Steve Mason's Column

OKay, here is the first of Steve's column's posted on Big Hollywood since FM closed down. Barca, would you be able to create a new topic in the Advice Column page and move this there?

GOLDEN GLOBE FORECAST: ‘Benjamin Button’ and ‘Slumdog Millionaire’ should be lead Best Picture - Drama field; Streep and Seymour Hoffman are possible double-nominees; ‘Milk’ and ‘Gran Torino’ surging with voters!
by Steve Mason

The Golden Globe nominees will be announced this Thursday, December 11 at 5am Pacific. Announcement day for the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is always the official start of the Academy Award season, and the stakes are very high for pictures and performances that need that Golden Globe shine to stay alive in the race for an Oscar.
I reserve the right to update these predictions in advance of nomination morning, but as of today (December 8 ), here’s my shot at picking the nominees along with some analysis.

BEST PICTURE - DRAMA
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount)
Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight)
Gran Torino (Warner Bros)
Milk (Focus)
The Dark Knight (Warner Bros)

ANALYSIS: Benjamin Button is the only true lock here, and Danny Boyle’s Slumdog Millionaire, especially with its international flavor, is a near lock. My sense is that both Gran Torino and Milk are surging. Warner Bros has just moved up the release date for what may be Clint Eastwood’s final star vehicle and Gus Van Sant’s biopic documenting the life of gay rights advocate Harvey Milk seems even more timely in the shadow of the passage of Prop 8 in California. I am a strong supporter of The Dark Knight, which has been an international box office sensation and, in my mind, is for Christopher Nolan what The Departed was for Martin Scorsese. Sam Mendes’ Revolutionary Road (Paramount), Frost/Nixon (Universal) and Doubt (Miramax) are also possibles (although they feel more like great acting pieces). If the nominations go this way, it’ll be the end of the Best Picture road for films like The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight), Eastwood’s other film Changeling (Universal) and the quixotic Baz Luhrmann epic Australia (Fox). The fact that both W. (Lionsgate) and Rachel Getting Married (Sony Classics) have been categorized as dramas by the HFPA virtually eliminates them from Best Picture contention. If you’re looking for a sleeper here, it may be The Reader (Weinstein). Bob and Harvey managed a Best Picture nomination for The Great Debaters last year, so they have worked their magic on the foreign press before.

BEST PICTURE – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Mamma Mia (Universal)
Sex and the City (Warner Bros)
Burn After Reading (Focus)
Tropic Thunder (Dreamworks/Paramount)
Synecdoche, New York (Sony Classics)

ANALYSIS: HFPA voters will find it impossible to ignore the Broadway-to-big screen adaptation of Mamma Mia and the HBO-to-big screen adaptation of Sex and the City – especially in a year with a weak crop of comedy and musical contenders. The Coen Brothers black comedy Burn After Reading may be the picture to beat in this category, and the over-the-top big budget movie-within-a-movie satire Tropic Thunder seems like a good bet for a nomination. The last nomination will likely go to a smaller film. My guess is Charlie Kaufman’s directorial debut Synecdoche, New York will round out the category over Last Chance Harvey (Overture) and Happy-Go-Lucky (Miramax) from legendary British director Mike Leigh.

BEST ACTOR - DRAMA
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon (Universal)
Sean Penn, Milk (Focus)
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount)
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight)
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino (Warner Bros)

ANALYSIS: This is the most crowded and difficult-to-judge category of the year. The sure things seem like Langella, Penn, Pitt and Rourke. I say Eastwood squeezes out longtime character actor Richard Jenkins for The Visitor (Overture) and Rev Road’s Leonardo DiCaprio. My hunch is that both Hugh Jackman for Australia and Benicio Del Toro for Che (IFC Films) will be left out in the cold. Josh Brolin’s representation attempted to position him in the Best Actor – Comedy or Musical category for his turn as W. (Lionsgate), but the HFPA determined that it would compete as a drama. Bad news for Brolin because I don’t forsee him making the cut in this field. It’s also hard to see Will Smith’s turn in Seven Pounds (Sony) cracking the top 5.

BEST ACTOR – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Dustin Hoffman, Last Chance Harvey (Overture)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Synecdoche, New York (Sony Classics)
Ben Stiller, Tropic Thunder (Dreamworks/Paramount)
Rickey Gervais, Ghost Town (Dreamworks/Paramount)
George Clooney, Leatherheads (Universal)

ANALYSIS: This is the weakest category on the board. The two Hoffmans – Dustin and Phillip Seymour – seem very safe picks. Ben Stiller is a big star in a well-reviewed and commercially successful film. The last two are very tough calls. Gervais is a wildly entertaining guy (he saved the Emmy Awards show), and Ghost Town was an artistic success (despite dive-bombing at the box office). I’m putting Clooney in the mix only because he’s Clooney – the kind of guy the HFPA likes having at its party. Will Smith in Hancock (Sony) and Seth Rogen in Pineapple Express (Sony) are both dark horses. I would love to see Jason Segal, who wrote and starred in Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal), or Paul Rudd from the hilarious Role Models (Universal) sneak in, but they may not have Golden Globe caliber public profiles.

BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA
Meryl Streep, Doubt (Miramax)
Kristin Scott Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long (Sony Classics)
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married (Sony Classics)
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount)
Angelina Jolie, Changeling (Universal)

ANALYSIS: There will be no denying Streep this nomination for Doubt (Miramax), and Thomas, Hathaway and Blanchett seem very locked in as well. The final slot is a bit of a toss-up, but, again, the HFPA loves stars, which probably eliminates Melissa Leo from Frozen River (Sony Classics). I say that the relatively chilly reception for Australia hurts Nicole Kidman and despite Angelina Jolie’s over-the-top one-note performance in Changeling, the idea of having Pitt and Jolie on the red carpet together will be hard for the HFPA to resist. Kate Winslet will likely be squeezed out, so she’ll be forced to settle for a Supporting Actress nod for The Reader.

BEST ACTRESS – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Tina Fey, Baby Mama (Universal)
Emma Thompson, Last Chance Harvey (Overture)
Sarah Jessica Parker, Sex and the City: The Movie (Warner Bros)
Meryl Streep, Mamma Mia (Universal)
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky (Sony Classics)

ANALYSIS: Streep is a certain double-nominee for her musical turn in Mamma Mia, and there’s no way that Golden Globe voters can resist including Sarah Jessica Parker for SATC and Tina Fey for Baby Mama. The likely winner in this category would have been Anne Hathaway for her brilliant, career-changing performance in Rachel Getting Married, but the HFPA decided that the movie would compete as a drama. That opens the door for Sally Hawkins for her memorable work in Happy-Go-Lucky and probably Emma Thompson for Last Chance Harvey. On the outside looking in are Samantha Morton for Synecdoche, New York and Frances McDormand for Burn After Reading.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk (Focus)
James Franco, Milk (Focus)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt (Miramax)
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight (Warner Bros)
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder (Dreamworks/Paramount)

ANALYSIS: The race is for second with Heath Ledger’s performance in The Dark Knight a sure winner. Seymour Hoffman is potentially a double nominee with a second nod for Doubt. Franco is excellent in Milk along with Brolin’s interesting performance as Dan White in that same film. In any other year, Downey Jr. would be a slam dunk winner, but he will still be a nominee. Other possibles include Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road, Ralph Fiennes in The Reader and John Malkovich in Burn After Reading or Changeling. Aside from Ledger, my favorite supporting male performance of 2008 was Eddie Marsan as the comically psychotic driving instructor in Happy-Go-Lucky, but he’s almost certain to be overlooked.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Doubt (Miramax)
Kathy Bates, Revolutionary Road (Paramount)
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona (Weinstein/MGM)
Rosemary DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married (Sony Classics)
Kate Winslet, The Reader (Weinstein)

ANALYSIS: This may be Winslet’s consolation prize after missing a lead actress nom for Revolutionary Road. Adams, Bates and Cruz seem solid, but I wrestled with the last slot. It could be either DeWitt or co-star Debra Winger from Rachel Getting Married, but I think the former’s role on Mad Men will give her the boost she needs. There may be no room here for Benjamin Button’s Taraji P. Henson or Marisa Tomei from The Wrestler.

BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount)
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight)
Gus Van Sant, Milk (Focus)
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight (Warner Bros)
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon (Miramax)

ANALYSIS: Fincher is a heavy favorite along with Boyle. This is also a great spot for Van Sant and Nolan. The fifth nomination is a crapshoot. Eastwood is getting a push for Changeling, which is a mistake. He would have a puncher’s chance with Gran Torino. I am going with Ron Howard because of his pedigree, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see John Patrick Shanley for Doubt, Stephen Daldry for The Reader or Sam Mendes for Revolutionary Road.

I would have figured Wall-E to be a lock in Best Picture- Musical or Comedy. But then again, isn't there a separate animation category also?

I mean no offense but anyone that puts Adams in for a nomination is ignorant of the source material. Her character is not going to chew up the scenery like many of the other people mentioned. She is upstaged by 3 of her fellow colleagues in the same film. While she might get a golden globe nom, I don't see Oscars in her future.

If Clooney gets nominated for musical/comedy, does anyone else think it'd be better suited for Burn After Reading, and not Leatherheads?

I would love to see this nomination (though it's next to impossible):

Ron Perlman for Best Actor- Musical or Comedy in Hellboy II

Though it's more of an action film, Hellboy is in a way also a comedic character and his performances have been well-received. It's certainly a better pick than Clooney for Leatherheads (though I liked the film, it wasn't Hellboy II and neither was Clooney's performance).

I would like to see (and probably everyone else too):

Mickey Rourke Win, Heath Ledger Win and TDK win.

Though you know they wont

I see two of those predictions happening (and it's not The Dark Knight).

I finally found Steve Mason's column: http://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2008/12/18/final-weekend-tracking-jim-carrey-with-a-slight-edge-over-will-smith-as-yes-man-could-continue-warner-bros-hot-streak-slumdog-millionaire-may-top-4m-while-gran-torino-and-doubt-expand-strongly/

I think he's too low on ToD and 7 Pounds.

Mason's Estimates:

MARLEY & ME surprises with All-Time Christmas Day opening best $13.9M and $53.8M is possible for 4 days!; BENJAMIN BUTTON strong #2 with about $11.1M & targets $45.3M by Monday!; BEDTIME STORIES with $9.75M start; Cruise’s VALKERIE manages $7.35M!
by Steve Mason

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

Christmas Day moviegoers have opted for a lovable lab and the Oscar bona fides of David Fincher’s epic fantasy yarn The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) have been bolstered by a strong opening day. Meanwhile, Adam Sandler’s storytelling and a Hitler-chasing, eye patch-wearing Tom Cruise both connected with moviegoers while the dark graphic comic noir of Frank Miller is a dud.

The biggest box office gift under the Christmas tree belongs to Fox. Marley & Me, based on the tearjerker of a novel by John Grogan, has posted the all-time best Christmas Day opening with a stellar $13.9M, but the good news for Hollywood doesn’t stop there. Paramount’s David Fincher epic Benjamin Button appears to have posted the all-time #2 Christmas Day opening with $11.1M while Adam Sandler’s Bedtime Stories has notched the 5th-best with $10.75M. Even Tom Cruise’s Valkerie (MGM/UA), once thought to be a total disaster, has managed the all-time #11 opening for the movie-friendly holiday with an estimated $7.35M.

ALL-TIME BEST CHRISTMAS DAY OPENINGS
1. Marley & Me - $12.47M (projected)
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - $10.75M (projected)
3. Ali - $10.2M
4. Catch Me If You Can - $9.8M
5. Bedtime Stories - $9.75M (projected)
6. Alien vs. Predator: Requiem - $9.5M
7. Dreamgirls - $8.7M
8. Bedtime Stories - $8.42M (projected)
9. Patch Adams - $8M
10. Cheaper By the Dozen - $7.8M
11. Valkerie - $7.35M (projected)
12. The Talented Mr. Ripley - $6.3M

My Early 4-Day Estimate for Marley & Me is $53.79M, but I will be fascinated to see how word-of-mouth affects its holiday run. I am, personally, a great lover of dogs and am a big fan of Grogan’s novel. (I would argue that my dogs - a 10-year-old rat terrier named Hollis and a 2-year-old beagle Sophie - are worthy of their own novel and movie.) The book, however, reduced me to a blubbering puddle, and, although I haven’t seen the movie yet, I’ve been told that the ending is very tough-to-take. One of my regular studio contacts told me that they think Marley & Me should come with a warning label for parents. Something like, “This movie may induce uncontrollable sobbing among children and dog lovers of all ages.”

Are people in the mood for “a good cry?” Sometimes it’s just what people are looking for. Or, in these challenging economic times, are people seeking purely happy trips to the multiplex? I’m guessing that the word-of-mouth will be a little mixed along these emotional lines, and that could slightly dampen the movie’s performance. Still, I think it is very safe to project something in the $113M range for Marley & Me by the end of the 4-day New Year’s weekend. In a rough year, it will be only Fox’s second $100M grossing movie for 2008 joining Horton Hears a Who.

There is great news for Paramount and David Fincher on this Christmas Day. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is a big hit. Based on an F. Scott Fitzgerald short story, this spiritual tale starring Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett will build on its $11.1M opening day at 2,988 locations. The screen count may be as high as 3,500 with Paramount securing multiple screens at many key locations for the 2 hour 48 minute epic. The film will likely manage about $45.35M in domestic ticket sales over the 4-day Christmas weekend.

Benjamin Button will do very steady business over the next 11 days, and the spectacularly-reviewed film will likely have $100M-$105M in the bank by the end of next weekend. It will continue to hold well through awards season with major nominations at the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards. I strongly believe that this movie is headed for something in the $170M domestic range.

Only 2 of the last 11 Best Picture winners have failed to break through the $100M barrier, including last year’s Coen Brothers thriller No Country For Old Men.

BEST PICTURE WINNERS
2008 – No Country For Old Men - $74.2M
2007 – The Departed - $132.3M
2006 – Crash - $54.5M
2005 – Million Dollar Baby - $100.5M
2004 – Lord of the Rings: Return of the King - $377M
2003 – Chicago - $170.6M
2002 – A Beautiful Mind - $170.7M
2001 – Gladiator - $187.7M
2000 – American Beauty - $130M
1999 – Shakespeare in Love - $100.3M
1998 – Titanic - $600.7M

Academy Awards voters, whether they admit it or not, love big blockbusters, and after last year’s terrible Oscar broadcast ratings, there will be a strong yet silent, push to recognize films that movie-goers all over the country have seen. Benjamin Button is now likely to fit the bill nicely. Wouldn’t an Oscar night showdown between The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and mega-hit The Dark Knight make for a spectacular Academy Awards storyline (although, there’s always a chance that Danny Boyle’s gutty, little indie Slumdog Millionaire could steal the big prize from the big budget studio blockbusters).

#3 Bedtime Stories, also starring Keri Russell, Guy Pearce and the irrepressible Russell Brand from Saving Sarah Marshall, could reach $43.94M in just 4 days. It’s a fine showing, although most experts (including yours truly) thought it would be the weekend’s big winner.. The opening for Sandler is right in line with expectations and on par with his recent hits, although it’s hard to compare a Christmas 4-day opening with a traditional 3-day weekend start.

Technically, the 3-day weekend opening (Friday-thru-Sunday) for Bedtime Stories will likely be along the order of $34.19M or so. Given that Christmas Day is taking a great deal of “steam” out of the picture, that compares favorably to July’s You Don’t Mess With the Zohan ($38.53M opening - $100M cume) and 2007’s I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry ($34.23M opening - $120M cume). Given that Bedtime Stories skews much younger and has family appeal, it should demonstrate great “playability” over the next 11 days, making up the holiday movie-going period. I am projecting that this picture will reach $95M-$100M by the end of next weekend.

Tom Cruise’s Valkerie (MGM/UA) has out-performed industry expectations, and its $7.35M opening day should translate to a 4-day of $29.72M, good for 4th place. Holdover Yes Man (Warner Bros) will round out the top 5 for the long holiday weekend. The Jim Carrey high concept comedy scored about $4.85M on Christmas Day, and the picture could add $20.2M by Monday for a 10-day cume of $47.62.

The only other new wide opening is Frank Miller’s The Spirit (Lionsgate). No Sin City magic here as the movie has stumbled out of the gates with about $3.15M. The 4-day could be a disappointing $13.64M.

I will have updates throughout the weekend including exclusive information about how specialty releases are faring in their expansions.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Marley & Me (Fox) - $13.9M, $3,994 PTA, $13.9M cume
2. NEW – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $11.1M, $3,715 PTA, $11.1M cume
3. NEW – Bedtime Stories (Disney) - $9.75M, $2,649 PTA, $9.75M cume
4. NEW – Valkerie (MGM/UA) - $7.35M, $2,711 PTA, $7.35M cume
5. Yes Man (Warner Bros) - $4.85M, $1,412 PTA, $32.27M cume
6. Seven Pounds (Sony) - $3.8M, $1,378 PTA, $24.46M cume
7. NEW – The Spirit (Lionsgate) - $3.15M, $1,255 PTA, $3.15M cume
8. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) - $2.58M, $1,074 PTA, $55.39M cume
9. Tale of Despereaux (Universal) - $2.1M, $676 PTA, $18.8M cume
10. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) - $2.06M, $821 PTA, $106.44M cume
11. Doubt (Miramax) - $1.2M, $950 PTA, $2.89M cume
12. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $955,000, $1,554 PTA $14.55M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 4-DAY CHRISTMAS WEEKEND ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Marley & Me (Fox) - $53.79M, $15,460 PTA, $53.79M cume
2. NEW – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $45.35M, $15,179 PTA, $45.35M cume
3. NEW – Bedtime Stories (Disney) - $43.94M, $11,939 PTA, $43.94M cume
4. NEW – Valkerie (MGM/UA) - $29.72M, $10,964 PTA, $29.72M cume
5. Yes Man (Warner Bros) - $20.2M, $5,883 PTA, $47.62M cume
6. Seven Pounds (Sony) - $15.34M, $5,563 PTA, $36M cume
7. NEW – The Spirit (Lionsgate) - $13.64M, $5,438 PTA, $13.64M cume
8. Tale of Despereaux (Universal) - $13.03M, $4,194 PTA, $29.73M cume
9. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) - $10.43M, $4,344 PTA, $63.25M cume
10. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) - $8.03M, $3,201 PTA, $112.41M cume
11. Doubt (Miramax) - $6.6M, $5,215 PTA, $8.29M cume
12. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $4.13M, $6,732 PTA $17.73M cume

Son... of... a... BITCH!!!

Bedtime Stories gets beat by Marley & Me AND Benjamin Button???

Unbelievable. It looks like M&M will be this winter's Alvin. Gadzooks.

Well, I guess it's like the man said... nobody knows anything.

Shrykespeare wrote:

Son... of... a... BITCH!!!

Bedtime Stories gets beat by Marley & Me AND Benjamin Button???

Unbelievable. It looks like M&M will be this winter's Alvin. Gadzooks.

Well, I guess it's like the man said... nobody knows anything.

Not even those of us who picked Marley & Me over Bedtime Stories?

I always figured Adam Sandler in a family film was an expensive risk based on his history of raunchy, moronic movies, but I figured it and Marley would be battling it out for the #1 slot. The weekend's not over yet, though.

I'm also very happy with what Valkyrie did on opening day since I had that too. Button's big day is a bit surprising, though, given its running time and creepy trailer.

100% true about Marly and Me, it's a big time tear jerker...my fiance was reduced to a bubling mess by the end...as for me, well, i plead the fifth...

and damn you sandler...damn you to hell...you too keanu!!! i guess i have the super leagues to look forward to.

johnErle wrote:

Shrykespeare wrote:

Son... of... a... BITCH!!!

Bedtime Stories gets beat by Marley & Me AND Benjamin Button???

Unbelievable. It looks like M&M will be this winter's Alvin. Gadzooks.

Well, I guess it's like the man said... nobody knows anything.

Not even those of us who picked Marley & Me over Bedtime Stories?

I always figured Adam Sandler in a family film was an expensive risk based on his history of raunchy, moronic movies, but I figured it and Marley would be battling it out for the #1 slot. The weekend's not over yet, though.

I'm also very happy with what Valkyrie did on opening day since I had that too. Button's big day is a bit surprising, though, given its running time and creepy trailer.

Don't forget that Button's first trailer seemed to give the entire plot away but people always seem to forget the first trailer (I'm looking at The Golden Compass, from a great first trailer to a terrible and way too short final trailer).

And I really can't believe that Valkyrie is doing well especially since just last week Tom Cruise was box office poison and an item for the tabloids (such as the recent "head-slapping" incident) and out of all of the World War II films, it seemed to be the weakest (even weaker than The Reader, which will do nothing in wide release).

This year is ending with a BANG

EXCLUSIVE EARLY ESTIMATES: MARLEY & ME with $9.5M Friday & headed for $24.7M 3-day; Lovable lab could be the #1 live action pooch in box office history; BEDTIME STORIES #2 with $22M followed by BEN BUTTON at $18.1M; DEFIANCE targets $51K PTA while REV ROAD expands and still generates $21K per playdate!
by Steve Mason

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

As is tradition, Hollywood is in a holding pattern for New Year’s weekend. The only real changes from Christmas weekend are the debut Edward Zwick’s Defiance (Paramount Vantage) at two locations, the Dreamworks expansion of Revolutionary Road to 38 playdates and a 398 screen expansion for The Reader (Weinstein), but the three big December 25 blockbusters are holding strong.

The big winner continues to be Fox’s Marley & Me, which posted another $9.5M in sales on its second Friday for a new cume of $92M. The lovable lab will likely grab an estimated $24.7M by Sunday night for a 10-day cume of $107.16M. Marley is Fox’s second-best grossing release of 2008, trailing only March release Horton Hears a Who ($154.5M), This adaptation of John Grogan’s bestselling novel is headed for a possible $160M domestic, so it will ultimately be the studio’s #1 grossing release of the calendar year.

Marley & Me becomes Jennifer Anniston’s second consecutive $100M+ grossing picture, following 2006’s The Break-Up ($118.7M), and her third overall, joining Jim Carrey’s mega-hit Bruce Almighty ($242.8M). Canines continue to have massive box office appeal, but Marley may just be the biggest box office pooch of all time.

ALL-TIME TOP 5 LIVE ACTION DOG MOVIES
1. Marley & Me - $160M cume (projected)
2. Scooby Doo - $153.2M cume
3. 101 Dalmations - $136.1M cume
4. Cats & Dogs - $93.3M cume
5. Beverly Hills Chihuahua - $93.1M cume

After a mildly disappointing start at #3 for the 4-day Christmas period, Adam Sandler’s Bedtime Stories (Disney) has been very steady this week at #2, and it added another $9M on Friday for an expected $22M or so by Monday. That will give the Adam Shankman-directed family film a total haul of $87.1M. I am projecting something in the $130M-$135M, which would be stronger than Sandler’s last three movies – You Don’t Mess with the Zohan ($100M cume), I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry ($120M) and Reign Over Me ($19.6M) – but shy of 2006’s Click ($137.3M cume).

Checking in at #3 for the day and the weekend is David Fincher’s Best Picture front-runner The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount). The Brad Pitt-Cate Blanchett Forrest Gump-like epic coaxed another $6.8M to start the weekend and what could be a possible $18.1M 3-day. If Academy Award voters make the mistake of leaving The Dark Knight out of the Best Picture field, Ben Button will easily be the biggest hit of the final 5. The critically-acclaimed film will have $78.75M in the bank by the end of the weekend, and $170M-$180M domestic is not out of the question as this picture continues to build momentum through awards season.

One of the most surprising nomination snubs of the early part of the awards season was the failure of Cate Blanchett to snag a nod from the Screen Actors Guild voters. With actors as the largest branch of Academy voters, does this signal that Cate could be left out of Hollywood’s big night?

Anne Hathaway, Kate Winslet for Revolutionary Road and Meryl Streep are the sure-thing Oscar nominees. That leaves two slots for a group including Melissa Leo for Frozen River, Changeling’s Angelina Jolie, Sally Hawkins for Mike Leigh’s Happy-Go-Lucky, Kristin Scott Thomas for I’ve Loved You So Long and Blanchett. My hunch is that Hawkins and Scott Thomas will receive Oscar nominations, edging awards season perennials Cate and Angie and indie fave Melissa Leo.

One of the things working against both Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett is a question that movie-goers, critics and pundits are all kicking around. “How much of those performances is acting and how much is make-up, special effects and Fincher’s technical virtuosity?” Anyone who has seen the movie knows what I mean. With the exception of Taraji P. Henson who “pops” off the screen, Benjamin Button is a directors’ movie as opposed to an acting piece. For me at least, it is about the big picture in Fincher’s head more than the work of the brilliant Blanchett and the equally good Pitt.

It is official. Tom Cruise has snatched Valkyrie (MGM/UA) from the jaws of once near-certain box office disaster. The Bryan Singer-directed historical thriller scored about $5.5M on Friday, and that should translate to a $14M weekend for a 10-day cume of $60.65M. The movie won’t get to $100M, but Cruise has dodged another Lions For Lambs-style embarrassment.

Jim Carrey’s Yes Man (Warner Bros), which opened the Friday before Christmas, has continued to perform steadily over the holidays. It will wrap the weekend in fifth place with about $13.9M after a $5.4M Friday. The high concept comedy will have banked just shy of $80M in its first 17 days of release.

The best Per Theatre Average for the weekend belongs to Defiance. This true Holocaust story starring Daniel Craig opened at two locations on New Year’s Eve to about $25,000, picked up $52,000 yesterday and another $38,000 today. The 3-day will be about $102,600 for an impressive PTA of $51K.

Sam Mendes’ Revolutionary Road has expanded successfully to 38 playdates with an expected $800,000 or so for a 3-day PTA of $21K. Meanwhile, the Weinsteins went wider with Golden Globe nominee The Reader (398 screens) with less success. Despite near-certain Oscar nominations for Best Supporting Actress-Kate Winslet and Best Adapted Screenplay, the picture is headed for just $495,000 for the frame and a PTA a tick below $3,500. The Reader will have $3.3M in total sales by Monday morning, but without a couple of Golden Globe wins on January 11, business is likely to remain sluggish.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Marley & Me (Fox) - $9.5M, $2,710 PTA, $91.96M cume
2. Bedtime Stories (Disney) - $9M, $2,443 PTA, $74.1M cume
3. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $6.8M, $2,276 PTA, $67.45M cume
4. Valkyrie (MGM/UA) - $5.5M, $1,980 PTA, $52.15M cume
5. Yes Man (Warner Bros) - $5.4M, $1,573 PTA, $70.87M cume
6. Seven Pounds (Sony) - $4.3M, $1,559 PTA, $54.33M cume
7. Tale of Despereaux (Universal) - $2.7M, $874 PTA, $39.47M cume
8. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) - $2.19M, $938 PTA, $71.64M cume
9. Doubt (Miramax) - $1.8M, $1,399 PTA, $15.51M cume
10. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $1.62M, $2,647 PTA $25.62M cume
11. Twilight (Summit) - $1.61M, $853 PTA, $173.9M cume
12. The Spirit (Lionsgate) - $1.48M, $593 PTA, $15.97M cume
13. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) - $1.26M, $547 PTA, $116.65M cume
14. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $900,000, $10,714 PTA, $7.77M cume
*Milk (Focus) - $590,000, $1,909 PTA, $15.85M cume
*Frost/Nixon (Universal) - $500,000, $2,439 PTA, $5.39M cume
*The Reader (Weinstein) - $495,000, $1,244 PTA, $2.44M cume
*Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $300,000, $7,895 PTA, $689,000 cume
*The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) - $75,000, $4,167 PTA, $1.39M cume
*NEW – Defiance (Paramount) - $38,000, $19,000 PTA, $115,000 cume
*Last Chance Harvey (Overture) - $34,000, $5,667 PTA, $254,000 cume
*Waltz with Bashir (Sony Classics) - $11,000, $2,200 PTA, $88,000 cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Marley & Me (Fox) - $24.7M, $7,047 PTA, $107.16M cume
2. Bedtime Stories (Disney) - $22M, $5,972 PTA, $87.1M cume
3. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $18.1M, $6,058 PTA, $78.75M cume
4. Valkyrie (MGM/UA) - $14M, $5,040 PTA, $60.65M cume
5. Yes Man (Warner Bros) - $13.9M, $4,048 PTA, $79.37M cume
6. Seven Pounds (Sony) - $10.96M, $3,976 PTA, $61M cume
7. Tale of Despereaux (Universal) - $8.1M, $2,621 PTA, $44.87M cume
8. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) - $5.92M, $2,534 PTA, $75.37M cume
9. Doubt (Miramax) - $5.22M, $4,056 PTA, $18.93M cume
10. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $4.29M, $7,015 PTA $28.3M cume
11. Twilight (Summit) - $4.18M, $2,217 PTA, $176.47M cume
12. The Spirit (Lionsgate) - $3.79M, $1,512 PTA, $18.27M cume
13. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) - $3.47M, $1,505 PTA, $118.86M cume
14. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $2.25M, $26,786 PTA, $9.12M cume
*Milk (Focus) - $1.53M, $4,964 PTA, $16.8M cume
*The Reader (Weinstein) - $1.38M, $3,482 PTA, $3.33M cume
*Frost/Nixon (Universal) - $1.3M, $6,341 PTA, $6.19M cume
*Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $800,000, $21,053 PTA, $1.18M cume
*The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) - $270,000, $15,000 PTA, $1.59M cume
*NEW – Defiance (Paramount) - $102,600, $51,300 PTA, $179,600 cume
*Last Chance Harvey (Overture) - $100,000, $16,667 PTA, $320,000 cume
*Waltz with Bashir (Sony Classics) - $35,200 $7,040 PTA, $112,000 cume

Anyone know how Good is doing?

(Aside: I have a new poll question up on TLMR, which I'd love to get everybody's take on.)

Movie City News

Good - 2,800 in 2 theatres

EARLY TRACKING: Kate Hudson-produced BRIDE WARS may hold off MARLEY & ME and GRAN TORINO for weekend win!
by Steve Mason

A year ago, Fox scored a January hit with the female-geared 27 Dresses. The Katherine Heigl vehicle chick-flick opened with $23M on the weekend of January 18 en route to a nifty $76.8M domestic gross. Now Kate Hudson has produced and stars in the wedding-themed comedy Bride Wars, debuting on just over 3,000 screens in Friday.

Early reviews are downright awful for Bride Wars (00% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of Wednesday night), but Kate Hudson is a likable personality whose sub-par rom-com Fool’s Gold opened to $21.5M last February. Add to the mix Anne Hathaway with $100M-grossing movies Get Smart ($130.3M cume) and The Devil Wears Prada ($124.7) on her recent resume, and you’ve got a picture that could win the weekend. Tracking is strong with Under 25’s, and the Mean Girls-style marketing improves the chances that Under 25 Males will allow themselves to be dragged along to see it.

I am anticipated that David Frankel’s Marley & Me (Fox) will make it a 1-2 Fox finish. Based on John Grogan’s beloved memoir, this lovable lab-turned-box office star should paw its way to another $15.16M or so, down about 37% from New Year’s weekend.

Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino has platformed perfectly and looks particularly strong for its wide break. Its Definite Interest number in industry tracking approaches 50 and its First Choice is a couple of ticks below 20, but much of its appeal is older, and it has a strong R rating. I’m forecasting something in the mid-teens and a good solid 3rd place finish, although an upside surprise is certainly possible. It’s not inconceivable that Gran Torino could pull off an upset and win the weekend, but I would be surprised given that it is on 400 or so fewer screens than Bride Wars.

It’s January, which means that there is always room for a horror movie. This week’s supernatural potboiler is David S. Goyer’s The Unborn (Rogue/Universal), from the low budget horror specialists at Platinum Dunes (2003’s Texas Chainsaw Massacre and The Hitcher remake and The Invisible both in 2007). Tracking suggests that the response for this one will possibly be a rather muted $12.35M by Monday.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) and Bedtime Stories (Disney) will battle for the #5 spot, and I am giving Button the slight edge. Fincher’s epic, adapted from an F. Scott Fitzgerald short story, is on an awards carpet ride from now through February, and hardcore movies fans will want to rush out and see Ben Button prior to Sunday night’s Golden Globes ceremony on NBC.

The other wide new release is Bill Duke’s Not Easily Broken (Sony) starring Morris Chestnut and Taraji P. Hemson. Awareness is low and with well fewer than 1,000 screens, the movie is unlikely to top $3.5M.

FINAL PREDICTED WEEKEND GROSSES FOR JANUARY 9-11
1. NEW - Bride Wars (Fox) - $19M
2. Marley & Me (Fox) - $15.16M
3. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $14.63M
4. NEW – The Unborn (Universal) - $12.35M
5. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $11.83M
6. Bedtime Stories (Disney) - $11.06M
7. Valkyrie (UA/MGM) - $9M
8. Yes Man (Warner Bros) - $8.9M
9. Seven Pounds (Sony) - $5.27M
10. Tale of Despereaux (Universal) - $3.7M
11. NEW – Not Easily Broken (Sony) - $3.43M
12. Doubt (Miramax) - $3.32M

PAUL BLART: MALL COP likely to unseat Clint Eastwood as box office champ this weekend; MY BLOODY VALENTINE 3-D is hurt by slow conversion to digital, but could still reach $20M; NOTORIOUS targets $10M!
by Steve Mason

The Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend brings four new wide releases to America’s multiplexes along with one major expansion. The Monday holiday means stronger-than-average business on Sunday and a bonus fourth day of steady sales, especially for younger-skewing movies. The battle for first place appears to pit an overweight security guy on a Segway against Clint Eastwood’s “Get off my lawn” tour de force in Gran Torino (Warner Bros).

Just the fact that 78-year old Eastwood is in the conversation is a stunning upset. The industry expected a mid-teens expansion last weekend for what could be Clint’s final acting performance, and instead, the super-charged Torino tapped into a much larger audience to the tune of almost $30M. As expected, the movie played well with the 50+ crowd (40% of its audience last weekend), but 25% of ticket buyers were under the age of 25. Word-of-mouth is very positive as the political incorrectness of Eastwood’s Walt Kowalski character gives the picture plenty of laughs along with its poignant, redemptive ending.

I am predicting that Gran Torino may add another $25M over the long four-day weekend with a new cume of $77.17M by Tuesday morning. That would make this modestly-budgeted movie, based on Minneapolis native Nick Schenk’s first screenplay, Eastwood’s all-time fourth biggest movie as an actor.

ALL-TIME TOP 5 CLINT EASTWOOD MOVIES
1. In the Line of Fire - $102.3M cume
2. The Unforgiven - $101.1M cume
3. Million Dollar Baby - $100.5M
4. Gran Torino - $77.17M cume (predicted by Tuesday)
5. Space Cowboys - $90.4M cume

With the odds of a Best Actor nomination improving by the day, there is no question that Gran Torino will wind up as Eastwood’s biggest-grossing movie ever with $120M-$125M possible.

This weekend, Eastwood will likely have to settle for second with Kevin James leaving him in a cloud of dust from a Segway. Sony knows how to score with a big, dumb PG-rated comedy, and Paul Blart: Mall Cop seems right on the money. Produced by Adam Sandler, who co-starred with James in 2007’s I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry ($34.2M opening - $120M cume), Mall Cop will not be a critic’s darling, but industry tracking points toward a nice opening in the $26M-$30M range, which will likely be enough to win the 4-day.

My hunch is that My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate), a high tech remake of the 1981 cult horror classic, could scare up enough business for third place. Sources are telling me that the picture is set to open with 2,534 playdates, but only 1,033 will be in 3-D. Although Hollywood has over 30 major 3-D motion pictures on the way, the cost for a movie theatre to add the capability is a huge barrier to adoption.

3-D sounds very old fashioned, but this is not the same cheesy, clunky, ineffective-style 3-D that you may remember (including those glasses made of cardboard with red and blue cellophane). If you have not witnessed the new generation of 3-D, as seen in 2007’s Beowulf ($27.5M opening - $82.2M cume), last year’s Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour movie ($31.1M opening - $65.2M cume) and Bolt ($26.2M opening - $111.8M cume thru Tuesday) from over the holidays, you are truly missing out.

The problem isn’t Real D, the primary 3-D technology component provider. That’s a reasonably inexpensive purchase for theatre chains and independent theatre owners, along with a license fee paid on a per picture basis. The reason that My Bloody Valentine will only be seen in 3-D on 1,033 screens is that in order to show 3-D, a theatre must be upgraded to digital projection.

There is no question that digital projection is the future of the movie business. Traditional projectors, cans of film, building up (and then tearing down) a print will someday be history. No more breaks in a film or scratches on the image you see on the big screen. Digital allows for a crystal clear, perfectly projected image every time, and it arrives to a theatre, for all intents and purposes, via digital file. No film is necessary. But the cost of a digital projection system is about $100,000 per screen.

The major movie chains and the big six studios had a deal for $1 billion in financing in place late last year that would have upgraded as many as 15,000 theatres to digital, but while the parties argued about how much debt the parties would each take on, the economy melted down and the credit markets froze. My Bloody Valentine is the first 3-D title of 2009, but it will quickly be followed by the animated Coraline (Focus) on February 6, Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience (Disney) on February 27 and Monsters & Aliens from Dreamworks Animation coming March 27. And, the year’s multidimensional titles keep coming, culminating with Avatar (Fox) from James Cameron, in his first narrative movie since Titanic. That 3-D outer space epic is budgeted at $200M. How many of America’s 40,000 screens will be equipped with both digital projection and Real-D by December 18? That is a huge question for Cameron, Fox and the movie business in general.

There is progress. Disney’s Bolt, which was released in November, opened on 982 3-D screens, so My Bloody Valentine is the widest modern 3-D opening yet. Most people have pegged this unapologetic R-rated slasher pic for mid-teens, but I believe it has a shot at $20M. If MBV tanks, it may actually slow digital conversion. If the movie out-performs expectations, exhibitors may be more motivated to speed the process and credit may flow a bit more freely to install digital at more theatres more quickly.

I am anticipating that the live action family film Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) will perform well over the 4-day. Early reviews are tepid (42% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of Wednesday night), but after recent hits like Beverly Hills Chihuahua ($94M cume) and Marley & Me ($125M so far), I can say that movies about dogs should never be underestimated, and there is always room for a family film over MLK weekend.

Emma Roberts from Nickelodeon’s Unfabulous, who failed to ignite the 2007 film version of Nancy Drew ($25.6M domestic) stars alongside Jake T. Austin, presently starring in Disney Channel’s Wizards of Waverly Place. They play orphans who secretly take over an abandoned hotel and become caretakers for every impossibly cute stray dog that they can. As long as it’s well-meaning and family-friendly, and by all accounts it is, my prediction is for $18M-$21M.

The Kate Hudson-produced Bride Wars (Fox) will likely round out the top five with something in the $14M range, which will give it just shy of $40M in the bank by Monday night. The commercial success of this movie may help raise co-star Anne Hathaway’s profile just as Oscar voters consider her performance in Rachel Getting Married for Best Actress (nominations will be announced next Thursday, January 22).

Notorious (Fox Searchlight), the new biopic about rapper Biggie Smalls, is garnering decent reviews (53% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), and there is potential for an upside surprise here. Sean “Diddy” Combs is the producer of this hip hop-based movie with newcomer Jamal Woolard in the title role of Notorious B.I.G.. Oscar nominee Angela Bassett plays Biggie’s mom, Independent Spirit Award nominee Anthony Mackie (The Hurt Locker) plays Tupac Shakur and Antwone Fisher’s Derek Luke plays Combs. Limited to 1,600 or so carefully-targeted locations, I am looking for about $10M, but tracking may not fully reflect the audience for this one.

Finally, Edward Zwick’s Defiance (Paramount Vantage), the PTA champ for the past two weekends, will expand to about 1,500 playdates, but there doesn’t appear to be much upside here. Despite being named one of the top ten films of 2008 by the National Board of Review, this film has received choppy reviews (53% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and has failed to muster much in the way of awards potential. My prediction a possible $7.31M or so.

FINAL WEEKEND 4-DAY MLK WEEKEND PREDICTIONS FOR JANUARY 16-19
1. NEW - Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $29.6M
2. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $25M
3. NEW - My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) - $20.5M
4. NEW - Hotel For Dogs (Paramount) - $19.74M
5. Bride Wars (Fox) - $13.78M
6. NEW - Notorious (Fox Searchlight) - $10M
7. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $8.21M
8. Defiance (Paramount Vantage) - $7.31M
9. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $7.38M
10. The Unborn (Rogue) - $6.93M
11. Marley & Me (Fox) - $6.62M
12. Bedtime Stories (Disney) - $5.28M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: Besson & Morel set to score with TAKEN which could top $20M; PAUL BLART: MALL COP set to pass $80M domestic while THE UNINVITED seems headed for $12.5M; Zellweger’s NEW IN TOWN may open softly!
by Steve Mason

In 2006, Magnolia released the French sci-fi action thriller District B13, written and produced by Luc Besson and directed by his longtime collaborator Pierre Morel. The US domestic engagements grossed an estimated $1.2M, but previously, the movie delivered a solid $6.9M in France as Banlieue 13 in 2004.

The movie features some truly unique action sequences, and failed to connect with American audiences because it is a classic “tweener” – too arty for mainstream theatres while being too action-driven for the arthouse crowd. (Put this one in your Netflix cue.) District B13 is the kind of movie that makes you say, “What are those guys going to do next?”

The answer is Taken (Fox), debuting in wide release on Friday. Co-written by Besson and directed by Morel, the movie stars Oscar nominee Liam Neeson (Kinsey, Batman Begins) as a retired spy who tries to save his kidnapped daughter. The movie is scoring both with critics (58% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and with movie-goers (nice numbers in pre-release industry tracking). Taken will likely win this Super Bowl 3-day with a possible $21M.

Kevin James’ Segway seems pretty unstoppable, and the former King of Queens star is one-man publicity machine. James is making the rounds here in Tampa, pushing Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) with all of the assembled TV and radio stations. (I am covering the Super Bowl for 710 ESPN Radio in Los Angeles.) Made for just $26M, this Adam Sandler produced comedy seems headed for a possible second-place finish with $13.2M and a new domestic cume of about $82M. The world better start getting ready for Paul Blart: The Sequel.

The Uninvited (Dreamworks/Paramount) is the latest in the first quarter horror logjam, following The Unborn ($39.6M cume), My Bloody Valentine 3-D ($39M cume) and Underworld: Rise of the Lycans ($23.4M cume) and preceding Warner Bros’ Friday the 13th (February 13). A remake of the 2003 South Korean supernatural thriller (released in the US as A Tale of Two Sisters), The Uninvited should have a respectable opening. As usual, tracking is tough to interpret when it comes to the horror genre, but this one could reach $12.5M.

Clint Eastwood will likely spend another weekend in the top five with Gran Torino (Warner Bros). The movie is now his all-time biggest grossing title topping his previous-best In the Line of Fire, and it may drop a mere 36% from last weekend to $10.4M. Meanwhile the aforementioned Underworld: Rise of the Lycans, the Kate Beckinsale-less Underworld prequel, will suffer a steeper drop. The vampires vs. werewolves origins story may drop about 50% to $10.35M or so.

The other wide release is the terribly-reviewed Renee Zellweger romantic comedy New in Town (Lionsgate). As of Wednesday night, the movie is at just 11% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, and the most entertaining description is from Slant Magazine’s Nick Schrager who says it’s “like the odious stepchild of Fargo.” Counter-programming the Super Bowl with a female driven rom-com seems like a good idea, but $6.5M seems to be the ceiling for this one.

FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF JANUARY 30
1. NEW – Taken (Fox) - $21M
2. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $13.2M
3. NEW - The Uninvited (Paramount) - $12.5M
4. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $10.4M
5. Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (Sony) - $10.35M
6. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $9.5M
7. Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $8.5M
8. NEW - New in Town (Lionsgate) - $6.5M
9. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $5.9M
10. My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) - $5.7M
11. Bride Wars (Fox) - $4.25M
12. Inkheart (Warner Bros) - $4.2M

Dang he expects Taken to have that kind of opening on Superbowl weekend?!

That would make it 3rd highest superbowl opener ever.

Apparently Steve didn't see Bride Wars' reviews (Wasn't the Tomatometer for that one 0%?). That made $20 million opening. I think New In Town could manage $10 million since it's the only chick flick out and the ladies will need something to do while their husbands are getting piss-drunk watching a boring game.

Buscemi wrote:Apparently Steve didn't see Bride Wars' reviews (Wasn't the Tomatometer for that one 0%?). That made $20 million opening. I think New In Town could manage $10 million since it's the only chick flick out and the ladies will need something to do while their husbands are getting piss-drunk watching a boring game.

They'll be watching the commercials. Everyone watches the Super Bowl.

I really don't get the whole Super Bowl weekend sucks thing. Its not like people are going to be busy all of Friday and Saturday. If people want to see a movie, they will go see it one of the other two days of the weekend

Seriously, I don't understand. I mean, do you guys do nothing at all on Sunday except lounge around and watch Super Bowl. I couldn't imagine an entire day wasted over a game of American Football (well, any sport for that matter). Does it really take over the entirety of US citizens lives? I couldn't imagine an entire country shutting down over something like that.