Up Weekend Tracking

DHD Update coming up, but title in place:

EARLY BOX OFFICE: 'Up' For $17M Friday, $55M Weekend; 'Drag Me To Hell' $7M/$18M

I apologize to all that I was not able to do a "Speare's Tips" in time for this weekend's films. It's actually the first deadline I've missed, EVER. I'll try to throw something impromptu together tomorrow (even though it's after the fact), so I can keep my string going. I'll definitely have something for LOTL/Hangover/MLIR early next week, along with the Roudn Three FINAL results!!

Buscemi wrote:Honestly, Transporter 3 was the weakest of the trilogy. It wasn't bad but the loss of Louis Leterrier as (co-) director caused it not to be as good as the first two.

I really think the first Transporter is the weakest that might come as a surprise to some but i just didnt like it as much as the last two.

J-Man wrote:DHD Update coming up, but title in place:

EARLY BOX OFFICE: 'Up' For $17M Friday, $55M Weekend; 'Drag Me To Hell' $7M/$18M

I actually think those may go a bit higher. Good thing too because I have both of those films on quite a few slates!

Up might have a below average OW for Pixar, but it'll def have legs throughout the summer. It'll knock off all kid's movies until Ice Age, at least.

I loving this NATM 2 pick . . .dropped exactly 50% and had a 3.6X weekend IM. I'm pretty happy right now with both of these picks. A goldmine of legs is going to carry my slates back out of the gutter!

Mase's Estimates

Exclusive Early Box Office Estimates:
UP-$20.5M Fri/$67M 3-day,
NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM 2-$7.5M Fri/$27M 3-day,
DRAG ME TO HELL-$6.25M Fri/$16.5M 3-day,
TERMINATOR-$5M Fri/$16M 3-day,
STAR TREK-$3.7M Fri/$13.5M 3-day ($210M cume by Monday).

i give up on predicting the box office.

I'm really disappointed with Drag Me To Hell's numbers. I expected a $12 million opening day and a $30 million weekend. Either Universal doesn't know how to market horror or audiences will shun a horror film if it gets good reviews (see Slither, The Descent and Grindhouse).

I'm pretty sure its just the fact that there is so much competition out there. Horror movies that usually do well are the ones that have no competition and are dumped in wasteland times. Right now there's so much out there to spread the market that I don't think its positive reviews or the marketing have been the problem.

Drag Me to Hell looks great, people seem to think its great by the way its being rated, and was advertized well. Maybe tracking is wrong or maybe it will have uncharacteristic great legs. You're still getting probably 4-5 T5 and a great IMDB (sitting at 8.2) so at the very least its not a complete flop.

Up is currently sitting at a 9.1 IMDB rating. That's top 5 IMDB 250 territory. I doubt it'll stay there, but you can't ask for more in that department.

im with geez on this one. Drag Me To Hell is underperforming because of the market. Horror films are hit or miss and normally the hits come in wasteland months and most of the time suffer huge drops [ex Friday The 13th].

Example: The Uninvited, Friday the 13th, A Haunting in Connecticut, Last House on the Left...

It's still got a great IMDb for those that took it in Ultimate. (me.)

JackO wrote:It's still got a great IMDb for those that took it in Ultimate. (me.)

Yeah, I just said that... (look at the top)

Plus, you get PTA (I'm sure), and a good enough amount of T5 (gotta be double digits, right?).

With Friday's estimates plugged into Round Three of the Box Office SLs, here's how the Red Zones look:

Full Year - Looks like the cut is going to be just above $400M.

Six people will be eliminated (barring an IM).

Definitely out: numbersix, mfrendo, leestu
Most likely in trouble: Mannix2121, thegreenarrow, akibaali
On the bubble: annyonggob888, Donte77, Mister Informative


Half Year - The cut here will be about $420M.

Twelve people will be eliminated (barring an IM).

Definitely out: Nycguy84, thegreenarrow, annyonggob888, Mister Informative, Mannix2121, wesvolk. numbersix will lose his IM.
Most likely in trouble: smee2000, codeslinger. geezer will lose his IM.
On the bubble: TBB, transformers2, jess sayin, thswrestler


Will update after BOM's updates tomorrow.

W wrote:

JackO wrote:It's still got a great IMDb for those that took it in Ultimate. (me.)

Yeah, I just said that... (look at the top)

Plus, you get PTA (I'm sure), and a good enough amount of T5 (gotta be double digits, right?).

It looks like One week and Done in terms of Top 5 since Hangover and LOTL will both be in it. It's gotta finish above T4.

That is a fantastic start for Up! I am hoping it can pull in some extremely good legs and edge the 300M, very unlikely though.

A 3 multiple from $65 million wouldn't even give it $200 million. Now, it will get above a 3 multiple, but $300 million isn't happening for a movie that opened just above Wall-E.

300 Million for anything not named Transformers or Harry Potter wasn't happening & we know that from the outset.

Up's reviews are on par with Wall-E if not better. And I think Up has no seclusion factor that Wall-E had the left/right politics about the conservation, recycling, save the planet craziness that bothered some right-leaning parents.

Up has a rich story that will entertainment humans of all ages. Wall-E hit 220+ million for the critical & audience love reaction to it. Up has that same factor & along with the 3D I think it's a better marketing device than Wall-E.

With very strong holds Up gets in the 235-250 range.

That's feasible, but one thing may hold it back... it's just not as good. Of course, that's just my opinion. I know it currently has a 9.2 UR, so I'm obviously in the minority, and don't get me wrong, I did enjoy it, but just not as much.

Wall-E, Ratatouille, Cars and The Incredibles were in my Top 3 films of each of the last four years, respectively. I can tell you right now that Up will not be. I can suspend disbelief, and ignore any number of coincidences and plot contrivances for the sake of entertainment, but only up to a point. And though there were plenty of "awww" moments, I just didn't leave the theater as fulfilled as before.

All in all, of Pixar's ten films, I rank Up a distant 8th, ahead of only Monsters Inc (which was good, but way too cutesy-poo) and Toy Story 2 (which I just didn't like). I can only hope that Toy Story 3 turns it around.

Ranking Pixar films is like trying to rank Pacino's greatest films. You could be a Dog Day guy, Godfather I or II, or Scarface (which IMO was a great acting job) but it doesn't take the fact away that all are great in their own way.

Pixar is a thousand steps ahead of any other animation studio out there in practically every way.

I have no doubt that I will love up just like I loved Wall-E, Toy Story, Monsters Inc, Ratatouille, and all the others (except for The Incredibles).

Shryke i am kind of surprised by your thoughts on Up. Havent seen it myself but im just surprised you didnt like it as much as everyone else.

Ugh, I overrated night at the Museum and severely under-rated Up according to DHD's latest numbers:

1. Up - 68M
2. Night at the Museum 2 - 25M (down 54%)
3. Drag Me to Hell - 16M
4. Terminator: Salvation - 15.2M (down 64%)
5. Star Trek - 12.7M
6. Angels and Demons - 11.5M

Glad I took up in my April leagues... finally looks like we have a winner.