SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 9/25 - Surrogates, Fame, Pandorum, Capitalism: A Love Story, et al.

We are on the doorstep of our SEVENTH cut in the Full-Year Super Leagues. Nine months ago, we started with around sixty stalwart competitors, and now we are down to just over twenty left. Two more brutal cuts to go, and what few remain will go for the gold. (And, I will remind you again, the Gold Medal Round for all leagues will start in only two weeks!)

It was good to see Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs get out to a fast start. Most of us expected it, and lo, it came true, the first post-summer flick to really take off. I’d wager that it will have very good legs, given that it’s pretty much the only pure kids’ movie for another four weeks. Everything else, however, pretty much failed to impress, which means that the door is wide open for the three wide-release films opening this Friday, on September 25th.

Is there any more familiar role for Bruce Willis than as a cop? If I’m counting correctly he’s played a member of law enforcement no fewer than twelve times in his career (four times as John McClane in the Die Hard series). Well, it would appear that Surrogates will be lucky thirteen for the 54-year-old actor, but with a twist; this time he’s playing a cop in the FUTURE… (I can hear him stretching himself already, grin.)

Based on the 2005-06 comic book series of the same name, Surrogates is set in the not-too-distant future, where human society has evolved to the point where rather than go out into the real world, they prefer instead to stay within the comfort of their own homes, plugging themselves into machines that connect them to automatons (who are better-looking versions of themselves) out into the world for them. End result? They are safe, free from fear, pain and crime. But such an ideal society would not make for a good movie unless it was disrupted in some way, would it?

When the unthinkable happens – two operators die while connected to their “surrogates” – FBI agent Greer (Willis) is called to investigate the homicide, the first ones in fifteen years. The case gets more complicated, however, when Greer is forced to leave his own home for the first time in almost as many years, along with his partner (Radha Mitchell). Is the murder a fluke, or a hidden force hell-bent on ending humanity’s dependence of machines? Rosamund Pike, Ving Rhames, and James Cromwell co-star.

About the only red flag this film sends up is the fact that it was directed by Jonathan Mostow, who many credit for nearly ending the beloved Terminator franchise with that series’ woeful third installment, Rise of the Machines. However McG’s underwhelming Terminator: Salvation seems to have let Mostow off the hook a little. One can only hope that the very Philip K. Dick-looking Surrogates is as exciting and intriguing a film as the trailers would have us believe.

Action stars come and go, but Bruce Willis just goes merrily on, doesn’t he? With nine blockbusters under his belt, Surrogates many not have quite the juice to be his tenth, but I think it will do quite well. It’s a decent weekend, the same weekend that Eagle Eye prospered on last year, and I think it is a very good pick for its price ($14 Ultimate, $16 Box Office). At least ten Top 5 points seem likely, along with five PTA points, a rating in the low 7’s and around $70 million. If you missed Cloudy, grab this one.

“I’m gonna live forever, I’m gonna learn how to fly!” Irene Cara sang those words in 1980, when the original version of Fame came out. The film, which followed a group of students at the New York High School of the Performing Arts and featured many musical song-and-dance numbers, became a modest hit at the box office. It also spawned a Broadway musical of the same name, not to mention a TV series that ran for five years on NBC. And now, in 2009, a remake is ready to “fly” into theaters.

Given how well musicals have done in the last few years (Hairspray, Mamma Mia!), I am loathe to underestimate this film’s chances, given that the demographic for this film, teenagers and aficionados of musicals, is very large. However, I am just not getting the same vibe off of this one as I have for the two I just mentioned. Additionally, Hairspray and Mamma Mia! had two things that Fame does not have – a terrific summer release date and a stellar cast.

That’s right, no John Travolta, no Meryl Streep. The only names I recognize are fairly low on the cast list, including Debbie Allen, Charles S. Dutton, Megan Mullaly, Kelsey Grammer and Bebe Neuwirth. (Hmm… Frasier and Lilith, together again!) Plus, I haven’t seen a tremendous amount of advertising for this version, and I’m not sure it’ll make quite the splash that previous musicals have. MGM is putting it in over 3,000 theaters, but I can’t see it placing any higher than #3 on its OW. I predict $13 million in its first three days, on its way to four Top 5, no PTA, a middling User Rating and barely $35 million. For $12 in Ultimate ($13 in Box Office), I’d look for greener pastures elsewhere.

I’m not a big horror fan, mostly because most of the films that come out under that umbrella don’t look remotely scary, or even that good. Most end up being funny (without trying to be), and you just have to laugh at how absurd it all is. What I do enjoy, however, is a tense thriller where much is unknown, and the threat of danger or annihilation seeps in like a toxic gas, culminating in a confrontation that is both gut-churning and entertaining. Pandorum looks like just such a story.

Sci-fi/horror has produced more than its share of memorable films: Alien, Event Horizon and Sunshine come to mind almost immediately. But while those films started off almost normally, this one does not: two astronauts (Dennis Quaid and Ben Foster) wake aboard a spaceship with no memory of who they are or what their mission is. As they explore their ship, they encounter several others, who have learned that something terrible has occurred, something that may threaten the survival of the entire human race. You might be interested to know that Paul W.S. Anderson (who directed the Resident Evil series) is listed as a co-producer.

A couple of weeks ago, I would have written this one off, but I have seen a ton of commercials for Pandorum, and even with a theater count of 2,400… well, I still think it won’t do that well. Though it looks more interesting than every horror movie that has come out in the last month, the R rating and the sci-fi element will probably keep most at bay. It’s only $6 in Ultimate ($7 in Box Office), but for that you’ll get only a couple of Top 5 points, no PTA and perhaps $22 million. I’ll see it, but I’m not picking it.

I’m also not a fan of documentaries, but occasionally one or two pop up that piques my interest. And when a documentary comes along with Michael Moore’s name attached to it, it usually falls into that one or two. The controversial filmmaker, whose past works include Fahrenheit 9/11and Sicko, now takes on the topic of the current economic crisis – ironically, on the 20-year anniversary of his groundbreaking film Roger & Me – with Capitalism: A Love Story.

Whether you agree with Moore’s politics or not, none can dispute his flair or showmanship. And tackling the government’s recent slew of corporate bailouts? Well, you pretty much saw it coming, didn’t you? If you’ve seen the (hysterical) trailer, you’ve got to admire the balls it takes to show up at AIG’s corporate headquarters and asking to make a citizen’s arrest of the Board of Directors!

I want to see this film, and not just because it’s Moore. Not just because it’s about the economy. No, because it’s entertaining. Even though the points Moore tends to drive home are uniformly unilateral, the way he does it is just so funny and heart-warming that you can’t help but love the guy. But don’t just take my word for it: its current RT score of 100% Fresh should be enough.

Capitalism is scheduled for release on only four screens this weekend, and if it doesn’t take the PTA crown by a wide margin, I’ll be very surprised. Sicko was able to earn 10 PTA points two years ago, and I see no reason why this one should do less. It will be expanding to “theaters everywhere” on October 2nd, but take that with a grain of salt – “everywhere” probably means a count of barely over 1,000 (1,117 was the widest Sicko ever got), so if you’re looking to Capitalism for Top 5 points, you’ll probably be disappointed.

Even so, $10 in the Ultimate leagues seems like a steal for this title. And though it probably won’t pull in more than $30 million total, for $5 in Box Office, it may be worth taking a gamble on Capitalism: A Love Story. After all, who in this country hasn’t felt screwed over by the current economic draught? (Just be warned, if you plan on taking this film… it’s actually coming out on WEDNESDAY the 23rd, not Friday.)

And now, a bit about the four limited-release films scheduled for release this week:

Coco Before Chanel ($7 Ult, $3 BO) – This film, a biopic about the pioneering French fashion designer Coco Chanel, is pretty much the only one with a chance of beating Michael Moore out of that #1 PTA spot. Directed by Anne Fontaine (The Girl From Monaco), Coco is scheduled for a limited number of screens in New York and Los Angeles only. Audrey Tautou (Da Vinci Code) stars as Chanel, who, in the early part of the 20th century, defied convention of what the “modern woman” was supposed to look like – no more corsets, no more feathery hats, no more being second-class citizens - and built an empire that still bears her name today.

I daresay that if a documentary about Vogue magazine’s editor-in-chief Anna Wintour can explode for nine PTA points, then a biopic about one of Time Magazine’s “Most Influential People of the 20th Century” should be good for at least five. Early October is not exactly rife with arthouse winners, so Coco could very well end up in the PTA Top 5 for several weeks (especially after Capitalism goes wide). Early reviews have been mostly positive (68% Fresh on RT), and it’s current User Rating is decent (6.8/1361) and isn’t likely to change much, so I say: go for it!

The Boys are Back ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – No, this isn’t a rockumentary about Thin Lizzy (pity), but “a deeply moving, wryly confessional tale of fatherhood, that intimately evokes both the fragility and wonders of family life”. It too has a respectable RT score (86% Fresh on 6/7 positive reviews), and is slated for six screens starting on Friday. Based on a true story, Boys stars British tough guy Clive Owen plays Joe Warr, a wisecracking sportswriter who becomes a single parent after his wife’s tragic death. Uniting himself, his six-year-old son and a teenage son from a previous marriage, Joe must find a way to cope with his situation. This film was directed by Scott Hicks (Shine).

An entrant into numerous film festivals (including London and Toronto) this seems like a good solid eighth pick for your slate. It’s got some stiff competition this week, but even a couple of PTA points may make it worthy of inclusion.

I Hope They Serve Beer in Hell ($2 Ult, $2 BO) – I wasn’t sure if this film would be released in late September or mid-October, but since Box Office Mojo has it coming out on 115 screens this Friday, I’ll include it now. Based on the Tucker Max book, Beer in Hell looks very much like The Hangover, minus the humor and star appeal, of course. (Check out the trailer and tell me I’m wrong.)

Juvenile “carnal pleasure” movies tend to end up on the cinematic scrap-heap, and if this one gets any PTA points at all, I will be amazed. When Traci Lords and Keri Lynn Pratt are the most famous actors in the cast, it’s time to pass.


My predictions for the weekend of September 25-27, 2009:

1. Surrogates - $26 million
2. Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs - $18 million
3. Fame - $13 million
4. Pandorum - $9 million
5. The Informant! - $6 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, I’ll break in the month of October with three films that moved into the space vacated when Shutter Island migrated to spring, including: Zombieland, a horror/comedy starring Woody Harrelson; Whip It, a roller-derby comedy starring Ellen Page and Drew Barrymore (making her big-screen directorial debut); The Invention of Lying, a comedy starring Ricky Gervais and Jennifer Garner; not to mention A Serious Man, the latest dark comedy from the Oscar-winning Cohen Brothers; and More Than a Game, a sports documentary about the early days of basketball phenom Lebron James.

Later!

Here are this weekend's trailers:

My favorite rockumentary is still This Is Spinal Tap.

In other news, the 115 theatre release of I Hope They Serve Beer In Hell is mostly in the Chicago market. So if you are considering this for PTA points, don't.

Meanwhile, Tucker Max and Freestyle are planning to expand to 300 theatres on October 2nd and 2,000 theatres on October 16th. I believe that is a little too optimistic.

Edit: also, a wide release is planned for Paranormal Activity in October. It will depend on if audience word of mouth is good or not (it should be, the IMDb rating is currently 8.9 with nearly 200 votes).

The trailer for Paranormal Activity is awful, surprised all the people saying it's supposed to be one of the scariest movies of all time.

I just don't see The Surrogates opening over $20M, advertising really isn't there for it. But then again, it is with robots, set in the future, and stars Bruce Willis.

I dont see surrogates opening over $20M either, every time i see the trailer it just gives me this feeling of 'wait, havent i seen this before', plus Bruce Willis is not that big of a draw anymore,

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:The trailer for Paranormal Activity is awful, surprised all the people saying it's supposed to be one of the scariest movies of all time.

It's better than the awful Cloverfield teaser that everyone made a big deal out of.

Capitalism a love story doesn't look like great value to me. It's opening to 4 theatres, and it'll nab 5 PTA points easy, but then it's planning to expand next week to about 1000, meaning it won't pick up and PTA or T5.

$10 or $11 for a film that'll get you 5 PTA points, no Top 5, a 7-ish score and about 15mil MAX (seriously, hasn't the trends shown that audiences are more interested in "entertainment" than anything that looks into the misery of our economic climate?)

undeadmonkey wrote: ... plus Bruce Willis is not that big of a draw anymore,

I was suprised to see just how little of a draw he's become but it's hard to argue with Box office Mojo.

Unless the last Die Hard film gives him a little momentum. I think 'Surrogates' is one I'll stay away from.

Any tracking yet for this weekend?

From Lee's Movie Info:

1 Surrogates $22.658 NEW
2 Chance of Meatballs $18.246 -40%
3 Fame $14.183 NEW
4 Pandorum $5.941 NEW
5 The Informant! $5.762 -45%
6 I Can Do Bad... $4.848 -51%
7 Love Happens $4.555 -43%
8 9 $3.296 -41%
9 Jennifer's Body $2.836 -59%
10 Inglourious Basterds $2.188 -43%

Looks about right though I expect a little more on Pandorum and a little less on Jennifer's Body (I expect a 65-75% second week drop).

Buscemi, what are you going to do when you don't have Jennifer's Body to bash any more? I pity the next film that becomes the next target of your vociferious hatred...

I think I will embark on some worthwhile journeys. Like trying to figure why I keep getting sick and why I hate everyone in my math class so much.

As for Jennifer's Body, let's just say that it is the beginning of the end for both Megan Fox and Diablo Cody. Expect Diablo Cody's next screenplay to remain unmade and expect Warner Bros. to retool Jonah Hex's marketing campaign to make Megan Fox less prominent (especially since the film also stars Josh Brolin, John Malkovich, Michael Shannon, Will Arnett and Michael Fassbender).

You really think an Academy Award winner/writer of one of the most out of nowhere box office grossers in recent memory isn't going to get a second chance?

Writers aren't in the same class as directors on the food chain. If you fall under the sophomore jinx or write a bad script for a movie that no one sees, then you're out.

Even if you win an Academy Award.

Buscemi wrote:... expect Warner Bros. to retool Jonah Hex's marketing campaign to make Megan Fox less prominent (especially since the film also stars Josh Brolin, John Malkovich, Michael Shannon, Will Arnett and Michael Fassbender).

Despite Jenifer's Body and my own opinion the talent of those actors mentioned above, I'm afraid Megan Fox is still much more recognisable and marketable than most of those mentioned. I'm sure she will get plenty of screen time in the trailers.

She's much more recognizable and marketable than ALL of those mentioned to the crowd that the film is/should be marketed to.

Let's take a look at that:

-Josh Brolin is a recent Academy Award nominee and has been in some recognizable projects lately (No Country For Old Men, Grindhouse/Planet Terror, American Gangster, W., Milk and the upcoming Wall Street 2)
-John Malkovich is still a well-respected actor in a lot of diverse projects. Basically Gary Oldman but with more respect.
-Michael Shannon is another recent Academy Award nominee who is starting break into mainstream projects.
-Will Arnett is most familiar for his comedy projects and working with other familiar comedy actors (such as Will Ferrell and Andy Samberg).
-Michael Fassbender was in Inglourious Basterds and may soon emerge as another great import from the UK. His performance in Hunger was also critically acclaimed.

Meanwhile you've got Megan Fox, a talentless attention whore who spends more time in the tabloids getting into trouble than improving her craft. Katharine Hepburn, she is not.

To me, the film reads more as a Western for the older audience with some teen appeal rather than a teen oriented action film with some adult appeal. This is despite the fact that it is directed by a cartoonist and written by Neveldine/Taylor.

Buscemi wrote:
Meanwhile you've got Megan Fox, a talentless attention whore who spends more time in the tabloids getting into trouble than improving her craft. Katharine Hepburn, she is not.

To me, the film reads more as a Western for the older audience with some teen appeal rather than a teen oriented action film with some adult appeal. This is despite the fact that it is directed by a cartoonist and written by Neveldine/Taylor.

And unfortunately that seems to be enough for the movie going public as a whole. Remember this is going ot open pretty wide, and that means it's gotta draw in the teen market as its biggest audience. I'm afraid that means Fox will be well advertised. I do agree that most of the other actors are becoming more well known, but in the movie making industrry money is important and Fox will beused as an advertisement for the movie.

Also, Is John Malkovich a more respected Gary Oldman? Where did you get this from? I find Oldman far more respected than Malkovich, who has a tendency to overact a little. They have both been in their fair share of turkeys, but i think you will find Oldman to be generally more respected as an actor than Malkovich.

John Malkovich doesn't seem to slum it as often as Gary Oldman. Lately, Gary Oldman has made a profession out of slumming it.

Also, no one plays an egotistical prick like Malkovich does.

I would hardly call Batman, Harry Potter and A Christmas Carol slumming it. I only really see The Unborn as one of his recent mediocre movies, besides providing voice duties for animations.

Malkovich, meanwhile has been in The Mutant Chronicles, Eragon and Johnny English. I think they both do their fair share of poor movies, as all actors do.

Anyway, getting back on topic, I doubt any of those actors, despite their pedigree, will have a significant effect on whether someone will watch a movie they are in. Maybe a small select audience as with all actors, but Fox definitely is more recognisable and certainly a more marketable asset than the above list.

You are clearly glossing over the fact that she can't sell a movie not called Transformers.

Here are the numbers of her non-Transformers films (Confessions Of A Teenage Drama Queen is being included anyway because it was listed):

Jennifer's Body $7,950,902
How to Lose Friends and Alienate People $2,778,752
Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen $29,331,068

The combined gross of these films is less than the opening weekend of the first Transformers. And when you take out Confessions Of A Teenage Drama Queen (since it was a bit part), they don't match the opening day numbers of Transformers.

I rest my case.

I'm not glossing over what she has been in previously beyond Transformers, I know she isn't a massive draw card, and neither are those other names mentioned. However, if you seriously believe she will not have a pivotal role in the trailer you are clearly misguided. She is the lead female of the movie, and for that reason alone she will get plenty of airtime in the trailer. Second that with the fact she is in every magazine and MTV show going. They will promote her being in the movie, even just to bring in the horny kids. She won't be promoted as the star (obviously, but as the eye candy of the movie - just as she is in Transformers). I think an audience generally knows a turkey when it sees one, and I'm sure a blockbuster summer movie like Jonah Hex will not be a turkey, and the audience will be seeing it no matter who is in it. The addition of Fox is just a little bit extra help. It won't drive up ticket sales, but it will certainly help. And if anything it will get people watching the trailer and interested in the movie if they had no prior knowledge. I highly doubt the likes of Malkovich and Shannon can do that.

Take a look at many of the Western movie trailers over the years. They don't promote them as eye candy. They are usually promoted as straight-up guy movies. The buddy elements, the violence, the life of being a good ol' boy. If there is a girl, then she usually takes a back seat to the machismo.

I think you are forgetting this is a comic book movie (despite its genre) and is being released in the height of summer. It is Warner Bros.' big June movie and will be promoted out of the ass. This is not going to be promoted as a typical western, it would bomb. In the movie she probably will take a back seat and be little more than a cameo. But you can bet your life on it she will be well promoted in the trailers in order to boost revenue that little bit more.