Watchmen Weekend Tracking

I'd now say that it's going to hit the 70m mark for opening weekend, that's a much stronger midnight showing then 300 posted (300 picked up 2.5m from its midnight showings, although, it was in about a 1000 less theaters).

I think people are looking at its long play time as working against it, but its making it up with a lot more theaters, and Lord of the Rings: Return of the King made it to 70m opening with the around same amount of theaters and about 40 more minutes, so its not impossible.

Also, the DHD daily article has been fleshed out, and it looks at whether or not Watchmen can have legs after this weekend, but comment that if it opens to 70m, at the least it'll probably hit 150m (a Quantum of Solace style drop still leads to decent numbers).

J-Man wrote:I'd now say that it's going to hit the 70m mark for opening weekend, that's a much stronger midnight showing then 300 posted (300 picked up 2.5m from its midnight showings, although, it was in about a 1000 less theaters).

I think people are looking at its long play time as working against it, but its making it up with a lot more theaters, and Lord of the Rings: Return of the King made it to 70m opening with the around same amount of theaters and about 40 more minutes, so its not impossible.

Also, the DHD daily article has been fleshed out, and it looks at whether or not Watchmen can have legs after this weekend, but comment that if it opens to 70m, at the least it'll probably hit 150m (a Quantum of Solace style drop still leads to decent numbers).

First of all, Lord of the Rings was PG-13. So was TDK. You have to take that into mind when talking about the whole 'running-time didn't affect those movies' argument.

This is a VERY R-rated film. I seriously doubt it will have much rewatchability value outside of it's core fan base (and this is coming from someone who watched it and really liked it). Very different from 300 where it was basically bad-ass action sequences after each other, this is more story oriented and it definitely isn't something you would go watch just to 'kill time'..

I think if it does open to 70 million then we are in for some huge drops. 150-165 million IMO.

I just got back from it and I agree Barca. I don't think it will have the rewatchability outside of its core. I don't know how the general public is going to react to it. Shit, I still don't know how I'm reacting to it. I think someone would have to be absolutely blown away to sit through a film that is that long again. I just don't see that happening with Watchmen.

Hmm... You're right, I wasn't thinking about the rating, partially because here in Quebec its rated 13+.

But I don't think that totally matters if the demand is high enough on its first weekend, if there are enough 18 plus year olds who can pack a theater that want to see an R-rated movie, it matters how many theaters/screens there are available and not the rating for the total weekend grosses. 300 was an R rated film, and it hit the 70m mark, and Watchmen is attempting to make up the difference in running time with more theaters/screens.

All that said, DHD is saying the movie is on track to make 25M on its first day including the midnight showings, which leads me to believe that it'll fall in the 60s.

My opinion of the film: I really enjoyed the film, and just put aside the Snyder-isms that can detract from the film imo (I loved the graphic novel, btw). I can see people liking the action enough to see it twice - people saw Dark Knight twice, which had a similar amount of action - so it theoretically could still perform in the same matter at a lesser scale because of the R rating, even though I doubt it will. Also, I didn't notice the movies length, in the same way I don't notice any good long movies length. I'll have to see it again (probably wait for DVD, but thats not special in my case, as I never see movies in theater twice, unless its months or years apart) to know if I loved it or just liked it.

You may have not noticed the length, but I don't know if that will be the general consensus. I say this because I overheard a conversation as i was leaving the theater. One guy says to the next "So you probably didn't understand a lot of that huh?" (I assume because one had read the book, the other hadn't.) His response "I understood that that movie was long as fuck."

The Dark Knight was a much easier film for the public to take in. It had more star power, it was summer, had no competition, was PG-13 and was better overall. I think the comparisons don't really apply.

Its really 13+ in Canada? Its a pretty hard R. Graphic violence and sex throughout. I guess Canada is just a lot more liberal than us.

The people in my theatre seemed totally bemused by it who were not familiar with the comic. They were asking questions about Rorschach and his mask. Man they couldn't even pronounce his name! And since watching it I have read some comments on the Coming Soon discussion page and there have been plenty of mentions of too long and boring and too confusing. That isn't gonna go down well with the word of mouth, thus stunting its legs.

geezer9687 wrote:You may have not noticed the length, but I don't know if that will be the general consensus. I say this because I overheard a conversation as i was leaving the theater. One guy says to the next "So you probably didn't understand a lot of that huh?" (I assume because one had read the book, the other hadn't.) His response "I understood that that movie was long as fuck."

The Dark Knight was a much easier film for the public to take in. It had more star power, it was summer, had no competition, was PG-13 and was better overall. I think the comparisons don't really apply.

Its really 13+ in Canada? Its a pretty hard R. Graphic violence and sex throughout. I guess Canada is just a lot more liberal than us.

It's 18A in BC, and probably has similar ratings across most of Canada. Quebec has a much more European attitude towards sex on screen, which is possibly why it's only 13+ there.

All the comments about the mixed reactions from mainstream audiences are exactly what I anticipated and why I have Watchmen on none of my slates. I never saw this movie having much crossover appeal, so I always thought it was overpriced at close to $40. It still might be a good pick in Ultimate leagues because the fanboy circle jerk will probably lead to an 8+ IMDB rating.

It looks like a $25 million opening day would lead to a 20% drop on Saturday (a lot less if you take out midnights) to $20 million, and then down 30% on Sunday to $14 million. That's $59 million. To open well into the $60 million range, the opening day is going to have to go a few million higher.

I just got back from seeing Watchmen. I liked it a lot. But I think it's going to appeal only to the fanboys / readers of the novel.

70 mil looks possible for the weekend. But 65 mil is still great for a Rated-R comic book movie with no stars.

Revised Predictions:

Domestic: 180-190

Worldwide: 400-425

I was running on wishful thinking mostly but it's still a hit. Alan Moore's curse has failed for opening weekend (at least).

With a 180-190mil prediction, it will have to reach beyond the fanboys to get there, because that's pretty big number and in line with what I expect the picture to make at its price point (of course, I hope for more). If its less, I'll be disappointed, but it can still make enough points in Ultimate. For its price point, I think it'll be in line with X-Men Origins: Wolverine.

Sorry for posting back to back.

Steve Mason's Twitter: Official early estimates for WATCHMEN - $25.2M Fri, $62.5M 3-day, $160M US. Full article here

160m is 20m less than I expected, and 40m less then what I'd hoped when picking it. Hopefully he's wrong, and it has the same multiple as 300 (well, hopefully for those of us that have it in many slates).

Don't listen to the total grosses just yet. But I think at this point it will be hard pressed for $60 million this weekend.

just around the number i thought it would do so i think i made a good guess with 55-65.

J.I. wrote:Don't listen to the total grosses just yet. But I think at this point it will be hard pressed for $60 million this weekend.

It's Fri -Sun drop is going to rival Twilight if that estimate holds! 40% of it's OW gross on Friday.

Well DHD is predicting only $55 million off of that number, so my estimate is pretty conservative compared to that. It looks like it will get $59 million, unless its Saturday drop is under 15%.

Steve Mason updated his twitter again this evening - "WATCHMEN: New 3-day projection is a possible $57M. Running time is hurting the picture. My guess is now $145M for a total domestic target." I'm betting that it'll do better than 145m total. If Taken can have a multiple of more than 4.5, I think Watchmen with all its marketing can pull a 3.0. [Either that, or I'm in major denial - which could be, as I'm betting on it in three Feb leagues, and one March league.]

Hmmm....$57 million? More than I expected, but not quite the $70 everyone seemed to like.

I still think it's gonna have a hard time reaching $100 million. I expect a Friday the 13th-style drop off next weekend.

Why would anyone expect a Friday the 13th style drop? Friday the thirteenth had the biggest drop of any film ever that didn't completely bomb. It came out ON FRIDAY THE THIRTEENTH. When its entire target audience will have seen it. Friday the 13th was never going to have repeat viewers. Its a dumb slasher flick. Watchmen will at least have repeat views from its core audience. To say it won't reach 100 million or drop 85% is ridiculous. It certainly could drop 60-65%, but 85%, that's crazy.

Box Office Mojo weekend estimate: $55.7 million. Third biggest March opening ever.

March 6th-8th Weekend Estimates (from Box Office Mojo):

1 Watchmen WB $55,655,000 --
2 Tyler Perry's Madea Goes to Jail LGF $8,800,000 -45.6%
3 Taken Fox $7,450,000 -24.5%
4 Slumdog Millionaire FoxS $6,925,000 -42.4%
5 Paul Blart: Mall Cop Sony $4,200,000 -25.0%
6 He's Just Not That Into You WB (NL) $4,020,000 -33.1%
7 Coraline Focus $3,313,000 -37.0%
8 Confessions of a Shopaholic BV $3,121,000 -32.7%
9 Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience BV $2,785,000 -77.7%
10 Fired Up SGem $2,600,000 -29.8%
- Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li Fox $1,365,000 -71.1%
- Tokyo! LibE $21,500 -- (1 theatre)
- 12 SPC $13,000 -- (5 theatres, $2,600)

Notes:
-a little disappointed with Watchmen's opening but you can't win them all
-On the Jonas Brothers and Street Fighter drops: wow.
-Paul Blart just won't die...or fall asleep from lack of sugar
-Why hasn't Fired Up dropped yet? A film series from Maxim is the last thing Hollywood needs right now.
-Very surprised about Tokyo (5 PTA points). Didn't expect this one to appeal to anyone outside of the Gondry completists.
-About 12 That is all.

That is now 20 Top 5 points for Taken. Just amazing.

12 was a big bust. God. damn. it.

No word yet on The Horsemen or Phoebe in Wonderland. Probably tomorrow.

In the Feb-Apr season 12 only cost $5. I'll take the 8.0 imdb score and be thankful for that. Now, $8 for the Mar-May season? I would call it a bust.

Horsemen and Phoebe in Wonderland didn't get any PTA points. Estimates have Horsemen at 880 PTA and Phoebe at 2,420.

http://moviecitynews.com/columnists/klady/2009/090308.html

Yeah, we need to remember that both 300 and The Dark Knight had over a 3 multiple. I don't think the general public (people who didn't read the graphic novel) will like it as much as those two movies, but neither of them fell 54% or more in their second weekends. It should finish around $135 million total.

Wow at Taken and Paul Blart. Taken is still in the top 3 after 6 weekends and Paul Blart is still in the top 5 after 8 weekends . Also good for Madea Goes to Jail and He's Just Not That Into You. They still won't make it over $100 million unless the studio keeps them in long enough.

EDIT: 300 also made $26 million in the Monday-Thursday after its opening weekend. Since Watchmen has the same opening weekend, will it have that Spring Break benefit?

geezer9687 wrote:Why would anyone expect a Friday the 13th style drop? Friday the thirteenth had the biggest drop of any film ever that didn't completely bomb. It came out ON FRIDAY THE THIRTEENTH. When its entire target audience will have seen it. Friday the 13th was never going to have repeat viewers. Its a dumb slasher flick. Watchmen will at least have repeat views from its core audience. To say it won't reach 100 million or drop 85% is ridiculous. It certainly could drop 60-65%, but 85%, that's crazy.

You don't think all the fanboys didn't rush out to see it this weekend? I doubt repeat business will be enough to power it past $100, or at the most, $125.

This is a niche movie, and so far this year, all the one-demographic movies have had HUGE drops (F13, Notorious, Jonas, etc).