SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 5/1 - Wolverine, Ghosts of Girlfriends Past, Battle For Terra

I wish I could precede this column with the opening bars of Thus Sprach Zarathustra (that’s the theme music from 2001: A Space Odyssey, in case you didn’t know), for it seems a fitting way to officially begin the summer season. Thirteen-plus weeks of one potential pile-driver after another, hoping to grab our hard-earned dollars before we squander it on, you know, food and heat and stuff like that.

It seems unlikely, going in, that there will be anything in the next few months to rival last summer’s half-billion dollar titan The Dark Knight. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen seems like the odds-on favorite at this point to take the 2009 box office crown, but the rest of the field seems to be fairly well spread out. Last year there were plenty of huge hits (Iron Man, Indiana Jones, Hancock, Wall-E), plenty of surprise hits (Sex and the City, Mamma Mia!, The Strangers), and quite a few major disasters (Speed Racer, Prince Caspian, The Love Guru, Meet Dave, The Clone Wars). It’s difficult to suss out beforehand which title will fall into which group, especially this summer, which is just as rife with sequels, remakes and adaptations as any summer before it.

I remember thinking a year ago that Iron Man, though it looked cool and had the benefit of the leadoff spot in the summer (something that has been occupied by Marvel fairly consistently this decade, including Iron Man 2 in this spot next year), probably didn’t have the fan base to reach $300 million. Time proved me wrong, as it belted out over $318 million domestically ($582 million worldwide) and made Robert Downey Jr. a bona fide movie star again.

But even though the main character of X-Men Origins: Wolverine is a tested, tried-and-true character from past Marvel films, I can’t help but feel the same reservations that I did twelve months ago. Yes, the three X-Men films made over $1.1 billion; yes, Wolverine was arguably the most fascinating and charismatic character in what was definitely the largest “ensemble” of superheroes ever confined to one (or three) films. And yes, Hugh Jackman is arguably the biggest actor from that series. Oh, what am I talking about? Of course he is! He just hosted the friggin’ Oscars, for Pete’s sake!

The question is: can the back-story of the mutant Logan draw as sizable a crowd as it probably should, especially after Brett Ratner ran the X-Men series into the ground with its last installment? Well, I’m not going to assume either towering success or dismal failure at this point. I will speculate that it must earn at least $250 million to be considered successful (or sequel-worthy, if that’s even possible), and $300 million is usually the watermark that most films of this nature shoot for in order to make the execs start planning further sequels and spinoffs.

If you’ve seen the X-Men films or read any of the comic books (the character has been around for three decades), you’ll know that before Wolverine became a member of Prof. Xavier’s merry band of mutants, he was known as simply Logan, a Canadian native who was born many many years ago. His mutant healing abilities apparently include a drastic slowing of the aging process (which is a good way to have Jackman not have to be made up to look much younger). Along the way, he meets Col. William Stryker, who recruits Logan into the mysterious “Weapon X” program, where his entire skeletal structure is infused with adamantium (the hardest substance known to man), including razor-sharp claws that would protrude from his hands on command.

I won’t go too much deeper into the plot, as much of it is unknown to me (by choice). I do know that quite a few of Marvel’s more memorable mutant characters will also be present including: Sabretooth (Liev Schreiber), Logan’s half-brother and bitter rival; Gambit (Taylor Kitsch), the Cajun thief who has the ability to infuse whatever he touches with explosive energy; Deadpool (Ryan Reynolds), a wisecracking mercenary who can heal like Wolverine; John Wraith (will.i.am), a teleporting mutant; and Emma Frost (Tahyna Tozzi), a telepath who can turn her skin as hard as diamond. There will also be a cameo appearance from Cyclops, from what I’ve heard.

This very ambitious project is being helmed by Gavin Hood (who bombed with Rendition in 2007), who reportedly grappled with Fox Pictures on the direction of the film, so much so that the project came perilously close to being scrapped or delayed. All I can say is, I hope the final product is something that will keep Marvel’s hot streak going into next year, when they continue the Avengers series of movies with Thor.

Early tracking indicates that Wolverine could bring in over $80 million in its first three days, and judging by the tremendous buzz that has already been built, I think that’s an entirely plausible figure, no matter how many alleged or illicit copies of the final print have been leaked online. But does it have the juice to reach the same heights that Iron Man did? I remain skeptical. First of all, Iron Man had the benefit of being followed by Speed Racer and Prince Caspian, neither of whom offered much in the way of competition. Should Star Trek and/or Angels and Demons fare better, Wolverine may have a tougher time getting to that coveted $300 million mark than one might think.

In the soon-to-begin May-to-July leagues, Wolverine will run you $35 in Ultimate leagues and $38 in Box Office. I think it will pull in thirteen Top 5 points, eight PTA, a rating of 7.7 and a total of $275 million before it runs out of gas. It’s a great leadoff hitter for your roster, a typically balls-out Marvel superhero flick, and there is little or no way that this will hurt your chances for victory.

Believe it or not, there are other films to talk about. Along with the blockbusters, you also have to expect a fair amount of counter-programming, smaller films that serve as viable alternatives to the big boys: romantic comedies, horror movies and musicals usually fill that gap. Looking to fill theaters across the hall from Wolverine is Ghosts of Girlfriends Past, a romantic comedy from New Line Cinema.

Directed by Mark Waters (Mean Girls, Freaky Friday), Ghosts’ central character is Connor Mead (Matthew McGonaughey), an abject womanizer who shuns commitment the way a child shuns broccoli. However, while attending the wedding of his younger brother (Breckin Meyer), Connor is visited, Christmas Carol-style, by the specter of his deceased Uncle Wayne, a former playboy and Connor’s mentor.

In true Dickensian fashion, you can probably guess the rest of the story: he is visited by three ghosts (Emma Stone, Noureen DeWulf and Amanda Walsh) who guide him through his rather checkered romantic history, leading him to realize that not pursuing the girl he fell in love with as a child (Jennifer Garner) is what led to his current shallow and loveless existence.

I guess this an interesting take on the classic tale (which hasn’t been modernized this precisely since Scrooged back in 1988). McGonaughey did fairly well in his last rom-com, Fool’s Gold, which made a respectable $70 million in spring of 2008. Plus, this has the benefit of being the only romantic comedy for a good long while, and with some good buzz (something that helped He’s Just Not That Into You to over $90 million a few months ago), Ghosts of Girlfriends Past could give you a lot of bang for your buck.

For $13 (in both leagues), I envision nine Top 5 points, perhaps a couple of PTA, a rating around 6.3 and somewhere in the neighborhood of $70 million. If you decide not to fill up your summer roster with all blockbusters, this could definitely be one to take. It may not give you as good a return as What Happens in Vegas did last May, but it’s still a worthy pick.

Last December, the animated picture Delgo set a new mark for indifference, as it flopped with an OW of less than $500,000 despite opening in over 1,000 theaters. I can’t help but see some similarities between Delgo and Battle For Terra when I see the trailer for the latter, but I have to hope that there is at least SOME audience for this film.

Brought to us by MeniThings Productions (this is their first theatrical release), Terra is set in the future, where Earth has been destroyed and the last vestiges of humanity are looking for a new world to colonize before their ships run out of oxygen and supplies. They turn their sights on the planet Terra, where a peaceful alien race currently lives. As you can imagine, the leaders of humanity, borne out of desperation and fear, decide to use their superior technology and aggressiveness to try to take Terra by force. This does not sit well with the local populace.

Making humans the bad guys… quite a novel approach. This film features the voice talents of Evan Rachel Wood, Brian Cox, Luke Wilson, Justin Long, Amanda Peet, Dennis Quaid, Chris Evans and Danny Glover. This is not bad, as casts go, but remember that Delgo had almost as impressive a cast, and we know how that story ended.

I’ve seen a few trailers, posters and commercials, but other than that, I’ve not seen a lot of publicity for this film, which is why it’s priced at a very low $5 in the May Ultimate leagues ($4 in Box Office). It will probably need $10 million to crack the Top 5 on its OW, and I’m not sure it has that in it. There won’t be any PTA, and the User Rating is probably non-negotiable. I think $20 million is the on-drugs-optimistic best prediction for Battle For Terra, though it could very well struggle to make even half that. There’s no way I’d take it in Ultimate, and I think that for the same amount of dough, you could do better with titles like Dance Flick or Next Day Air. Pass on this one.

My predictions for the weekend of May 1-3, 2009:

1. X-Men Origins: Wolverine - $78 million
2. Ghosts of Girlfriends Past - $17 million
3. Obsessed - $10 million
4. The Soloist - $8 million
5. Battle For Terra - $7 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. There are only two wide-release films being released in the next two weeks, so I may take a short break from columnizing and just tackle both at once in a fortnight. The first will be J.J. Abrams’ gutsy Star Trek, where we go all the way back to the beginning of the story for Kirk, Spock and the rest of the crew of the ORIGINAL U.S.S. Enterprise; and Angels and Demons, a prequel to The Da Vinci Code, a big hit from a few summers ago and reprising Tom Hanks in the role of Robert Langdon, a symbologist who is called in by the Vatican to help discern the origin of a possible terrorist plot against them.

Later!

Last time I checked, Battle For Terra had a 7.7 IMDb rating. So if you want points in that category, I say take it.

Uh, okay. Still think there are better picks. And the Rating could easily go down.

I think this summer will be the first time where the big 2nd weekend movie (Star Trek) will outgross the lead-off of May (Wolverine).

Star Trek is stealing all the thunder, you can't turn on the TV without seeing another TV spot.

And I don't know why all the studios are afraid to counterprogram against Angels & Demons, that's a niche audience if I've ever seen one. Great spot for a big horror movie, like Drag Me To Hell, or a comedy, like The Hangover.

My predictions:

Wolverine - $71 mill
Ghosts of Girlfriends Past - $23 mill
Obsessed - $13 mill
Battle for Terra - $9 mill

I'm going big with Wolverine. I think the drops last week showed the anticipation levels. Plus it is already tracking very well.

Wolverine - 95M
Ghosts - 19M
Obsessed - 11M


Battle for Terra - 5M

They're considering a "sequel" to X-Men Origins: Wolverine already, it just won't have Wolverine in it. They're planning on taking the X-Men characters and making multiple Origins stories. Next up, if this succeeds, is X-Men Origins: Magneto.

Cyclops is in half of the preview, so its probably a little more than a cameo I would guess?

Dickens was modernized last year, but it didn't count because it was done by Republicans (An American Carol).

I think Terra has had a pretty good marketing campaign. It's all over Nickelodeon, though I'm not sure that Spongebob fans are the target audience.

Yea, I read about Magneto a while ago, I think that could be really interesting too. They are also doing X-Men: First Class, I wonder which we'll get to see first.

i believe Magneto has been in the works since even before Wolverine Origins got started.. personally, a Magneto movie sounds kinda boring

Hopefully they don't do a Rogue Orgins.

packpaljs wrote:Hopefully they don't do a Rogue Orgins.

personally I really like rogue and the first xmen is kind of a rouge origins except the film isnt centered on her entirely

Sorry, that was my sad attempt at a joke because I feel X-Men kinda was an Rouge Orgins.

packpaljs wrote:Sorry, that was my sad attempt at a joke because I feel X-Men kinda was an Rouge Orgins.

lol, oh well, in that case, it was kinda funny. I get xmen wasn't a great film but i really liked it. X3 was a crap film, but I still kinda liked it

Yeah, I recently rewatched 1 and I still really enjoy it. I've only seen 2 and 3 once. From what I remember 2 was good, not as good as 1, but 3 was crap and I really hope this new one is better.