Surfer's Limited Release - Weekend 9/25 Capitalism, Coco Before Chanel, The Boys Are Back, I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell

Greetings, and welcome to the first of my proposed weekly Limited Release, my first ever column (some may say well overdue, well I know at least one member of the fantaverse thinks so…..) and hopefully many of you will find it worthy for second helpings.

As the summer blockbuster season seems to have well and truly disappeared, along with its parade of blockbusters, we now enter the autumn of film, where a more mature class of movie graces our presence and provides us with a wonderful array of style, genre and talent. The season is upon us where the Academy decides its probably a good time to start going to the movies (as we all know they must avoid the summer season every year- the annual Academy nominations prove that), and to be honest, some of the best films are released in this period. Yes, I hear some of you jeer that “some very good movies have already been released”, but it is this time of year where a little more space is provided for the so called ‘serious’ type of movie. Some of these movies will expand and become blockbusters over the coming months (Slumdog Millionaire and Juno are proof of this), but the majority of them will only ever become available to those who frequent the arthouse theatres. That’s right, us geeks.

And so, probably foolishly, I have taken it upon myself to tackle some of these releases, in the hope that I can provide some of you with a guiding hand in your future art house picks. This should hopefully be of help for both types of player – Box Office and Ultimate; box office players looking for a cheap breakout movie, and ultimate players in search of a movie that will spend weeks in the PTA top 5. Hopefully, as an avid visitor of my local arthouse movie theatre, and following many seconds of research, I can provide that aide.

Anyway, introductions aside, time to get on with the real reason the two of you out there are reading this column. Maybe it is fate that I was set to have my first column on this weekend, or maybe it was just the first available slot, but either way it is a rather busy week for the arthouse crowd. Probably the most recognisable movie to be released this weekend, and most likely to succeed, is the new documentary from Michael Moore.

In 2002, Michael Moore won an Academy Award for Best Documentary for Bowling For Columbine, while in 2004 Fahrenheit 9/11 took a harsh swipe a George W Bush. Most recently, in 2007 Moore turned his attentions to the health system with Sicko. All of these movies were very successful, Fahrenheit 9/11 reaching blockbuster status, and all of them having a fantastic opening per theatre average. Sicko opening in only 1 theatre amassed a colossal $68,969 in its first weekend, on way to a total haul of over $24m.

His latest movie, Capitalism: A Love Story, released on the 20th anniversary of his breaout movie Roger and Me, is again an investigation into a topic he has covered all through his career: the disastrous impact of corporate dominance on the everyday live of Americans, scratch that, world. Going bigger than ever before, Moore is determined to uncover what is the price America will pay for its love of capitalism. Gone is the innocence of love, replaced with the lies, betrayal and abuse that can infect any household. It feels like this may be the culmination of his work, 20 years in the making.

So, saying this, how will it perform. Well, undoubtedly it will storm its opening weekend, probably not to the extent Sicko did, as this movie is opening in an almighty 4 locations as compared to Sicko’s single location. But it will still be big. It’s second weekend will likely only be tested by More Than A Game (another documentary which I will cover in the future) and the Coen’s A Serious Man. I suspect it could quite possibly reach 10 PTA points in just 2 weeks, and probably bring in another two - five over the following weeks. Yes, I said it, I fully expect this movie to make close 15 PTA points, if not exceed it. If you want a PTA movie to anchor your September or October slates, this is it. At the moment its IMDB is not up to scratch with previous Moore efforts, however it’s 6.4 is only reflective of 300 votes. I would expect this to rise into the high sevens, and therefore a quality addition to your slate. It’s box office is fully dependent on how wide the movie goes. As I mentioned earlier, Fahrenheit broke blockbuster, but then Sicko only managed $25m. There is no mention of a platform release as of yet, so I guess we’ll have to wait and see. I see it getting closer to Sicko’s numbers then Fahrenheit’s though. So is $20m, 12-15 PTA, and IMDB of 7.5or above worth $10 Ultimate/ $5 Box Office? I think that is a rather simple answer.

Second up we have Coco Before Chanel, the latest showcase of the wonderfully talented and devastatingly beautiful Audrey Tautou. Predictably from its title, this is the story of legendary fashion designer Gabrielle ‘Coco’ Chanel’s dramatic rise to fame. Having watched this myself a month ago, I can tell you that the movie itself is average, good at best. However, Tautou’s performance is outstanding, and is a delight to watch. Knowing the Academy’s obsession with awarding nominations to actresses who playing real people, I fully expect Tautou to finally receive her first nomination for this. And my screening was packed, a full two weeks after its opening. I expect this to do well. It currently costs just $7 in Ultimate, and I fully expect it to bring back its worth (despite no knowledge of release locations as of yet), possibly with 6 or 7 PTA points. Its IMDB isn’t anything stellar, but won’t hurt your slate with 6.8 from more than 1400 votes. I doubt it will provide too much in terms of box office potential, and is probably not worth a stab in that format, but it could surprise me, especially if my predictions of Oscar attention comes into fruition.

Next we have The Boys Are Back, a new vehicle for Clive Owen. Directed by Scott Hicks of Shine fame, and to a lesser extent No Reservations, this looks like a solid drama centering on a sports writer who becomes a single parent of two under tragic circumstances. Hicks received an Academy nomination for Shine, and this, based on the acclaimed 2001 memoir of Simon Carr, I expect to do very well. It’s opening in just 6 locations with a platform release set, and I expect this to benefit it greatly, both in PTA terms and box office potential. I predict possibly 6 PTA and a decent box office closing in on $20m. And with an IMDB of currently 7.8 you can certainly do worse for your $5 (or even just $2 in BO).

Finally, my last movie this week is I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell, a new 'comedy' from Freestyle Releasing (which usually spells bomb – see Delgo, Bottle Shock, Noble Son, In The Name Of The King). Starring Matt Czuchry of Gilmore Girls fame (yes, you read that right), along with Traci Lords of Penthouse fame (and yes, you read that right too), this is the type of movie which is gonna bomb hard. Expect nothing, and certainly not worth even your $2 in either format.

Okay, that’s me for this week, my first week. Please don’t be too hard with your responses (if any) and hopefully I’ll be able to guide you in the coming weeks on a few other choices that will prise away a few extra dollars from your fantasy wallet (and maybe your real wallet if an independent cinema is outside of your grasp).

That’s all folks.

btw, Shryke, I don't appreciate you stealing my movies for your column [wink].

Actually, I remember that Bottle Shock did rather decent numbers given the cirumstances of the film. It went a year without a distributor before the director struck a distribution-only deal with Freestyle with the director handling almost everything else. The final result was over $4 million in limited release and some good PTA figures in the first two weeks of release.

But yeah, I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell is a flop. Especially since they are opening it regionally in the first week (with an October 9th wide expansion planned).

In the game, however, Bottle Shock never brought in any PTA, and its top per theatre average never broke much over $5000. Not particularly stellar in my opinion if you are looking to gain some points from it.

Bottle Shock was never in the game, Surfer. Mase and Austin Powers Girl hardly put in any limited release titles in that round.

silversurfer19 wrote:In the game, however, Bottle Shock never brought in any PTA, and its top per theatre average never broke much over $5000. Not particularly stellar in my opinion if you are looking to gain some points from it.

He got you on that one, Busc.

[sigh]. Suppose it had been in the game, suppose it was in a game which we had formatted. It didn't even break the top 10 of the PTA films at any point during its run. Even if it had been in the game its PTA score would have been the same - zero. If it was available it would have been a pointless pick, much like I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell will be.

I didn't realize that it opened in 48 theatres on the first weekend of release. I always thought that it opened in 21 theatres (never get your Wednesday and Friday counts mixed up if the film opens on Wednesday).

My mistake.

awesome column SS, we definitely need something like this, my PTA has been hurting since we left that other place.

silversurfer19 wrote:btw, Shryke, I don't appreciate you stealing my movies for your column [wink].

Oh, were they yours?


I haven't kept on what all the guest columnists are doing... should I stop doing the limited releases now, and just concentrate on the wide ones? I don't want to step on anyone's turf, now that said turf is being divided up so democratically.

I think so buddy. I'm quite happy to continue doing the limited releases, and it'll hopefully give you an extra few minutes not devoted to us!

undeadmonkey wrote:awesome column SS, we definitely need something like this, my PTA has been hurting since we left that other place.

Hurrah! My first vote of confidence. Hopefully I can help a little. Indie movies are a particular favourite of mine, and we in NZ do tend to get a lot of these movies before you guys do so hopefully I'll be able to give some insider's knowledge too. Or maybe I'll just waffle on for an hour or so and hope someone's interested....

Good stuff Surfer. As I prefer arthouse movies to the bigger blockbusters I have really missed Chien's columns and I was thrilled when you suggested doing this type of column. Rest assured I will be one of those 2 readers you mentioned; although I think you are seriously undervaluing yourself and will have no problem getting at least 5 regular readers each time.

I'm working out who those five regulars will be as we speak...

I took Coco in a bunch of leagues including 2 BO leagues where I had a little extra to spend and couldn't get a wide release with it. I think it's the best $2 (or under) BO pick, though I don't expect much from it.

Thanks for the column. Just for that, I'm taking the week off from mine... Actually I'm doing it for other reasons.

I certainly think Coco has potential to break out. La Vie En Rose proved how US audiences enjoy French movies (as have various others) and this is being released at a perfect time for it. The audience I saw it with was so busy, and everyone seemed to at least like the movie, even if it wasn't brilliant. If, and this is a big if, Audrey Tautou gets recognised for her role by the Academy then I can certainly see it performing well. And for its price its a steal.