The most competitive weekend of the summer...maybe ever

JackO wrote:On her blog, there are some irregularities between Fox's lowballing and what rival studios think. Anyways, off to see NATM 2 in Imax.

Studios purposely lowball their own movies in the event that they were to bomb or if they breakout.

A few months ago I thight NatM2 was counter-programming to Terminator. And also good hold for Star Trek. Should drop in the mid 30's% for the 4-day.

I read on Patrick Goldstein's (of the Los Angeles Times) blog that Fox is so low in their lowballing that the other studios have stopped paying attention to their projections.

Just some food for thought. Night At The Museum could be higher by Monday.

That's also why Finke hasn't updated her numbers since Friday afternoon.

Finke updated her blog, a good read, which she compares Terminator to Watchmen.

Some edited highlights:

Night at the Museum 2: Battle Of The Smithsonian - $15.3 million Friday & $20.6 million Saturday to easily win the 3-day weekend. The pic should finish the 4-day holiday with $70M.

Terminator: Salvation - $14.8 million both Friday and Saturday for a 3-day weekend of just $42M, $52M for the 4-day holiday and a cume of $62M for the 5 days.

Star Trek - $5.8M Friday and $8.7 Saturday, 3-Day 22.5M, 29M 4 day.

Angels & Demons - pic made $5.9M Friday and $8.3M Saturday, 3-day $22M, $27M 4 day.

Box Office Mojo estimates for the 3-day weekend (which is what will count in the standings):

1. NATM - $53.5M
2. T4 - $43.0M ($56.4M total)
3. Star Trek - $22.0M ($183.6M total)
4. A&D - $21.4M ($81.5M total)
5. Dance - $11.1M

PTA
1. NATM - 13,062
2. T4 - 12,184
3. Easy Virtue - 11,600
4. Summer Hours - 7,407
5. Bloom - 6,981

Summer Hours is now definitely worth its price

March is turning out to be an interesting month for geezer...

1. He back-loaded his slates in Box Office, choosing Wolverine, Angels & Demons and Terminator. This may not be enough to keep him out of the RZ in the FY tourney, and it definitely won't in the HY. Now, he happens to possess an IM in all four tournaments, but if this holds true, his streak of being the only Fantaversian to have entered all tournaments and NEVER tasted the RZ will have come to an end. (His streak of being the only one to NEVER having been eliminated, however, continues.)

2. Choosing Terminator turned out to be a good pick, as he vaults 1/2 point over Donte in the Blade Runner league with one week to go. Chugsthemonkey may make a late run from 7th place with both Up and Drag Me to Hell still to come, but he is on the cusp of winning another (frickin') Regulars league.

Good news, bad news. Had to happen eventually.


And in other news, my buddy Graywolf seems to have all but sewn up his first win EVER, as he now holds a commanding lead in the "Chasing Storms" Box Office league with one week to go.

I see there's no numbers for The Girlfriend Experience huh? Anybody hear anything on it?

That's what IM's are for! Can't win them all. Oh well, as long as I'm not eliminated. I took a risk and it backfired. Luckily, I can earn more IM's this year now that they have been used. Wish I could have gotten that second one already, damn rules.

brockman81 wrote:I see there's no numbers for The Girlfriend Experience huh? Anybody hear anything on it?

I saw $165,000 on opening weekend at Box Office Prophets.

Star Trek didn't fall on Sunday (well 0.2%) and only had a 31.8% drop for the 4-day.

J-Man wrote:Finke updated her blog, a good read, which she compares Terminator to Watchmen.

Great comparison, except Watchmen got great reviews while Terminator did not. Either way, people aren't interested in either.

Terminator will probably have the same OW/Total ratio of around 50% and it'll only end up with about $115, maybe up to $130 since it's in the summer. And that would be another huge flop for WB.

i am pretty shocked that Terminator isnt doing better. Oh well i was wrong again.

Damn. Neither Terminator or NATM 2 were runaway winners or losers. I am just hoping for Kung Fu Panda type legs for NATM 2. It looks like Up won't be amazingly huge next week so there will room in the marketplace for the both of them. I think it will be like Star Trek's 2nd weekend vs. Angels and Demons. A 40% drop would put it at 33M which would defintely put it above Drag Me to Hell.

Shrykespeare wrote:

2. Choosing Terminator turned out to be a good pick, as he vaults 1/2 point over Donte in the Blade Runner league with one week to go. Chugsthemonkey may make a late run from 7th place with both Up and Drag Me to Hell still to come, but he is on the cusp of winning another (frickin') Regulars league.

What a prick. I am officially not a fan of Geezer's any longer. LOL 1/2 point wins over me are reserved for Barca only...

JackO wrote:Damn. Neither Terminator or NATM 2 were runaway winners or losers. I am just hoping for Kung Fu Panda type legs for NATM 2. It looks like Up won't be amazingly huge next week so there will room in the marketplace for the both of them. I think it will be like Star Trek's 2nd weekend vs. Angels and Demons. A 40% drop would put it at 33M which would defintely put it above Drag Me to Hell.

I am pretty shocked that the numbers are this low for the weekend. I guess I fell for the hype. At least neither flopped completely, just didn't break the bank.