Watchmen Weekend Tracking

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Re: Watchmen Weekend Tracking

Post by Buscemi on Mon Mar 09, 2009 1:01 am

But wasn't Fired Up also a one-demographic movie (homophobic and dumb but horny teenage boys) yet managed only a 30% second week drop?

Meanwhile, my opinion on 12.

There are three possible reasons of why the film flopped:

-The studio left the film on the shelf for two years (despite the film managing an Academy Award nomination and being from the director of an Academy Award winning foreign language film) and released it with no advertising or awareness.
-the film is two hours and forty minutes but then again so was Watchmen and that opened at Number One
-The target audience for this film usually shuns American remakes of foreign films. This was a foreign (Russian) remake of an American film (12 Angry Men). Perhaps the same audience avoided the film because it was a remake?

But then again, Sony Pictures Classics titles have had as of late disappointing openings (see I've Loved You So Long, The Class and Waltz With Bashir) but managed to turn things around with positive word of mouth and good expansions. Maybe this film could do the same and salvage the $5 or $8 that some of us spent on the pick.

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Re: Watchmen Weekend Tracking

Post by J.I. on Mon Mar 09, 2009 1:02 am

It doesn't even need to come that close to a 2 multiple to get to $100 million. We've only had 5 movies ever to open over $40 million and not make it to $100 million (Scary Movie 4, Cloverfield, HSM3, Friday the 13th, and Madea Goes to Jail), and not one of those opened over $43 million.
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Re: Watchmen Weekend Tracking

Post by Buscemi on Mon Mar 09, 2009 1:04 am

I wouldn't count Madea Goes To Jail out yet. It's a long shot but it's still very possible (it's at $76.5 million right now).

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Re: Watchmen Weekend Tracking

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Mon Mar 09, 2009 8:09 am

Buscemi wrote:But wasn't Fired Up also a one-demographic movie (homophobic and dumb but horny teenage boys) yet managed only a 30% second week drop?


Yes, there's always exceptions to the rule, but I don't think Fired Up! is one of them. From the audiences I've seen watching Fired Up!, it seems to attract two demos: the randy young guys going for hot chicks in short skirts and teen females going for the cheerleading angle.

I'm more than likely wrong about Watchmen (I think it's my personal bias), but I'll stick to my $125 million ceiling on the domestic gross.
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Re: Watchmen Weekend Tracking

Post by Buscemi on Mon Mar 09, 2009 8:58 am

I still think that this film can recover. If Hancock can make $225 million despite middling reviews and a lukewarm reaction, then this film can still manage decent legs. And the film will probably be accepted even more in foreign markets. Though comic book films aren't international hits, they seem to welcome with open arms smart films that polarized or didn't reach mainstream American audiences the first time around.

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Re: Watchmen Weekend Tracking

Post by BarcaRulz on Mon Mar 09, 2009 9:57 am

Buscemi wrote:I still think that this film can recover. If Hancock can make $225 million despite middling reviews and a lukewarm reaction, then this film can still manage decent legs. And the film will probably be accepted even more in foreign markets. Though comic book films aren't international hits, they seem to welcome with open arms smart films that polarized or didn't reach mainstream American audiences the first time around.

Hancock was:

- a Will Smith film
- only 92 minutes
- action/comedy
- pg-13

Sometimes it's not all about the critical acclaim. Legs have more to do with consumer reaction than they do with critical reaction. Hancock may have been hated by the critics, but audiences didn't mind it, and at the end of the day it was a 1h30m blockbuster that had shitloads of action and comedy led by one certain Will Smith.

Very bad example IMO.

People have to remember that this is an R-rated movie that is nearly 3 hours long with a much smaller demographic than normal action/comedy/big star blockbusters. I think the daily drop for the weekend number proves that much.

This film will max out at $125M-$135M IMO.

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Re: Watchmen Weekend Tracking

Post by geezer9687 on Mon Mar 09, 2009 10:19 am

What he said

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Re: Watchmen Weekend Tracking

Post by Buscemi on Mon Mar 09, 2009 10:33 am

Actually, I don't even remember audiences liking Hancock. Sure a few people may have, but they most likely forgot it after The Dark Knight opened. The plot was a mess, the characters were unmemorable, the big surprises were more "what the fuck?" rather than "holy fuck, that's a great idea" (example: the Will Smith/Charlize Theron fight scene), the villains were non-existent since none of the twenty or so writers came up with a backstory or why the main character was fighting these characters and the ending was just as bad.

But still, Will Smith or no Will Smith, the success of the film still remains a mystery to me since neither critics or audiences liked the film and the final release was basically a classic Akiva Goldsman hackjob of a film. Perhaps Goldsman sold his soul to make his films hits no matter how bad they are (Batman Forever, Batman and Robin, The Da Vinci Code, Mr. and Mrs. Smith, Jumper and probably a few others).

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Re: Watchmen Weekend Tracking

Post by JackO on Mon Mar 09, 2009 5:46 pm

I think Hancock sold well because it had a great hook. Will Smith as an alcoholic superhero. A family friendly asshole, if you will. I personally thought it was a mess of a film but it was still popcorn worthy. It was like a once and done sort of deal. And it was a much easier sit through then I Am Legend. Plus it was the only wide release film on the July 4th holiday weekend.
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Re: Watchmen Weekend Tracking

Post by IPKI$$ on Mon Mar 09, 2009 10:04 pm

I saw it last night, and as someone who had very little understanding of the graphic novel, I think we're dealing with another Cloverfield...I don't think a whole lot of people will be seeing this again, and despite the lack of competition in the coming weeks I just can't see it living up to the hype.
Frankly, it was slow, boring, and way too self aware. Basically, Watchmen was exactly everything that I hated about 300. It's like Zack Snyder didn't care if people had never read the novel before and didn't bother to clue us in at a lot of points. I mean, I understood everything, but I could see a lot of people being confused. And visually, it was cool, but not really that cool, which was the least I was hoping to be good. I knew the acting (besides Haley's Rorschach of course) would be terrible, but why did everything else have to follow suit? I think the consensus with non-fanboys will be about the same, and with a movie promoted as heavily as this one, WOM is crucial. Expect a BIG drop next weekend.
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Re: Watchmen Weekend Tracking

Post by Shrykespeare on Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:55 am

Weird...

According to Box Office Mojo, there were a lot of new movies that came out this week. Like, seven of them. Funny thing is, Phoebe in Wonderland and The Horsemen were not among them.

Does anyone know what happened? Could anyone find out? Both movies have respectable User Ratings, but what do you think? If a movie was supposed to come out but just... didn't, should players be allowed to replace it, or are they stuck with it? Same thing happened a few weeks ago with The Velveteen Rabbit.

Even funnier, BOM said The Horsemen was scheduled for 75 theaters. Wonder what happened.

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Re: Watchmen Weekend Tracking

Post by NSpan on Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:57 am

i think a movie has to have an actual release for it to be "locked" on your slate.. the exceptions to that on the old site were due to technical glitches (and the FM team taking their time in fixing 'em)

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Re: Watchmen Weekend Tracking

Post by silversurfer19 on Tue Mar 10, 2009 4:24 am

From Cinematical and ShowBIZ data, The Horsemen has been moved to next week (3/13), Lionsgate just forgot to tell anyone....

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Re: Watchmen Weekend Tracking

Post by Shrykespeare on Tue Mar 10, 2009 5:28 am

Well, THAT's good news. I'll assume everyone who picked it still wants it. The difference is, it has to go up against Sin Nombre, Buck Howard, Skills Like This and a few others.

If Phoebe in Wonderland doesn't materialize somewhere, I'll give the one or two people who took it the option of replacing it. Wish I could do the same with "12"...

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Re: Watchmen Weekend Tracking

Post by Buscemi on Tue Mar 10, 2009 7:21 am

The Horsemen did open on March 6th. It is currently running in a number of St. Louis theatres and you can buy tickets at theatres such as Wehrenberg's website.

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Re: Watchmen Weekend Tracking

Post by Donte77 on Tue Mar 10, 2009 9:52 pm

Shrykespeare wrote:Well, THAT's good news. I'll assume everyone who picked it still wants it. The difference is, it has to go up against Sin Nombre, Buck Howard, Skills Like This and a few others.

If Phoebe in Wonderland doesn't materialize somewhere, I'll give the one or two people who took it the option of replacing it. Wish I could do the same with "12"...

I will take that 12 replacement option. LOL Although the user rating is nice.
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Re: Watchmen Weekend Tracking

Post by J.I. on Wed Mar 11, 2009 2:01 am

Watchmen fell 10% worse on Monday than 300 did on its first Monday. pale
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