SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 7/1 - Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, Public Enemies

Holy moly. $200 million?! I mean, I knew Transformers was going to open big, but this tops even my wildest expectations… I began to wonder, based on all the negative reviews, whether $400 million was even possible. Now, the only question that remains is, will it have legs, or will it be like Wolverine, which made very nearly half of its total take in its first three days?

One would think that any film debuting the weekend after such a monstrous windfall would almost certainly be doomed to no better than a #2 spot. Well, that may very well be the case for the two films opening on Wednesday, July 1st, but at least one of them will be giving that run for #1 the old college try.

In March 2002, the first Ice Age movie debuted with a respectable $46 million, and finished with $176 million after an impressive six-month run. (Had FM been around then, it would have also earned 18 Top 5 points and nine PTA.) Four years later, Ice Age: The Meltdown came in with over $68 million in its first three days, and fell just shy of $200 million after another six-month run of its own. Now, given that the third installment in the series, Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, is, for the first time, being given a summer release instead of a spring one, will the #1 franchise to come from the brain trust at Sony Pictures Animation be the first to crack that double-blockbuster plateau? It is entirely possible.

If you have watched either of the first two films, you’ll not be surprised to find that Dawn features the continued adventures of our favorite gang of prehistoric creatures: Sid the sloth (John Leguizamo), Diego the saber-toothed tiger (Denis Leary), and woolly mammoths Manny (Ray Romano) and Ellie (Queen Latifah), not to mention our favorite rodent, the acorn-loving-but-never-getting Skrat.

The story: Ellie is expecting hers and Manny’s first child, Diego is becoming restless, and Sid, anxious to start a family of his own, steals some very large eggs in an attempt to become a parent. Unfortunately, the eggs soon hatch into supposedly-extinct dinosaurs, and the gang soon discover a whole “lost world” (please don’t sue me) – in fact, a whole other ecosystem – buried deep under the ice and apparently untouched for millions of years.

Well, if I know this series (and I think I do), many more hijinks will ensue – danger will be confronted and confounded, history will be conveniently rewritten, and there will be enough laughs to keep the kiddies amused…. Though honestly, you could probably get the most laughs at this point by making an entire film about Skrat’s continual exercise in futility, that of getting his beloved acorn, a process now complicated even further by the introduction of a female member of his species (dubbed “Scratte”, groan).

I just don’t know, folks. Much like the Shrek series, I can’t help but wonder how close to being hopelessly played out this series has become. Of course, keep in mind that Shrek the Third, however mediocre it was, still managed to break $300 million. I don’t foresee THAT optimistic a future for Ice Age 3, but it could definitely have the gumption to break $200 million.

Of course, it has the immense benefit of being given a five-day long weekend surrounding the Independence Day holiday, always a terrific weekend for movie-watching. Don’t believe me? Check out this data:

2008: Hancock - $105 million (5-day)
2007: Transformers - $155 million (5-day)
2006: Superman Returns - $108 million (5-day)
2005: War of the Worlds - $112 million (4-day)
2004: Spider-Man 2 - $180 million (4-day)


I envision a five-day take of $115 million for Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, which will probably include $65 million or so in the Fri-Sun span. Will that be enough to top Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen in its second week? I think it will be very close. Maybe too close to call. I have to believe at some point that Transformers will eventually reach a tipping point, wherein everyone who has desired to see it will have done so, and probably more than once, by the end of its second or third weekend. Ice Age movies have already proven that they have great legs, so if for whatever reason Dawn of the Dinosaurs doesn’t outgross the big robots in its first week, they may well do so a week or two down the line. If it helps you decide, it too is being shown in 4,000-plus theaters.

In the brand new July leagues (get your slates in, already!!), this film will run you $34 in Ultimate and $36 in Box Office. And since Transformers is not even a factor any more when it comes to the July leagues, if you want a film that has any chance of making a truckload of money, it either has to be this or Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (or possibly both, though I wouldn’t attempt that maneuver in anything but Box Office), as nothing else coming until November even has a chance at $200 million. By the time all is said and done, I envision thirteen Top 5 points, seven PTA, and a User Rating in the high 6’s or low 7’s. I personally would recommend Harry Potter more strongly over this one, but then, I’ve gotten a lot of calls wrong this summer…

In what may just be the best bit of counter-programming this entire summer, Universal has elected to release Public Enemies, an R-rated 1930’s gangster film chronicling the story of true-life villain John Dillinger (Johnny Depp) and the man assigned to bring him to justice, Federal agent Melvin Purvis (Christian Bale). It is being helmed by critically acclaimed director Michael Mann, whose resume for making gritty crime dramas is lengthy indeed. Manhunter, Heat, Collateral and Miami Vice were all well-acted, well-written dramas that should be required viewing for all who love the genre (not to mention his other “biographical” film, Ali).

There really is no actor working in the business today who has chosen more eclectic roles than Johnny Depp. Despite the fact that he has been joined at the hip with director Tim Burton for nearly two decades (they’ve made a staggering seven movies together, with an eighth, Alice in Wonderland, set for next March, and yes, folks, he IS playing the Mad Hatter), there are few moviegoers who doubt his acting chops, no matter who he plays. Though I must say, it is refreshing for a change to see the guy without a funky hairdo, psychedelic outfit or deranged personality.

And let’s not forget Christian Bale, the controversial Welsh actor who helped breathe life back into the given-up-for-dead Batman franchise, and also just helped kick-start the long-defunct Terminator series back into action again. And even though there are those who may dispute HIS acting ability in the roles of Bruce Wayne and John Connor, there are plenty who lovingly remember him as Jamie Graham in Empire of the Sun or, more likely, Patrick Bateman in American Psycho. Put these two together, folks, and you have lightning in a bottle.

One might think that an R rating might hamper Public Enemies’ chances of becoming a big box-office hit, to which I say: "HELLO?! Exactly HOW much has The Hangover earned, you dolt?" Seriously, though, I would be very surprised if the triumvirate of Mann, Depp and Bale managed less than $60 million over the five-day Fourth of July weekend.

The problem is, even though those numbers are impressive, and would probably be good enough to take #1 on most other weeks of the year, it’s run smack dab into two tried-and-true franchises in Transformers and Ice Age, which means that the chances of it landing in that #3 spot for its O.W. is a virtual certainty.

I want to recommend this film, I really REALLY do. It will run you $25 in Ultimate ($24 in Box Office), which is a pretty sizable chunk of change. It seems to be a better fit for Box Office, as I figure it will make around $130 million before it’s run is done. As for Ultimate? Jeez, what to do? It’s current IMDb ranking is a staggering 9.1 (with over 1,700 votes tabulated), which means that it probably won’t drop much lower than 8.3 once it is released. On the other hand, it probably won’t ever have enough muscle to scream past Transformers or Ice Age, and it will probably get beaten out by another R-rated film, Bruno, the next week, which means seven Top 5 points are optimistically the best you can do. You do the math.

My predictions for the weekend of July 3-5, 2009:

1. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs - $65 million ($115 million 5-day)
2. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - $62 million
3. Public Enemies - $38 million ($62 million 5-day)
4. The Proposal - $10 million
5. The Hangover - $9 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, I will be stocking up on plenty of Tums and Listerine, as I will have to stomach the release of Bruno, Sacha Baron Cohen’s latest attempt to push the vulgarity meter straight to the “critical mass” setting, this time in the guise of a flamboyant Austrian fashion designer touring various parts of America. I will also give a few lines to I Love You, Beth Cooper, yet another teenage-love-sex-thing movie featuring Paul Rust as the nerdy valedictorian who professes his undying love for the school babe (Heroes’ Hayden Panettiere) during his graduation speech. Oy.

Later!

Two corrections to point out on Ice Age:

-First of all it's Blue Sky Studios who did the film, not Sony Pictures Animation (interestingly enough, Sony Pictues Animation has never had a film gross $100 million in the US).
-Second his name is Scrat, not Skrat.

Meanwhile, I'll go with:

Ice Age $70 million ($113 million 5-day)
Transformers $47 million
Public Enemies $41 million ($61 million 5-day)

Hmm... I always thought it was Sony. Guess I should do a little more research...

You really think Transfomers is going to drop that much?

I think that everyone that saw it went to see on opening weekend. Plus, the big films nowadays seem to drop huge in the second week unless it's The Dark Knight or Star Trek. The film is more like Spider-Man 3 and Wolverine rather than The Dark Knight and Star Trek. However, my $47 million is not as bad as Spider-Man 3 or Wolverine but still a hefty drop.

Also, the audience will be sharply divided. You've got Ice Age for the kids and families and Public Enemies for the adults and the ladies. That leaves Transformers with the high school and college age boys and tweens. So a drop of over 55% or higher should definitely happen.

I can't agree enough how nice it is to see Depp playing a regular human being. If I do see Publice Enemies, he'll be the reason. And Bale is overrated. I'm horrible at predicting 5-day's so I'll pass on that, but Public Enemies reminds me a lot of American Gangster (I just felt like saying that).

Also, FOX recently let "leak" that Hayden Paniteirre will be naked in ILY, BC. But probably only from the back since it's PG-13. Seems like they're trying anything to help it make some money. What were they thinking releasing it against Bruno?

Shrykespeare wrote: In the brand new July leagues (get your slates in, already!!), this film will run you $34 in Ultimate and $36 in Box Office. And since Transformers is not even a factor any more when it comes to the July leagues, if you want a film that has any chance of making a truckload of money, it either has to be this or Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (or possibly both, though I wouldn’t attempt that maneuver in anything but Box Office), as nothing else coming until November even has a chance at $200 million. !

I actually did attempt just that in the Regulars league. I doubt it will work very well so I didn't do that in the Super Leagues. LOL Obviously it all depends on the PTA and IMDB of my small picks.