2/27 Tracking

RS 2.29 (Noticable upticks on a few titles)
-- notfabio, Feb 22, 15:32
JONAS: Mid 30's
STREET FIGHTER: Sub 3 million

Future:
LAST HOUSE: Between 10-12
RACE TO WITCH MOUNTAIN: Low 40's
MISS MARCH: Between 3-5 million
WATCHMEN: Mid 50's
DUPLICITY: Between 21-24 million

That number is way too high for Duplicity. I really can't see it opening higher than 12 million. Also, Race to Witch Mountain is a little high, but other than that it looks accurate.

I can actually see Street Fighter opening to under a million. The film is getting a rather limited opening (only 1,000 theatres) and there have been no ads in theatres or on TV (even the poster is vague and makes the film look more like a generic action film rather than a film based upon one of the biggest video game series of all-time).

Meanwhile, I see Miss March only opening to $2 million. The film is basically Sex Drive but without any familiar faces (I mean, does anyone even watch The Whitest Kids U Know?).

geezer9687 wrote:That number is way too high for Duplicity. I really can't see it opening higher than 12 million. Also, Race to Witch Mountain is a little high, but other than that it looks accurate.

In that case I'd better drop it immediately.

Can't say I'm surprised by the Duplicity tracking. I've been talking about it for months. I am surprised at how badly Street Fighter will bomb. And if Madea can reach nearly 41M, then what can Watchmen get?

seriously street fighter under a million? last night when i was watching tv i saw about 7 ads for it in about an hours span. plus you cant forget that the newest game just came out so everybody is going to be in street fighte mode. i can see it geting 2.5 - 3 million

I love the underestimating of Duplicity and Race to Witch Mountain, I've got them both in pretty much all of my march slates already. They will surprise...I almost guarantee that.

MTC 227
-- notfabio, Feb 23, 13:29
Jonas: 37
Street: 4

Even though I don't think JB will be affected by the recession at all, it is still looking like a breakout hit, and may open higher than HM last year.

IPKI$$, I don't think Witch Mountain is being underestimated at all. I would think low 40s is exactly how it will open. Interesting to see how well movies seem to be performing so far this year. A lot of big openers, almost one a week, especially if Jonas Bros, follows suit. And with strong holds too its making for an interesting start to the year. Could a record breaking BO year be on the cards?

If it is a record-breaking year, that would be Blartastic!

Usual Update 8:30pm PST
-- notfabio, Feb 24, 0:32
JONAS:
275 Friday
135 Saturday
25 Sunday

WATCHMEN:
58 Midnight

Mason's numbers

FINAL PREDICTED GROSSES FOR FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 1
1. NEW – Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience (Disney) - $30M
2. Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) - $16.2M
3. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $9.5M
4. Taken (Fox) -$7.25M
5. Coraline (Focus) - $6M
6. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) - $5.1M
7. Friday The Thirteenth (Warner Bros) - $4.35M
8. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) - $4.3M
9. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $4.2M
10. NEW – Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li (Fox) - $4M
11. Fired Up (Sony) - $2.8M
12. The International (Sony) - $2.75M

J-Man wrote:Mason's numbers

FINAL PREDICTED GROSSES FOR FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 1
1. NEW – Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience (Disney) - $30M
2. Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) - $16.2M
3. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $9.5M
4. Taken (Fox) -$7.25M
5. Coraline (Focus) - $6M
6. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) - $5.1M
7. Friday The Thirteenth (Warner Bros) - $4.35M
8. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) - $4.3M
9. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $4.2M
10. NEW – Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li (Fox) - $4M
11. Fired Up (Sony) - $2.8M
12. The International (Sony) - $2.75M

I think Mase is low on JB. I think it can do at least mid-40s, and possibly break 50 if everything goes right.

Box Office Guru has similar numbers but bigger.

1. Jonas: 40M
2. Madea: -55%, 18.5M
3. Slumdog: 12M
4. Coraline: -35%, 7.5M
5. Taken: -40%, 6.5M

Street Fighter: 5M

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/jonas_brothers_3d/news/1798727/box_office_guru_preview_jonas_brothers_ready_to_rock_multiplexes

swarehouse wrote:I think Mase is low on JB. I think it can do at least mid-40s, and possibly break 50 if everything goes right.

Heck freaking no. After reports of bad presales, JB has its work cut out for it to get to $30 million.

Its been reported by theaters around the country, and also my theater (which is also showing it in IMAX) hasn't sold out a single showing and I literally have heard no buzz for this movie.

Well, tickets are $15 dollars and I never did see a single trailer before anything. Also, the reviews have been worse than Hannah Montana's concert film from last year.

Like it matters. Even Oscar-caliber reviews would still have only netted this film a 4.5 User Rating. As it is, look for around a 3.0. I'm betting those who took this film in Ultimate wished more 12-year-old girls voted on IMDb.

Buscemi wrote:Well, tickets are $15 dollars and I never did see a single trailer before anything. Also, the reviews have been worse than Hannah Montana's concert film from last year.

Well Hannah Montana did have a 70% tomatometer last year, so the critics aren't acting biased.

J.I. wrote:

swarehouse wrote:I think Mase is low on JB. I think it can do at least mid-40s, and possibly break 50 if everything goes right.

Heck freaking no. After reports of bad presales, JB has its work cut out for it to get to $30 million.

Its been reported by theaters around the country, and also my theater (which is also showing it in IMAX) hasn't sold out a single showing and I literally have heard no buzz for this movie.

What do you mean report of bad presales? I've read somewhere yesterday that there are over 700 sell outs for the weekend already

Yeah, it's not as big as Miley but it will be big nonetheless.

'Jonas Brothers 3-D': Looks Like $20M Wkd

FRIDAY PM: Very early data coming in suggests that Disney's Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience should open around $20 million this weekend from only 1,271 3-D theaters. "Honestly, I don't think it's disappointing at all," one rival studio exec tells me tonight. "Many had unrealistic expectations for this pic at 40+. But people forget the coup that Disney pulled off on Hannah Montana 3-D." That's because the latter was a "one week lock" engagement. (They held it over, of course). But the studio really created a sense of urgency among movoiegoers to see that 3D event which shocked Hollywood with a $32.1M opening. This time around, Disney's marketing gimmick is to out the Jonas Brothers on surprise personal appearances. (See my Midnight Frenzy For Jonas Brothers 3D Concert Film.) MovieTickets was reporting yesterday 744 sold-out performances before Friday for the Jonas Brothers movie, which opened at midnight Thursday. I've confirmed that advance ticket sales weren't anywhere near the levels of pre-sales for Hannah Montana. But Miley Cyrus is the star of her own Disney show whereas the Jonas Brothers' show won't begin to air until summer. Still, they were nominated for a Grammy for New Artist, and Disney Records this weekend is simultaneously releasing a soundtrack of the film. The pic should easily end up No. 1 this weekend, which has no competition. 20th Century Fox's Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li debuts in 1,136 venues, and The Weinstein Co's small specialty film Crossing Over starring Harrison Ford opens in 9 dates. (refresh for updates.)

I'm not suprised. My theater didn't sell out a single showing yesterday and already had over 10 sold out for Hannah Montana before that weekend started.

Meanwhile ERC is predicting $17 million. http://www.ercboxoffice.com/

Not one of the Jonas Brothers showings today so far has sold out at our theater. (Apparently, last night was somewhat busier.) I, another parent, and the six (!!!) giddy pretween girls we took to see the JB had the best seats in the house. Unsurprisingly, I still found the experience painful, though I have to admit, all the kids had a blast and the 3-D effects were MUCH better than in last year's Hannah Montana Best of Both Worlds concert film.

There were extended previews for Witch Mountain, Up, Earth and the Hannah Montana film, naturally, but, oddly, not a word for Monsters vs. Aliens. I know it's a DreamWorks pic, but with the 3-D format I had really expected the exhibitor to do some cross-promotion. [Shrug]

ALSO rather interestingly / concerningly, not a single one of the Dallas IMAX theaters has yet sold out of a single Watchmen screening on its opening weekend. With less than a week to go before it opened, The Dark Knight was already sold-out in the format. Pre-sales of Superman Returns, The Matrix Reloaded and 300 were similiarly strong. I wonder if we might be seeing Watchmen disappoint right out of the gate... Not good news, especially for those of us who have worked that film into pretty much every slate we own...


Will anybody be watching Watchmen?

Also the HSX Watchmen stock has been great depreciating in value over the past month. I'm nervous. Luckily, I erred on the side of Monsters for the slates that don't end in March.