SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 9/18 - Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs, Jennifer's Body, The Informant!, Love Happens

Note to all Super League players: we are coming up on the beginning of the October season, which, in case you didn’t know, is the FINAL ROUND in the Super Leagues. Assuming you survive the July, August and September cuts, this next round is the one that you HAVE to win. This is the round that determines a champion. So, when picking lineups, do so carefully. One bad pick could very well cost you the title. (And for those of you on the pricing committee, get your pricing schemes in to me ASAP!)

After a typically terrible start, September picked up a little bit this past weekend with the terrific start gotten off to by Tyler Perry’s latest dramedy, I Can Do Bad All By Myself (which is also becoming typical; mark your calendars – 4/2/10 – for TP’s next outing, Why Did I Get Married Too). Also, kudos to 9 for getting off to a fairly decent start despite the paltry number of screens showing it. Will this box office uptick continue, through September and into October? I am almost sure of it.

The weekend of September 18th brings four brand new titles to the fore, and though they are all comedies (or have comedic elements), they couldn’t be more different. They represent four of the biggest studios in the game today (Sony/Columbia, Warner Bros., Fox and Universal), and look for all of them to open in at least 2,000 theaters.

Animated films are an interesting study. What does it take for an animated film to find success? Well, a major studio (DreamWorks, Pixar, Disney) helps. A great ad campaign? That’s a foregone conclusion. Widespread appeal to all age groups? Definitely. But something that is also as important but often gets overlooked? The rating. Despite the advancements of animation technology in the last three decades, many moviegoers still hold the opinion that animated movies are mostly for kids, and if a cartoon movie comes out with a rating of PG-13, it probably won’t entice parents to bring their children in to see it as much as if it had a PG (or G) rating.

9 had a PG-13 rating, and as such, probably won’t do more than $40 million. Most Fantaversians are expecting much, much more out of Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs, which is brought to us by Sony Pictures Animation, who are looking for their first blockbuster hit (after falling short with Monster House, Open Season and Surf’s Up). And, to be honest, the premise for this film has hooked me ever since I saw the first trailer.

Based on the 1978 children’s book by Judi and Ron Barrett, the Cloudy movie centers around the character of Flint Lockwood (Bill Hader), an inventor whose past creations have… well, not turned out so well. But when his hometown of Swallow Falls is beset by a drastic food shortage, he attempts, undaunted, to create a machine that will end the problem. And if you’ve seen the trailer, you’ll know how it works: food begins falling from the sky. Literally. Hamburgers, steak, donuts, every kind of foodstuff you can imagine. Unfortunately, the machine soon begins to develop a mind of its own, and Flint must find a way to stop his creation before it can do more harm than good.

Voice casts tend not to matter much in movies aimed at kids, who usually couldn’t care one way or the other, but this one is actually pretty good: Anna Faris, James Caan, Andy Samberg, Bruce Campbell, Bobb’e Thompson, Benjamin Bratt, Neil Patrick Harris, Will Forte, Lauren Graham, Al Roker, and… Mr. T?! Shazam!! I pity da fool who don’t like this movie… Seriously, though, the concept for this film just looks so darn wacky, it’s bound to be entertaining. (Plus, it has a talking monkey! How cool is that??) And judging from the fact that nearly 60% of the Fantaverse has put this film on its slates for August or September, I’m not alone in that mindset.

Cloudy is going to be shown in well over 3,000 theaters, including quite a few 3-D screens, which will only help to boost its bottom line. I think an OW of $30 million is quite possible, and given that there are no pure kids’ movies coming out until Astro Boy on October 23, I also think it will have great legs. It might even reach that magic nine-digit plateau. I predict it will pull in eleven Top 5 and four PTA. The User Rating probably won’t be that great, like between 5 and 6, but that’s a small price to pay for such great numbers. For $19, it’s definitely worth it. There aren’t many choices of this quality until early November, so if you haven’t already done so, snap this one up!

Up next we have a film that appears to have a lot going for it: an Oscar-winning screenwriter (Diablo Cody, who penned the script for Juno), a hot young star (Megan Fox, coming off her role in the $400 million summer smash Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen), and a well-placed release date. Unfortunately, Jennifer’s Body looks to me like a sheep in wolf’s clothing.

Fox (heh) Atomic Studios’ latest seems primed to bring in the teen horror crowd, given that it stars a major hottie – well, two, if you count Mamma Mia's Amanda Seyfried, though she’s hardly playing one this time – who plays the “popular girl” at a high-school filled with girls who want to be her friend and boys (in their 20’s, of course) who want to get in her pants. What they don’t know, however, is that when Jennifer becomes the “sacrifice” held by the leader of a devil-worshipping rock band (Adam Brody), she becomes possessed by a demon, who delights in seducing boys… right before feeding on them. Ouch. I hear the soundtrack is cool, though.

Body, which is helmed by director Karyn Kusama (Aeon Flux), has gotten – big surprise – mostly negative reviews despite the pedigree of Diablo Cody. All critics seem to agree that while Jennifer’s Body is not a horrible film, it’s not really good either, calling it “unoriginal”, “mostly unscary” and “more barking than biting”. Despite its 2,500 theaters, I look for Jennifer’s Body to open with around $8 million, which may just barely crack the Top 5, and then drop like a stone. (Buscemi will be hosting a kegger to celebrate its demise, I’m sure.) For $9 in Ultimate leagues ($10 in Box Office), you can do way better than this.

Everyone knows who Steven Soderbergh is: the man who won the Oscar for Best Director for Traffic, led Julia Roberts to her Best Actress win in Erin Brockovich, and helmed the cool Ocean’s Integers series. Well, now he’s back, with a dark comedy about corporate greed, price fixing, wiretapping and embezzlement. It’s called The Informant!, and believe it or not, it is based on a true story, written by former New York Times journalist Kurt Eichenwald and brought to the big screen by Warner Bros.

In this film, which takes place in the early 90’s, FBI agent Brian Shepard (Scott Bakula) approaches Mark Whitacre (Matt Damon), an executive for a company called Archer Daniels Midland, and asks him to become a whistleblower on his co-workers, as they are trying to take the company down for international price-fixing. Now, judging from Damon’s outlandish behavior in the trailer, one might assume that he’s playing Whitacre as a total moron, given that his behavior seems to be not only reckless but ultimately self-defeating. But the truth is, Whitacre is actually bipolar, and his character is, to-date, the highest-ranked exec to every turn informant in U.S. history.

Emmanuel Levy has a lot of praise for this film. He says, basically, that Soderbergh’s “ironic-comedic approach” is the right one, and The Informant! “walks a fine line between dark satire and outrageous farce.” And he also says that though it’s not without its flaws, it is a good solid film. But will it appeal to the masses? Well, Damon and Soderbergh have their fans, that’s for sure, and I’m betting that even the “R” rating won’t deter them. It will, however, deter huge numbers.

I’ll wager that The Informant! will pull $12 million in its first three days, which means it’ll probably finish the weekend at #3, behind Cloudy and I Can Do Bad but ahead of Jennifer’s Body and Love Happens (which I’ll get to in a moment). I wouldn’t recommend spending $12 in Ultimate ($10 in Box Office) on a film that will only get your four Top 5, no PTA, and only $35 million. Astro Boy and Planet 51 seem like safer bets for the same amount of money. Yes, it’s got a great IMDb score already (8.2) but that’s not enough to take it.

Love Happens is the only film that Universal has coming out in September. So why is it only getting around 2,000 theaters? Could it be that despite his pivotal role in The Dark Knight, Aaron Eckhart still hasn’t developed a significant fan base? Could it be that Jennifer Aniston’s career really hasn’t progressed much since Friends went off the air and her split from Brad Pitt? Well, both stars are now in their early 40’s, but I see no reason why this film can’t be a hit. Sandra Bullock proved she can still lead a romantic comedy in The Proposal this summer, and I look for Hugh Grant and Sarah Jessica Parker to score big this winter with Did You Hear About the Morgans?

In this film, Eckhart plays Burke Ryan, a widower who copes with the death of his wife by writing a self-help book about dealing with grief. It becomes a great success, and Ryan becomes a much-sought-after guru, who tours the country doing seminars and interviews. But during a fateful trip to Seattle, he meets – and falls for – a photographer named Eloise (Aniston), only to learn that the grief of his wife’s passing never really went away. (Making him “sleepless”?) Dan Fogler and the ageless Martin Sheen co-star.

It looks like a great date movie. And it will probably get a very respectable User Rating. And it has a very cheap price tag ($6 in Ultimate, $7 in Box Office). So though it probably won’t get more than three Top 5 points, no PTA, or $30 million, I give it a marginal recommendation. It’s the only rom-com for four weeks, and if reviews are good, it might hold up better than the last two films I mentioned. I predict $10 million in its first three days, $27 million overall, which makes it a better Box Office pick than Ultimate.

And now, a little bit about this week’s two (three?) limited-release pictures:

The Burning Plain ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – Directed by Guillermo Arriaga (who penned the script for 21 Grams and Babel), Plain is a two-tiered, non-linear story starring Oscar-winning actresses Charlize Theron and Kim Basinger. In one segment, which takes place in Mexico, we meet Gina (Basinger) who has an affair with a local man, much to the chagrin of her teenage daughter Mariana (Jennifer Lawrence); in the second, which takes place more than ten years later, Mariana (Theron), who now goes by the name of Sylvia is still dealing with the aftermath of that affair while working in a high-end Portland restaurant.

Though it was an entrant in both the Toronto and Venice Film Festivals, reviews have been decidedly mixed (7 good, 9 bad at RT). It has a decent Rating (6.9/2100) that isn’t likely to change much. Whether it picks up any PTA this weekend will all depend on theater count, so pay close attention. I personally think Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs will take that crown, but you just never know.

Paris ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – This film, by renowned French director Cedric Klapisch, tells the story of Pierre (Romain Duris) a professional dancer who is suffering from a debilitating heart disease. While awaiting a possible life-saving transplant, he spends his days on his balcony, observing all of the people around him. And little by little, the ordinary folk of Paris become unique and special to him. Oscar-winning actress Juliette Binoche co-stars.

French movies, in my experience with this game, tend to hit more often than they miss. (I wish Chien was around to tell me this film’s any good!) They tend to be big arthouse hits more often than not, which means for $3, you may find a good source of PTA points. It, too, has a decent User Rating (6.9/2333), so it won’t hurt you in that category either. Just beware: Lorna’s Silence was also just as acclaimed last month, and it walked away with none.

Splice ($3 Ult, $2 BO) – people have been telling me over and over that this film will NOT be coming out this weekend, that it has been bumped to an unspecified date in 2010. However, several sources still have it listed as coming out, so I’d better at least hedge my bets and say a few words about it (which is rather difficult, given that I can’t find a trailer or any reviews).

The film centers on two geneticists (Adrien Brody and Sarah Polley) who achieve fame by fusing human DNA with the DNA of various animals, ignoring many of the ethical standards of their profession. They succeed in creating a new organism they call “Dren”, which rapidly develops from a deformed infant into a winged human-chimera hybrid. The Dren forms a bond with its creators, but that bond eventually turns deadly…

It seems like a good premise for a sci-fi/horror film, perhaps not unlike Mimic or The Fly, but first it has to come OUT. If it does, and if it has the right number of screens, it might make a splash. If not? Well, ditch it quickly. The last thing one wants in an Ultimate lineup is a big gaping hole.


My predictions for the weekend of September 18-20, 2009:

1. Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs - $30 million
2. Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself - $13 million
3. The Informant! - $12 million
4. Love Happens - $10 million
5. Jennifer’s Body - $8 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week (gulp) six more films to critique as we close out the month of September, including: Surrogates, a sci-fi action drama starring Bruce Willis; Fame, an updated version of the early 1980’s musical film; Pandorum, a tense sci-fi horror film starring Dennis Quaid and Ben Foster; Capitalism: A Love Story, the latest documentary from controversial director Michael Moore; as well as limited features Coco Before Chanel and The Boys Are Back.

Later!

This week's trailers:













Can't find one for Splice, sorry.

Bring your own beer!

...Jennifer Aniston’s career really hasn’t progressed much since Friends went off the air and her split from Brad Pitt?

I wouldn't say that... Last 4 films: Management, He's Just Not That Into You, Marley & Me, The Break Up. I am in no way endorsing Love Happens.

Man, I have no idea what the Informant is going to do. The ads that are EVERYWHERE here, it feels like it could be a big success, but I decided to spend the extra dollars on Cloudy, anyways. More of a sure thing.

Informant looks too indie to have a huge opening weekend, I'd say Shryke nailed it on that one.

I don't know what to make of Jennifer's Body now. The reviews aren't helping so it's looking like it may bomb.

I think Paris will nab 2 or so PTA points, so it's not a bad option.

MAY bomb?

The Informant should do well, adverts are everywhere and who doesn't like Matt Damon? Looks funny as well...

JB should be good for anywhere between $25-$40M total, still don't know how it'll do on OW.

Cloudy - $35M (makes a pass at the September OW record)
I Can Do Bad - $15M
The Informant - $14M
Jennifer's Body - $11M
Love Happens - $7M

I still have not seen any TV or Internet ads for Jennifer's Body. Plus most critics are trashing the film and when Oscar winners follow-ups fail to deliver, then it is absolutely FUBAR.

In other news, I just tonight saw my first TV spot for Invention of Lying. Bout time.

What TV channels do you watch Boush? Just curious

NBC and CBS, Geez.

Oh, well thats why. It has been plastered all over channels like FX, Spike, MTV.. etc... and I say its been plastered all over them because I very rarely watch these channels, but in the occurrences where I've had them on for a handful of minutes, they have been on. They are targeting the younger audience that may actually see the movie.

I've seen Jennifers Body ads all over the fucking place, and I don't even have TV (though I do use my roommates to watch things on occasion).

Where did you see Invention of Lying Shryke? I saw the first one last night too, but I can't remember if it was during the Big Brother finale or Sons of Anarchy (which is shaping up to be better than most movies being released, btw...but I guess that's what happens when you get Ron Pearlman, Henry Rollins, and other movie actors in a show).

I saw the first one for Invention today... Or was it last night? I can't remember what on though.

The only thing I was watching last night was The Biggest Loser, so it must have been NBC.

There was a spot for Invention of Lying during 90210, but I FF'ed through it...

I've been watching Adult Swim (one ep of Family Guy, two of Robot Chicken) for the past hour or so while doing the pricing list (it's in the mail Shryke!) and I've seen the Jennifer's Body Tv spot TEN times. For real.

They're def going after the right demographic.

Looks like that it's never a good idea to air most of your spots at five or six in the morning.

In other news, Splice didn't open this week due to the financial troubles at the company. In fact, the film is still being tested at the moment so it isn't completely finished either.

That's what I thought. Figured I'd wait for the other shoe to drop before I pulled it from the roster.

I was in Indiana and was forced into watching television a few times. I did see an ad for The Invention of Lying. No clue what network or what time it was...

Donte77 wrote:I was in Indiana and was forced into watching television a few times. I did see an ad for The Invention of Lying. No clue what network or what time it was...

...I was in Indiana too. :)

...me too.