SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 6/5 - Land of the Lost, The Hangover, My Life in Ruins

Well, CRAP.

After over two years without missing a deadline, I’m sure it was bound to happen. And I know shit will and does happen, be it computer malfunction, tyrannical bosses or swarms of ravening locusts, but still, it sucks to have my run of not missing a single wide-release film end. I promise, it WILL not happen again.

Needless to say, HAD I had a functioning computer last week to gauge the prospects of Pixar’s latest cinemasterpiece Up, I certainly would not have predicted $68 million, 5 Top 5, 5 PTA and a User Rating of 9.2. I would probably have gone with around $45 million, 5 Top 5, 4 PTA and a UR of 8.3, but still, congrats to all who picked it. And I certainly would have OVERestimated the end result of Drag Me to Hell, which posted a very respectable 8.2 User Rating of its own but, probably in large part due to its theater count, only managed just over $15 million. I certainly would have at least expected a better than $20 million opening, given that that’s what The Strangers (by all accounts, an inferior film with a way-less-known director) did on this weekend one year ago.

But, oh well, time marches on, and whaddaya know, the calendar has just flipped over to June, so it’s time to see what the second month of the summer season has to bring. June is one of those interesting months: it’s populated with quite a few movies that have blockbuster potential, but are spaced out more evenly than the jam-packed May or the mid-summer barrage of July. We are all looking forward to the release of Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen on June 24th, where it will begin its run to becoming the Box Office cham-peen of 2009. But until then we have three weeks of basically filler material; the usual mix of good and bad, overrated and underrated, take it or leave it.

The first big film of June 5th is Land of the Lost (PG-13), a big-screen adaptation of the kids’ Saturday morning TV series that ran from 1974 to 1976. Created by the famous Krofft Brothers, Sid and Marty, this classic series featured a catchy theme song, a hunky teen idol and some of the absolute worst special effects, set designs and costumes ever devised. But hey, when you’re seven years old and living in the 70’s, this show was da BOMB!!

On this show, explorer Rick Marshall takes his two children, Will and Holly, rafting. They get sucked into a dimensional portal, and end up in a land inhabited by dinosaurs, a race of primitive ape-like people called the Pakuni, and a species of humanoid lizards called the Sleestaks. Though there was real danger afoot, one never got the sense that any actual harm would befall the Marshall family (after all, it was Saturday morning fluff), and though they came close to finding their way back home, they ultimately never did before the series got cancelled.

Though CGI dinosaurs, set design and costumery has made several quantum leaps since the disco era, I’m not entirely sure that this latest attempt to butcher a classic TV show can really be called an “adaptation”. Yes, the main character has the same name, and yes, there are dinosaurs, ape-people and Sleestaks, but there the similarities pretty much end. Director Brad Silberling (Lemony Snicket) has the boisterous Will Ferrell in the role of Rick Marshall, but instead of bringing two kids along for the ride, he has his assistant (the requisite “hot chick”, played by Pushing Daisies’ Anna Friel) and a macho-but-dumb tour guide (Danny McBride).

If you’ve seen the trailer, then you’ll know that if you go into this film expecting a substantive plot, you’ll probably be disappointed. This is simply a vehicle for Ferrell to yell, scream, run around, mug for the camera, and tell just enough dirty jokes to avoid an “R” rating. (Oh, and narrowly avoid getting eaten by the one creature in Hollywood with a louder voice than his.) If it weren’t for Ferrell’s last outing, Semi-Pro, bombing so badly, I might have picked this film to open over $40 million. But even though the premise for Land of the Lost is way more kid-friendly, I can’t imagine that that many kids who weren’t already Ferrell die-hards will want to see this film, not when there are still so many May holdovers going strong (Star Trek, Night at the Museum 2, Up).

Though this film will bow somewhere in the neighborhood of 3,500 theaters, I can’t envision an opening weekend of much more than $30 million, which probably will not be enough to dislodge Pixar’s latest from that #1 spot. And not only that, it wouldn’t surprise me a bit if this film dropped totally off the map within two weeks of its release, given that there are no less than four other major comedies – ranging from kid-friendly to adults-only – rising up to compete against it, featuring the likes of Eddie Murphy and Jack Black, among others.

For $19 in the new June Ultimate Leagues (get your slates in NOW!), and $20 in the new June Box Office Leagues (Ditto!), this film will not give you what you want. I’ll be optimistic and predict seven Top 5, three PTA, a User Rating of 6.8 and $75 million in receipts. Honestly, you could spend that much on any other like-priced film or combination of films, and you’ll end up in better shape.

If you’re not one of those players who has jumped on the bandwagon for The Hangover (R), well, you’re in the minority. This film, which two months ago I saw as little more than a tiny bump in the cinematic road, has grown into a major player. Well-hyped and well-advertised, this R-rated comedy from Warner Bros. could not only end up being a major spoiler for the Ferrell hangers-on, but could also be the key to a rip-roaring June season for your slates.

Priced at a svelte $9 in Ultimate ($10 in Box Office), I originally picked this film to open at around $12 million en route to roughly $30 million overall. But now, based on industry tracking, it’s beginning to look that it has an outside chance to top $25 million in its first three days, which may or may not be enough to outduel Land of the Lost for that #2 spot. Who’da thunk it?

Directed by Todd Phillips (Road Trip, Old School), The Hangover tells the tale of four friends – a soon-to-be-married guy named Doug (Justin Bartha), his best friends Phil (Bradley Cooper) and Stu (Ed Helms), and his about-to-be bro-in-law (Zach Galifianakis) – who go to Vegas for the bachelor party to end all bachelor parties. Going from the film’s title alone, you can probably guess what happens next; following a night of massive alcohol consumption and debauchery, the gang awake the next morning to find a tiger in their bathroom, a baby in their closet and the groom nowhere to be found. The severely-compromised trio must then retrace their steps in order to get their buddy to the church on time. (Yeah, good luck with that…)

I would have originally thought that it would harm this film’s overall chances of success to have not one household name in the cast – apart from Mike Tyson, who appears as himself in what promises to be a side-splitting cameo – but it seems I was wrong. This film has “cult classic” written all over it, much like Bachelor Party, Old School or the first Harold and Kumar film. My revised predictions for this film are: five Top 5 points, one or two PTA, a User Rating that may be well north of 7.0 and $65 million. Which, for $9 or $10, depending on your choice of leagues, is pretty damn good. Like I said, many many players have decided to make this title their first out of the gate… do you want to be one of the few that doesn’t reap its benefits? I didn’t think so.

I’m not going to waste much space on My Life in Ruins (PG-13), for the simple fact that it will be bowing in a number of theaters that barely qualifies as “wide-release” (BOM has it at only 1,100 locations). I have also not seen any posters, trailers or commercials for this film, which tells me that is one title that Fox Searchlight should have just sent straight to DVD.

Remember Nia Vardalos? She was the actress from the megahit My Big Fat Greek Wedding (as well as its ill-advised TV spinoff, My Big Fat Greek Life). Yeah, her. Though born in Canada, she is half-Greek on her mother’s side, and she apparently can’t get enough of the place, as she not only stars in, but co-wrote the screenplay for this film. (Tom Hanks is listed as a co-producer, for whatever that’s worth.) Nia plays Georgia, a woman who makes a living leading bored and disinterested tourists around the Greek Isles. (Hence the “ruins” mentioned in the title.) In true rom-com fashion, she learns to have fun again from an older man named Irv (Richard Dreyfuss) and finds an unexpected spark of romance with her bus driver (Alexis Georgoulis).

Look, I have as much confidence as the next guy in director Donald Petrie to produce a well-written, enjoyable romantic comedy; having been the driving force behind such films as Mystic Pizza, Miss Congeniality and How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days (though the less said about Just My Luck, the better), I can totally get behind both this premise and this film. But as a good pick? I would steer well clear of it. I mean, WELL clear. Now, granted, you’re not going to find very many wide-release films on the roster for $5 or less in Box Office ($6 in Ultimate), which means this film likely won’t hurt you much in the long run should you decide to choose it, but honestly? This film would have to be a dead cert at $15-$20 million before I gave it the time of day, and I’m frankly skeptical of its ability to even debut in the Top 5 at all.


My predictions for the weekend of June 5-7, 2009:

1. Up - $39 million
2. Land of the Lost - $31 million
3. The Hangover - $27 million
4. Night at the Museum 2 - $12 million
5. Take your pick from Drag Me to Hell, Star Trek or Terminator


Well, that will do it for me for this week. Please return next week (knock on wood) for my next column, where I will critique two more films scheduled for release on June 12th: The Taking of Pelham 123, re-teaming director Tony Scott with his Déjà Vu headliner Denzel Washington (as well as John Travolta); and Imagine That, a Paramount/Nickelodeon film starring Eddie Murphy in, believe it or not, ONE role only, that of a disgruntled financial exec who, in the process of bonding with his young daughter and her imaginary world, may find the key to his own success.

Later!

I've seen a trailer for My Life in Ruins and well, it looks pretty awful. Even for a romantic comedy. It's just a standard formulaic "women is working so hard that she misses the supermodel right in front of her."

I doubt it outopens Next Day Air.

I'm interested in My Life In Ruins solely for the fact that the writer (Mike Reiss) wrote some of the most popular Simpsons episodes ever. Also, it's got Richard Dreyfuss. Even in bad movies, you can't go wrong with Richard Dreyfuss.

What? No credit for me in what made you high on The Hangover? I should tell everyone that I back My Life in Ruins and maybe it'll do $50 M!

Sorry, W, my memory isn't what it used to be. Thanks.

W, ever since the trailer debuted, everyone has been high on The Hangover. Buzz out the ass from reportedly high test groups, news of a sequel in the works (I guess nobody dies then), and all the promotion all over the country are the main reason why this could be the 2nd highest grossing movie on June, and why everyone has put it on their slates.

Not to take anything away from you, I know you've been on a roll this year in predicting, but The Hangover is responsible for The Hangover's buzz.

You mean that I don't have 1 million people ready and willing to go to whatever film I say? You burst my bubble there...

I should probably put "sarcasm" at the bottom of every post where I use it... LOL. I was joking because I was the first one (here) on this bandwagon...

W can i state that you are a genius. I dont know how you do it dude. They should have doing the tracking instead of those other idiots.

Yeah, W, sarcasm + internets = me not knowing what the hell is going on.

Consider my paragraph stricken from the record

The rest of us are just watching Banks and JackO square off in the "who's got the sexiest avatar" contest.

Banks's is sexier. Neither one is much of an actress but Akerman seems to look nicer. Fox is also beautiful but she seems like she is a whore.

You can't beat Meagan Fox

From the two pics, Fox looks better. But in reality, Akerman is way hotter. Megan Fox's hot white trash look has gotten old. Plus she looks just like my best friend in grade school. Who was a guy.

Hey man, can't go wrong either way, just prefer Fox. I also prefer Akerman in her Watchmen black hair and latex. I like dark hair better, blondes don't really do it for me so much.

transformers2 wrote:W can i state that you are a genius. I dont know how you do it dude. They should have doing the tracking instead of those other idiots.

Thanks, now whether that is sarcasm or not, its joining Roger Ebert's praise of myself on my signature! :)

I do have to state, though, that I think I'm just on a hot streak and I'll cool off before the end of the year.

no not sarcasam. Completely meant it and i am honored that you are using it under Ebert's quote thanks dude