Re: The most competitive weekend of the summer...maybe ever

by J.I. Tue May 19, 2009 11:04 pm

I don't know why people keep saying that. Once again, may I reference Paul Blart, Taken, HJNTIY, Knowing, MvA, Fast and Furious, and Obsessed.

by brockman81 Tue May 19, 2009 11:52 pm

Yes you may reference those...and I'll be happy to reference Race to Witch Mountain (upper 30's tracking, 24M OW), Angels and Demons (high 50's tracking, mid 40's actual), Hannah Montana (23M tracking, 32M OW), and why did you put F&F?, tracking was mid 40's for that and it had an OW of 70M!, why did you reference Watchmen? (75M tracking, 55M OW), Tyler Perry (low 20's tracking, 41M OW), and last but not least, the Jonas Brothers (mid 30's tracking, 12M OW ouch!).........my point in saying that tracking doesn't mean a god damn thing is that for every movie that the tracking is spot on (and I would argue that there's not that many) there's another movie that the tracking is, um....spot off? Smile

by J.I. Wed May 20, 2009 2:45 am

brockman81 wrote:and why did you put F&F?, tracking was mid 40's for that and it had an OW of 70M!

RS, the only one that was posted here at the time, had it in the Mid 40's, while MTC had it in the 70's. But yes referencing Watchmen was a mistake.

not least, the Jonas Brothers (mid 30's tracking, 12M OW ouch!).........my point in saying that tracking doesn't mean a god damn thing is that for every movie that the tracking is spot on (and I would argue that there's not that many) there's another movie that the tracking is, um....spot off?

Yeah but its not like Steve Mason, BOG, coming soon.net, etc. don't get any way wrong.

by brockman81 Wed May 20, 2009 2:57 am

I agree that Mase is usually close, but we don't get those numbers (well not anymore) until the end of the week...I was just going by early week tracking...I guess I was just trying to say the tracking is all over the place, so don't count the Terminator out yet! (wishful thinking for my slates too!)

by **Buscemi** Wed May 20, 2009 4:15 am

W wrote:
Buscemi wrote:Am I the only person who thinks that Night At The Museum 2 looks terrible and that Fox is unleashing a giant turkey onto the world? The trailer has maybe one good joke and a hundred bad jokes (they even make a reference to The Great Gatsby in a kids' movie, which is always a bad sign if you make references to things that children won't get). Also, it stuffs fifteen different characters and possibly the whole plot of the movie into a two-minute trailer so basically you don't really need to pay $13.00 to see this on IMAX because you've seen the whole film in the trailer. Another problem I have with the trailer is the end, which features characters that have nothing to do with the story (another bad sign in the trailer). The shot of the three boys and the dinosaur bones seems like a cheap attempt to get the Jonas Brothers crowd to see the film as the bit parts seem like Jonas Brothers wannabes who shun anything "not cool" to get the teeny-boppers talking.

When you compare it to the Dance Flick trailer and shots of breakdancing babies, the trailer for Dance Flick is fucking gold.

By the way, does anyone see the Darth Vader and Oscar The Grouch cameos as a desperate ploy to get people who know that it's going to be a turkey to see it anyway?

I have now taken Night at the Museum on a slate. Your "I hate this film" rants have been good bets these past few months....

I dropped Terminator for Night At The Museum in everything. After I posted this, I realized that Terminator was a sinking ship and that Night At The Museum was the way to go.

However, I still can't figure why these films do so well.

And you better be right about The Hangover! I've got a few slates with it also.

by **Shrykespeare** Wed May 20, 2009 4:22 am

So is this the thread we're going to be putting the tracking numbers? Are there any yet?

by JackO Wed May 20, 2009 5:33 am

RS 5.22
-- notfabio, May 18, 1:41
TERMINATOR: Mid 90's (5 day)
NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM: High 70's (4 day)

Future RS:
HANGOVER: High Teens
LAND OF THE LOST: High 40's
IMAGINE THAT: Mid Teens
UP: Low 50's
DRAG ME: Mid 20's

MTC
Termy: 82 (5 day)
Nighty: 72 (4)
Dancy:8 (4)

by nickb1016 Wed May 20, 2009 5:57 am

those hangover numbers are way off...there is no way that it will open in the teens. It is going to e a lot bigger than that. It has had awesome ads that are getting a great reaction. Also it has already been given a sequel, the studio would not do that if it was tracking this low. It is also the first major comedy of the summer, high 20's or low 30's is where i see this going

by JackO Wed May 20, 2009 6:12 am

I agree nick. I think RS is punishing it some because it is opening against a Will Farrell film (awareness). I think it'll be a lot closer then the early tracking indicates.

by undeadmonkey Wed May 20, 2009 6:15 am

I'm not too worried about Terminator's tracking. Although I am wondering why it's dropping. I think the biggest factor to it's weekend gross will be if what the fanboys will say after seeing it on thursday. If they come back and hate it, Museum will have a good chance of winning the three-day weekend (that is what were counting for the game, right shryke?), but if they come back and like it, I think it can pass $100M over the 5-day.

by **Buscemi** Wed May 20, 2009 6:17 am

I'd say the low tracking is more because of the lack of star power than anything. Also, movies of its type are rarely successful.

by W Wed May 20, 2009 6:25 am

Buscemi wrote:I'd say the low tracking is more because of the lack of star power than anything. Also, movies of its type are rarely successful.

They're probably asking the wrong people. If they asked only guys aged 17-30, they'd get it better.

by **geezer9687** Wed May 20, 2009 6:26 am

undeadmonkey wrote:I'm not too worried about Terminator's tracking. Although I am wondering why it's dropping. I think the biggest factor to it's weekend gross will be if what the fanboys will say after seeing it on thursday. If they come back and hate it, Museum will have a good chance of winning the three-day weekend (that is what were counting for the game, right shryke?), but if they come back and like it, I think it can pass $100M over the 5-day.

That's me!

Spot on analysis.

by **Buscemi** Wed May 20, 2009 6:28 am

I wouldn't take that 8.7 IMDb rating on Terminator so seriously. The last Indiana Jones had an 8.8 rating before opening and look how that turned out.

by brockman81 Wed May 20, 2009 4:32 pm

Didn't the last Indiana Jones movie make over 300M? I'll take that w/ the Terminator.

by Keyser Soze Wed May 20, 2009 7:42 pm

Well, the first reveiw is in, and..........

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2009/05/20/DD7V17N5G0.DTL

by brockman81 Wed May 20, 2009 8:03 pm

It's an epic waste of time.

Ouch!!!!

by **geezer9687** Wed May 20, 2009 9:29 pm

Doesn't bother me. This guy is obviously not looking at the film the way the majority of America will. Couldn't the same things have been said about Transformers, probably to an even greater extent, and that one topped 300 million.

by W Wed May 20, 2009 9:34 pm

The guy doesn't seem to know what he's talking about. He said that all the other films had a villian that infiltrated human society, but this is a prequel to those units backstory, its like watching a prequel where the guy dies in the first one and saying, "How the Hell is that guy in this one? He died in the other film." It's a prequel, guy. Get over it.

by undeadmonkey Wed May 20, 2009 9:39 pm

honestly, this guy doesnt even know what he's talking about. take this part for example:

However, at one point in the film, Skynet comes up with a new creation that has human skin and can speak, and the company calls it the ultimate infiltration machine. But wait. All three previous "Terminator" villains looked human and were capable of speech. They could infiltrate human society, too. So how is this new model an advance?

If he would know anything, he would know that the terminators from the first three came from a time in the future of this movie.

It irritates me to no end when a critic bashes a movie, but he cant find enough actual stuff to bash, so he has to make up crap. It also bugs me when critics dont like a film-maker to begin with and go into the movie already expecting something bad.

by undeadmonkey Wed May 20, 2009 9:40 pm

haha, beat me too it, W

by Keyser Soze Wed May 20, 2009 9:41 pm

W - I think you're missing the point of his statement. He's not asking specifically "Where's that guy?". What he is saying is that each of those films had a villain in human guise that you could root against as opposed to this one which has only the Skynet Corporation as that villain, and it's much easier to root against a villain you can put a face on.

by Keyser Soze Wed May 20, 2009 9:42 pm

UDM - I agree more with the fault in his logic that you mention.

by nickb1016 Wed May 20, 2009 10:41 pm

Well Terminator Salvation is technically set after the first 3 films, although the fact that the Terminator from the first 3 were sent from the future kind of makes it a prequel of sorts. I cant blame the guy for being confused. While reviewers do tend to get it wrong with fanboy movies like this it does have a pretty nasty 35% rating at rt. That is up alot from earlier this week but still not good. Look at the rt rating for other fanboy movies.

Transformers 57%
Terminator 3 70%
The Matrix 86%
The Matrix Revolutions 73%
The Matrix Reloaded 37%
Wanted 72%
Iron Man 93%

That places it in the same range as The Matrix Reloaded and I dont think anyone with argue that is a good thing. It may be entertaining but it is not going to be the next Transformers. Even fanboy movies carry some level of critical support when they break out like Transformers. And in terms of Franchise reboots Salvations is also doing poorly. Star Trek, Batman Begins, Superman Returns, and even Indiana Jones all had fresh ratings. Not just fresh but above 70%.

Also a little off topic but Drag Me to Hell is currently sittting at 100% with a 8.1/10. No cream of the crop yet but those are extremely enthusiastic reviews. Drag Me to Hell is looking to be a sleeper hit imo

by **Shrykespeare** Thu May 21, 2009 5:09 am

From Joe's Box Office:

MAY 22-25 FOUR DAY PREDICTIONS:

1.NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM II: $70.2m - NEW
2.TERMINATOR: SALVATION: $65.5m - NEW (+$16.5m Thurs for $81m total)
3.STAR TREK: $33.1m : -23%
4.ANGELS AND DEMONS: $25m : -46%
5.DANCE FLICK : $12.4 - NEW
6.X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE: $8.8m : -40%
7.GHOSTS OF GIRLFRIENDS PAST: $5.5m : -18%
8.OBSESSION: $3.4m : -25%
9.17 AGAIN: $2.5m : -25%
10.MONSTERS VS ALIENS: $2.5m : -20%

And it's official. According to BOM, as of yesterday, Star Trek has eclipsed Wolverine. Who'da thunk it.

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