Apr. 17th Tracking

RS 4/17
-- notfabio, Apr 12, 17:32
Note:
A pretty huge change for State of Play, but these numbers (except for Trek which hasn't shown up in other tracking yet) are much more in line with other services now though there isn't the big gulf between Obsessed and Soloist as far as awareness goes.

17 AGAIN: Low 20's
STATE OF PLAY: Mid Teens
CRANK 2: Low Teen Millions


Future:
WOLVERINE: High 80's
TREK: Mid 50's
OBSESSED: Mid 20's
GHOSTS OF GIRLFRIENDS PAST: Almost mid 20's
SOLOIST: High Single Digits

Mid 20's for Obsessed? I still find that hard to believe... if it's true, it's a definite one to pick in Box Office. Ultimate too, if it can manage a UR higher than 6.0.

I think 17 Again will open a little higher than that. It's been selling out most mid-afternoon, early evening shows here in cinemas i go to, and that's a pretty good accomplishment.

I'm also hoping State of Play opens higher. Saw the trailer, and it looks like a really good movie.

State Of Play looks about right. The trailers don't seem to know what the film is (a political thriller or a Bourne-style action movie) and it seems similar to last year's Body Of Lies.

I also think Crank 2 will do better than the projections. If Fast and Furious can do $70 million, this can do $20 million.

If Obsessed stays at or near that number next weekend, it will definately be worth a lot of consideration. Now, it just looks too high.

Good tracking for Wolverine and Star Trek. Also good for Ghosts of Girlfriends Past, considering that we haven't had a pure chick flick for the adult women in a while.

MTC 4/17
-- notfabio, Apr 13, 15:53
17 Again: I believe 24 have to check on that though
Crank: 15
State of Play 11

I think Crank can do 13-15 people arent in love with Statham plus not everybody was fond of the first one. I dont Crank can manage 20.

People are still sleeping on Obsessed...tsk tsk.

I'm surprised that Ghost's is tracking that high, I haven't seen much promotion for it. But J.I. is right, we haven't had a chick flick since Valentine's weekend so it may be good timing. Counterprogramming worked for Mamma Mia! so why not this?

Also, it's sad that The Soloist won't do that well, seeing as how it looks like it could be one of the better movies of the year. Universal really fucked up pushing it back, it could've been one of those mid-level dramas that satisfy both audiences and critics during awards season last year.

The Soloist will flop because the trailer is awful. I don't think I've seen more cliches in a movie trailer released by a major studio, let alone two major studios.

The marketing department person responsible for the creation of that trailer deserves to be fired.

Yeah, except you forgot the part where the Soloist trailer is really good and makes me, a person who really isn't into that type of movie, interested in seeing it.

But, geez...what reason do you have to see that movie after you've seen the trailer? I'm not doubting the movie will be good, and i will definitely go see it, but i agree with boush that the trailer is way too revealing and too over-the-top feel goody to really be effective...it shows way too much of the story, totally killing any potential...one of the most by the numbers trailers ever.

I agree with Ipkiss and Boush. Trailer just didn't cut it for me. As a matter of fact, it would kind of explain why the movie was shifted.

But hey, don't judge a book by it's cover i guess. Although i won't be reading this book till it's out on DVD (does that even make sense?).

yeah, what is up with the way-too-revealing trailers recently? went to the theater the other night and i feel like i saw 4 free movies before the feature started..

i can't imagine there's much left to see of the film after sitting through the long version of the Funny People trailer

Today's trailer editors are apparently graduates of the Robert Zemeckis School of Trailer Editing.

Also (despite the fact that trailer editors aren't working with completely edited films), there should be a rule against using the final third of the film in the trailer. The worst example of is was the trailer for National Security. I remember being excited to see the film and ended up kind of miffed to find that the whole ending was revealed at the very beginning of the trailer.

I don't think I've seen a trailer for "The Soloist" except for when I went to the theater... I'm pretty sure I saw one when I went in November and one when I went in March. They should have put a "Pursuit of Happyness? type marketing campaign because it kinda reminds me of that.

Aren't trailers supposed to tell you what is happening in the film? Are there really people on here that think there is no difference between a 2 minute summary of scenes that give you a synopsis of the plot and a 2 hour piece of art known as a film? The only way your argument seems to make sense, at least to me, is if the movie is terrible and only relies on a twist ending to be good, and they give that away. There is no way you can show the entire movie in 2 minutes, obviously. I thought that people on here would have a little more respect for the medium to think that they have seen all of a director and crew's efforts from watching a 2 minute trailer. That doesn't make sense. All you are saying is that you know what will happen in the movie. Well anyone can do that by reading a plot synopsis. I am interested in how it happens, and there is no way they can show that in 2 minutes.

As to the over-the-top feel good aspect, so what? The world needs those types of movies when everything else makes you feel so shitty. War, Economy, taxes, death, the world is full of shit bringing us down. Feel good movies at least take us away from that for at least the time we are in the theater watching them.

Plus, its Robert Downey Jr. and Jaime Foxx. If you can't enjoy just watching them deliver a performance for 2 hours, I don't know what you would want to watch.

Defense over.

W wrote:I don't think I've seen a trailer for "The Soloist" except for when I went to the theater... I'm pretty sure I saw one when I went in November and one when I went in March. They should have put a "Pursuit of Happyness? type marketing campaign because it kinda reminds me of that.

Well, they're the same trailer, they just replaced the "This November" title card with one that says "This Spring".

But the only thing I didn't like about the trailer is, in the middle, where they play some of the stuff Jamie Foxx's character does as comedy. Like when he puts up the picture Steve Austin (I don't know who that is), and he's like "I thought that was you". Kinda threw me off the first time...

And yeah, most trailers these days are too spoiler-ish. I probably already know how The Soloist will end, but that doesn't stop me from wanting to see two (presumably) great performances. This is not a movie that depends on a gotcha ending, but one that's all about the characters. So it's not a big deal to me if I have an idea of the ending beforehand.

In your defense speech, you should have mentioned that it is a true story, so its kind of hard to keep the ending a secret. You know the boat is going down in Titanic and it would take 2 seconds for anyone to find out what happens here.

Like, I knew that Alexander was going to drink wine, die of disease, and split his empire up, but I went to see that piece of crap anyway. I regret seeing it, but not because the ending is revealed.

For me, though, films can be ruined in two ways: first, they tell you the ending when you don't want to be told the ending such as a detective/whodunit? story. Second is when they tell all the good jokes in a comedy in the trailer, so when you see the story you are expecting more of that good comedy, but there are really only 3 or 4 good jokes in the film, all told in the trailer.

Also, Steve Austin is either a worn-down professional wrestler that does bad action films now or a major figure in Texas history with a large metropolitan city named after him. Probably the wrestler, who looks nothing like Robert Downey, Jr.

I believe Steve Austin is the Million Dollar Man...

And with most cineplex movies, the ending is given easy to guess without the trailer. For instance, Transformers 2...Bad robot comes in, good robots fight him, one good robot dies (probably whatever one they portrayed as "ethnic", so the closet racists, possibly including Michael Bay, won't care too much) humans in the struggle (who will be going through small overdramtic bullshit of their own, probably relationship based) almost die from bad robot and good robots save them in the end. And the Transformers trailer I saw before Observe and Report was so fucking bad that, while I was planning to at least check it out before, I no longer want to at all.

Million Dollar Man = Ted DiBiasi

Steve Austin = Stone Cold

But, the Million Dollar Man Ted DiBiasi was Stone Cold Steve Austin's manager at one point.

Everyone knows that.

No, W, the Million Dollar Man tv show that was on back in the day...I think it was related to the Bionic Woman show in the 70's...

OHHHHHHHHHH.... The "Six Million Dollar Man"... Was that his name?

I guess it was six-million...my bad...but yeah, I think that was his name...

W wrote:

Like, I knew that Alexander was going to drink wine, die of disease, and split his empire up, but I went to see that piece of crap anyway. I regret seeing it, but not because the ending is revealed.

This movie is on my top 5 list for movies that I was most looking forward to that disappointed me the most. I had such high hopes...and I remember while I was watching it I kept waiting for it to get good...and then it was over...and it made me hate Colin Farrell for a very, very long time...

I still hate that bastard... It's number one on my list.