that).

Harry Potter made $26.8 million on Friday, putting it's 3-day total at $107 million, about $20 million behind Transformers' first three days.

It's beginning to look like a 5-day total somewhere between $140M and $150 million. Still a stellar start, the best in HP history (in the US, anyway).

Other than that, look for the Top 5 to be the same as I predicted, with the exception of Transformers doing slightly better and Bruno doing slightly worse.

really? only 140-150 if it gets a small boost up to 31 or so sat. and then drops back to 22 on sunday that gives it 160 and it could be higher. OOTP did a similar bump on sat no reason this one wont

BOM's Sunday estimates:

Top 5
5. Harry Potter - $79.5M ($159.7M total)
4. Ice Age - $17.7M
3. Transformers - $13.7M
2. Bruno - $8.4
1. The Hangover - $8.3

PTA
5. 500 Days of Summer - $31,037
4. Harry Potter - $18,376
3. Hurt Locker - $8,128
2. Ice Age - $4,637
1. Transformers - $3,565


Expect the PTA numbers to change, but DAMN, Hurt Locker just keeps going, huh? And how about 500 Days?

love the 500 days of summer numbers. had it on all my ultimate slates.

i had it on quite few slates too