SPEARE'S TIPS: THE FILMS OF 2/6: Push, He's Just Not That Into You, Pink Panther 2, Coraline

We are about to enter the second month of 2009, and I gotta tell you guys, I’m excited. January’s surprising, no, make that astonishing upturn in total box office receipts has given me hope for this year which, I gotta be honest, looked pretty bland on paper a couple of months ago. Gran Torino is all but assured of becoming Clint Eastwood’s biggest film ever (yeah, he’s laughing all the way to the bank, Academy jackasses!), and Paul Blart may well become only the third blockbuster in history for a January release. Things are looking up!

If January is habitually the weakest month of the year, then I almost shudder to think what the coming months will bring. And as the calendar turns to February, I always get a sense of heightened anticipation, because the second month brings with it titles that look cooler, with bigger budgets, better casts and directors, and loads more potential. The question is, will they be able to live up to that potential?

There are four big films hitting theaters on February 6th, and it’s good to see that they all completely different, appealing to virtually every corner of film fandom. We have a superhero fantasy actioner, a bona fide chick-flick romantic comedy, a screwball slapstick comedy, and a macabre-looking Burton-esque animated picture. Something for the guys, something for the girls, and a couple for the youngsters; but can all of them achieve, or will one or more of them fall flat?

I’ve been saying for some time that Push (PG-13) looks a lot like last February’s sci-fi action flick Jumper, and not without reason. They both have that somewhat gritty feel to it, that down-in-the-trenches look that sets them apart from the exalted, mega-budget films based on characters from Marvel or DC comics. I remember going into Jumper with the highest of hopes, but was sorely disappointed by Hayden Christensen’s wooden performance (should’ve known), Samuel L. Jackson’s OTT-ness (REALLY should’ve known), the awful dialogue and the slipshod editing.

Though I am a little more cautious going into see Push, I remain steadfastly optimistic that this one will fare much better, and for several reasons. the cast is much better, the effects look cooler, and it’s being helmed by a director I have twenty times more faith in. Chris Evans (Fantastic Four) plays Nick, a telekinetic who is one of many people with superhuman powers who is on the run from a secret governmental agency known as “Division”. He travels to Hong Kong to find a young woman named Kira (10,000 B.C.’s Camilla Belle) who happens to be the only person who has ever escaped their clutches. Along the way, he meets a 13-year-old clairvoyant named Cassie (Dakota Fanning), and together they try to win the fight against Division, its lead agent (Djimon Hounsou) and his many superhuman minions.

Many might argue that going from Christensen to Evans is not exactly trading up (though those who saw Evans in Sunshine might disagree). But the main reason that I have been pushing (heh) this film so hard is that it’s being directed by Paul McGuigan, the man behind Lucky Number Slevin, which just happened to be my very favorite film of 2006. This is his first major project since then, and I am hoping for a finished project that is a cool thrill-a-minute action ride that leaves me as breathless as Eagle Eye did a few months ago.

On the new February pricing list, Push will run you $20 in the Ultimate leagues and $19 in Box Office. Despite the fact that I think this film has the most widespread appeal of the four films opening on this date, and will win the weekend with between $25 and $30 million, it’s certainly not a sure thing. It’s being advertised well, and a high theater count is what it will need to perform well. But there are three MORE films coming one week later (an action film, a horror film and another chick flick), which means that its total Top 5 tally may not make Push worth its price tag. And with quite a few PTA hopefuls also debuting on this weekend and the next, it may strike out in that category as well. I would say, as I have many times before: watch the tracking, and proceed with caution.

The next film I’ll tackle is He’s Just Not That Into You (PG-13), which, unlike January’s Bride Wars, which barely eked out an average grade on the backs of its two stars, has a lot (and I mean a LOT) of noticeable faces to woo audiences: Scarlett Johansson, Jennifer Aniston, Drew Barrymore (who also co-produced), Jennifer Connelly, Kevin Connolly (no relation), Bradley Cooper, Ginnifer Goodwin, Justin Long and, erm, Ben Affleck. It is based on the self-help book of the same name by Greg Behrendt and Liz Tuccillo (which, in turn, was based on a single line of dialogue from an episode of Sex and the City, thus completing the chick-flick “circle of life”, snark).

I feel so ill-equipped when I talk about movies like this, so I’ll just plagiarize the Wikipedia entry for this film, which “chronicles the misadventures of several individuals in their twenties and thirties (isn’t Aniston 40 yet?). At the core of multiple stories is Gigi (Goodwin), a young woman who repeatedly misinterprets the signs that men give her about their level of interest in her, so she solicits the advise of bar owner Alex (Long), who is much more successful romantically. Other plotlines include: married couple Janine and Ben (Connelly and Cooper), who go through a rough patch when he starts flirting with Anna (Johansson), who in turn is dating Connor (Connolly); and the final story is that of Neil (Affleck) and Beth (Aniston), who have lived together for years but break up when Beth expresses her desire to get married and Neil refuses. (Guess there’ll be no Bennifer 2 coming soon, tabloid readers. Grin.)

Add all that up, and what do you have? Well, with Valentine’s Day right around the corner, and considering that this film seems to play up the “romance” angle far more than next week’s female-centric film Confessions of a Shopaholic, this might be one to keep your eye on. There’s certainly enough of a hunk factor to bring the girls in in droves, and more than enough “babes” to satisfy the dudes that they drag along. Director Ken Kwapis, who helmed the below average License to Wed two summers ago, may have a big sleeper hit on his hands here.

For $15 in Ultimate leagues, this title can be yours, but the same rules apply as with Push: crowded schedule, maybe not a ton of Top 5 or (especially) PTA points to be had. The User Rating might be in the 7.0 range (or it could be as low as 4.5, given how Bride Wars has done), and I’m betting that this film will, with good buzz, find it’s way “into” the $20 million-plus range in its first three days. It may hold on strongly in its second week despite competition from Confessions, but may drop handily after that. $11 in Box Office, on the other hand, is very tempting…

When it was learned that Steve Martin was going to be stepping into the rather large shoes of Peter Sellers in 2006 to reboot the defunct Pink Panther franchise, there were more than a few raised eyebrows. Despite his ludicrously forced attempt at a bad French accent (“Der burger!!”), it had a very respectable run beginning on this exact weekend three years ago: $20 million in its first weekend, with only a 17% drop the following weekend and a total tally of over $82 million. Not bad for a film that was supposed to stall right out of the gate.

And now, Pink Panther 2 (PG) makes its way into theaters, which means ninety more minutes of pratfalls, nut-shots and butchery of the French language (sorry Chien). In this story, Martin’s Inspector Clouseau is sent on holiday by the beleaguered Chief Inspector Dreyfus (with John Cleese stepping in for Kevin Kline), but is called back when the legendary Pink Panther diamond is stolen… again. Along with a team of international specialists (including Andy Garcia, Alfred Molina and Aishwarya Rai), Clouseau must try to retrieve the diamond, along with the Magna Carta, which has also been stolen. Heavens to Betsy!

Look, let’s not kid ourselves: we know exactly what we’re getting with this film. And despite the success of the first one, I predict that Pink Panther 2 will meet with considerably less success. First of all, the competition is stronger: Push, He’s Just Not That Into You, Coraline, The International, Friday the 13th and Confessions of a Shopaholic should prove stronger adversaries than Curious George, Final Destination 3, Firewall, Date Movie and Eight Below, wouldn’t you agree? Couple that with the obligatory Part Two Dropoff, and I think $50-$60 million is the absolute most you can expect from this title.

The price for this movie is $16 in Ultimate (and $14 in Box Office), which, if I’m being honest, was just me hedging my bets when I created the pricing list. I’ve been wrong plenty of times before, and this may be the case again. But I would much rather put my faith in other similarly-priced fare (like He’s Just Not, Friday the 13th and, God help me, Hannah Montana: The Movie) than this one. The Rating will probably be no higher than 6.0, but if that’s a trade-off you can live with, hey go for it!

In 2002, acclaimed author Neil Gaiman penned a story called Coraline, which ended up winning numerous literary awards, including a Hugo and a Nebula, and ended up being compared to Alice in Wonderland because of its surrealism and its alternate-reality plot line. And now, a film - also called Coraline (PG) - is being adapted for the big screen by a man who may be the perfect choice to do so: Henry Selick, a former Tim Burton protégé who was behind the animated hits The Nightmare Before Christmas and James and the Giant Peach.

In the story, an 11-year-old girl named Coraline (voiced by Dakota Fanning, who is having a busy week), unlocks a mysterious door in her new home and finds her way into a parallel universe, where life is much more exciting and fantastical than the humdrum life she currently lives. However, this other dimension also possesses a very dark and sinister secret, and Coraline soon learns that things are not quite so pleasant as they appear. Other voice talents for this film include Teri Hatcher, Ian McShane and Keith David.

Despite its spooky overtones, I would say that this is definitely targeting youngsters in the 10-15 range, which slightly overlaps the demographic for Push, but will, ultimately, fall short of that title in the long run. Despite Coraline’s intriguing premise and trailer, on a weekend this crowded, there’s always one that underperforms, however slightly, and I believe this is the one that will. Granted, there aren’t any other titles for preteens to sink their teeth into until the (ugh) Jonas Brothers movie hits cineplexes three weeks later, so it’s quite possible that this film will, with good reviews, have some legs, but that probably won’t translate into many Top 5 points, and probably no PTA either, which is precisely why it’s priced at only $8 in Ultimate ($9 in Box Office). It is a definite gamble.

My predictions for the weekend of February 6th include a revision from last week’s predictions. You see, I thought that New in Town would probably be released on around 3,000 theaters, and Taken on only 1,500 or so, but now it would appear that the reverse is actually true. If Taken can push its pay past Paul Blart, it may hold on for #1 that week. Which means, for this particular weekend:

1. Push - $27 million
2. He’s Just Not That Into You - $20 million
3. Pink Panther 2 - $17 million
4. Taken - $13 million
5. Coraline - $11 million

Of course, if Gran Torino and/or Slumdog Millionaire continue their impressive post-New Years run, this could factor into the mix as well.

Well, that will do it for this week. Next week, the films coming out Friday, February 13th a.k.a. Valentine’s Eve, which will feature three brand new titles which hope to massacre (heh) box office records: Isla Fisher stars as a compulsive department store junkie in Confessions of a Shopaholic; Clive Owen teams with Naomi Watts in the espionage thriller The International, and, nearly three decades after making his big-screen debut, the immortal Jason Voorhees is back, slashing up less-than-intelligent teenagers with renewed vigor in the reboot of Friday the 13th (think the choice of release dates was a coincidence??)

Don’t forget to get your February slates in, guys!

Interesting slate of films. If Push does really win the weekend, it would put Summit on the map for the rest of the year pretty much. Their films might actually get more theaters.

Push won't even finish in the Top 5. Compared to the other three films that weekend, the film has no appeal. I believe it also is scheduled to open in the least amount of theatres.

If any film does $25-30 million on opening weekend, it will be Pink Panther 2. The last one did well, Steve Martin is a good draw and it's a kids' movie. I wouldn't bet against that.

Ouch.

Parade: Rained On.

Actually, I'm with you on this Shryke. I think it will be a close fight between Push and He's Not That Into You, with Push having worse legs than HNTIY. And those Pink Panther numbers seem about right to me, if not a little low. Coraline I'm afraid, despite looking the best of the weekend, will bomb. I don't see it going much over $35-40m total.

Push looks a bit high, but i do think it'll be battling for 1st with Pink Panther, which I think you have a bit low. It is after all a sequel to a moderate hit.

... But it is a sequel to a movie with awful reviews and I think that could hurt its chances. That and the 2006 movie only made $20m OW anyway.

How I Would Predict The Openers:

Pink Panther 2- $26 million
He's Just Not That Into You- $18 million (but drops will be steep due to Confessions Of A Shopaholic opening a week later)
Coraline- $12 million (advertising hasn't been great but the 3-D should pack them in)
Push- $9 million

silversurfer19 wrote:... But it is a sequel to a movie with awful reviews and I think that could hurt its chances. That and the 2006 movie only made $20m OW anyway.

but look a paul blart

undeadmonkey wrote:

silversurfer19 wrote:... But it is a sequel to a movie with awful reviews and I think that could hurt its chances. That and the 2006 movie only made $20m OW anyway.

but look a paul blart

I try not to. You are correct that movies which are bad still do well, but I think there is a bad taste in the mouth left by the previous one, and that will hinder its performance. And Bousshh, no way in hell does Push only manage $9m. $20m minimum.

Buscemi wrote:How I Would Predict The Openers:

He's Just Not That Into You- $18 million (but drops will be steep due to Confessions Of A Shopaholic opening a week later)

but the week after is valentine weekend, and Confessions doesnt really look like a date movie, I think it'll hold well enough.

silversurfer19 wrote:

undeadmonkey wrote:

silversurfer19 wrote:... But it is a sequel to a movie with awful reviews and I think that could hurt its chances. That and the 2006 movie only made $20m OW anyway.

but look a paul blart

I try not to. You are correct that movies which are bad still do well, but I think there is a bad taste in the mouth left by the previous one, and that will hinder its performance. And Bousshh, no way in hell does Push only manage $9m. $20m minimum.

I wasnt talking about if it was bad or not. I was actually talking about escapism, you know just something that'll let you forget your troubles for a while. I always read these studios saying that during recession movie business picks up, that would definitely explain the biggest january ever.

silversurfer19 wrote:

undeadmonkey wrote:

silversurfer19 wrote:... But it is a sequel to a movie with awful reviews and I think that could hurt its chances. That and the 2006 movie only made $20m OW anyway.

but look a paul blart

I try not to. You are correct that movies which are bad still do well, but I think there is a bad taste in the mouth left by the previous one, and that will hinder its performance. And Bousshh, no way in hell does Push only manage $9m. $20m minimum.

But why $20 million? There are no names in the leads, the trailers haven't had any reaction and the film basically screams low-rent.

All of you guys are just a bunch of Lucky Number Slevin fanboys who want the director to have a hit even though he never will.

$9 million, $10 million tops.

umm... I actually thought Lucky Number Slevin was a piece of crap... sorry shryke

I see Push doing around 19 million opening weekend. It is so similar to Jumper that I think the audience is there, but it will be hurt because Jumper sucked. I think He's Just Not That Into You is going to win the weekend. Followed by Push, then Pink Panther, but the 2 will be very close. Pink Panther sucked, I would hate it if this one actually did well. Coraline grabs 4th and Taken rounds out the top 5.

I can't see Taken doing much of anything either. Sure it's getting 3,000 theatres but it's opening on Super Bowl weekend (not a good time to open action movies) and the film has been out for so long in foreign markets that it's easy to import or download. Despite the fact that the other two films opening (The Uninvited and New In Town) are in fewer theatres, they are easier bets since they appeal the audiences that won't be watching the Super Bowl (teenage girls and their mothers).

undeadmonkey wrote:
I wasnt talking about if it was bad or not. I was actually talking about escapism, you know just something that'll let you forget your troubles for a while. I always read these studios saying that during recession movie business picks up, that would definitely explain the biggest january ever.

Speaking of recessions, I wonder how the current economic climate (in the US) will effect the OW and domestic total of Confessions of a Shopoholic. Being unfamiliar with the book, I can only plead ignorance but what I gathered from the posters and trailers is that there is this chick that is obsessed with buying expensive brand name clothes. Not so sure how Ma and Pa Sixpack would feel about watching someone throw away money when they barely have any. Anyways, sociology class is over.

Buscemi wrote:I can't see Taken doing much of anything either. Sure it's getting 3,000 theatres but it's opening on Super Bowl weekend (not a good time to open action movies) and the film has been out for so long in foreign markets that it's easy to import or download. Despite the fact that the other two films opening (The Uninvited and New In Town) are in fewer theatres, they are easier bets since they appeal the audiences that won't be watching the Super Bowl (teenage girls and their mothers).

I agree, it might do something on friday and saturday, if people arent getting ready for their parties, but nothing on sunday. I see Taken opening no higher than third.

Buscemi wrote:But why $20 million? There are no names in the leads, the trailers haven't had any reaction and the film basically screams low-rent.

All of you guys are just a bunch of Lucky Number Slevin fanboys who want the director to have a hit even though he never will.

$9 million, $10 million tops.

I wouldn't say Chris Evans is a no name lead, I think he is fairly well known from the Fantastic Four series. And I haven't even seen Lucky Number Slevin. And I suspect there are more cinema goers who do not download than do. And even then, I'm sure some of the guys who did download it would go and see it in the theatres now it has been released.

Has Chris Evans ever had top billing in a film? Yes. Did those films make any money? No. And I bet that the average American filmgoer when asked about Chris Evans, they would tell you "Who the fuck is Chris Evans?" He may be familiar but he's nothing more than one of those "that guys".

And downloading or not, people still won't care about Push. In fact, that's another problem. The title. The title is bland and it tells you nothing about the film. A better title would have been Young Telephatic Actors With Little Talent Trying To Get You To See A Indie-Made Ripoff Of Jumper, An Already Bad Movie That Didn't Need A Ripoff In The First Place.

Ok, I guess we'll just have to wait and see. But I think there is definitely a market for this one (I have friends and have been on many other forums where the movie is the only one they are looking forward to till Watchmen), and I think it will easily break your $10m top bracket.

Did 'Not Another Teen Movie' make any money? I don't remember it in theaters, but I do think it's one of the best of the 'spoof' genre. And Chris Evans had top billing there.

Buscemi wrote:And downloading or not, people still won't care about Push. In fact, that's another problem. The title. The title is bland and it tells you nothing about the film. A better title would have been Young Telephatic Actors With Little Talent Trying To Get You To See A Indie-Made Ripoff Of Jumper, An Already Bad Movie That Didn't Need A Ripoff In The First Place.

Jeez! Climb down from your tree, there, Harsh Monkey. Have early reviews of this film been that bad? Have there even been any early reviews?

I bet you that they don't even screen it to critics.

Shrykespeare wrote:

Buscemi wrote:And downloading or not, people still won't care about Push. In fact, that's another problem. The title. The title is bland and it tells you nothing about the film. A better title would have been Young Telephatic Actors With Little Talent Trying To Get You To See A Indie-Made Ripoff Of Jumper, An Already Bad Movie That Didn't Need A Ripoff In The First Place.

Jeez! Climb down from your tree, there, Harsh Monkey. Have early reviews of this film been that bad? Have there even been any early reviews?

I dont like my name being used to address other people, JK. I agree with the majority though, Summit has made some money, they've advertised this movie well. It will at least make $17 million, which i see as the floor for opening weekend.