SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILM (!) OF 3/6: Watchmen

The moment has arrived. The moment that I have been simultaneously relishing and dreading. The moment where I break in the month of March 2009, with what is likely to be the first film of the year to crack $150 million. The moment where I talk about a little film called… ah, you know.

I’ve been relishing the release of Watchmen (R) ever since I first heard about it. Knowing that Zack Snyder, the guy behind the awesomely macho 300, was the one that would be bringing this extremely ambitious production to the big screen made it even more special. Plus, as an ardent fan of superhero-dom and a former collector of comic books, I was intrigued as hell.

But, regrettably, the graphic novel Watchmen, which was released in 1986 and has been hyped as “the most celebrated graphic novel of all time” somehow evaded my grasp. For whatever reason, I just never got into the series, which, I now understand, was my (extremely large) loss. And thus the dread; how can I effectively convey an analysis of this film, when just about everyone reading this column knows more about the subject than me?

If you have been a reader of, or a participant in, the now-legendary (and miles-long) thread entitled “’Watchmen’ March '09 release in jeopardy?”, you’ll realize just how big an event the release of this film is. I will, therefore, not go more than a few inches deep into the plot, characters and mythology regarding this film; neither will I rehash the rather lengthy and embarrassing imbroglio between Fox and Warner Brothers that came a hair’s-breadth from keeping this film in the can for good. So, lest I disappoint you faithful readers with my lack of knowledge and wayward dilettantism, I must sally forth with nothing but a layman’s analysis of this movie, which may just be the most cryptic and apocryphal of any film this side of this winter’s Oscar season.

The film takes place on an “alternate Universe” version of Earth in the year 1985; Richard Nixon is still president, the Cold War is near the breaking point, and, as you’ve surmised, superheroes exist. A group of these superheroes are known as Watchmen, and the whole group of them are forced to reunite after one of their own, “The Comedian” (Jeffrey Dean Morgan), is murdered. Leading the investigation is Rorschach (Jackie Earle Haley), who is so named because he wears a mask that is dotted with ink-blots that change with his emotional state.

The cast of the film is not exactly a who’s-who of known Hollywood commodities, but then, neither was 300, the film that made Gerard Butler a star. It includes Patrick Wilson (Lakeview Terrace) as “Night Owl II”, Malin Akerman (The Heartbreak Kid) as “Silk Spectre II”, Billy Crudup as the blue-and-glowing Dr. Manhattan, Matthew Goode (Brideshead Revisited) as Ozymandias, as well as Carla Gugino, Matt Frewer and Stephen McHattie.

To call the development of Watchmen, from its inception all the way through the final editing stage, chaotic would be an understatement. It has taken many years for this monster to make its way to the screen, and in that time, many directors and actors have been rumored to have been involved. But we are now only days away from it’s release, and I think I can speak for all involved when I say: it’s about (bleep) time.
In the just-completed pricing scheme of the upcoming March leagues, Watchmen will run you $38 in Ultimate leagues (which ties it for the most expensive property along with X-Men Origins: Wolverine) and $38 in Box Office leagues (where it is $2 less than Wolverine). In Ultimate, you obviously cannot have both of these films on your slate, so which is the better pick?

Well, one could argue that Wolverine is the better pick for a number of reasons: it has the lead-off spot in the summer schedule (the same spot that former monster hits like Spider-Man 3 and Iron Man occupied), it has a previous history of success on the big screen, a charismatic lead actor (who just got done hosting the Oscars), and is likely to have a lot more action and a less gloomy setting.

On the other hand, having a summer release means that a potential blockbuster (or even, perhaps, several) will be rising up to vie for that #1 spot every single week. But whereas Wolverine has almost surefire-blockbusters following it like Star Trek, Angels and Demons, Terminator: Salvation, Night at the Museum 2 and Up, Watchmen has only a Disney film (Race to Witch Mountain) one week later, a rom-com (I Love You Man), an espionage dramedy (Duplicity) and a creepy thriller (Knowing) two weeks later, and an animated 3-D DreamWorks offering (Monsters vs. Aliens) three weeks later. In other words, not nearly as much to worry about.

On the left foot, it IS rated R, which may indeed hurt its overall attendance after its opening weekend. R-rated films have done mega-success in the past, of course, including the aforementioned 300, which pulled in over $200 million starting on this exact date two years ago. Keep in mind, also, that given the sheer volume of people seeing this film that will have been aficionados of the comic book, this film will be scrutinized, pored over and nit-picked down to the molecular level. Early reports have said that Snyder has done a very good job crunching a volumes-long story down into a two-hour movie (with additional “Black Freighter” footage that will be available on the DVD), so let’s hope that critics are as kind.

And on the right foot, other than perhaps Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, you won’t find a single film coming out this year that has been as subject to as much hype or scrutiny as Watchmen; I shouldn’t need to tell you that films that have been hyped this much fail to live up to it 90% of the time (Dark Knight being the most recent exception), so if it is your choice to start the March season with this title and get out of the gate first, I have little doubt that it will not disappoint. Whether it will exceed expectations, on the other hand, remains a mystery.

Some early estimates have Watchmen opening in the $40 million range, where others think it may even top $70 mil in its first three days. I myself think it will open between $55 and $60 million, en route to a total take of $170 million by the end of the season. 300 had action, gore, and catch-phrases aplenty, and one didn’t have to have read the graphic novel to appreciate it. Watchmen, on the other hand, is much more textured, layered and deep a story. I think those who see it will truly appreciate Snyder’s efforts, but it won’t fill as many theaters as 300.

My predictions for the weekend of March 6-8, 2009:

1. Watchmen - $58 million
2. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes to Jail - $12 million
3. Jonas Brothers - $10 million
4. Coraline - $8 million
5. Slumdog Millionaire - $7 million

Well, that will be all for this week. Next week, I’ll have a slightly wider spectrum of films to talk about, including: Race to Witch Mountain, the latest Disney family-adventure outing featuring Dwayne “Not The Rock Anymore” Johnson as a cabbie who must return two extraterrestrial kids to their hidden spacecraft; Last House on the Left, the latest in a string of “couple-or-family-tormented-by-bad-guys-in-a-remote-location” films; and Miss March, a sex comedy about a guy who wakes up from a coma to find that his sweetheart is now Hugh Hefner’s latest centerfold. Yowch.

Congrats to all the Oscar winners, as well as the winners of the 1st Annual Fantaverse Critics’ Choice Awards. Remember to get your Round Three slates in!

Later!

Let's have a game. Who thinks they can predict Watchmen's OW within $1 million either way? I predict $58 million.

$63M


edit: sorry I was sure I had put the M there, and only 4 Imax tickets! thats some expensive tickets

I'm pretty sure it'll make more than $63, that's like.... 4 IMAX tickets?











Oh, I do amuse myself....

I used to think a $60+ million opening was on the cards. Now though i think it will be much closer to the $40 million mark.

I'm going for an OW of around $45 million.

51 million

I have been swayed from the Watchmen camp the the Monsters v. Aliens camp (unless I take both) in non-January leagues (Monsters gets cut off). I think it'll put out approximately the same stats (maybe better if Fast & Furious is more Tokyo than original) and it is cheaper. I'm just starting to think its getting closer to Ghost Rider and further away from X-Men, financially speaking, just because its less mainstream. The biggest Alan Moore so far is V for Vendetta at $70-some million and though it'll pass it in 2-3 weeks, I don't think it'll hit $150.

I'm going with $61 million.

$71 million. If this doesn't pass 300's opening, then it's official that the recent box office upswing was only a fluke.

Beyond comic geeks, Watchmen definitely doesn't have the level of anticipation of 300.

i WANT it to be huuuuuuuuuuuge--but i'm gonna throw a prediction of $42,527,198 into the ring

Buscemi wrote:$71 million. If this doesn't pass 300's opening, then it's official that the recent box office upswing was only a fluke.

I wouldnt call two huge months, which are usually the lowest of the year, a fluke just because one movie fails deliver on its hype, and there is a lot of hype but not quite as much as 300.

75M is my guess, which is exactly what it is tracking at. I've had that number pegged for more then 2 weeks now.

I'm going with $56 Million

I'm going to guess 65M. In a world where a Tyler Perry movie opens at 40+M, I just don't see how Watchmen doesn't open much much higher than it. It's trailer was shown in front of the second biggest film of all time, and it has a huge amount of hype (E-Talk, a Canadian mainstream entertainment show is doing a Watchmen week, promoting it every single day).

I'm pretty sure that Watchmen is a much more well known than 300 ever was (plus I read somewhere that since its debut trailer it has been selling really well at a lot of retailers), so I think it has a chance to open much bigger than 300 has, but I'll go with 65M - The early negative reviews could hurt it.

Also the fact that 300 was terrible, well, that could also effect people seeing this Zach Snyder movie. I'd avoid it if I didn't love the graphic novel so much.

300 was awesome. Watchmen may be a more popular comic, but 300's trailer was better and had more people buzzing.

geezer9687 wrote:300 was awesome. Watchmen may be a more popular comic, but 300's trailer was better and had more people buzzing.

I'm not so sure about that. Watchmen's trailer both with Smashing Pumpkins as the soundtrack and with Muse are stunning. I prefer those trailers over 300. And I know there is a lot of buzz going around my work over Watchmen, and there is a group of 8 of us going to the opening night at the IMAX, so I guess that anticipation is pretty high. By the way, I watched 300 again last night to get me in the mood, and it was still very cool.

I'm just talking from my own perspective, surfer.

Then its wrong! [grin]

I believe the FANboy more than the FRATboy.

Zack Snyder has some of the best trailers i've seen.. did we ever figure out if he puts them together himself?

His movies do have some great trailers, I have to say.

Talking about the trailers for Watchmen, perhaps this isn't the thread to bring this up, but does anyone else hate that whenever they mention Zach Snyder in any promotion for this movie, they always precede it with the term "Visionary"? I hated 300 (terrible dialogue, poinless slow-mo, and repetitive action usually only found in a Dynasty Warriors video game), but even if I liked, I'm not sure he earned that kind of praise after two feature length films.

I did like Dawn of the Dead, while it's not as good as the work it's based upon, he certainly made a fine film (the fact that he cast Sarah Polley in the lead made up for the zombies acting like the rage induced creatures from 28 Days Later), which is what gives me hope that he can make at least a fine film with Watchmen (the source material being so good, that even he can't screw it up, and he does know how to make pretty visuals).

I think it's the studio who are pushing his tag of 'visionary director'. I don't think he's been officially labelled one or anything, its just a way of promoting the 'coolness' of his direction.

Yeah, it's the studios promoting their coolness. Guillermo del Toro gets the tag all the time (I still wish that Hellboy III was his next film over The Hobbit).

Wait a minute, was I called a fratboy? If I were in a frat I'd hang myself.