SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 5/21-5/22 - Terminator Salvation, Night at the Museum 2, Dance Flick

I apologize to all my faithful readers about the lateness of this column. I did, in fact, have a complete and edited column already to go last Monday, but then, tragically, all of my Internet privileges at work were summarily revoked, and every personal file that I had spent three years amassing was deleted without so much as a by-your-leave. Every column I ever wrote, almost every movie review that anyone ever sent me, years of personal data, and some stuff that I can never replace. Fascists!

Well, needless to say, it’s very tiresome to write something over from scratch, which is another reason why my take on the films of May 21st and 22nd is a bit late in coming. I’m going to have to do all my columnizing, e-mailing, gaming, and spreadsheet-updating at home now, not to mention all my research, which is going to put me in a bit of time crunch. But the show must go on, so…

I’m going to cut right to the chase about the three films that will be debuting this weekend, the first of which is Terminator: Salvation, which bows on Thursday, May 21st. The fourth film in the franchise that began all the way back in 1984 with James Cameron’s classic The Terminator, the film that put Arnold Schwarzenegger on the map as a viable action star for nearly two decades (including the wonderful Terminator 2: Judgment Day in 1991).

If Salvation has anything going against it, it’s timing. The two-season-long television experiment called The Sarah Connor Chronicles finally fizzled out this year, and many moviegoers still have the bitter taste of the woeful Rise of the Machines still in their mouths. Another thing might be the reputation of the film’s director Joseph McGinty Nichol (better known as “McG”), whose most ambitious project to date has been the two Charlie’s Angels movies. Honestly, might people be Terminator-ed out by now?

On the other hand, apart from being the first chapter of the franchise not to star the Governator (in a featured role, anyway), this is the first one that takes place in the future. Mankind is struggling to survive in 2018 in the war against Skynet and it’s army of cyborgs, but the conflict takes a bizarre and unexpected turn when human resistance leader John Connor (Batman himself, Christian Bale) meets Marcus Wright (Sam Worthington, star of the upcoming Avatar), who appears to be a half-human, half-machine hybrid.

Though the trailer looks impressive as hell, early reviews have not been promising, and I can’t help but wonder if Terminator: Salvation will do precisely what Wolverine did a mere three weeks ago: bow to an incredible opening weekend, and then suffer monstrous drops in successive weeks. Early tracking has it brining in somewhere in the neighborhood of $80 million for the Thursday-Monday five-day weekend, but if the parallel to Wolverine holds, it may have an extremely difficult time making it to $200 million.

For $35 in the May Ultimate leagues ($37 in Box Office), this title may be a wolf in sheep’s clothing. For its price tag, it may not even taking #1 on its OW, which makes it, if not a "no-no", then at least an "oh-oh". Though the competition will soften somewhat in early June, I foresee eleven Top 5, five PTA and a User Rating in around 7.0. I wouldn’t have said so three weeks ago, but now I have to believe that if you’re going to spend a huge hunk of your budget on a movie about machines, you go with the OTHER one.

What may just steal all of McG’s thunder is Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian, which opens one day later. Come on, you knew it was coming. When Night at the Museum had an impressive six-month run in theaters starting in Christmas 2006, pounding out $250 million in the process, you knew a sequel was imminent. And lo, here it is.

Though the early reviews for Battle haven’t been much better, it hardly matters. This is practically a shoe-in to be the #1 non-animated comedy of the summer (unless Funny People really goes through the roof), and no matter how egregiously corny the film looks from the trailer, kids will line up and see it.

All the major characters are back from the second one, particularly Ben Stiller as night watchman Larry Daley, who must safeguard his charges – namely, all of the exhibits that come to life at night – when the Museum of Natural History closes for renovations and they are all shipped to the Smithsonian Institute in Washington, D.C., including the ancient Egyptian tablet that makes every inanimate object in the vicinity come alive. But you knew that, right?

Also back are supporting players Owen Wilson (Jedediah), Steve Coogan (Octavius) and Robin Williams (Teddy Roosevelt), not to mention appearances from Hank Azaria, Bill Hader and Amy Adams (I swear, she is EVERYWHERE these days!!). What exactly the plot is, I’m not sure, but I’m sure it’s the same hijinks-related nonsense that populated the first film.

Don’t get me wrong, I could watch Ben Stiller get bitch-slapped by capuchin monkeys all day and into the evening, but I sincerely hope that NATM 2 doesn’t bog itself down by any number of clichés that can be found in the “how to screw up a sequel” handbook. From the trailer, I would say that my hopes aren’t high… though the comedic potential of having Darth Vader AND Oscar the Grouch in the same scene may just be too good to pass up.

Early tracking has Museum doing about $70 million over the four-day, Friday-Monday weekend. Considering that Pixar’s latest potential masterpiece, Up, is coming only one week later (and is sure to be accompanied by an avalanche of positive reviews), I would be very wary about putting this title on my slate.

$32 is what it will run you in both Ultimate and Box Office leagues, and honestly, it just isn’t worth it to me. It may very well take #1 in both Top 5 and PTA this weekend, but after that, all bets may be off. Up will blow by it next weekend, as might Drag Me to Hell, as THAT film has gotten nearly as much air as Museum has. I predict it will end up with twelve Top 5, six PTA and a Rating around 6.0. You could do worse, but you could also do much better. Go with Up, or, if you can afford it, save your money for Transformers.

If Disaster Movie taught us anything (besides the sweet, sweet taste of Pepto Bismol), it’s that the spoof genre seems to be at an all-time low. And while the comedic stylings of the Wayans Brothers are quite a few steps above that of diaper-bags Friedberg and Seltzer, that’s not saying all that much. Yes, White Chicks was a novel concept. Little Man, not so much. But now they’re going into full-on spoof mode with Dance Flick, a film that parodies, you got it, dance movies. (Note to the Bros.: changing “Movie” to “Flick”… yeah, that’ll fool EVERYONE. Sheesh.)

It’s a spoof movie, so you really don’t need to worry about the plot, save to say that dance films from as recent as Feel the Noise and Hairspray and going all the way back to Flashdance will be eviscerated by the Family Wayans. Just the fact that it’s them and not the “Movie” a-holes means it’s automatically funnier and, if not more intelligent, at least it doesn’t treat its audience like morons.

This is NOT a film you want in Ultimate. I can’t possibly open up any higher than #4 or #5 on its OW (and only if Angels and Demons craters in its second week, which I doubt, because Star Trek will most assuredly be going strong), which means maybe one Top 5 point, no PTA, and the Rating? Come on. It’s a spoof movie (which means terrible) and an African-American movie (which means even more terrible). You’ll be lucky to pull a 3.5 out. It just might be worth $7 in Box Office, but only just. I really don’t think it’s got much more than $30 million in its tank, and that’s pushing it.

(I’m not going to do my Top 5 predictions, as it’s getting late, I’m tired, and doing all the three-day-four-day-five-day numbers is making my head spin. You’ll live.)

Next week, one of my most anticipated films of the year: Up, Pixar’s latest attempt to extend it’s string of groundbreaking, breathtaking animated successes into double-digits; as well as Drag Me to Hell, a horror film directed by Spider-Man guru Sam Raimi.

Later!

I think Wolverine is a great parallel to Terminator, big OW and big drops. Even if there's not another action movie til Transformers, maybe Taking of Pelham 123.

My g/f recently confessed to wanting to see Dance Flick. The downside of getting into movies free is that you usually catch some bullshit you wouldn't have paid for. Let's home I can convince her to please me during the movie, since the theater will probably be half empty.

Let's hope!

Use the dick in the popcorn trick...works every time.

But what if the butter and/or salt finds its way into the tip of my penis? I'd imagine that wouldn't feel too great.

Maybe I'll go the dick in the (extra-large) drink cup and hope she doesn't jab a straw in there like Dr. Block from Grindhouse.

Guys, please...

Too much?

And I wasn't even egging it on. I think my work is done here...

I think NATM 2, if it gets at least 60M over the weekend is good enough for 2nd or 3rd. There is no way it drops more then 50% and Drag Me to Hell opens up more then 30M. Well, there is way, but I think it will hold up better then that.

I wouldn't put money on it, JackO. Drag Me to Hell is going to be rather large. Not to mention the counter-programming aspect ala Mamma Mia. It's possible that it's going to be another one of those that surprises. No way it's not at least worth the price.

Drag Me to Hell = Mamma Mia!

Well, if that's the case then it will have a small opening and great legs. Meaning NATM 2 will be on top for another weekend, below Up of course.

I don't know about Mamma Mia!, which made well over $100 million... a better parallel would be The Strangers; same weekend, same genre, same counterprogramming strategy.

Shrykespeare wrote:I don't know about Mamma Mia!, which made well over $100 million... a better parallel would be The Strangers; same weekend, same genre, same counterprogramming strategy.

The Strangers is about right, I could see Drag Me to Hell doing around $50 mill total. Another comparable would be The Haunting in Conneticut.

I think 1408 is more comparable.

i agree with Monkey Drag Me To Hell is more comparable to 1408 accept i dont think it will be as big.

I'm pretty happy with that NATM 2 pick in retrospect. Might not gross as much as Star Trek but the Top 5 and PTA should be there to make it worth the price.

I've been saying that Drag Me To Hell is comparable to 1408 for weeks. People have been saying that Drag me to Hell will be bigger. I still say they will end up around the same.