SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 3/13: Race to Witch Mountain, Last House on the Left, Miss March

Huzzah. If you’re like me, you’re starting to get all angst-y about this weekend’s release of Watchmen, for the simple fact that negative things are starting, little by little, to trickle in about this year’s first hype-monster. Whether it be early reviews (thanks a lot, six!), or the fact that not one IMAX showing has sold out yet, I am beginning to wonder whether spending more than one-third of my budget on this film will be worth it. Oh, it’ll have a decent User Rating, and will probably have quite a few Top 5 points, but at this point, I’m beginning to wonder whether or not it will repeat at #1 in its second week.

Its second week, of course, is the weekend beginning Friday, March 13th, which will see the release of three more wide-release films, one of which seems to have an ever-increasing chance of supplanting Zack Snyder’s baby at the top of the box office charts. And the beauty of it is, it only costs half as much. But I’ll get to that in a bit.

As of this moment, five people who entered the Super Leagues, it would appear, have dropped out: Fixius, hasselhoff54, spyspeeder7, TheJman and Tonberry3001. As a result, in Round One of the Ultimate leagues, the Red Zone has effectively shrunk from seven spots to two in the FY tournament, and from eleven to six in the HY. In the Box Office tournaments, the FY Red Zone has dwindled from eight to five, and from thirteen to ten in the HY. What this means is, you’ll have to REALLY have screwed the proverbial pooch to be eliminated in the first round. But there’s still a month to go before we can determine who that is.

For now, I’ll keep you occupied by talking about the films of 3/13, which are comprised of a family action/adventure film, a horror film and a bawdy sex comedy. The one with the biggest chance of success is definitely Race to Witch Mountain (PG), a promising-looking Disney vehicle which is a remake-slash-continuation of the 1975 Disney movie Escape to Witch Mountain, starring Eddie Albert, Ray Milland and Donald Pleasance.

Taking the lead in this film is Dwayne (formerly “The Rock”) Johnson, who plays Las Vegas cab driver Jack Bruno, who teams up with a discredited astrophysicist (Carla Gugino) in an attempt to rescue two extraterrestrial siblings (Bridge to Terabithia's Annasophia Robb and The Seeker's Alexander Ludwig) from the hands of a mysterious villain (Munich’s Ciaran Hinds), and return them to their spacecraft, which is ensconced within the even more mysterious Witch Mountain.

From viewing the trailer, there looks to be plenty of action and cool effects, which, coupled with the fact that it IS a Disney movie, means that this one could be a big hit in the making. It’s rated PG, which means that it’s suitable for all audiences, and Johnson has already proved that he can carry a Disney film, having led The Game Plan to a cool $90 million output in fall of 2007.

Disney tends to market its family films VERY well; case in point, even a dog (pun intended) like Beverly Hills Chihuahua came a few inches from blockbuster status itself. The question is, will it be able to somehow climb over fanboy-favorite Watchmen, which will be in only its second week? As I said earlier, it’s beginning to look more and more possible.

Given the ginormous success of Paul Blart: Mall Cop, which defied all logic and busted out over $120 million in receipts despite a January release, it’s fair to say that harmless family comedy is the solidest genre to pick right now. I think that Witch Mountain can definitely pull $40 million on its opening weekend, which, unless Watchmen just goes ape-poo and also manages to avoid a huge second-week drop, the Johnson-plus-Disney pairing will have its second hit.

This film will also have decent, if not great, legs, as most family films do; the trouble is, two weeks down the road, DreamWorks latest animated behemoth, Monsters vs. Aliens, looms. How that will affect the further success of Witch Mountain remains to be seen, but I predict $100 million, eight Top 5 points, four PTA and a User Rating around 6.0. And if it really catches fire on the back of a huge Watchmen dropoff, it could do even better than that, which means that for the price of $19 in both Ultimate and Box Office leagues, you could have a really terrific #2 or #3 pick on your slate.

Did anyone of you see Vacancy? Or Funny Games? Or The Strangers? If you didn’t see all of them, don’t worry, they’re basically all the same film, with basically the same premise: a young couple at a remote vacation home (or motel) are surrounded/trapped/terrorized by a couple/trio/gang of bad guys/girls, and must find a way to escape with their lives.

The Last House on the Left (R), the latest outing from Rogue Pictures, was able to get horror magnate Wes Craven (who directed the original 1972 version of this film), to produce this film, which is directed by Dennis Iliadis. The plot: on the same night that she arrives with her parents and her best friend at a remote house on Collingwood Lake, a young girl named Mari (Superhero Movie's Sara Paxton) is kidnapped by an escaped prisoner and his gang. Left for dead, her only hope is to make it back to her parents (Tony Goldwyn and Monica Potter), who unwittingly let her attackers seek shelter at their house after she disappeared. An all-growed-up Spencer Treat Clark (Gladiator) also co-stars.

Most movies dubbed “horror” films fall into one of two categories; those with supernatural or extraterrestrial forces at work, and those that don’t. Last House definitely falls into the latter category, with a plain old good guys vs. bad guys formula that should offer plenty of tension and jump-out-at-you scares, and if you read between the lines in Steve Mason’s latest column, tracking seems to be pretty good for this film. I, on the other hand, remain skeptical.

Actually, I really have no idea how well this film is going to do. Are audiences really clamoring for more of this particular niche, or it is just different enough to make a splash? This uncertainty is the reason that this title is priced at only $6 in both Ultimate and Box Office leagues. Even with an opening of only $8 million or so, it should be good enough for 3rd place on its opening weekend (unless Slumdog is still doing bonzo numbers). I highly doubt that it will spend more than one week in the Top 5, though, and PTA will probably max out at one or two at the most. User Rating, if reviews are good, could approach 6.5, but critical pans could result in a score below 5.0.

Most people playing the March leagues will have had at least two of the blockbusters on their roster (which may or may not include Watchmen), but you’ve got to fill that roster out with a few cheap picks, and this one could be one that produces for you. I’m just not feeling it, is all.

A film that I’m “feeling” even less is Miss March (R). another teen sex comedy following hot on the heels of the barely-received Fired Up. This is directed by and stars Trevor Moore and Zach Cregger, who also happen to be the leaders of the New York comedy troupe known as “The Whitest Kids U’ Know”. Yeah, I’ve never heard of them either.

Cregger plays Eugene, a good-looking guy who plans to “do it” with his girlfriend Cindi for the first time on his prom night. Regrettably, he suffers a tragic accident and ends up in a coma for four years. After being woken up by his sex-obsessed friend Tucker (Moore), he is informed that his sweetie is Hugh Hefner’s latest Playboy centerfold. Ooh, burn. His blood runs cold, his memory has just been sold… (And if you don't get that reference, simply CLICK HERE.)

Thus begins the road trip. Much like last fall’s barely-received Sex Drive (which looked much, MUCH funnier than this one judging by the trailers), our two heroes journey cross-country to the Playboy Mansion so that Eugene can… I don’t know, get some? Along the way, hijinks, double entendres and frustratingly awful near-misses will no doubt ensue.

Let me nutshell it for you: Fired Up amassed only $5.4 million on its opening weekend, good enough for a pitiful 9th place en route to probably around $15 million. Sex Drive pulled in only $3.6 million (also good enough for only ninth place) en route to a miserable $8 million overall. And if Miss March (formerly Miss February and Playboys) manages to outstrip (heh) this pair of "classics" by a country mile, I will be… well, surprised, anyway.

A miniscule $3 is all this will run you in Ultimate, but for no PTA points, no Top 5 and a terrible User Rating, is it even worth it? In Box Office, it’s a throwaway at only $4, but I have to believe that there are better choices (like The Haunting in Connecticut, for example). Save this one for DVD. Or cable. Or a garage sale next year.

My predictions for the weekend of March 13-15, 2009:

1. Race to Witch Mountain - $41 million
2. Watchmen - $27 million
3. Last House on the Left - $8 million
4. Slumdog Millionaire - $7 million
5. Taken - $5 million


Well, that will do it for this week. Next week, I’ll be back with the films of March 20th, all of which look intriguing, if for very different reasons: I Love You, Man, a brom-com (hey, I like that!) starring rising star Paul Rudd and Jason Segel; Duplicity, a corporate espionage dramedy starring Clive Owen and Julia Roberts; and Knowing, a creepy-looking thriller starring the Teflon-coated Nicolas Cage.

Congratulations to the winners of the December Regulars leagues, the very first leagues to be formed under the New Fantaverse Flag: englishozzy, who edged out JohnErle and undeadmonkey by the narrowest of margins to claim victory in the “Tim Allen” league. But don’t go crying for JohnErle too much, as he put the whoopin’ stick to the rest of the field in the “Under New Management” Box Office league, claiming victory by and incredible $87 million over second-place finisher Buscemi. (I got third.)

Later!

Another good column shrykey

For the openers, I'll predict:

Race To Witch Mountain $38 million
The Last House On The Left $15 million (hey, The Unborn managed a $20 million opening despite poor reception and that was from the same company)
Miss March $2 million

As for Watchmen: $34 million

Buscemi wrote:As for Watchmen: $34 million

That would be a great hold.

But keep in mind that I'm predicting $71 million on opening weekend. So that would be a 52% drop.

This is a comic geek driven movie, expect a much bigger drop than 52%. I think more in the region of 60-65%. Dammit, thats me for today, gotta think of a milestone post....

silversurfer19 wrote:Dammit, thats me for today, gotta think of a milestone post....

ha, now's our chance! kick 'em while he's down..

SURFER IS TOTALLY GAY!!

LMAO ROFL!!!!

NSpan, you are a genius of comic precision.

silversurfer19 wrote:This is a comic geek driven movie, expect a much bigger drop than 52%. I think more in the region of 60-65%. Dammit, thats me for today, gotta think of a milestone post....

You really think it'll fall that much? 300, V for Vendetta and Sin City, moves with connections to Watchmen (All March openings, 300 by Snyder with similar look, V for Ven. an Alan Moore property and an R rating, Sin City R rating), fell less than 55% (53.6% for 300, 51.9% for V, and 51.4% for SC). I think that Watchmen will be able to hold 45% its second weekend. Its not like there is much R rated competition.

Shit, now with the time changes today, my 3am bedtime are now 4am. Crap.

Man, I hope LHOTL does well. I can't wait to see if they can match up with the original.

As for the weekend numbers, I'd say:

1 - Race To Witch Mountain - $35

2 - Watchmen - $26

3 - Last House On The Left - $18

4 - Slumdog - $9

5 - Taken - $6

FINAL PREDICTED BOX OFFICE FOR MARCH 13-15
1. NEW – Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) - $22.75M
2. Watchmen (Warner Bros) - $22.1M
3. NEW - The Last House on the Left (Universal) - $18.2M
4. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes to Jail (Lionsgate) - $5.7M
5. Taken (Fox) - $5.23M
6. NEW – Miss March (Fox Searchlight) - $5.13M
7. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $5.07M
8. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $2.59M
9. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) - $2.08M
10. Coraline (Focus) - $2.07M


Wow, looks like I way overestimated #1 and #2, and way underestimated #3. Thanks, Mase.