Tracking President's Day Holiday

I believe that Prince Caspian made less than the original because they waited so long to do a sequel. When you adapt fantasy novels where the main characters are young children, you've got to get the sequels out quickly while the actors are still young or at the age of the characters in the book (example: Harry Potter).

In Night At The Museum's case, the main characters are adults and therefore you can do sequels as long as the characters are still relevant because you do have to worry about age. With Narnia, the characters are relevant but age is a factor. You can't release something two and a half years after the first when the events of the film take place just one year later.

J-Man wrote:I really hope Mase puts up some numbers, if only to see how he thinks Shopaholic will perform.

Box Office Guru has his predictions up: He has 30M for Friday 13th, 19 for Confessions and 11 for International for the 3 day.

Here are Mase's four day predictions:

FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE 4-DAY WEEKEND OF FEBRUARY 13-16
1. NEW – Friday the Thirteenth (Warner Bros) - $34.1M
2. NEW – Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) - $25M
3. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) - $21.25M
4. Taken (Fox) - $16.1M
5. Coraline (Focus) - $14.1M
6. NEW – The International (Sony) - $12.6M
7. Pink Panther 2 (Sony) - $9.9M
8. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $9.25M
9. Push (Summit) - $7.3M
10. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $6.2M
11. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $5.8M
12. The Uninvited (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $4.9M

I just made Box Office Guru a favorite, a new tool to use.

Hmm, I wonder if Confessions is good enough pick this week, as it'll be a close battle for second between it and He's Just Not That Into You.

DHD is reporting that Friday the 13th is heading for $40 million this 4-day weekend and Shopaholic in the mid 20's.

Friday numbers!

http://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/02/13/estimates-5/

TOP GROSSING PRESIDENT’S WEEKENDS FOR HOLLYWOOD
- combined gross of top 12 films -
1. 2009 - $195M (estimated)
2. 2007 - $167.8M
3. 2008 - $141.1M
4. 2003 - $141M
5. 2005 - $137.1M

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Friday the Thirteenth (Warner Bros) - $20M, $6,441 PTA, $20M cume
2. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) - $5.05M, $1,591 PTA, $40.51M cume
3. Taken (Fox) - $4.8M, $1,544 PTA, $63.47M cume
4. NEW – Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) - $4.4M, $1,755 PTA, $4.4M cume
5. Coraline (Focus) - $3.1M, $1,336 PTA, $23.33M cume
6. NEW – The International (Sony) - $3M, $1,279 PTA, $3M cume
7. Pink Panther 2 (Sony) - $2.2M, $678 PTA, $15.52M cume
8. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $1.85M, $624 PTA, $100.66M cume
9. Push (Summit) - $1.75M, $757 PTA, $14.14M cume
10. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $1.36M, $833 PTA, $80.75M cume
11. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $1.34M, $584 PTA, $123.48M cume
12. The Uninvited (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $1.1M, $610 PTA, $20.46M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 4-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Friday the Thirteenth (Warner Bros) - $51.25M, $16,506 PTA, $55.25M cume
2. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) - $23.9M, $7,528 PTA, $59.36M cume
3. Taken (Fox) - $23.8M, $7,655 PTA, $82.47M cume
4. NEW – Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) - $19.25M, $7,679 PTA, $19.25M cume
5. Coraline (Focus) - $19.1M, $8,233 PTA, $39.33M cume
6. NEW – The International (Sony) - $12.6M, $5,371 PTA, $12.6M cume
7. Pink Panther 2 (Sony) - $10.75M, $3,313 PTA, $24.07M cume
8. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $9.25M, $3,120 PTA, $108.06M cume
9. Push (Summit) - $8.5M, $3,675 PTA, $20.89M cume
10. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $6.2M, $3,794 PTA, $85.59M cume
11. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $5.9M, $2,562 PTA, $128.04M cume
12. The Uninvited (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $4.95M, $2,745 PTA, $24.31M cume

I had the highest 10 top total and it looks like I'll be 40M off

Wow, Paul Blart crosses the $100 million barrier. And I STILL don't have a review for it...

As Jon Lovitz's old cartoon critic would say "It Stinks"

I'm still kicking myself for choosing The Uninvited instead of Taken, but having the top two movies from Friday makes me feel better. Having avoided Flopaholic and The International helps too.

Friday The 13th did awesome business yesterday, no surprise there, but I wonder if those 4-day estimates will hold. I expect that He's Just Not Into You will have a big bump on Valentine's Day, and I don't really see that reflected in the 4-Day estimates. I read somewhere that 80% of last weekend's audience for HJNIY was female, so I expect a lot of couples will be seeing it for the first time today.

Box Office Guru, MSN, and some others are predicting $19 million for it, so I'm thinking

$19 million Friday
$16 million Saturday
$11 million Sunday
$6 million Monday

$52 million

Has a film ever benefited for a release date more than Friday the 13th?

It's a great escapism for the non-Valentine's day movie-goers skipping the rom-com's. The Saw films never did this kind of business. Now there's only thing that can happen every single 80's horror franchise is going into remake mode. Yeah, we know about the Nightmare on Elm Street remake will definitely get fast tracked so it can come out in 2010. What's next we've seen Halloween, Friday the 13th & Nightmare is on the way? Not to mention TCM a few years ago. How about reviving Scream or updating it? I heard a rumor about a sequel but who knows.

A slasher horror film going to gross 100 million didn't think we'd ever see that happen. 75-80 million, yeah but over 100. 52 in 4 days even at a 50+% drop in its second weekend it should be very close if not over 80 million by its second weekend.

Holy shit great numbers for Friday The 13th glad i had on all of my slates.

Shrykespeare wrote:Wow, Paul Blart crosses the $100 million barrier. And I STILL don't have a review for it...

It hasn't been releasedv over here yet, so I know we are not to blame for this monstrosity. And it also gives me an excuse as to why I haven't reviewed it. Although I won't anyway...

johnErle wrote:I'm still kicking myself for choosing The Uninvited instead of Taken, but having the top two movies from Friday makes me feel better. Having avoided Flopaholic and The International helps too.

Friday The 13th did awesome business yesterday, no surprise there, but I wonder if those 4-day estimates will hold. I expect that He's Just Not Into You will have a big bump on Valentine's Day, and I don't really see that reflected in the 4-Day estimates. I read somewhere that 80% of last weekend's audience for HJNIY was female, so I expect a lot of couples will be seeing it for the first time today.

You're already calling Confessions Of A Shopaholic a flop? Though it had a fourth place finish on opening day, it should get a boost for today and it will benefit from a lack of competition for the next three weeks. Two chick flicks released together can co-exist. It's happened before.

The only way that the film could be a flop is if Jerry Bruckheimer spent $75-80 million on it. After all, he needed that much to make Barfly meets Dirty Dancing. (Coyote Ugly. Even with a nearly unknown cast and a first-time director, it still cost $80 million to make.)

I don't know if Friday the 13th can get to $100 million. Cloverfield opened to $40 million and just barely missed out on a 2 multiple. And this has Valentine's Day on its opening weekend. I think it will fall over 70% next weekend.

I kept Confessions on both of my round 2 box office slates. So, hopefully it has a good multiplier, and I think it can earn enough to be worth the $12 I spent.

Speaking of Flops, Under the Sea 3D only made $100,000 on Friday in 49 theaters for a PTA of 2,040. Two Lovers got 20,900 in 6 theaters for a PTA of 3,483. Both of those trail Friday the 13th's 6,135 PTA Friday. MovieCityNews has the stats on the limited release films.

Oh Shit! Under the Sea 3D flopped? Damn, just on Friday I changed Gomorrah for it in one of my leagues, which I can now say is probably a big mistake (I needed the extra $3 dollars for another pick).

Don't worry, these IMAX films are legs films. Things will pick up as soon as they drop theatres.

Box Office Mojo's early projections:

Top 5

1. Friday the 13th
2. He's Just Not That Into You
3. Taken
4. Confessions of a Shopaholic
5. Coraline

PTA

1. Gomorrah
2. Friday the 13th
3. Under the Sea 3D
4. Coraline
5. The Class

The top 12 is only an estimated $168,127,000, not the egregious $195M as previously projected.

JackO wrote:The top 12 is only an estimated $168,127,000, not the egregious $195M as previously projected.

Yeah, but I bet the $168M is for the normal 3 day weekend and the $195M is for the 4 day weekend including President's Day on Monday.

Spectre wrote:

JackO wrote:The top 12 is only an estimated $168,127,000, not the egregious $195M as previously projected.

Yeah, but I bet the $168M is for the normal 3 day weekend and the $195M is for the 4 day weekend including President's Day on Monday.

That would make sense.

Taken is really kicking ass! Just a 7% drop from this week. Though it's not really helping me that much, it's been helping me create good excuses to continue running it on three screens of SimCinema at leesmovieinfo.com (I've also got two screens of Friday the 13th, Confessions Of A Shopaholic, He's Just Not That Into You and two Best Picture nominees among others).

I checked out that game and it actually looks pretty interesting.