Tracking President's Day Holiday

RS 2/13

FRIDAY: Low 30's (4)
CONFESSIONS: Mid 20's (4)
INTERNATIONAL : Very High Teens (4)

Future
WATCHMEN: Mid 40's (It claims that teens - 34 males are extremely excited for it, but low awareness for outside that key demo, MTC for what it's worth doesn't see anything less than a 300 opening at this time, advance sales begin 2/13)
FIRED UP: Between 9-11
STREET FIGHTER: Mid Single Digits
MADEA: Mid 20's
JONAS: High 20's

I wouldn't be surprised if Street Fighter outright bombed. I haven't even seen anything for it other than a poster (even Miss March seems to be getting a bigger push).

Meanwhile, I still can't see Fired Up opening that well. I mean, the last film produced by a magazine that made money was National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation. (Some may say Van Wilder but National Lampoon ceased to be a magazine in 1994 and since then has become a brand name on films such as Pledge This, Dorm Daze and Gold Diggers*.)


*-not the Christina Ricci adventure film but a comedy that lasted a week in theatres with Eric from Boy Meets World

I think Friday the 13th's opening will be boosted by extreme frontloading due to 3 holidays on opening weekend.

As I say every weekend (and Paul Blart, Taken, and He's Just Not That Into You all proved it true), MTC bigger than RS means go higher than MTC. Watchmen at 300 numbers at MTC is big.

Three holidays? I thought it was just Valentine's Day (Saturday) and President's Day (Monday), unless you're including Friday the 13th (not a holiday).

I just can't see Watchmen doing a 300-like opening. I think Watchmen does not have that broad appeal, people who'd never heard of 200 as a graphic novel were interested due to the trailer which was bad ass. Watchmen's trailers don't really interest people who've never heard of it before, at least from the people I've talked to about it.

I think you have to be a movie person or someone who's read the graphic novel to want to rush out and see Watchmen.

Actually, I think that Watchmen has more appeal than 300. The graphic novel is more well known and the trailer reveals more than 300's did. But also I really didn't understand the appeal of 300's trailer since all it seemed to show was slow-motion shots of people falling off cliffs and people screaming. Made it seem like Vincent Gallo or Gus Van Sant on a bad day attempting to make an action film.

I dunno, I had never heard of Watchmen before I saw the trailer last summer, and that teaser looked really interesting. (Not so much with the newer trailers, oddly enough.)

I'm not just saying this because I read the graphic novel twice & loved it. (It's a genius piece of literature).

That trailer is great, Zack Snyder is building a name for himself (300, Dawn of the Dead). It might lack a conventional Hollywood star power but everything has been talking about this movie. The buzz is real high. I'd be shocked at a sub-50 opening. And it's going to hold tremendously for its first month - six weeks. It's the only blockbuster until Wolverine (now in late April). Roughly six full weeks to rack in it's domestic gross.

Whatever movie is anyone really looking forward to prior to Wolverine? Nothing. The theaters will pack in first with the comic book fans / fanboys, the average / weekly moviegoers that go for the biggest release of the weekend. The reviews I'm expecting to be marvelous & then it'll bring in the skeptics or casual movie fans. Repeat business galore.

Opening weekend prediction: 55-60

Domestic Gross Prediction: 275-300

Worldwide Cume Prediction: 500-550

Excellent catch about Wolverine changing dates nycguy. For everyone else, here's the link/story:

Wolverine moving to April 29th!

However his suggestion that there were no other blockbuster movies before Wolverine was very wrong. Monsters Vs. Aliens will definitely be blockbuster, while Race To Witch Mountain also has a very good chance of joining it. If Watchmen gets close to his estimate it will likely be the No.3 movie of the year, I don't see that at all, especially at this time of year, no matter how much I love it.

275 is too high, but I definitely think $200-$220 is doable

I think Watchmen will do 160-190 it will be big but not 200 mill big.

I'm with you Tranny. I have it pegged around 180 myself.

Its weird that Wolverine copied Iron Man 2's release date move, and that hasn't even come out yet.

Also, with all of the talk about having several January-April movies hitting the $100 million mare this year, I guess Wolverine technically makes one more!

@SilverSurfer19 - How does Watchmen grossing 275-300 make it the third biggest film of the year? We have Transformers 2, Wolverine, Star Trek, Harry Potter, & Avatar aren't all of these in the 300 million gross conversation or am I wrong about this?

Transformers 2 will sail past 300, Wolverine should match Iron Man's box office, Star Trek is the wild card 200 million easy just by the Trekkies but there's a very strong shot for 300 if the casual fans come to it, all of the Harry Potters are north of 275 so 300 wouldn't be out of the question even though there's always the talks about the latter Potter films dropping in box office totals with the absence of the book releases, and who knows how the 200 million dollar Avatar will go.

I think you are greatly overestimating Star Trek's chances nycguy. I don't even think it will break 150. Transformers 2 and Harry Potter should break 300. I think that Wolverine might get their, but only just. Terminator has a very outside shot. Other than that I see some films floating between 180 and 280, with Watchmen at the low end of that spectrum. Just due to its release date and I just don't get the same buzz that 300 had. I mean, I'm personally ecstatic to see it. I read the book just because of it. But, I don't know that that is going to translate well across all quadrants. I can't see too many girlfriends being dragged to see this one. That said, I have it in my top 10 grossers of the year. Just not near 275.

Wolverine will not hit $300 million. The trailer makes the film look like a campier version of Ang Lee's The Hulk (Wolverine in the Civil War? Liev Schreiber as the villain? And I bet that there is a lot more camp that the trailer isn't showing us.). Comic book fans have not responded well to characters going campy. It will be lucky to hit $200 million.

Nycguy84 wrote:@SilverSurfer19 - How does Watchmen grossing 275-300 make it the third biggest film of the year? We have Transformers 2, Wolverine, Star Trek, Harry Potter, & Avatar aren't all of these in the 300 million gross conversation or am I wrong about this?

Transformers 2 will sail past 300, Wolverine should match Iron Man's box office, Star Trek is the wild card 200 million easy just by the Trekkies but there's a very strong shot for 300 if the casual fans come to it, all of the Harry Potters are north of 275 so 300 wouldn't be out of the question even though there's always the talks about the latter Potter films dropping in box office totals with the absence of the book releases, and who knows how the 200 million dollar Avatar will go.

Transformers is the only certainty for $300m. Harry Potter should get close. Having seen the Wolverine trailer a number of times now, and still not gaining any motivation for it (besides a cool Gambit appearance), as well as the bad word of mouth following X-3, I just don't see anything matching Iron Man, which benefitted from excellent word of mouth. Avatar doesn't come out till the end of the year, only having 2 weeks in play. No chance of $300m, though I think it may have a shot at $250m after its total run, helped largely by the inflated ticket prices of 3-D. Star Trek? I'm really not sure on this one. It looks great, but this is Star Trek, notorious for not very big box office takings. If you think the movie can generate $200m from Trekkies alone, you are very misguided, no Star Trek movie has ever even surpassed $110m, so I don't see where all these Trekkies have suddenly appeared from. However, going by the look of the trailer, I think it will bring in a few more casual viewers. I hope it can pass the $250m mark, but I'm not sure on it.

I can't see Wolverine getting more than $240 million, considering that X3 got $234 million. Star Trek has a bad release date (the one weekend in May-1st half of August where $100 million movies don't normally occur), and everything else silvey said. I'm thinking $110-120 million. Angels and Demons $115 million, Terminator Salvation $275 million, NatM2 $150 million, Up $210 million.

The first Night At The Museum made around $240 million.

We all know Transformers 2 sails past 300, Potter will be in the vicinity.

But the consensus for Wolverine is 250 max. I don't know what others are seeing but Wolverine doesn't look campy at all. I think Wolverine should play similar to Iron Man opening the summer very strong, 110-125 million 5 day opening with Wednesday bow.

Star Trek on the other hand I see getting to 200 with no problem unless the casual fans don't buy into it. And unless the competition of May becomes too daunting to have a 300 million come out of it. Wolverine (now in April but mostly a May release), T4, Star Trek, Night at the Museum, & Angels & Demons (on the lower end of the list). I'm looking at five 200 million grossers. Wolverine getting the closest to 300 & I still Star Trek has that chance also it could surprise lots of people that are tracking it at the 200 range. This is not coming from a Trekkie I never watched the show but when I caught the trailer in front of Quantum of Solace I thought wow that looks pretty cool.

Any word from Mase yet?

Not yet. I'll be checking every hour or so today, and will post his column the minute I see it.

I really hope Mase puts up some numbers, if only to see how he thinks Shopaholic will perform.

We won't have 5 $200 million movies in May. I don't think we've ever had 5 $100 million movies in May.

And yes, Night at the Museum did make $251 million. And yes, The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian did make less than half what its predecessor made (the first one came out in December, and the second one in May.) Lets face it, things like Marley and Me, Alvin and the Chipmucks, NatM, National Treasure 2, etc. would have made what they did in the summer.