Feb 6th Tracking

Are you ready for some RS 2/6 (warning, the other tracking services do not agree with RS on HJNTU and INTL)
-- notfabio, Feb 1, 19:06
Other services put awareness for HJNTU rivaling FRI13 with women and solid with other demos. On the other hand, they are much weaker for INTERNATIONAL

PINK PANTHER: Mid 20's
HE'S JUST NOT THAT INTO YOU: Low Teens
Coraline: Between 9-11
PUSH: Between 6-9

Future RS:
FRIDAY 13: Low 30's (4 day)
SHOPAHOLIC: Low 20's (4 day)
Internationa: Low 20's (4 day)
Fired Up: Between 9-11
JONAS BROS: Low 30's

Fired Up is tracking that well? I haven't even seen a trailer or TV spot for it, only a poster with the letters "F.U." in big letters and nothing else. But then again, those people at Maxim must be counting on their leagues of chauvinist douchebags who read the magazine to see it.

My guess would have been $4 million or even lower, maybe to levels seen by films such as Van Wilder 2 or The Brothers Solomon. I really can't see anyone wanting to see a film about male cheerleaders filled with juvenile boob jokes and homophobic humor.

Buscemi wrote:Fired Up is tracking that well? I haven't even seen a trailer or TV spot for it, only a poster with the letters "F.U." in big letters and nothing else. But then again, those people at Maxim must be counting on their leagues of chauvinist douchebags who read the magazine to see it.

My guess would have been $4 million or even lower, maybe to levels seen by films such as Van Wilder 2 or The Brothers Solomon. I really can't see anyone wanting to see a film about male cheerleaders filled with juvenile boob jokes and homophobic humor.

Isn't that what makes all the best movies....

Gotta say, you seem to have had the Push and Pink Panther tracking down to a tee all along Boussh. I guess we'll wait and see, but I didn't see that coming at all.

Judging by the trailer, which has been running on abc family at least, it might possibly be the worst film ever made. But I can see it making some decent money. Maybe in the 30 million range.

was just on Worst Previews and they had Fired Up! ads all over the place. It does looks like a piece of shit.

Wow, if a 16 (17?)-year-old thinks so, it just must be so...

Wow, I thought Push would do a lot better than a single digit OW. I still think it will actually.

And I'm angry that the Jonas Brothers 3D movie isn't $4 like the Hannah Montana last year.

MTC 2/6 (much different for the first two)
-- notfabio, Feb 2, 13:20
He's Just: 20
Pink: 14
Coraine 10
Push: 7

Wow, it just keeps getting worse for Push. Pink Panther's numbers are really varying, as are HJNTIU. Wonder which way it will go. Really having a headache over my slates because of that movie.

One of the good things about this new, "boring," text format for the leagues is that I second guess myself a whole lot less. I've been taking Pink Panther 2 for the most part on all my slates and I am hoping that the audiences are not burnt out from Paul Blart to appreciate (i.e. pay lots of money for) for Inspector Jacques Clouseau.

People will never get tired of Inspector Clouseau. He's a legendary comedic character.

Shrykespeare wrote:Wow, if a 16 (17?)-year-old thinks so, it just must be so...

yeah thats kind of saying something btw Shryke im still 16 i turn 17 on April 21.

silversurfer19 wrote:Wow, it just keeps getting worse for Push. Pink Panther's numbers are really varying, as are HJNTIU. Wonder which way it will go. Really having a headache over my slates because of that movie.

It's pretty much a rule that if MTC is much higher than RS that the number goes higher than MTC (Paul Blart and Taken are recent examples), and if MTC is much lower, it goes closer to MTC.

My predictions:
He's Just Not That Into You: $22 million
Pink Panther 2: $16 million
Push: $11 million
Coraline: $11 million

I know it don't mean diddly, but today's poll over at Box Office Mojo is "What is your top choice to see this weekend?" And after nearly 1000 votes, guess what #1 is?

It's Push. Coraline is 2nd, He's Just Not is 3rd, and Pink Panther 2? 5th, right behind "No interest this weekend."

How many times do I have to tell you that Box Office Mojo tracking means nothing? It's nothing more than a bunch of center-right young adults who only watch dumb action movies and hate anything that's foreign, female-oriented or challenges their mind. Of course Push is going to have the best tracking. But it doesn't mean that they'll see it. When Doomsday came out, that was tracking well but then it ended up being a flop. And I'm sure there are other examples.

I'll take that with a grain of salt Shryke. I don't think many women, kids, or parents with kids log on to boxofficemojo.com. Instead, it's a bunch of movie geeks like us, who of course would not vote for He's Just Not That Into You or Pink Panter.

Damn you Buscemi, you had to beat me to the punch didn't you?

Which is why I started with the caveat "I know it don't mean diddly".

We expect more from you Shryke. Now, you take a time out and think about what you've done!

Oh, bite me. (Grin.)

Still nothing from Steve Mason...

Yeah, it was stupid to listen to BOM polls when it made it look like Iron Man could have a $100 million opening weekend.

BOM polls work well if you take into account that kids movies and purely women movies will be smaller than normal. It's just like the raw tracking numbers before RS and MTC compare it to other movies of its kind.

Mason's column is now up. Here are his predictions for this weekend:
FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF FEBRUARY 6
1. NEW – He’s Not That Into You (Warner Bros) - $21M
2. NEW – Pink Panther 2 (Sony) - $17M
3. Taken (Fox) - $15M
4. NEW - Push (Summit) - $9.9M
5. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $8.75M
6. NEW – Coraline (Focus) - $8.7M
7. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $5.5M
8. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $5.3M
9. Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $5M
10. The Uninvited (Paramount) - $4.5M
11. Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (Sony) - $4M
12. New in Town (Lionsgate) - $3.7M

Full Column Link

Finally, Mase's numbers:

After a spectacular $1 billion dollar-grossing January for the movie industry, Hollywood trots out four new titles for the first weekend of February. The first month of ’09 was nothing short of spectacular, featuring nine releases with 3-day openings of $17M or better led by Paul Blart: Mall Cop ($31.8M) and the wide break of Gran Torino ($29.5M).

According to industry tracking, it looks like the new Warner Bros romantic comedy He’s Just Not That Into You will win the coming weekend. The early reviews are coming in a bit lukewarm (42% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but it doesn’t matter especially. Awareness is high and Definite Interest and First Choice numbers are exceedingly solid, especially among women.

It’s not surprising given that the expression, originally coined by comic Greg Behrendt, has become a mantra for single women everywhere. He and Liz Tuccilo were both writers on HBO’s Sex & The City, and he casually tossed off the phrase when one of his co-workers wondered why she hadn’t heard from a guy after a seemingly successful date. Behrendt and Tuccillo decided that there was a whole book expounding on the phrase just itching to be written, and the rest is history.

Their dating advice book He’s Just Not That Into You, published in 2004, became a bestseller, and the film rights for the self-help book were snapped up by Drew Barrymore’s Flower Films. Barrymore has become the model of success for Hollywood actresses. From a famous acting family, she became a child star in E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial but fell prey to alcohol and drug abuse. She even wrote an autobiography about her troubles in the 1990 autobiographical book Little Girl Lost. Sadly, she was only 15 at the time of publication.

Then along came Nancy Juvonen. She was born in Marin County and graduated from USC, and while her brother Jim was working on the Barrymore project Mad Love in 1994, she and Drew became friends. They founded Flower Films almost immediately, and the result has been a streak of movies that include the very edgy (Donnie Darko) and the very commercial (Charlie’s Angels).

BOX OFFICE PERFORMANCE OF MOVIES FROM FLOWER FILMS
1999 – Never Been Kissed – $11.8M opening – $55.5M cume
2000 – Charlie’s Angels - $40.1M opening – $125.3M cume
2001 – Donnie Darko - $110K opening – $1.3M cume
2003 – Charlie’s Angels: Full Throttle - $37.6M opening – $100.8M cume
2003 – Duplex - $4.6M opening – $9.7M cume
2004 – 50 First Dates – $39.8M opening – $120.9M cume
2005 – Fever Pitch – $12.4M opening – $42M cume
2007 – Music & Lyrics – $13.6M opening – $50.5M cume

Also, during the making of Fever Pitch, Nancy Juvonen met Jimmy Fallon, and the two are now happily married. Fallon will soon be sliding into the Conan slot when Conan O’Brien takes over the Tonight Show, so this is a real power couple.

The first quarter of the year is always a good opening for a romantic comedy. Warner Bros is releasing He’s Just Not That Into You on the weekend before the 4-day Presidents Day weekend, and this movie will be the only true “date movie” in theatres for Valentine’s Day next Saturday. Over the last five years or so, here is the track record for rom-com’s released in the first quarter of the movie year.

2/11/05 – Hitch - $43.1M opening - $179.5M cume
2/13/04 – 50 First Dates - $39.8M opening - $120.9M cume
1/16/04 – Along Came Polly - $27.7M opening - $88M cume
3/10/06 – Failure to Launch - $24.4M opening - $88.7M cume
1/18/08 – 27 Dresses - $23M opening - $76.8M cume
2/08/08 – Fool’s Gold - $21.6M opening - $70.2M cume
1/09/09 – Bride Wars - $21M opening - $54.3 (to-date cume)
3/24/05 – Miss Congeniality 2: Armed & Fabulous - $14M opening - $48.5M cume
2/14/07 – Music & Lyrics - $13.6M - $50.5M cume
2/02/07 – Because I Said So - $13.1M opening - $42.6M cume
2/04/05 – The Wedding Date - $11.1M opening - $31.7M cume
2/14/08 – Definitely Maybe - $9.7M opening - $32.2M cume
3/26/04 – Jersey Girl - $8.3M opening - $25.2M cume

I am anticipating that He’s Just Not That Into You will open to about $21M this weekend scoring an easy win, and it could have a nifty $50M in the bank by the end of the Presidents/Valentine’s 4-day.

Steve Martin is truly a genius. I recently finished his mini-memoir Born Standing Up, and I came away with an even greater appreciation for his intelligence. From the screenplays for Roxanne and L.A. Story to his brilliant stage play Picasso at Lapin Agile to the melancholy of his novel Shopgirl, there is no question that he can write. But when juxtaposed with his go-for-broke, arrow-through-the-head, comic self-mockery, you have a true show business original.

He uttered what I consider to be among the funniest lines I’ve ever heard. On the 2001 Oscar telecast, which Martin hosted, enigmatic Icelandic musical artist Bjork wore an infamous dress modeled after a swan. After Bjork’s performance, Martin quipped, “I was going to wear my swan, but to me, they’re so last year.” The perfect line. Billy Crystal would have bludgeoned us with hammy swan joke after hammy swan joke, but Martin got big laughs with one withering, bone dry remark. (Also that year, Martin joked, “I didn’t realize Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon was a movie. To me it sounds like something Siegfried & Roy do on vacation.”)

Now one of my comedy heroes appears to be doing the classic paycheck movie. Pink Panther 2 (Sony), a sequel to the dismal 2006 Pink Panther remake, has an horrific 5% Fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes as of Thursday. Wade Major at Box Office Magazine sums up the critical consensus calling Pink Panther 2, “Vapid, low-grade slapstick, hopelessly dull yet innocuous, designed more for marketability than entertainment.”

Martin’s first appearance as Inspector Clouseau generated a $20.2M opening en route to $82.2M domestic. The sequel seems headed for a softer start and nowhere near the total take. I am predicting about $17M by Monday, enough for a #2 finish. It will be helped by big matinee business on Saturday and Sunday.

The excellent Taken (Fox), starring Liam Neeson as what may be the most kick-ass Dad in movie history, will benefit from excellent word-of-mouth for a possible $15M. If you’re an action movie fan and you missed it last weekend, it is a must-see.

Another new wide release called Push is targeting fourth-place, stretching to reach the $10M range. This is Summit Entertainment’s first release since the mega-hit Twilight ($187M domestic), but critics aren’t being especially generous (27% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes so far). Riffing on NBC’s Heroes and the blockbuster film series X-Men, UK-born director Paul McGuigan (the respectable Lucky Number Slevin and the embarrassing remake of Wicker Park) is working with young Dakota Fanning and a couple of almost-stars - Oscar nominee Djimon Hounsou (In America) and Chris Evans (Johnny Storm in Fantastic Four) – but judging from the latest pre-opening industry tracking, that doesn’t seem like enough to make Push a meaningful hit.

It may be close between Sony’s Paul Blart: Mall Cop and the brand new 3-D animated movie Coraline (Focus) for fifth-place. As exhibitors from coast-to-coast race to add 3-D in advance of the late March release of Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount), Coraline will benefit from what will almost certainly be the most 3-D screens in modern history.

The 3-D is reportedly the most eye-popping yet, and critics love the movie to the tune of 86% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, but writer/director Henry Selick’s subversive vibe limits the potential audience. Selick may always be a cult favorite director who hit one big home run - Tim Burton’s Nightmare Before Christmas, which has now grossed almost $75M domestic and returns to theatres every Halloween.

Coraline is based on the Hugo Award-winning Neil Gaiman novel of the same name, and, despite its PG rating, the commercials and trailers are downright creepy. The mother with the buttons-for-eyes seems a bit nightmare-inducing and that may make Moms reluctant to pile the kids in the car for this one. I am calling for about $8.7M and a #6 finish.

FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF FEBRUARY 6
1. NEW – He’s Not That Into You (Warner Bros) - $21M
2. NEW – Pink Panther 2 (Sony) - $17M
3. Taken (Fox) - $15M
4. NEW - Push (Summit) - $9.9M
5. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $8.75M
6. NEW – Coraline (Focus) - $8.7M
7. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $5.5M
8. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $5.3M
9. Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $5M
10. The Uninvited (Paramount) - $4.5M
11. Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (Sony) - $4M
12. New in Town (Lionsgate) - $3.7M

Weird thing about Coraline: Since MBV is still doing relatively well in 3D, some theaters (well, at least mine) wanted to run Coraline in the morning saving the last couple of showtimes for MBV. Focus said that Coraline must run by itself all day or it doesn't run at all. Needless to say, we're not getting Coraline in 3D. Seems like a very stupid business decision.

CS predictions:

HJNTIY: above $25 mil.
PP2: $24 mil.
Taken: $12-$13 mil.
Push: above $9 mil.
PB:MC: about $9 mil.
Coraline: below $9 mil.

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