Up Weekend Tracking

by JackO Tue May 26, 2009 2:25 am

RS 5/29
-- notfabio, May 25, 14:37

Main openers are down considerbly but RS has a tendency to dial back their numbers when they waaay waaay waaay over project the previous weekend.

UP: Mid 40's
DRAG: High Teens (sizably down from where it had it)

Future:

Land: Low 50's
Proposal: High Teens
Pelham: Low 30's
Imagine: Mid Teens
Hang: High Teens

by JackO Tue May 26, 2009 2:26 am

Pardon my French but after the T4 debacle, FUCK tracking.

by mfrendo Tue May 26, 2009 2:39 am

Yeah, I'm with you on that, JackO.

by undeadmonkey Tue May 26, 2009 2:55 am

i'm with you two too. and its not just been T4, its been like that this whole year

by transformers2 Tue May 26, 2009 4:20 am

Im with Jacko. Tracking can go fuck itself.

by W Tue May 26, 2009 4:22 am

Hangover is a little low, LOTL is a little high.

by BanksIsDaFuture Tue May 26, 2009 4:30 am

Yeah, tracking is merely a suggestion of where the weekend might land. I don't know if it's actually based on anything credible.

But it looks good - Drag Me To Hell has a ceiling of mid-20s imo, but who knows where Up might fall. It's Pixar and they're almost always good for 40-50 OW and 200 total, but this just doesn't look up to par with their past movies. I think it could open anywhere from the mid-30s to the mid-50s, but it'll probably have great reviews and great legs.

Meanwhile, I think Terminator will have a drop of at least 60% and NaTM might fall around 50%. MY guesses for the weekend:

1. Up - $44 million
2. Night At The Museum 2 - $36 million
3. Drag Me To Hell - $25 million
4. Terminator Salvation - $19 million
5. Star Trek - $16 million

by **BarcaRulz** Tue May 26, 2009 6:39 am

Will be interesting to see how Up will do with competition from Night which opened just the one week before.

Hopefully it can pull a big OW off. Terminator (whuda thunk it?) looks like it is about to drop hard.

by Donte77 Tue May 26, 2009 10:35 pm

Tracking giving LotL a mid 50 is dead dead wrong. Does anybody even care about that movie???

And yeah trackig has been all over the place this year. I don't remember it being this off last year.

by W Tue May 26, 2009 10:38 pm

You should just listen to me, you bastards! Evil or Very Mad

by **geezer9687** Tue May 26, 2009 11:12 pm

I agree! Listen to W!!! You should write a column!!!

by JackO Wed May 27, 2009 12:03 am

MTC 5/29
-- notfabio, May 26, 14:49
62 UP
17 Drag

by JackO Wed May 27, 2009 12:04 am

So looking at the tracking Up can open anywhere from 35M-75M. THANKS!

While Drag Me doesn't quite look as prosperous as a few weeks ago. Another semi-tracking to watch is that Friday night, notfabio might come online and say that MTC adjusted their weekend projections. They did it for Wolverine (100-85) and they did it for NATM 2 (72-55). They had better not do it for TRF2!

by transformers2 Wed May 27, 2009 1:31 am

Here Is my tracking for this weekend
Up-Anything-Insert Dollar Amount Here
Drag Me To Hell ????????????-Its A Crapshoot

Thats deep analysis if i do say so myself Very Happy

by W Wed May 27, 2009 1:41 am

see, I don't think things that way. I look at it this way.

Drag Me To Hell = worth the price
Up = worth the price in ULT only

by J.I. Wed May 27, 2009 2:03 am

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:it looks good - Drag Me To Hell has a ceiling of mid-20s imo, but who knows where Up might fall. It's Pixar and they're almost always good for 40-50 OW and 200 total

Big understatement. The only Pixar film from Monsters Inc. on that didn't clear $60 million OW was Ratatouille, AND this has the benefit of 3D. 3D may not seem like it helps much, but they've added a lot of screens since My Bloody Valentine and Coraline, and MvA did really well with 3D.

but this just doesn't look up to par with their past movies. I think it could open anywhere from the mid-30s to the mid-50s, but it'll probably have great reviews and great legs.

? Seems to cancel itself out, meaning that it will be awesome just like the rest of their movies if not more.

JackO wrote:MTC 5/29
-- notfabio, May 26, 14:49
62 UP
17 Drag

Glad to see that, considering that MTC is a lot more reliable than RS.

by BanksIsDaFuture Wed May 27, 2009 5:43 am

What I meant was that personally, it doesn't look up to par with all of the great Pixar movies past. But from what I've heard from Cannes and early reviews, it's supposed to be amazing. Sorry if it was confusing, I tend to do that.

I thought Ratatouille and Wall-E both look pretty bad, and one was great while the other was awful. So to me, it could go either way.

And I didn't look at any numbers for Pixar's OW record, so I just threw some numbers out there.

by **silversurfer19** Wed May 27, 2009 6:08 am

I'm with Banks on this one, I don't have the same feeling I've had about Up as I have had about previous Pixar releases. It just isn't looking like a movie which is leaps and bounds ahead of all other animated movies at the moment. I'm hoping it will change my mind.

And I love both Ratatouille and Wall-E, which one did you find awful?

by transformers2 Wed May 27, 2009 6:57 am

it was Wall-E surfer. I also wasnt a big fan of Wall-E still havent seen Ratatouille.

by **Buscemi** Wed May 27, 2009 8:04 am

They are promoting The Hangover all over Las Vegas. No surprise there.

Yes, I am in Las Vegas. It's basically Hell on Earth.

by J.I. Wed May 27, 2009 8:06 am

Its pretty sad that the last three Pixar movies have had some backlash from moviegoers.

by **silversurfer19** Wed May 27, 2009 8:18 am

Cars was very deserving. It lost what made it inherently Pixar and went all Dreamworks on us.

by W Wed May 27, 2009 8:29 am

Buscemi wrote:They are promoting The Hangover all over Las Vegas. No surprise there.

Yes, I am in Las Vegas. It's basically Hell on Earth.

I'll bet it's more like Heaven to me... Especially the poker rooms.

by **silversurfer19** Wed May 27, 2009 8:35 am

I suppose unless you like poker, neon lights or tacky architecture Las Vegas pretty much would be hell on Earth. I at least have no desire to ever visit it.

by **Buscemi** Wed May 27, 2009 8:41 am

To me, the only people that I think can enjoy Las Vegas:

-gamblers
-horny men
-people who have absolutely no respect for women

Boy am I going to hate watching The Hangover.

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