RS tracking for Thanksgiving 5-day

5 Day:
4 CHRISTMASES: Mid 30's
Transporter 3: Low 20's
Australia: High Teens

Future:

Punisher 2: Between 6-9
Seven Pounds: Low 20's
Tale of Despereaux: Between 9-12
Day Earth: High 30's
Yes Man: Mid 20's

Awareness is the critical issue for everything but Day which is tracking especially well with male teens. Other than awareness, Seven Pounds is actually tracking well with adult women and 35+. So if anything that's probably being lowballed by RS.

Great number for Four Christmases. Shockingly low for Australia, but that was always going to make it's money over-seas.

Also good for future releases Seven Pounds and Yes Man, and fantastic for The Day The Earth Stood Still.

PS: I know JackO usually does these, but i'm just getting the ball rolling is all.

Here are the weekend warriors guesstimates...


1. Twilight (Summit) – $44.8 / 31.7 million -55%

2. Bolt (Disney) - $32.8 / 24 million N/A -11%

3. Four Christmases (New Line/WB) – $32.1 / 22.8 million N/A

4. Quantum of Solace (Sony) – $24.5 / 17.2 million -37%

5. Australia (20th Century Fox) – $22.6 / 15.7 million N/A

6. Transporter 3 (Lionsgate) – $18.2 / 11.5 million N/A

7. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (DreamWorks) - $17.3 / 12.8 million -20%

8. Role Models (Universal) - $8.7 / 6.1 million -16%

9. Changeling (Universal) - $2.6 / 1.9 million -32%

10. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.3 / 1.6 million +160%


I think Twilight will at least have a 60% drop, if not more.... Sex and the City had a 62% drop, HSM had a 63% drop, and HM had a 66% drop... I think these are the movies most comparable. I hope he's right about Transporter 3, then my bankrupts slate will be looking pretty good

I think Australia and Transporter will probably switch spots.

Very good number for Bolt as well. Just goes to show how important Thanksgiving is to family films.

Also, i agree about Twilight, would be very surprised if it dropped anything less than 60% for the three-day.

I agree Barca. I think the tracking numbers are getting overinflated a bit for Transporter 3 with the holiday and all. It does though, look to take a serious bite out of Bond.

This is supposed to be the busiest box office weekend of the year, and with gas prices dropping I just don't see a big drop for Twilight "this weekend". I could be wrong, but a 60% drop on a big buzz, fad film just isn't in the cards. You guys really think it's going to do less than $28M?

I do agree Barca, that Transporter will swap with Australia. Kidman is cash repellent

Synestro wrote:This is supposed to be the busiest box office weekend of the year, and with gas prices dropping I just don't see a big drop for Twilight "this weekend". I could be wrong, but a 60% drop on a big buzz, fad film just isn't in the cards. You guys really think it's going to do less than $28M?

I do agree Barca, that Transporter will swap with Australia. Kidman is cash repellent

It's got nothing to do with prices mate, it's just that because of all the crazy fangirls, it was EXTREMELY frontloaded. Twilight is the ONLY movie ever to make more than 50% of it's OW from it's opening day, that's gotta tell you something about how the audience skews on this one.

AAaaahhh. Now that IS something to chew on.

Synestro wrote:AAaaahhh. Now that IS something to chew on.

Vampire speak?

BarcaRulz wrote:
It's got nothing to do with prices mate, it's just that because of all the crazy fangirls, it was EXTREMELY frontloaded. Twilight is the ONLY movie ever to make more than 50% of it's OW from it's opening day, that's gotta tell you something about how the audience skews on this one.

Barca is 100% right on this one. Twilight has a limit in terms of audience (i.e. men 25+ will not go to this, and it's not a family film), and repeat viewings will only go so far. This film will have a 50% plus drop, probably bigger.

I think Twilight will hold up a little better than expected as there will be many girls coming home from college/prep school for the holiday weekend that may not have rushed out to see it opening weekend. The girl that went to the sneak preview with my wife has now seen it 5 times. I'm trying to find the name of a good therapist for her.

I don't know. I don't see it falling off completely. Ofcourse, it will cliff dive on Friday but it shouldn't be down more than fifty percent on Saturday or Sunday because it already dropped forty percent on both days last week, especially with the inflated market now that school is out. I think it'll be down around sixty percent tops over the three-day weekend. My money is on it to win the Thanksgiving weekend, although Four Christmases has come on strong in the tracking. Could be very close.

Mason says it's going to have a 72% drop but I can't see that happening with the weekday numbers it is putting up. It would have to have zero increase on Friday for Mase's predicts to come true. Notfabio reported it went UP 20% yesterday.

JackO wrote:Mason says it's going to have a 72% drop but I can't see that happening with the weekday numbers it is putting up. It would have to have zero increase on Friday for Mase's predicts to come true. Notfabio reported it went UP 20% yesterday.

Everything is going to go UP on Tuesday. Kids have holidays now, and that will be especially great for Bolt which will be most families number 1 movie to go see.

Twilight will get good weekday numbers this week because all the fangirls are out of school, but it will have a shoddy weekend, unless repeat viewings are beyond what anyone would expect.

I think that Twilight will have about a 40% drop.

I still believe it'll win the weekend with maybe 5 million separating it from Four Christmases.

I'm not an expert, just guessing.

Plus, there are still sellouts of it, according to the other thread.

HSX

1. Twilight 632 K
2. Four Christmases 396 K
3. Bolt 395 K

Transporter 3 192 K
Australia 135 K

These are relative for his chain.

Wednesday Numbers!

Twilight - 7.9 M
Four Christmases - 5.9 M
Bolt - 5.1 M
Quantum of Solace - 4.1 M
Transporter 3 - 3.3 M
Madagascar 2 - 2.7 M
Australia - 2.5 M

Milk - 275,000 = 8,000+ PTA

It seems Nikki Finke was way off on Milk.

http://www.ercboxoffice.com/

According to Hollywood Elsewhere: Twilight is going pwn Thanksgiving

I wrote down the weekend projections on a yellow pad as they were told to me over the phone, but then the banshees of the Fifth Dimension flew in and took the pad away. But I remember one thing clearly. Twilight is the #1 ass-kicker of the Thanksgiving holiday with about $37.5 million expected for the upcoming 3-day weekend and $55 million projected for the entire five days.

Ouch for the doom and gloomers.

Damn I really needed 4 Christmases to win this weekend, but there's just no stopping Twilight.

DHD actually is projecting 4 Christmases to win it now, but it will be close either way.

From Darling Nikki

$9m 4 CHRISTMASES
$5.3m TWILIGHT
$4.5m 007
$4.2m BOLT
$2.9m AUSTRALIA

Those are Thursday estimates. That Four Christmases numbers is amazing. Also good for pretty much all other movies as well. Even Australia held well.

Now the question is, will the Friday increase act like Enchanted (110+%) or Christmas with the Kranks (52%), so far, the Thursday increase for Four makes it seem like it will act like Kranks, which had a slight Friday increase, a minuscule drop of Saturday, and a 50% drop on Sunday to a 21 M 3 day. I don't think Four is going to drop as hard on Sunday though.

(8.9 Thurs) 13.5 Friday(+52%), 13.014 Saturday (-3.6%), 7.808 Sunday (-40%) = 34.322M 3 Day

That would put it near Enchanted, in terms of gross, for Thanksgiving openers. That's pretty good. I don't know what I could compare Twilight too though.

Brief Friday Estimates via DHD:

SATURDAY EARLY AM: There are wide spreads for very early Friday numbers from my sources... 1. New Line/Warner Bros' Four Christmases $12.5M-$12.9M ... 2. Disney's Bolt $11M-$12M ... 3. Summit Entertainment's Twilight $11M-$11.4M ... 4. MGM/Sony's Quantum Of Solace $8M-$8.4M ... 5. 20th Century Fox's Australia $5.5M-$5.8M ...

Bolt has come on very strong. Should be a close fight for number one.

Kompressr wrote:Brief Friday Estimates via DHD:

SATURDAY EARLY AM: There are wide spreads for very early Friday numbers from my sources... 1. New Line/Warner Bros' Four Christmases $12.5M-$12.9M ... 2. Disney's Bolt $11M-$12M ... 3. Summit Entertainment's Twilight $11M-$11.4M ... 4. MGM/Sony's Quantum Of Solace $8M-$8.4M ... 5. 20th Century Fox's Australia $5.5M-$5.8M ...

Bolt has come on very strong. Should be a close fight for number one.

Bolt was always going to barge in this weekend. Great jump. Pretty much good for everything, even Australia.

Anyway, i'm off lad, see you in a couple of days.

Kompressr wrote:Brief Friday Estimates via DHD:

SATURDAY EARLY AM: There are wide spreads for very early Friday numbers from my sources... 1. New Line/Warner Bros' Four Christmases $12.5M-$12.9M ... 2. Disney's Bolt $11M-$12M ... 3. Summit Entertainment's Twilight $11M-$11.4M ... 4. MGM/Sony's Quantum Of Solace $8M-$8.4M ... 5. 20th Century Fox's Australia $5.5M-$5.8M ...

Bolt has come on very strong. Should be a close fight for number one.

Wow! 3 way fight for number 1! Good job Bolt.

Box Office Mojo Fridays estimates

1. Four Christmases - 13.2 M - I kid you not! I was only off a few hundred thousand.
2. Twilight - 11 M
3. Bolt - 10.9M
4. Quantum - 8.2M
5. Madagascar 2 - 5.750 M
6. Australia - 5.735 M
7. Transporter 3 - 4.825 M
8. Role Models - 2.118 M
9. Boy in Striped - 630,000
10. Milk - 500,000 = 14,000+ PTA
11. Slumdog Millionaire - 485,000 = 9,000+ PTA

Finke has been way off this holiday.

I'm only slightly disappointed that Slumdog is going to have another awesome PTA weekend and only pick up 4 points because Milk is massive. Oh well, I expected it. I should just be happy its still going really strong even with the expansion to 49 theaters.