Apr 10th Tracking

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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by geezer9687 on Wed Apr 08, 2009 6:11 am

Yeah, I see it making around 35-40 total, which is a good deal at its price, at least in the Box Office Game.

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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by W on Wed Apr 08, 2009 6:28 am

It'll be bigger than that. $40 M is the floor is what I was saying.

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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by geezer9687 on Wed Apr 08, 2009 6:41 am

Remember, this is historically one of the weakest weekends of the entire year, and it has Wolverine coming out right after it. Plus the weekend is somewhat crowded. Temper your expectations just a little bit.

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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by transformers2 on Wed Apr 08, 2009 6:50 am

Holy hell Obessed tracking 26-29 no way it will do that much. Anyway the reason Zack and Miri failed was because it was about making a porno don't think Kevin Smith was a factor in that. Observe and Report will do better for sure because its has a more accesible plot and has gotten more advertising.
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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by W on Wed Apr 08, 2009 6:55 am

We'll see when Obsessed wins its weekend and holds decent its second weekend. It'll hit the bottom end of Geezer's prediction before the third weekend.

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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by J-Man on Wed Apr 08, 2009 7:03 am

NSpan wrote:i'll bet eight gajillion dollars that O&R does way better than Z&M... kevin smith is box office poison


edit: damn, i hate when people make super fuckin VAGUE predictions and then act like they knew what's up when it sorta comes true.. i'll say $46M when things are all said and done.. (that's 150% the dough Z&M brought in..)

Sorry, should have been more specific for you, I predict 16M/40M +/- 2M, which I would list as slightly better than Z&M. And I certainly don't think I act like I know what's up, quite the contrary, I admit failure more often (see: Pre and Post Watchmen posts or my utter surprise at F&F).

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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by JackO on Wed Apr 08, 2009 7:06 am

Eh, I think Obsessed will defintely hold well in it's second weekend. I don't think it'll open 30+ but it could hit 20+. I mean FF4 just hit 70 freakin million in April! That opening might hurt Wolvie a bit too.
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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by NSpan on Wed Apr 08, 2009 7:56 am

J-Man wrote:
NSpan wrote:i'll bet eight gajillion dollars that O&R does way better than Z&M... kevin smith is box office poison


edit: damn, i hate when people make super fuckin VAGUE predictions and then act like they knew what's up when it sorta comes true.. i'll say $46M when things are all said and done.. (that's 150% the dough Z&M brought in..)

Sorry, should have been more specific for you, I predict 16M/40M +/- 2M, which I would list as slightly better than Z&M. And I certainly don't think I act like I know what's up, quite the contrary, I admit failure more often (see: Pre and Post Watchmen posts or my utter surprise at F&F).
haha, i honestly didn't have anyone specific in mind when i said that..

(and, anyway, i'm just as guilty of it as anyone!)

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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by geezer9687 on Wed Apr 08, 2009 8:07 am

yeah, I actually thought that you were sarcastically commenting on yourself NSpan.

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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by IPKI$$ on Wed Apr 08, 2009 10:46 am

I'll weigh in on this...it's easter. The big movies this weekend will be those that cater to families...Expect Hannah Montana and MvA to lead this weekend, with F&F dropping off quite a bit. Observe and Report will open rather weak and have definite staying power, but (and as much as I'd hate to stroke W.'s ego here,) Obsessed is the silent killer. It's got two TV stars in it, and how many times do we have to learn not to underestimate the power of TV? Kevin James ring any bells? Obsessed will open at around probably $16-20m on it's way to about $50m total.
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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by Buscemi on Wed Apr 08, 2009 11:06 am

Ipkiss, you obviously forgot about David Duchovny, David Caruso and the various numbers of TV actors who attempted film careers and failed.

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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by Shrykespeare on Wed Apr 08, 2009 12:48 pm

Boussh, do you EVER look at the glass half full?

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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by Buscemi on Wed Apr 08, 2009 1:24 pm

You can't when the people that you like are set up to fail and the people that you hate are allowed to pass.

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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by brockman81 on Wed Apr 08, 2009 6:18 pm

Even if Obsessed does well in the Box Office dept. I just can't see it getting a good imdb score...I would say it will hover somewhere around the low 5's to high 4's...I mean let's be honest with each other, the movie looks fucking terrible.
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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by W on Wed Apr 08, 2009 7:04 pm

Buscemi wrote:Ipkiss, you obviously forgot about David Duchovny, David Caruso and the various numbers of TV actors who attempted film careers and failed.

How about Bruce Willis, Robin Williams, George Clooney, Jim Carey, Denzel Washington, and Will Smith? [sarcasm]Didn't they do a couple of films?[/sarcasm] And how about the 1000 or so SNL actors that went up to the big leagues? The film industry is like sports in that you can have a great career in the lower levels (NCAA, minor leagues) but sometimes success in one area doesn't transfer. Other times, you become a giant success.

Ali Larter has done movies way before she was on Heroes and that guy from "The Wire" doesn't really even factor into the equation much.

I'll tell you what Obsessed has. It's got one of the biggest entertainers out there who just happens to be much of America's dream girl. It has her in a fight with a woman that has her own fair share of men who would give their left arm to see her in a catfight. I'm not saying it'll destory the box office, but I don't see it making a penny under 40 M. If I'd have to put a range on it, it'd be $50-70 M.

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W can i state that you are a genius. I dont know how you do it dude. They should have doing the tracking instead of those other idiots. - transformers2
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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by Buscemi on Wed Apr 08, 2009 7:44 pm

But has Beyonce had a breakout role yet (not counting Dreamgirls since that was an ensemble piece and Jennifer Hudson got the breakout role there)? Right now, she's just a more fortunate Jennifer Lopez. Successful as a singer but not really setting the box office on fire.

I get the idea that Ali Larter's time has passed. Sure she's on Heroes but does anyone remember her for anything other than the whipped cream bikini scene in Varsity Blues?

And we already got a catfight movie this year. It was called Bride Wars and it disappointed.

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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by brockman81 on Wed Apr 08, 2009 7:48 pm

I'm Beyonce'd out...everywhere you look you see Beyonce...commercials, movies, tv shows, concerts, award shows (where she lip syncs, lame!), magazines, the internet.......for crying out loud somebody please make Beyonce go away!!!!! And no I don't mean to have someone off her...but can't she just take a break?
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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by W on Wed Apr 08, 2009 8:11 pm

We shall see yet again Buscemi. hopefully Dragonball will hit just over $6 M this weekend and Obsessed opens up with at least $15-18 M. Then it'll be three to zip W over Buscemi.

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W can i state that you are a genius. I dont know how you do it dude. They should have doing the tracking instead of those other idiots. - transformers2
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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by geezer9687 on Wed Apr 08, 2009 8:28 pm

mmmmm, Ali Larter whipped cream bikini scene.... one of the greatest scenes in cinematic history.

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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by W on Wed Apr 08, 2009 8:32 pm

Hell, my daughter is watching cartoons and they just said Beyonce is going to be on Wow Wow Wubzy... "Everywhere" is probably an understatement.

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... W ... is fascinating. No other word for it. - Roger Ebert

W can i state that you are a genius. I dont know how you do it dude. They should have doing the tracking instead of those other idiots. - transformers2
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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by BanksIsDaFuture on Thu Apr 09, 2009 12:29 am

I agree with W. - Obsessed will end up anywhere between $50-$70, winning its OW and being 2nd or 3rd the next weekend (depending on how well Ghosts of Girlfriend's Past does).

And it looks like people are letting their personal opinions factor into their predictions. This almost always is a mistake, most recently with Buscemi's severe hatred for F&F. (Not picking on you B, it's just the first one that came to mind)

Didn't everyone say that America was Madea'd out and Tyler Perry should learn a new trick? And didn't Madea have one of the biggest OWs of the year and is the highest grossing Tyler Perry movie to date?

Don't underestimate the buying power of Black America, I think they'll be the driving force behind Obsessed's success (and let's forget Notorious ever happened, even though it was a great movie.)
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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by J.I. on Thu Apr 09, 2009 12:39 am

Anyone looking at this week's box office? Tuesday was insane. MvA is going to hit $200 million if it keeps this up. It had over $3.5 million on Tuesday! Everything increased except for F&F.
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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by brockman81 on Thu Apr 09, 2009 12:59 am

Those are bigger numbers than the Monday/Tuesday following its opening weekend! Looks like it's going to have great legs.
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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by Buscemi on Thu Apr 09, 2009 1:04 am

I really don't see much of a black appeal in the ads. I see the ads as trying to appeal to a white demographic, especially to fans of erotic thrillers (though this film is PG-13) or people who liked Lakeview Terrace.

The ads are mainly focused towards Ali Larter's character (even the website promotion is using her as the focal point) and her attempts to woo Idris Elba. Meanwhile, Beyonce is treated as more of a supporting character.

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Re: Apr 10th Tracking

Post by mfrendo on Thu Apr 09, 2009 5:05 am

brockman81 wrote:Those are bigger numbers than the Monday/Tuesday following its opening weekend! Looks like it's going to have great legs.

This is Spring Break for most elementary schools, so the numbers will prob be abnormally high this week.
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