Surfer's Limited Release - Weekend 10/02 A Serious Man, More Than A Game

Wow, they let me come back for a second week? Either I’m an amazing writer with a keen knowledge for independent releases, or there was a gap which needed filling. I trust it was the former [grin].

Anyway, here I am again to provide a useful source of knowledge (or maybe cause a little misdirection) in the world of indie movies. Whether you take this advice is up to you, but hopefully it can at least divert your mindset for a second. So, onto this week’s movies.

This week sees the release of The Coen brother’s fifteenth movie. Yes indeedy, they have been around for a long time. I am a self confessed lover of all things Coen, be it the madcap comedy of Crimewave, The Big Lebowski and (to a lesser extent) Burn After Reading, or their brutal noirs such as Blood Simple, Miller’s Crossing, Fargo or No Country For Old Men. Whatever the Coen’s release, you can guarantee it won’t be a boring watch. And so, following up from their smashes of last year is their latest movie, the black comedy A Serious Man – opening limited initially before potentially expanding later in the month. The movie follows Larry Gopnik, a Midwestern professor who watches his life unravel when his wife prepares to leave him because his inept brother won't move out of the house. It will be interesting to see how this pan’s out, as the Coen’s have not opened this limited since O Brother, Where Art Thou, when they opened on 5 locations and drawing in almost $40,000 PTA before expanding and finishing with $45m. Their most recent limited release was No Country For Old Men, opening in 28 locations at $43,000 PTA and culminating with $74m and a couple of Oscars.

So taking this analysis I’d say it’s a safe bet to expect somewhere around the $40,000 PTA mark for A Serious Man, and I trust Focus to provide a good platform release (I always have liked Focus, they seem to be one of those distributors you can rely on) and a total taking of around $40m. It will most certainly win its opening weekend PTA battle, especially so now that Capitalism has expanded to 1000 locations, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it perform well again next weekend despite the wide release of Couples Retreat and a whole host on new limited releases (6 in all! – its gonna be a full column next week). In all I’d probably guess at a total PTA closing in on 10-12 depending on how wide it eventually goes, and maybe a handful of top 5’s. So is say, 5 top 5’s, 10 PTA, a Box Office of $40m and an IMDB of around 8 (it currently sits at 9.1 with 263 votes) worth your $11 in Ultimate and $6 in Box Office? I would say most certainly, yes. But then it’s not up to me, is it?

The only other new limited release this weekend is the documentary More Than A Game – following Le Bron James’ journey to the big time in the NBA. Now I can’t profess to be a keen follower of basketball, indeed I know nothing more than Magic Johnson from a while back and the LA Lakers (maybe I should spend some time browsing the sports threads…). The movie is directed by newcomer Kristopher Belman and is released through Lionsgate. It’s getting a decent platform release from its initial 14 locations and so I believe it will probably have an impact on the PTA charts for a number of weeks. In 1994 the documentary Hoop Dreams was released, taking in a PTA of just over $6000 in 3 locations. I imagine this will probably perform something similar and that should be enough for a couple of PTA points in its first weekend, and then maybe following a steady expansion a few million in BO too. For $4 in Ultimate I’d say it’s worth a stab if you need to fill up your slate, but probably not worth it in BO despite only costing $3. For that price I’d want to be bringing it close to $15m and I certainly don’t see that happening. My predictions for More Than A Game: 4PTA, 0 Top 5, $7m BO and an IMDB of about 7.

Well, that’s me for this week, hopefully I’ve helped a little with your pondering, or at least kept you off the porn for a couple of minutes. I’ll be back next week to preview a host of new limited releases including Bronson, The Damned United, An Education, From Mexico With Love and Bad Hair. I’d better start studying….

Don't forget Trucker!

What? More!! What have I got myself in for? Where is it? it's not on BOM.

Trucker opens on October 9th, I think.

Meanwhile, here are a few notes on the films:

-Unlike most Coen Brothers films, A Serious Man has no stars. In fact, the Coen Brothers cast unknowns in nearly all of the roles (the exceptions probably being television veterans Richard Kind and Adam Arkin). Though it should do well in limited release, I think the ceiling for the film is $10 million and about 500 theatres.

-Also, Hoop Dreams happened to be a three hour film (so the film only got three shows a day per theatre) that opened in 1994 (when the average New York ticket price was about $8.00). More Than A Game is half that length and will open in areas where ticket prices are about $14.00. Not the best comparison, Surfer.

Buscemi wrote:Trucker opens on October 9th, I think.

Meanwhile, here are a few notes on the films:

-Unlike most Coen Brothers films, A Serious Man has no stars. In fact, the Coen Brothers cast unknowns in nearly all of the roles (the exceptions probably being television veterans Richard Kind and Adam Arkin). Though it should do well in limited release, I think the ceiling for the film is $10 million and about 500 theatres.

-Also, Hoop Dreams happened to be a three hour film (so the film only got three shows a day per theatre) that opened in 1994 (when the average New York ticket price was about $8.00). More Than A Game is half that length and will open in areas where ticket prices are about $14.00. Not the best comparison, Surfer.

Firstly, I think Shryke was indicating that Trucker opens on the 9th also, just surprised there is nothing on BOM.

Secondly, I honestly believe that following their Oscar win, the Coen's do not require stars for their movies. If someone says" The new Coen movie" you know what to expect. I don't think the general public will be too bothered there are no stars. They just go to see The Coen's latest release.

Lastly, As I mentioned, I know very little about basketball, and even less about sports dramas. Hoop Dreams was just a little bit of research into the prospects of basketball documentaries. Maybe it is a little dated, but I still feel it won't perform so far above those numbers.

No Country For Old Men wasn't exactly star driven. It had Woody Harrelson in a pretty small role and the older brother from the Goonies. It wasn't a movie that sold based on star power. The Coens just produce almost guaranteed quality.

Exactly, The Coen movies are sold on the quality they have proved from their previous movies. No need for star power.

You are clearly forgetting Tommy Lee Jones, Geez. And Javier Bardem was well-established as a draw for the arthouse crowd by then.

You are correct. Tommy Lee Jones plays such a small role that I forgot him

I would consider TLJ a co-star. He's actually the first one listed in the credits and I believe I remember them using his name to promote the film. It was before I started playing here, though, so I could be wrong...

I checked the trailer and not at any point does it list a star cast member. It mentions that it is a Coen Brothers movie adapted from Cormac McCarthy's novel, but that is it. And to be honest, when you go to see a Coen movie, that's is all that matters. In fact, I would go some way to say that the star power ego's on the set may even hinder a Coen movie (I'm looking at you Hanks and Pitt). Give me Turturro and Goodman over the A listers anyday.

I don't know how Clooney did on the set, but Oh, Brother is one of the few of his I like.

I have found Clooney to be more of a Coen brothers regular, so don't class him in the same bracket as Hanks and Pitt. He has shown on numerous occasions (bar Intolerable Cruelty) that he can work well with the Coens and produce quality performances.

I LOVE Intolerable Cruelty...But again, while I'm excited for A Serious Man I don't really see the mainstream audience flocking to it, Coens or not. The trailer is too cryptic, and the overall poor reception of Burn After Reading and the lack of stars will ultimately hurt it. Even with the diehards, I see a ceiling of about $25mil.

I'm not expecting money from A Serious Man, the PTA and IMDB score will be worth the price.

Most certainly Geez. I find that if a movie earns in PTA score what it's cost in Ultimate is, then it is definitely value for money. And I am pretty confident it will achieve the 11 PTA points to satisfy this. However, I can't believe that with the successes of the last couple of years that the movie won't go wide enough to make a dent in BO. Despite Burn After Readings largely mediocre reviews, it made enough money to warrant a large expansion and if there is enough promotion, I am fairly certain it will make at least $35m, maybe $40m. That would be a little less than half of Burn After Reading and No Country.