SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 7/10 - Bruno, I Love You Beth Cooper

Is it just me, or does it seem like just about every movie that’s come out this summer has either vastly overachieved or vastly underachieved? Consider that Star Trek, Up, The Hangover, The Proposal and perhaps even Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen have done even better than the most optimistic projections foretold (although in the case of Transformers, things will probably calm down a whole lot in the next couple of weeks). On the other end of the coin, most Fantaversians would probably consider Wolverine, Night at the Museum 2, Terminator: Salvation, Land of the Lost, The Taking of Pelham 123 and Imagine That to have underperformed. About the only major release that landed squarely in the middle ground was Angels and Demons, and only because not many people expected much out of that title in the first place.

Last week, Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs and Public Enemies got out to good (if not overwhelming) starts over the Independence Day weekend. Will either of the two films coming out on Friday, July 10th be added to the list of breakout successes, or will they join the slightly longer list of films that talked the talk but ultimately couldn’t walk the walk? And with the sixth Harry Potter film looming next Wednesday, does it really matter?

In 2006, multi-faceted comedian Sacha Baron Cohen took America by storm with a little film called Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan. In this film, the British funnyman donned the role of fictitious Kazakh journalist Borat Sagdiyev, who travels to the United States, interacting with its citizens under the guise of filming a documentary. Of course, Cohen’s REAL purpose was to unwittingly catch his “subjects” in embarrassing situations, on film. The finished product, which was a controversial as the day is long, ended up being a smash success, earning over $261 million worldwide ($128 million in the U.S.) and being nominated for several prestigious awards (and winning the Golden Globe in 2007 for Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy).

Three years later, Cohen has thrown himself into a brand new persona, that of a gayer-than-gay Austrian fashionista named Brüno. In pretty much the same format as Borat, Bruno will take his so-monumentally-offensive-it’s-funny brand of humor to the streets and studios of America, in an attempt to outdo his success from three years before.

I’ll be honest with you – I loathe Cohen and his brand of humor. Compared to him, I kiss the feet of Will Ferrell. I find nothing he says or does remotely funny, and you could not pay me to see this movie. But I realize that I am in the minority, especially among professional critics, as given by the fact that Brüno’s current score on RottenTomatoes is a hearty “80% fresh”. Pretty much all of them have similar things to say: “Outrageous,” “brilliantly rude”, “sick, offensive, and totally hilarious”. No doubt about it: those that enjoyed Borat will most definitely be back for Cohen’s second major outing.

Despite my feelings toward the man, I will say that I really do admire the way he completely buries himself in his character, starting several weeks to months before the release of the film, and not breaking character once until well after the premiere’s spotlights have dimmed. If you watched Bruno’s (totally staged) outrageous entrance at the MTV Movie Awards last month – where he came out in angel’s wings and no pants, landing crotch-first on Eminem’s face – then you’ll know this to be true as well.

The only question remains: does Bruno have a chance to replicate the success that Borat had, or will audiences think that Cohen’s shtick has worn thin? Riding a roller coaster is never as fun the second time, if you catch my drift; and while the character of Borat may have been more endearing because of his almost child-like innocence, Bruno possesses no such qualities. He is, as I’ve surmised from the trailers, self-centered, arrogant, in-your-face, and he throws all caution, sensibility and decorum to the four winds. In the end, I think the number of people who will leave the theater smiling and laughing will be significantly less than three years ago.

July has a veritable plethora of comedies, of various types: G-Force, The Ugly Truth, Funny People and Aliens in the Attic are all gracing screens this month (not to mention 500 Days of Summer, which will be coming out in limited release). And there has already been one R-rated comedy that has broken the bank this summer, that being The Hangover. I honestly don’t think there will be a second one.

Which is not to say Bruno will flop badly, the way Land of the Lost did. But I honestly believe $90 million is the ceiling for this film, and it could stall with as little as $55 million if it takes a second-week dip in excess of 55-60%. It might have just enough oomph to win it’s opening weekend, but it will probably need to crack $30 million to do so. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen will probably continue it’s free-fall, but it remains to be seen how sturdy Ice Age's legs hold. In all, I predict eight or nine Top 5 points, four PTA, and a User Rating of 7.2. For $20 in Ultimate leagues ($22 in Box Office), this is definitely one of the riskiest prospects out there.

A lot of players are putting a lot of faith in I Love You, Beth Cooper, despite the fact that it is the latest representative of a genre that has foundered badly in the last year or so: the romantic teen comedy. However, this one has one thing most of those flops didn’t have…a PG-13 rating. So those of you expecting the same dismal production as Sex Drive ($8 million), Miss March ($4.5 million) and Fired Up! ($17 million), you can probably have higher hopes… just not TOO much higher.

At least this one has the benefit of a seasoned veteran behind the camera, in the form of director Chris Columbus, the man behind such comedy megahits as Home Alone and Mrs. Doubtfire. In this one, nerdy valedictorian Denis Cooverman (Semi-Pro) decides, during his graduation speech, to profess his love for the school babe (who is played by everyone’s favorite indestructible cheerleader, Heroes’ Hayden Panettiere). Initially embarrassed, she decides to indulge Denis’s fantasy for a short while. Regrettably, the eventually involves running for their lives from Beth’s extremely jealous and psychotic ex-boyfriend (Shawn Roberts).

I’ve heard rumors that Hayden will bare all for this film, but before you guys start unleashing your boners, remember that this film IS rated PG-13, and probably won’t boil down to much more than a fleeting bare-butt shot… but I’m sure that will be enough to send thousands of drooling teenagers to the theaters.

Even so, given the fact that Beth Cooper isn’t likely to bow in much more than 2,000 theaters, I think it will be highly unlikely to crack the Top 5 on its opening weekend. Given that I’ve seen next to no advertising for this film as well, I envision no better than $7 million in its first three days, and no more than $20 million total. Such a shame, it will land four months hence on the mostly-ignored rack at the nearest Blockbuster. For $6 (in both types of leagues), I would give this one a definite pass.


My predictions for the weekend of July 10-12, 2009:

1. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs - $31 million
2. Bruno - $29 million
3. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - $25 million
4. Public Enemies - $13 million
5. The Proposal - $9 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, the very last of the big BIG films of the summer hits theaters, as Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince comes a-calling. The sixth overall in the series features the return of the entire cast of characters that we have watched grow up in the last decade, as Harry, Ron, Hermione and the rest come ever closer to their final showdown with the evil Lord Voldemort. And… well, that’s pretty much it. What else do you need?

Later!

I can understand your hatred for Sacha Baron Cohen but compared to guys like Dane Cook and Andy Samberg, he's one of the Marx Brothers.

$31M for Ice Age? After a $41M OW? I think it'll drop a little more than that.

And Fired Up! was PG-13 too, $17M actually sounds about right for Beth Cooper. And after seeing Hayden on Letterman, I will be downloading the movie. I have to see this nude scene, no matter if it's no more than Angelina Jolie's scene in Wanted.

And why don't you like Cohan? No fan of the offensive humor? Or was it just the Borat movie you didn't like? Have you seen The Ali G Show? Question mark?

I don't like the offensive humor. Where his goal is just to get people to humiliate themselves on camera. Don't find that funny at all.

I'm guessing you're not a fan of Candid Camera. The films are basically modern-day versions of Candid Camera but with Cohen's cast of characters doing the Allen/Peter Funt role.

And on Transformers, I'll say the drop will be over 50% again. I'll go with $19 million in Week 3.

Ack! ILYBC is not at all the movie I thought I was adding to my slates. You said "teen romantic comedy" and I was like, wtf he must not have watched the trailers.... turned out I have no clue what the title of the movie is that I intended to add. Regardless it was a horror movie, something where they go to a remote place after graduation or something, and then start getting attacked??? (pretty sure that describes like 90% of all horror movies)...
Ugh, now to find a suitable replacement.

All the boys love Mandy Lane. Mandy lane is hotter then beth cooper.

My numbers:
1. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs - $31 million
2. Bruno - $29 million
3. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - $25 million
4. Public Enemies - $13 million
5. The Proposal - $9 million


DHD friday estimates
1. Bruno $36.8
2. ice age $28
3. T2 $25
4. Public Enemies $15
5. Proposal $10.5


Well, I underestimated Bruno, but that's not too bad!

Bruno is NOT a new character...is in fact more than five years old, and was one of three personas on Da Ali G Show from HBO.

And his goal is not to humiliate as much as see people as they are without the mask they wear when they go out. For instance, those fratboys from the first one made disparaging remarks about girls and other races...which they did amongst themselves before, but now we can all see who they are under the facade. I'm sure Bruno will bring out the homophobia many of America have but don't admit to. And it will be done comedically...which is even better, as it makes a statement without getting bogged down...

Shryke you hit the nail on the head with these predictions.

My numbers:
1. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs - $31 million
2. Bruno - $29 million
3. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - $25 million
4. Public Enemies - $13 million
5. The Proposal - $9 million


BOM Sunday Estimates
1. Bruno $30.4
2. Ice Age $28.5
3. T2 $24.2
4. Public Enemies $14.1
5. Proposal $10.5

Wow. My batting average just went up!!!