SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 1/23 - Inkheart, Underworld

Since my column tends to be one of the most-read posts on the Boards (I hope), I have some announcements that I’d like to get out of the way in the hopes that they’ll reach the most ears, erm, eyes. We all know that our good friend ashkul is taking some time off from the game in order to concentrate on school. Well, add our good friend and staunch competitor Kompressr to that list, and for the same reason. He has told me that he will hopefully be back in the 2nd half.

An even grimmer set of circumstances, unfortunately, has prompted the premature TFR retirement of another good friend, synestro (aka Brian), who has, regrettably, told me that due to some unforeseen financial circumstances, he is having to discontinue his Internet service in order to save money, which, obviously, will prompt his removal from the Super Leagues and all other ongoing leagues. He says that if his fortunes turn around, he will be back, and to wish the rest of the Fantaverse well.

As to the Super Leagues, at the moment I currently have between 50 and 60 players in all four tournaments, with a few notable names that have told me that they will enter but haven’t yet turned in any lineups: BarcaRulz, codeslinger, and Serra242. I also hope that J.I., jackburton and Tonberry will consider entering, even one week in. The deadline for entry is Friday, January 23rd; if you aren’t in by then, you’ll have to wait until the first week of June to play again. So don’t delay!

And now, on to the business at hand; namely the films of 1/23, and oh, what a bunch of serious Oscar contenders we have here. Okay, that was a pretty barefaced lie, but hey, it’s much harder than you might think to get truly jazzed about a film coming out in January, right?

We’ll start with Inkheart, a fantasy story that is based on a novel by author Cornelia Funke. It is being directed by British helmer Iain Softley (Hackers, K-PAX, The Skeleton Key), and it stars Brendan Fraser, who is coming off a two-blockbuster summer (Mummy 3 and Journey to the Center of the Earth).

This film was originally supposed to be released back in March of last year, but was bumped all the way to January 2009 because Warner Brothers decided that three family actioners starring Fraser would have been overkill. But still, consider the premise: Fraser plays Mortimer “Mo” Folchart, who has the ability to bring to life the characters of various books just by reading them aloud. He shares this ability with his 12-year-old daughter Meggie (Eliza Bennett). But there’s a snag, you see, when a fictional character is brought to life in the real world, a real person disappears into the pages of that book. Things are complicated further when a really bad guy named Capricorn (Andy Serkis) demands that Meggie bring his most powerful ally to life as well.

Bedtime Stories had a very similar premise, and that was less than a month ago, and it had just about every advantage over Inkheart than you can get: a Disney film, a more bankable star (Adam Sandler), and a Christmas release date. But Warner Brothers had a pretty good 2008, so it’s tempting to trust their judgment here.

This is pretty much the only family action/adventure to be found in all of January, so it’s a fair bet to say that Inkheart has a better than average chance at winning its opening weekend, and holding on in the Top 5 for at least one more weekend after that. It’ll run you $18 in the January Ultimate leagues ($17 in Box Office), and if I had to guess, I’d say that $50 million, seven Top 5, three PTA and a User Rating of 6.8 is what this title will bring you.

Inkheart's chief rival for that #1 spot will probably come in the form of Underworld: Rise of the Lycans, the third film in the Underworld trilogy. However, this installment seems to be a prequel, tracking the origins of the centuries-old blood feud between the vampires and their onetime slaves, the Lycans (who are werewolves, if you didn’t know). The story follows a young Lycan named Lucian (Frost/Nixon's Michael Sheen), who rises up against the vampire king Viktor (Valkyrie’s Bill Nighy), joined by his lover Sonja (Rhona Mitra), who happens to be Viktor’s daughter, as they struggle to free their race from slavery.

The original Underworld opened to $21.7 million in September of 2003, and the sequel, Underworld: Evolution, opened to an impressive $26.8 million in January 2006. But now that English beauty Kate Beckinsale has moved onto greener pastures, only to be replaced by Mitra, who seems to be carving out a career as the next Milla Jovovich (not necessarily a GOOD thing, that), leading the way in low-grade horror vehicles such as Skinwalkers and Doomsday.

I shouldn’t have to tell you that “Part Three” in just about any series not previously marketed as a trilogy is where things usually start to go downhill. Now, this film has been marketed fairly well, and it may yet snatch victory from Inkheart's hands, but I doubt it’s final numbers will be any better. Of course, you can obtain it for only half the price ($9 in both leagues), so if you can live with the middling User Rating Rise of the Lycans is almost sure to get, this might be a rare January overachiever for your slate.

I’m not going to waste a lot of space on Possession, since I doubt that many of you have enough faith in this title to actually think it has a chance of success. This is another film that has been postponed more than once, and gone through a name change (it started out being called Addicted), until finally to be summarily plunked into the crappiest month of the year for movies.

In this film, the life of a woman named Jess (Sarah Michelle Gellar) becomes increasingly surreal after a car accident leaves both her husband Ryan (Michael Landes) and her brother-in-law Roman (Pushing Daisies’ Lee Pace) comatose; things then get really weird when Roman wakes up, believing that he is, in fact, Ryan. Ooh, awkward. Jess must try to unravel whether her brother-in-law is delusional, or whether there are supernatural forces at work.

If it sounds like the plot of a bad Asian horror-thriller, you’d be right; this is based on a South Korean film (called Addicted in their native tongue) that was released in 2002. And honestly, if this film actually winds up making $10 million, I would be very surprised. It’s being distributed by Yari Film Group, a studio that has put out subpar crap for years, and just last month filed for bankruptcy. Which means: no advertising, no hype, and probably only a few hundred theaters showing it at the most. Stay far, far away from this one, even if it is only $4 in Ultimate ($3 in Box Office). "Possession" may be nine-tenths of the law, but here it'll just give you one-eighth of nothing. (Grin.)

My prediction for the Top 5:

1. Inkheart - $22 million
2. Underworld: Rise of the Lycans - $19 million
3. Paul Blart: Mall Cop - $11 million
4. Gran Torino - $9 million
5. Hotel For Dogs - $7 million


Well, that will do it for another week. Next week, I’ll talk about three more films, scheduled for release on the final Friday in January: The Uninvited, New in Town and Taken.

Anyone have any preliminary theater counts for this particuliar weekend handy? I can't access certain websites from work, and my home computer is not functioning right now. (Which reminds me, the Super League updates may be a day or two late this week.)

If you tell me where to find them I can look for you...given that it's done in the next half-hour when I'm leaving...

From BOM:

Hotel for Dogs Paramount (DreamWorks) 3,000
Paul Blart: Mall Cop Sony / Columbia 3,000
My Bloody Valentine 3-D Lionsgate 2,300+
Notorious Fox Searchlight 1,600
Defiance Paramount Vantage 1,500 (+1,498)
Last Chance Harvey Overture Films 500+ (+484)
Chandni Chowk to China Warner Bros. 125+

Thanks, surfer, but I actually meant the following weekend, 1/23. I know someone posted that Notorious was going to be in only 1600 theaters a full ten days before it opened, and they were right. That info must've come from a more on-the-ball site than BOM.

A number of theatres will be sneak previewing My Bloody Valentine 3-D on Thursday at 10:00 pm. I wonder if this will help the film like with Iron Man or Transformers or hurt the film like with Poseidon or Snakes On A Plane. I'm convinced that it will hurt the film.

Meanwhile, I can still see Notorious surprising and opening at Number 1 despite being in just 1,600 theatres. I believe I saw that the soundtrack hit Number 1 on the Billboard charts a few days ago. The last two soundtracks to hit Number 1 on the charts were Mamma Mia! and Twilight. Both ended up being hits.

Notorious will not even hit the top 5

You obviously don't even know the appeal for a film like this, Geez.

That's very useful information, Boussh, thanks. But it would take near-sellouts all weekend to beat Paul Blart, I think, which is in nearly double the theaters and has been advertised like a mother-f***er for the last three weeks.

We'll see who is closer to the actual results after the weekend. I see it losing to Paul Blart, Hotel For Dogs, My Bloody Valentine, Gran Torino, Bride Wars and possibly Defiance. That would put it 7th. But hey, what do I know. I suck at predicting movies.

geezer9687 wrote:That would put it 7th. But hey, what do I know. I suck at predicting movies.

As your Super League performances proved. [wink]

Awww, surfer, you beat me to it!

I was going to say, "Yeah, geezer, you suck... like a fox..."

Sorry, Shryke. Should I delete my post just to give you the satisfaction. But then I'd have to delete this post too or that would just confuse people.....

I was really hoping Defiance would hit in over 2000 theaters but I think it still has a shot at for 6-8 M this weekend.

I think it can easily get 10

I was checking FilmJerk.com yesterday and it looks like that Possession had been delayed to TBA 2009. It's no longer listed at January 23rd. Can you say straight-to-video?

Uh... straight to video?

And no, I can't even PRONOUNCE "rhetorical". (ducking)

I was sure that Defiance would have a larger screen count as well, it's being heavily promoted in my area, and Zwick movies usually perform well (his movies generally perform better in foreign territories, but still well in North America). I'm hoping for a good opening with a minimum Blood Diamond style 50/60m total, and the lower screen count could mean it'll earn more PTA points.

Time for me to eat my fair share of crow. I concede Boush. You got this one.

Shrykespeare wrote:Anyone have any preliminary theater counts for this particuliar weekend handy? I can't access certain websites from work, and my home computer is not functioning right now. (Which reminds me, the Super League updates may be a day or two late this week.)

By the way, theatre counts are up for next week:

Underworld 3: Rise of the Lycans: 2,800
Inkheart: 2,400
Slumdog Millionaire: 1,000
Frost/Nixon: 800
Revolutionary Road: 800
The Wrestler: 400
The Dark Knight: 200
Outlander: 80
Killshot: 5