Apr 10th Tracking

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Apr 10th Tracking

Post by JackO on Tue Apr 07, 2009 6:33 am

MTC 4/10
-- notfabio, Apr 6, 14:27
Hannah: 23
Observe: 15
Dragon: 6
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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by BarcaRulz on Tue Apr 07, 2009 6:40 am

I honestly though Observe and Report had a very good chance of opening 20+, but that is a discouraging number, and after having JUST seen the trailer i can see why a little bit.

Not a big fan of what i've seen so far.

Hopefully Dragonball opens even smaller than that. I want it to crash, burn, then burn some more.

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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by Buscemi on Tue Apr 07, 2009 6:46 am

I think the $6 million number is being generous. I see opening similar to the recent Street Fighter movie (about $4 million but with a much lower per-theatre average).

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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by IPKI$$ on Tue Apr 07, 2009 6:48 am

It's still real real early in the week...these are all just based around hype as of right now.
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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Tue Apr 07, 2009 9:20 am

I hope Observe & Report does well, even though I know it won't.

I see it like this:

1 - Fast & Furious - $34 mill

2 - Hannah Montana - $25 mill

3 - Observe & Report - $17 mill

4 - MvA - $15 mill

5 - Dragonball - $7 mill
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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by mfrendo on Tue Apr 07, 2009 10:26 am

I kinda see it like you do, Banks, but let's face it everyone...this year has proven that you can't predict what the hell's going to happen...
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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Tue Apr 07, 2009 11:05 am

mfrendo wrote:I kinda see it like you do, Banks, but let's face it everyone...this year has proven that you can't predict what the hell's going to happen...

Very true. After the 4th Fast & Furious movie has a bigger OW than Watchmen and Quantum of Solace (and biggest of the year) and the Kevin James mall cop movie making almost $150 million, predictions are futile.

Watch 17 Again get an OW of $50 million and a total of $250 mill....
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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by brockman81 on Tue Apr 07, 2009 6:34 pm

I would like if 17 Again did that well, as I have it on a lot of my slates...
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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by W on Tue Apr 07, 2009 8:30 pm

mfrendo wrote:I kinda see it like you do, Banks, but let's face it everyone...this year has proven that you can't predict what the hell's going to happen...

I predicted it. Maybe not the exact number, but I said a long while ago that this title would be WELL worth it. My reasoning at the time is that if it didn't do well, the floor was $90 M.

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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by nickb1016 on Wed Apr 08, 2009 12:00 am

I wouldn't put Hannah Montana down too far. The Jonas Brothers situation is going to cause many to underestimate it, but I still feel this can open around 30-35 million.

Fast and Furious is going to be a very interesting one to watch. It could be very front loaded but it seems to have positive word of mouth. It has an IMDB of 7.2 and a Cinemascore of an A. Its 19% fall from friday to saturday is large but not disasterous for a movie like this. It also brought in a 5.1 million monday...in April. That puts it on pace for a an opening week close to 90 million. With easter weekend helping to soften the fall, tons of news coverage, and decent word of mouth this could stay above 30million which would be quite an accomplishment.

Observe and Report would likely open over 20 million were it not for the Fast and Furious taking away much of the audience. Both Seth Rogen and Anna Farris have shown decent drawing power so it should end up with a 15-20 million opening weekend.

As for Dragonball Z, it is even bombing in asian markets. This one is going to end up in the same range as Street Fighter.

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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by brockman81 on Wed Apr 08, 2009 12:05 am

Looks is it's going to be a ronery time in the theater for anyone who goes to see Dragonball...






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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by transformers2 on Wed Apr 08, 2009 12:50 am

and that hefty fuckin fee is a buck o five and if you dont pay your buck o five who will. Smile anyway Observe and Report should be good for 18-20 mill weekend its getting good advertising and the trailer has getting a pretty good reaction. Dragonball will tank hard i see it doing a little bit better than Street Fighter. Unsure about Hannah Montana it could go either way.
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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by JackO on Wed Apr 08, 2009 1:07 am

notfabio report:RS
HANNAH: Mid 20's
OBSERVE AND REPORT: Mid Teens
DRAGONBALL: Between 5-7

FUTURE:
(Disclaimer: Rival services are pegging STATE OF PLAY lower and OBSESSED/SOLOIST much closer to each other and sizably lower)

CRANK: Between 10-12
17 AGAIN: Between 16-18
STATE OF PLAY: Low 20's
OBSESSED: Between 26-29
SOLOIST: Between 9-11
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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by JackO on Wed Apr 08, 2009 1:09 am

Obessed looks like a breakout and runaway hit.
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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by undeadmonkey on Wed Apr 08, 2009 1:54 am

How is Obsessed so high? I just dont see the appeal.

Where there no numbers for Fighting?
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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by BarcaRulz on Wed Apr 08, 2009 2:13 am

I seriously doubt Obsessed will open that high. If you look at the disclaimer, it says that others have it much lower than that.

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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by geezer9687 on Wed Apr 08, 2009 2:17 am

Observe and Report will be above 20 million. Seth Rogen is a star and the advertising has been through the roof. also, God damn how in the hell can Obsessed be tracking that high? I mean, sure it is good for its current price but no fuckin way it comes close to those numbers.

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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by J.I. on Wed Apr 08, 2009 3:48 am

undeadmonkey wrote:How is Obsessed so high? I just dont see the appeal.
Because RS that far out is useless.

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:4 - MvA - $15 mill
You really think MvA is going to have that big of a drop?

And I think Dragonball Evolution will do OK, since it is being marketed pretty heavily to kids. $7-9 million
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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by W on Wed Apr 08, 2009 4:49 am

JackO wrote:Obessed looks like a breakout and runaway hit.

I have been saying this for over a month, maybe two. It's my next "I called it!" selection. Ali Larter and Beyonce in a movie-long catfight should peak many people's interest...

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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by J-Man on Wed Apr 08, 2009 4:55 am

I saw an early screening of Observe and Report last night, and even if it opens decent money, I'm not sure it'll have far reaching appeal. I don't think it will be a huge success, probably slightly bigger than Rogan's last film Zack and Miri Make a Porno. Perhaps I'm saying this though because I thought Z&M was going to be pretty big.

On a side note, the film was alright. I don't know if there was enough humour in the film to sustain a larger audience expecting to have laugh after laugh (or at least, that's what most expect from Rogan/fake Apatow films I think) - it was more a character study mixed in with some humour. The writing was the highlight of the film, I was intrigued by the central character and his actions, and perhaps would have enjoyed a drama more than a comedy about him.

Also, I haven't even seen a trailer for Obsessed, how can it be tracking so damn high? I may just have to pick it up on a few slates.

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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by NSpan on Wed Apr 08, 2009 4:56 am

i'll bet eight gajillion dollars that O&R does way better than Z&M... kevin smith is box office poison


edit: damn, i hate when people make super fuckin VAGUE predictions and then act like they knew what's up when it sorta comes true.. i'll say $46M when things are all said and done.. (that's 150% the dough Z&M brought in..)


Last edited by NSpan on Wed Apr 08, 2009 5:10 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by geezer9687 on Wed Apr 08, 2009 5:01 am

I agree with you on that NSpan, but not because of Kevin Smith, more because this one isn't about people making a porno. Its about a mall cop. Mall cops are big right now.

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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by Buscemi on Wed Apr 08, 2009 5:12 am

Obsessed reminds me more of a lesser version of Lakeview Terrace (which made $40 million last September). But that may be because of the same writer and studio.

I'd say $25 million total.

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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by NSpan on Wed Apr 08, 2009 5:18 am

if this helps anyone: i have NO IDEA what Obsessed is.. to my knowledge, this is the first i've ever even heard of it.. i shall IMDB it now

...

yeah, checks out... never heard of that shit

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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by W on Wed Apr 08, 2009 5:46 am

Ali Larter wants to do it with Beyonce's man. Beyonce wants to kick her ass. Basically that's it. I've seen a good amount of previews on tv for over a month now.

BTW: I don't know what this movie will do, but I was predicting at least $40-50 M and I do think it could be a breakout from no where smash. When I say "I called it", I mean that there's no way that a film isn't going to be worth its price tag.

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