SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILM(!) OF 10/9 - Couples Retreat, plus: Top Ten Most Anticipated Films of Winter

Hats off to Zombieland, for taking in nearly $25 million and ending Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs’ “rain” at the top. On a weekend that was originally supposed to have heralded Martin Scorsese’s Shutter Island, it was two comedies that held sway over the rest of the field, which singularly failed to impress in any way. As we soldier into the heart of October, what will these mean as far as box office trends go?

Well, October, along with the changing of the colors of the leaves, typically represents a “changing of the guard”, as we slowly make the transition from summer blockbusters and post-summer throwaways into Oscar season. October is where you will start seeing the majority of films that will be vying for little gold statuettes come next spring. It also, of course, has its usual mix of crowd-pleasers and faux crowd-pleasers, including adult comedies and horror flicks.

The weekend of October 9th has all of one wide-release film to talk about, believe it or not. I don’t remember the last time this was the case (early January?), but given the cast and appeal factor of this film, I would say an opening weekend windfall is more than likely. This movie is called Couples Retreat, and it will be bowing in well over 3,000 theaters come Friday.

Retreat stars A-list comic actor Vince Vaughn, making his fourth consecutive winter release (though it’s the first since The Break-Up to not have a “Christmas” theme). But even though his name is above the title, make no mistake: this is very much an ensemble piece, as evidenced by the fact that there are no less than nine actors listed on the movie’s poster, including: Jason Bateman (State of Play, Extract), Jon Favreau (I Love You, Man), Kristin Davis (Sex and the City), Malin Akerman (Watchmen), Kristen Bell (Forgetting Sarah Marshall), Jean Reno (Pink Panther 2), Kali Hawk and Faizon Love.

The story: Jason and Cynthia (Bateman and Bell) decide to travel to the luxurious tropical-island Eden Resort in order to save their flagging marriage. They also invite their friends, who are all married couples, along for the ride. What the friends don’t realize, however, is that the resort is not merely a resort, but a place specifically designed to counsel couples in need, and therefore they must partake of the various therapy sessions in order to stay there. And these three previously-content, previously-happy couples begin to realize that their respective relationships are not as rock-solid as they thought.

This film was originally supposed to be rated R, but now it is rated PG-13, so I’m guessing that some of the bawdier bits were removed or re-shot. Whether this results in a drop in quality, we may never know, but given that Retreat is living on the October 9th island all by itself, I’m betting it will result in higher numbers than an R rating would have delivered.

Interesting, isn’t it, that the four films that will likely take the top four spots this weekend are all comedies, huh? But when you think about it, the four films couldn’t be more different. It is this variety that will make these comedies complement each other rather than siphon each other’s audience away. Another thing that might help is that there won’t really be any comedies for a good long while after this, so keep that in mind.

Couples Retreat will run you a very hefty $17 in both Ultimate and Box Office leagues. The fact that it may dominate its OW makes it a very tempting pick but be wary. I think it will pull in no less than eleven Top 5 points, three PTA and a decent User Rating, but it will take some doing to get to $80 million in total receipts, and I think I would want to be sure of that before I spent the dough, especially in Box Office. Consider that two November picks, Old Dogs and The Princess and the Frog, are available for virtually the same amount, and those films have much rosier prospects.


My predictions for the weekend of October 9-11, 2009:

1. Couples Retreat - $28 million
2. Zombieland - $14 million
3. Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs - $10 million
4. Surrogates - $4 million
5. The Invention of Lying - $3 million


I’ve got more room left than I typically do, so I’ll fill the space with something I haven’t done in a while: out of the roughly twenty-plus films that I’m interested in seeing between now and New Years’, it was rather tough to pick just which ten I’m interested in seeing the most. But after minutes of deep thought, here are my Top Ten (actually, Eleven) picks for the Most Anticipated Films of October-December 2009.

10. (tie) The Blind Side (11/20) – FINALLY, a Sandra Bullock movie that I actually want to see. I’m honestly don’t think there’s been a film with Ms. B in the leading role that has really caught my eye since the first Miss Congeniality movie (and in that case, only just). This “based on true events” sports drama looks well-acted, well-written, and miles more watchable than fluff like The Proposal and dreck like All About Steve.

10. (tie) The Men Who Stare at Goats (11/6) – Clooney, McGregor, Spacey AND Bridges? How could one not be intrigued? Yeah, the premise looks very “out there” – even Coen Bros.-ish. But besides having the single most bizarre title of any movie that’s come out this year, the trailer looks funny as hell. And of the whopping THREE winter films starring Handsome George, this one looks the most enjoyable.

9. The Fourth Kind (11/6) – There are many variations of horror, but this one is definitely my favorite kind: the tense, taut horror/thriller where the threat is less tangible, more perceptual than in most films in this genre. Based on true events and starring Resident Evil vamp Milla Jovovich, Fourth Kind looks cut from the same cloth as the very underrated Mothman Prophecies.

8. Did You Hear About the Morgans? (12/11) – My profile page describes my humor as “primarily droll, sarcastic British wit”, and there are few movie comedians that epitomize that sentiment than Hugh Grant. His characters, usually dim-witted or severely morally compromised fops, often toe the line between overbearing and charming, but he does it with flair. And this title, where he and estranged wife Sarah Jessica Parker take their marital feud (via the witness protection program) all the way to backwoods Wyoming, could be a holiday hit.

7. Ninja Assassin (11/25) – Yeah, I know, ninjas are soooooo 1980’s, aren’t they? Two decades ago, you had more “ninja” movies than you could shake a stick at. Some (not many) were even good (but not great). And honestly, I don’t know if the next decade will see a resurgence in ninja movies, but all I had to see in the trailer from this movie was the fact that it is directed by James McTiegue, who helmed the phenomenal V For Vendetta three years ago. That’s all I need to know.

6. The Lovely Bones (12/11) – given its release platform, I probably won’t be seeing Peter Jackson’s latest until January, but that doesn’t mean I’m anticipating it any less. His first directorial project since the overblown King Kong remake, this adaptation of the Alice Sebold novel looks to seamlessly blend the tragic realness of a brutal murder of a young girl, the mystery of the investigation that follows, and the stunning visual imagery of the “in-between” dreamscape that the girl finds herself in, in a way that only the man who helmed the magnificent Lord of the Rings trilogy can.

5. Law Abiding Citizen (10/16) – I’ve seen two Gerard Butler movies in the last three months. I am truly hoping that with Citizen, he can finish the year 1-for-3. My lone pick for October looks to be one of the last pure action/dramas of the year, and the fact that it co-stars Jamie Foxx and is helmed by F. Gary Gray, who directed the fun The Italian Job in 2003 (is that damn sequel EVER gonna get filmed?) makes it even more enticing.

4. Sherlock Holmes (12/25) – You know, it just occurred to me that I’ve NEVER actually seen a Guy Ritchie-directed movie in the theater. What I have seen of his work, which up to this point has been mostly gritty-but-cool heist movies, has been on either DVD or late-night cable. (The less said about his cinematic collaborations with his ex, the better.) I love detective stories, and there is no more famous or iconic detective that has ever been created than Holmes. There are few American actors that I would trust with this role, and Robert Downey Jr. is one of them. Could this be Ritchie’s first ever blockbuster? I think it just might be.

3. Invictus (12/11) – This is a huge good-faith pick, to be sure, as I have seen little more for this movie than a two-sentence description and a few still photos, but it’s Clint Eastwood. After last year’s excellent Changeling and the truly incredible Gran Torino (which marked Clint’s supposed swan song as an actor), this story, with Unforgiven co-star Morgan Freeman playing Nelson Mandela, needs very little hype to make me want to see it. Though with two months to go before release, just a GLIMMER would be nice…

2. Avatar (12/18) – James Cameron. The man who brought to life some of the most memorable sci-fi/action films of the 1980s and early 1990s, including Aliens, The Abyss, True Lies and, of course, the first two Terminator films, achieved near-legendary status with 1997’s Titanic. This film broke, no, shattered the record for biggest box-office hit ever, and walked off with just about every Oscar it was nominated for. But since becoming “king of the world”, Cameron has relegated himself to mostly doing documentaries for the big and small screens. There will probably be no film this winter that is scrutinized as heavily as Avatar, which marks Cameron’s first really huge project since the big boat sank. The film, which blends both live-action and animated scenes, could possibly be the winter’s biggest success or its biggest failure. And given how underwhelming the response was to the first trailer, if it were any other director, I’d probably be more worried. I, however, still can’t wait.

1. The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus (12/25) – To call director Terry Gilliam’s filmography scattershot would be an understatement. The former Monty Python alum has had hits (The Fisher King, Twelve Monkeys) and misses (The Brothers Grimm), and if he has one major fault, it’s that his reach sometimes exceeds his grasp. That being said, no one will EVER call him unambitious. The man has never, and will never, cut corners when it comes to set design, costume design and visual imagery (he’s right up there near Guillermo Del Toro in that regard), and his latest project seems to be in keeping with that balls-out philosophy. Whether Dr. Parnassus is another escapade of style over substance remains to be seen, but given my slack-jawed reaction to the film’s trailer, I say: “Who cares?” People will want to see it for one reason only: it’s the last film Heath Ledger will ever appear in. (Plus, having names like Johnny Depp, Jude Law and Colin Farrell sure won’t hurt.) Regrettably, I’ll probably have to wait until January to see this one as well, but I’m betting it will be well worth the wait.


And now, my Top Three LEAST Anticipated Films of October-December:

3. The Twilight Saga: New Moon (11/20) – I really didn’t want to see the first Twilight movie, but when you’re married to a woman who loves romances and adores vampire films, what can you do? I was honestly anticipating hating the movie, but I didn’t. It was overly long, yes, but the panoramic shots of the Pacific Northwest were gorgeous (and the vampire baseball scene was really cool). The main problem, I’m guessing, is that the target demographic are females one-third my age, which puts it pretty far out of my wheelhouse. And I don’t care if my wife threatens me with a week of couch-sleeping, she can go see the sequel with her girlfriends.

2. Old Dogs (11/25) – Old guy finds out from ex-girlfriend/fling/one-night-stand that he is a daddy, and spends the next ninety minutes trying to bond with the fruit of his indiscreet loins. Will there be a camping trip? To quote Sarah Palin, “You betcha!” How about a disastrous trip to the zoo? Naturally! All this from the guy who brought you Wild Hogs, one of the least deserving blockbusters of all time. I’m sorry, but watching John Travolta and Robin Williams get attacked by penguins, a gorilla and Matt Dillon (the last two are interchangeable) is not my idea of comedy. And to quote Will Smith in I, Robot: “Oh, hell, no.”

1. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel (12/25) – It still boggles my mind how the first Alvin movie topped $200 million at the box office. Kids will watch almost anything that looks cute, but are they really that entranced by sped-up, high-pitched cover versions of classic pop songs? Well, given the obscenely large turnout in 2007, the short would seem to be “Duh, dumbass.” And now that the sequel’s out? Well, now I don’t care about this franchise twice as much as I didn’t care before… if that makes sense. I listened to the Christmas Album once when I was nine years old. That was enough. Ugh.


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, my plate will be slightly more full than it was this week, as I will have three films to talk about, all of which will hit theaters the week of October 16th: Where the Wild Things Are, Spike Jonze’s adaptation of the classic children’s book by Maurice Sendak; Law Abiding Citizen, starring Gerard Butler as a man who goes on the rampage against the legal system that failed to put away the men who murdered his family; and The Stepfather, a horror movie starring Penn Badgley as a guy who returns home to find his mother living with a man who seems to have a very sinister secret.

Later!

Heh. "Rain" at the top.

I don't like that they cut CR down to a PG-13, if anything, the past couple of years has proven that R-rated comedy can do just as well.

The movie is a pretty hard PG-13, what i heard is that the only thing that was really cut was language.

I'm surprised about the PG-13 rating too, especially since the trailer is full of dick jokes. Looks like Funny People exhausted the dick joke to the point where dicks aren't shocking anymore.

Hopefully next, we will see PG rated movies with boobies (seriously, I don't consider that nudity).

I was watching an episode of Midsomer Murders the other day and it had a full frontal nude shot of a young lady who was posing for an art class. I suppose when not in context you can get away with anything, even on a prime time family programme.

umm.... first of all, boobies? and second of all, why?

A woman's chest is the same as a man's chest. They totally have the right to go topless.

If the 300 Spartans can bare their chests in their movie with no problem, then so should, say, the girls in G.I. Joe. It's a double standard.

Yep, exactly the same as a man's chest. Nothing biologically different at all. What should I expect from boobie boy

A chest is a chest. An ass is an ass. The only thing different is a cock and a muff.

And you obviously live in your own world so its pointless to try and argue logic with you. Keep on begging for those NC-17 movies so you can see some boobies anywhere outside of the internet.

Wow Geez, the Banned in Boston law has really fucked you up.

Blame our stupid Puritanical forefathers who were so scared of naked people they sailed across maybe the biggest body of water on the fucking planet.

Buscemi wrote:Wow Geez, the Banned in Boston law has really fucked you up.

Just like the ignorant ass you are, thinking that Boston comprises the entire state of Massachusetts. I don't even know what you are talking about, but I'm not the one begging for boobies in their pg movies. God I hope you never have children. For so many reasons. God have mercy on their poor souls if you do.

Correction: Boston does comprise the entire state of Massachusetts. Everything else is just a shield.

"Can you milk a Buscemi?"

"You can milk anything with nipples."

There's nothing wrong with liking tits.

They're big and round, they're all around.

Womens' tits, just to specify.

Yeah, that's the direction I wanted the discussion to take...

How about this: What are YOUR most anticipated movies from now till New Years??

Law Abiding Citizen
A Christmas Carol
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Avatar
Creation

Movies I'm looking forward too:

The Imaginarium Of Dr. Parnassus
The Wolfman
[REC]2
Away We Go
A Serious Man
Mary And Max
Where The Wild Things Are
Zombieland
Under The Mountain
Avatar
Sherlock Holmes
The Princess And The Frog
The Lovely Bones

Also those which are not being released in NZ until the new year:

The Girl With The Dragon Tatoo
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Box

EDIT: Add The Road and The Men Who Stare At Goats too, no release date for us yet though...

10. The Men Who Stare at Goats
9. The Road
8. The Blind Side
7. The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
6. Avatar
5. Law Abiding Citizen
4. A Christmas Carol
3. Where the Wild Things Are
2. Sherlock Holmes
1. Boondock Saints 2

Here is a quick top 5 - I could list a bunch of stuff I'm interested in based on cast, or buzz, or what not, but here is the top 5 films I want to see before the end of the year that I have actually seen the trailer for [no specific order]:

The Road
The Lovely Bones
Where The Wild Things Are
A Serious Man
Avatar

In no order:

Law Abiding Citizen
Where The Wild Things Are
New Moon
Ninja Assassin
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
Good Hair
Up In The Air
Precious
Brothers
It's Complicated
Sherlock Holmes
The Lovely Bones
Boondock Saints 2